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[mollipen]

It's weird.. it's like we're watching this whole process occur in real time. God bless the internet

Yeah, this really is the most interesting part. At this point, lord knows what the situation could be an hour from now. Just a few days ago, we were wondering if this time next year we'd have a winner or not. Now we don't even know what the situation might be tomorrow.

 

[Mr. Banana Grabber]

Check out the Dave Matthews Band BD. 24-bit/96khz lossless audio awesomeness.

Is that a BD of a concert or do they really allocate 2 gigs to a song?

 

[Laurent]

Is my logic really that flawed? Help me out here someone!

What logic? The Transformers example? Makes perfect sense...

 

[avaya]

Major remaining HD-DVD exclusive companies

Consumer Electronics:

Toshiba
NEC (Redundant, sold optical business to Sony in NEC Optiarc JV)

PC Industry

Acer
Lenovo
Fujitsu

All drives supplied by TSST, Toshiba-Samsung optical JV - This can also be Toshiba’s out into Blu-ray if they so wish.

Microsoft (are they really an exclusive supporter? VC-1…)

Intel went neutral sometime ago.

Content Providers

NBC Universal
Viacom
Pony-Canon
Weinstein (AWOL)

 

[plagiarize]

Is that a BD of a concert or do they really allocate 2 gigs to a song?

the size of a BD disk is enough to have lossless high resolution sound. you can put an album on one at ridiculously high fidelity, and still have ample room for an equal amount of video.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Opus, the only thing wrong in the slant.

1) Almost no competing formats get a shot to go head-to-head with no advantages. Betamax vs VHS is a significant exception. Even there, I assume there were some studios only publishing on one.

2) Even though the studios may have determined the winner, you haven't asked the question of why the studios chose the way they did. At least some saw that BD players sold well despite a price disadvantage, and a competing PS3.

 

[SRG01]

I wouldn't quite word it as such.

When a studio determines that Transformers for example can only be purchased on HD-DVD, what choice does that give to a Blu-Ray owner? The only decision he can make is to buy an HD-DVD player.

If however it was available on both formats, and the Blu-Ray version outsold the HD-DVD version 2:1, that is a consumer decision.

But therein lies the catch: noteable films, such as 300, sold consistently better on BD than on HD-DVD.

There's also another point on unified hardware standards that I want to make, but I need to go have lunch.

 

[borghe]

For SW, BD has outsold HD DVD 2:1 in the US, 3+:1 in Europe 10+:1 in Japan for a year.

we covered this like 10 pages ago. SW sales are irrelevant when trying to point out the consumer choice. When you have Fox, Disney and Sony exclusively propped up against Universal and Paramount, guess which format is going to receive the most sales. To put it another way, if HD-DVD had Fox, Disney, and Sony exclusive and BRD had Universal and Paramount, do you think consumers would have made the same choice to go with BRD?

The comparisons to betamax are moot. Beta and VHS had virtually identical major studio support backing and releases backing them. Consumers didn't have to make their decision based on what they wanted to watch. They had to make it based on the format itself. That's not the case here.

So were BRD sales always over? Of course. But was that because the consumer made a sound decision on what format they were going with based on the tech specs of the format? No, it was made based on what studio was where, WHICH was a decision made in the board rooms.

The only real choice available to consumers was which movies would they be more willing to live without. It had nothing to do with the format or hardware.

1) Almost no competing formats get a shot to go head-to-head with no advantages. Betamax vs VHS is a significant exception. Even there, I assume there were some studios only publishing on one.

very true.. however I would argue that in this case, studio support wasn't an advantage of the "competing format" as much as like has been said, corporate politics. HD-DVD didn't lose to BRD, Uni and Paramount lost to Disney, Fox, and Sony.

2) Even though the studios may have determined the winner, you haven't asked the question of why the studios chose the way they did. At least some saw that BD players sold well despite a price disadvantage, and a competing PS3.

It is a chain reaction. BRD had more of the must have titles. The price difference was meaningless considering you couldn't use one of those cheaper players to watch, say, Spider-Man 3.

 

[kaching]

Is my logic really that flawed? Help me out here someone!

My dispute with your logic is not that studios played a part in deciding the outcome but that they seem to be the only ones who decided this according to your logic, aka the consumer had no influence at all. Am I misreading you?

Edit: I think I'm reading you right, because borghe reminds that you and he refuse to acknowledge abstinence as a "real" choice, which is where your logic breaks down. Give me a logical explanation why abstaining isn't a real choice in a luxury market, because I haven't heard one yet, I've just seen refusal to accept it.

 

[VanMardigan]

If Warner had convinced Fox to join them on HD DVD, would things have collapsed this quickly for the BDA?

 

[dallow_bg]

I need to hurry up and sell my BD copies of Shooter and The Untouchables, both from Paramount, before they are released again!

(check ebay prices to see what i mean)

 

[borghe]

If Warner had convinced Fox to join them on HD DVD, would things have collapsed this quickly for the BDA?

without a question. if HD-DVD had essentially 65-70% of the market exclusive, this exact same turn of events would be going on at the BDA camp.

Probably not... Because BRD have been leading the sales for quite some time, the outcome of this war would have been significantly slower to appear...

arrggghh.. come on people, use common sense! WHY were software sales lopsided? Because it was exclusive. If Fox went exclusive with Warner to HD-DVD, every single one of those Simpsons, Ocean's Thirteen, etc sales would have instantly gone to HD-DVD. well, not instantly, but if HD-DVD had 70% of the market, I promise you things would have dried up similar to this.

 

[Laurent]

If Warner had convinced Fox to join them on HD DVD, would things have collapsed this quickly for the BDA?

Probably not... Because BRD have been leading the sales for quite some time, the outcome of this war would have been significantly slower to appear...

 

[Mr. Banana Grabber]

the size of a BD disk is enough to have lossless high resolution sound. you can put an album on one at ridiculously high fidelity, and still have ample room for an equal amount of video.

I get that. These questions aren't for practicality. I doubt that a BDA would sound any better than DVDA (snickers) or SACD on my Onkyo HTiB but the nerd inside me wants to know how gluttonous we can be in our audio mastering.

 

[msdstc]

If Warner had convinced Fox to join them on HD DVD, would things have collapsed this quickly for the BDA?

not AS fast. The thing is HD-DVD has been teetering on the edge for a long time. I think bluray losing both warner and fox would be a severe enough blow to end this for sure, but there would still be ps3s, bluray has better name recognition, it has more support from hardware companies, etc. HD-DVD has always been like a thorn in HD medias side though, had it just been blu-ray all along things would be much farther along.

On that note, did anybody ever expect it to end this soon?

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Am I misreading you?

No. I don't think it was only the studios that lead to this outcome, but their decisions greatly influenced the consumers choices.

For the record I would argue exactly the same point had HD-DVD won.

 

[borghe]

No. I don't think it was only the studios that lead to this outcome, but their decisions entirely determined the consumers choices.

fixed. n choice in this format war was based on the format itself but simply what studios back what format.

 

[plagiarize]

If Warner had convinced Fox to join them on HD DVD, would things have collapsed this quickly for the BDA?

for one, Fox haven't exactly played a big part in the 2:1 sales last year going AWOL for the majority of it. that didn't slow Blu-Ray sales.

probably in the long run it would have mattered as it would have tipped the balance of important releases to HD-DVD, but Fox... i'd bet if you took all their blu-ray sales, subtracted them from the blu-ray total and added them to the hd-dvd total that blu-ray would still have a comfortable lead.

 

[polyh3dron]

No. I don't think it was only the studios that lead to this outcome, but their decisions greatly influenced the consumers choices.

Chicken, meet Egg.

 

[Laurent]

New chart on Wikipedia... It's weird to see Universal neutral; I guess that they are taking the fact that this studio didn't renew is exclusivity contract in consideration...

Chart name: Major US film distributors' format support starting June '08
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray

 

[plagiarize]

On that note, did anybody ever expect it to end this soon?

i didn't. i've regularly been telling people that it won't be as over as quickly as they expected, and up until the Warner switch i'd been pretty happy with maintaining that for over a year.

but i call it like i see it, and the Warner switch was D-day. sure, there's still a lot to be done before the war is officially over, but we'll look back and say that that was the day the war was won.

 

[borghe]

Chicken, meet Egg.

not at all, because aside from this one single decision by warner, no other studio decision was made based on consumer sales. they were based either on moneyhats or belief on what the format's technology could bring (or region coding). Warner is the only studio out of all of this who based their decision on consumer demand.

 

[kaching]

Let's say there was only one HDM format launched with 100% studio support. Would success have been guaranteed?

 

[Mifune]

Why are people talking about Fox going over to HD-DVD along with WB like it was ever a possibility? Companies being outsold 2:1 by their direct competitors don't woo those competitors' exclusive supporters all willy nilly and shit.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Chicken, meet Egg.

Not quite that simple, the blue chicken laid one egg whilst the red chicken was constipated

 

[plagiarize]

Why are people talking about Fox going over to HD-DVD along with WB like it was ever a possibility? Companies being outsold 2:1 by their direct competitors don't woo those competitors' exclusive supporters all willy nilly and shit.

it was just a hypothetical.

 

[borghe]

Let's say there was only one HDM format launched with 100% studio support. Would success have been guaranteed?

definitely. people want HD, they really do. Yes a year or so ago many people thought their HDTVs automatically made their DVDs HD, but this past year and this holiday season especially, CEs and cable co's made sure to let people know DVD was not HD. Starting this year the mass market would have realized that and with a singular format to migrate to, success would have been imminent.

fortunately we still have that scenario now, especially considering how fast everyone is moving since warner announced it.

Why are people talking about Fox going over to HD-DVD along with WB like it was ever a possibility? Companies being outsold 2:1 by their direct competitors don't woo those competitors' exclusive supporters all willy nilly and shit.

it's just talking about how people made their choices based on where the titles lay, not based on what format they would rather have gone with. had fox gone to HD-DVD (even if it was like a .001% chance), this same turn of events would have started in the blu-ray camp, albeit possibly slower.

 

[Mifune]

Understood. I thought maybe I missed the latest twist in this unfolding saga.

 

[VanMardigan]

Why are people talking about Fox going over to HD-DVD along with WB like it was ever a possibility? Companies being outsold 2:1 by their direct competitors don't woo those competitors' exclusive supporters all willy nilly and shit.

Well, Warner going HD DVD exclusive would've been a big consideration for Fox. Certainly enough on its own to wipe out the 2-1 software edge. Enough that Sony felt they had to pay them to keep them on the Blu side.

I'm sure the details will come out in time, but it wouldn't surprise me if it was actually a very real possibility at some point in late November/early December.

 

[Lord Error]

So were BRD sales always over? Of course. But was that because the consumer made a sound decision on what format they were going with based on the tech specs of the format? No, it was made based on what studio was where, WHICH was a decision made in the board rooms.

It's not quite like that though. Time and again, day and date multi format releases were selling better on BRD. There was maybe one exception to this rule (Planet Earth) at least early in it's sales life.

 

[Laurent]

Let's say there was only one HDM format launched with 100% studio support. Would success have been guaranteed?

HDTV are getting cheaper by the minute, so eventually, yes it will be mainstream... It's not as obvious as Black & White TV sets vs. Color TV sets but it's a significant update to the average consumer eye...

Are you saying that this war helped soaring HD sales? That a unified HD medium wouldn't have been that successful? Maybe...

 

[borghe]

It's not quite like that though. Time and again, day and date multi format releases were selling better on BRD. There was maybe one exception to this rule (Planet Earth) at least early in it's sales life.

I honestly believe this has SOLELY to do with the PS3. I think the market data on people using their PS3's to watch movies is completely for shit, and a lot more do than the market is aware if. but I think if you were to compare (which of course is impossible) sales of movies to stadalone users, the multi-format releases wouldn't have been as skewed as they were. I mean look at 300, the thing is practically a non-interactive PS3 game already.

of course, that has nothing to do with the price of salt in brazil... I'm just saying this war was possibly not as lopsided as simple sales ratios and standalone sales ratios would imply. of course today here and now that doesn't mean jack nor shit.

 

[Jim]

Dave Vaughn (the leaker of the Nielsen #s lately), and usually staunch HD-DVD supporter is sorta corroborating the Bill Hunt - Digital Bits stuff. Those 2 are usually like arch-enemies.

Guys...there is truth to what Bill is saying here. I have heard the same thing from some of my sources.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=973121
(edit: and then the thread was deleted. hah)

 

[StoOgE]

It's not quite like that though. Time and again, day and date multi format releases were selling better on BRD. There was maybe one exception to this rule (Planet Earth) at least early in it's sales life.

but you have to admit, losing both WB and Fox would have probably been enough to make Disney think about at least going neutral. Sony would have probably held out longer (which is why BRD was allways the likely candidate for a 1 format future, and HDDVD surviving was a dual format answer)

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Borghe, you get the Omega, but miss the Alpha. Studios chose the format initially for market reasons as well. It was up the HD-DVD group to change their minds, and despite lower prices and a more aggressive release schedule of movies, Blu-ray prevailed as expected. The studios may have decided it, but it's been the HD-DVD group's contentional all along that the features and price would be more important. They were wrong.

This was more features/price vs content as anything, and that was clear from before Blu-ray hit the street.

Other than Betamax, what other format had a neutral starting line? Not DiVX cs DVD, not DAT vs Minidisc, not any of the videogame console formats, not SACD vs HD-audio.

 

[msdstc]

Let's say there was only one HDM format launched with 100% studio support. Would success have been guaranteed?

For sure. I mean sales have ramped up so much in the past months. I know amazon is not a good indicator, but it will give you an idea. On product wars having 3 titles in the top 100 was amazing back then, if I remember at one point it was like the prestige, casino royale and some other movie and people were impressed. When ps3 first came out they didn't sell blu-rays anywhere around me except at comp USA they had 1 copy of the 5th element. Now every store I goto like say target, walmart, etc. has a demo stand up and a nice big selection.

So it's come a LONG way in a year as we all know. The thing about that though is not one format has had the spotlight to be recognized, so people can get confused. When there's only one format big electronic retailers like Best Buy can really inform people of the advantages. Also people are scared to adopt an unproven format (for the same reasons people are pissed they bought HD-DVD now), now that the war is decided people can be confident with their purchase, and advertising can be dedicated to one side.

 

[StoOgE]

Dave Vaughn (the leaker of the Nielson #s lately), and usually staunch HD-DVD supporter is sorta corroborating the Bill Hunt - Digital Bits stuff. Those 2 are usually like arch-enemies.

not shocked by this. As soon as WB went, I knew it was a matter of time. The sooner the better at this point. End the format war and we can all move on. In the end, I got BD 1.1 which mas my chief complaint. I'm still not huge on BD+ and hope that BDlive takes off, but I can deal with this. I'll likely be happier in the long run being able to go to the movies and not worry about whether I can buy that movie when I get home.

I just need to come up with 500 bucks for a BRD player.

 

[Crisco]

"Right again, motherfuckers"

 

[kaching]

Careful, borghe, I didn't simply say HD, I said one HDM format, which has been parlance for the two competing disc formats around here. HD movies can be delivered in any number of ways. The question is whether a consolidation to one disc format before the fact (i.e. no war to begin with) guaranteed that format's success.

 

[xS1TH L0RDx]

so wait, can someone please clarify this shit for me?

am i correct in thinking that it's been confirmed that Paramount is backing out of their contract and going blu exclusive, and universal is following suit?

sorry to be a pain, but i appreciate any and all help

 

[VictimOfGrief]

In other news.... I told my parents that HD DVD was going away and she responded with.... "Does that mean our HGTV TV set won't work?" :lol

You know I'll have to say, even though I was furious at first, I'm slowly getting over it. I'm not going to grow my HD DVD library as much but will pick up the exclusives and odds and ends and keep my collection.

My first Blu purchase though is today. 3:10 to Yuma will be mine.

 

[Mmmkay]

Dave Vaughn (the leaker of the Nielsen #s lately), and usually staunch HD-DVD supporter is sorta corroborating the Bill Hunt - Digital Bits stuff. Those 2 are usually like arch-enemies.

Okay, now I'm starting to believe.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

so wait, can someone please clarify this shit for me?

am i correct in thinking that it's been confirmed that Paramount is backing out of their contract and going blu exclusive, and universal is following suit?

sorry to be a pain, but i appreciate any and all help

Confirmed? No. Going to happen? Absolutely.

 

[plagiarize]

so wait, can someone please clarify this shit for me?

am i correct in thinking that it's been confirmed that Paramount is backing out of their contract and going blu exclusive, and universal is following suit?

sorry to be a pain, but i appreciate any and all help

Universal have let their exclusivity with HD-DVD lapse. they might go into a new contract to maintain it, but as of right now, they aren't in an exclusive contract and could start releasing Blu-Rays.... (and all you Blu-Ray only guys need to buy The Thing when they do).

sounds like Paramount had a condition in their contract that hasn't come to pass and so can pull out of it.

 

[mckmas8808]

New chart on Wikipedia... It's weird to see Universal neutral; I guess that they are taking the fact that this studio didn't renew is exclusivity contract in consideration...

Chart name: Major US film distributors' format support starting June '08
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray

Come on now. That's just crazy.

 

[xS1TH L0RDx]

Confirmed? No. Going to happen? Absolutely.

thanks opus.

btw, lovely avatar. mandy = goddess

 

[mrklaw]

Universal have let their exclusivity with HD-DVD lapse. they might go into a new contract to maintain it, but as of right now, they aren't in an exclusive contract and could start releasing Blu-Rays.... (and all you Blu-Ray only guys need to buy The Thing when they do).

sounds like Paramount had a condition in their contract that hasn't come to pass and so can pull out of it.

Don't worry, I have a pretty big list just selecting from Universal's HDDVD releases, let alone their overall catalog.

But Serenity is first on the list. It was my first HDDVD purchase in the days when I had the 360 add-on and was fantastic.

Followed closely by Van Helsing (guilty pleasure)

 

[C.Dark.DN]

If universal and paramount switched to blu-ray exclusivity... how soon would they announce hd-dvd death an stop player/media production?

 

[mckmas8808]

If universal and paramount switched to blu-ray exclusivity... how soon would they announce hd-dvd death an stop player/media production?

Probably within a few months. Retailers wouldn't even want to stock them if that's the case.

 

[vumpler]

umm good question :lol