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Hi-Def Media Lovefest: The war is over and we can all go home.

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teiresias

Member
BD50 yields are so terrible that they were unable to claim a 95:5 victory this week. If Blu-Ray can't meet consumer demand how can it possibly be the HD optical format of the future?





*I suck at spin.
 
Christopher said:
who's up for the challenge of spinning that one?

Current Blu-ray players aren't even compatible with future titles.
It's okay cause near-HD quality is just as good as HD.
Digital downloads are the future.
Apple says Blu-ray is dead anyways cause Apple TV is coming out.
Retailers aren't dropping HD-DVD anytime soon.
Blu-ray still doesn't come close to DVD sales.
Toshiba is launching a new multimillion dollar campaign and is here to stay.
PlayStation 3 sales don't matter anyways.
BDA paid off Warner
(...somehow worse than Toshiba paying off Paramount even though Warner didn't get a dime from the BDA)

...did I miss any?
 
Snah said:
What do you guys mean when you talk about 'endcaps' and best buy getting rid of them?
endcaps were explained, but this is the "getting rid of them" thing:
bune duggy said:
FUCKING NPD. :mad:

I just came back from Best Buy and I was shocked to see that they have removed their HD-DVD demo unit. The tv isn't hooked up to anything so it's not like it's a change in endcaps, it's just gone.
 

Loudninja

Member
Onix said:
:lol

I'm sure someone will if cornered :p

THESE TWO WEEKS WILL TELL THE TALE:

Feb. 19: HD DVD gets American Gangster Blu Ray gets Michael Clayton, I believe BLU RAY will win the week 55:45

Feb. 26: HD DVD gets Beowulf Blu Ray gets 30 Days of the Night
I believe BLU RAY will win the week 60:40

If Blu Ray wins either one of those weeks by 75:25 or more.

WELL, then HD DVD really is DEAD!!!
Reply With Quote

:lol
 
bune duggy said:
FUCKING NPD. :mad:

I just came back from Best Buy and I was shocked to see that they have removed their HD-DVD demo unit. The tv isn't hooked up to anything so it's not like it's a change in endcaps, it's just gone.

Alot if not all of those endcaps are vendor funded so I believe it's more telling in Toshiba pulling promotional/advertisement funding for HD-DVD.

StoOgE said:
best buy is smart to get rid of the endcap. selling an hddvd player to j6p at this point is horrid customer service.

People are returning them on their own without any prompting. There are about a dozen open box HD-DVD players in my store right now.
 

Raistlin

Post Count: 9999
purnoman3000 said:
Alot if not all of those endcaps are vendor funded so I believe it's more telling in Toshiba pulling promotional/advertisement funding for HD-DVD.

0_0

Yeah ... that sounds like positive news :p

People are returning them on their own without any prompting. There are about a dozen open box HD-DVD players in my store right now.

:lol
 

drohne

hyperbolically metafictive
it's crazy how fast this is happening -- i guess hdm early adopters are savvy enough to react quickly to the warner news
 

Nicodimas

Banned
. If Blu-Ray can't meet consumer demand how can it possibly be the HD optical format of the future?

The rumor says:
People are concerned there is something like 4-6 blu-ray facilites in the world making 3-4 million disks/month for America(I have heard less). This is for movies and games.

HD uses the same as dvd and there are 2000+ facilites. So I am quite curious because I have been looking for proof to back this up as people keep posting this everywhere. Can't find anything that says anything for sure.
 

Raistlin

Post Count: 9999
drohne said:
it's crazy how fast this is happening -- i guess hdm early adopters are savvy enough to react quickly to the warner news

I would think that's obvious. If they weren't quick to react, neither format would have sold even to the level they has so far.
 

Kolgar

Member
purnoman3000 said:
Alot if not all of those endcaps are vendor funded so I believe it's more telling in Toshiba pulling promotional/advertisement funding for HD-DVD.

So, the reassuring press release... the lower player price points... the latest volley of television ads... looks to me like Toshiba is promoting its players in one final push to clear inventory and be done with this.

The end begins? Or the beginning ends. Whatever, let's just get HDM on the fast-track to replacing eye-raping DVD. :p
 

Raistlin

Post Count: 9999
Kolgar said:
So, the reassuring press release... the lower player price points... the latest volley of television ads... looks to me like Toshiba is promoting its players in one final push to clear inventory and be done with this.

That's my impression.


I personally could have done without the volley of TV ads though. I understand why they're doing it, but I think it will come back to haunt them. Now that they've dropped MSRP's, there will at least be some J6P's that will pony up for one.

They're going to be pretty pissed when Toshiba pulls the plug a few months after advertising that they effectively weren't.
 

Kolgar

Member
Onix said:
I personally could have done without the volley of TV ads though. I understand why they're doing it, but I think it will come back to haunt them. Now that they've dropped MSRP's, there will at least be some J6P's that will pony up for one.

They're going to be pretty pissed when Toshiba pulls the plug a few months after advertising that they effectively weren't.

Yeah, I find that disappointing too.

For the most part, I think Toshiba's been a class act in this war. Duping price-sensitive buyers at this point, however, just before the format fizzles out... that's pretty cold.

Maybe they're trying to exact some revenge on this demographic for not buying more HD DVD movies in Q4... :lol
 
Kolgar said:
Yeah, I find that disappointing too.

For the most part, I think Toshiba's been a class act in this war. Duping price-sensitive buyers at this point, however, just before the format fizzles out... that's pretty cold.

Maybe they're trying to exact some revenge on this demographic for not buying more HD DVD movies in Q4... :lol

I can not agree about the class act thing.
In my opinion they were the first ones to resort to the backroom deals and money hatting with the Paramount thing, not to mention the whole "stand alones....no wait...we mean dedicated players".

Even now they are doing even worse my misleading consumers just so that they can save face and unload as many players as possible even going as far as moneyhatting Paramount and Universal to keep them from announcing blu support for a couple of months. (if rumor is to be believed ...I personally do not see two months passing before there is another jump to blu).

They could easily just quietly start repackaging the players as upscalers with hd ability and sell them at lower prices and then work on putting out a dual format drive if not a blu one.
Of if not even that just stay out of the press and just unload what they can quietly.
Making press releases saying "we are fine, we will win" is borderline unethical.
 

mollipen

Member
OokieSpookie said:
Hddigest right?

Those forums are... wow. I kind of feel sorry for some of the HD-DVD folks over there, because they really don't understand that there's only a snowball's chance in hell that HD-DVD could come back from this.
 
Fuck yeah, getting Lost Season 3 BluRay for 24.99 due to a pricing error in a sale a month ago. It's finally being shipped and the price was definitely worth the wait.
 

mackaveli

Member
purnoman3000 said:
Fuck yeah, getting Lost Season 3 BluRay for 24.99 due to a pricing error in a sale a month ago. It's finally being shipped and the price was definitely worth the wait.

yah same, FS just shipped my today. I checked everyday when FS would get some in stock and i saw it was in stock yesterday but never shipped. So glad it shipped today, they better not charge me 84.99 when i get it.
 

Christopher

Member
Hi-def Discs Already Double Size of Download Market

Consumers spent more than $260 million on hi-def discs in 2007, according to my math based on the $170 million that Fox's Danny Kaye said during CES was spent on Blu-ray Disc software, which accounted for about 65% of all sales.
That does not count revenue from hardware sales (roughly anywhere from another $500 million to $1.5 billion, depending on how you count videogame players with hi-def disc capability).

Meanwhile, consumers spent less than half of hi-def disc software sales alone on Internet downloads in 2007 -- $123 million, according to Adams Media Research.

I mention that only to provide perspective.

Internet downloads and Web-delivered content are the hot topic these days.
As a consumer, I have no problem with that. In fact, I relish it.
The more ways and the more control we have in accessing and viewing movies the better. I love watching videos on the Web. The more companies, web sites, distributors involved, the better. The more portability the better.

I was pleased to see Apple's announcement this week that every studio is partnering with them in various iTunes initiatives. Hey, there are 24 million video iPods out there and tons more portable video devices so let's get as much product to them as possible.
And I like Fox's Digital Copy for iTunes strategy. (BTW, that plan requires that you start with a movie that has been purchased on a disc that can then be transferred free to your iTunes library -- a digital copy of a disc, not a copy of a VOD digital download.)

But as exciting as all these new technologies are, and as cool as the new gadgets can be, it's important, especially for market watchers and analysts, not to lose sight of where consumers are spending most of their money, where they will continue to spend most of their money for the foreseeable future, and where studio profits will continue to come from for many years.
Analysts and some bloggers often have a hard time with the concept of peaceful co-existence and strong revenue from multiple formats simultaneously. There seems to be the notion that only one format can be successful, that whatever is the hot new technology, every other technology must be projected to be obsolete or on the verge of death, regardless of the reality of where consumers are spending their money.

In fact, the beauty of all these new technologies is that they are wonderful additional ways to enjoy movies and TV shows but they do not negate or replace my primary desire of watching a movie, when possible, in full 1080p hi-def on my 42-inch and 65-inch plasma displays with surround sound.

By the way, I consider Blu-ray Disc to be one of the most exciting of the cool new technologies. For the first time I am seeing movies in stunning 1080p hi-def and uncompressed audio; for the first I can access the menu for scenes and bonus features without leaving the movie; for the first time I can access the Internet for additional trailers, blogs, commentaries and interactivities.

Meanwhile, I love also having the option of being able to find any movie I want easily on the Internet and quickly and easily downloading it to a portable device that I can then take with me to wherever I may have time to kill or might want to enjoy watching it outside of my home theater environment.

But that doesn't replace my desire to enjoy all the bonus features and interactivities offered on discs when I can do so.

Sure, I can start watching a hi-def movie download within seconds or just a couple minutes after clicking to do so, but it will still take a couple hours to have the whole thing downloaded.
When it does finish downloading, it is compressed and not in full 1080p and does not have uncompressed audio.
It takes up a ton of storage space.
It doesn't have the packaging -- at least not that I can touch and feel without making a printout.
It doesn't have chapter stops.
It doesn't have audio commentaries, making-of documentaries, bloopers, deleted scenes, trailers, etc.
It doesn't have interactivities.
It doesn't allow me to lend it to a friend or play it on more than a finite number of players.

And the reality is that far more homes have disc players (more than 90 million, according to DEG: The Digital Entertainment Group) than have high-speed Internet access. Adams says the number of homes in the U.S. with high-speed has grown to 61 million, about 53% of U.S. households and 74% of homes with PCs. Nonetheless, that's a very strong percentage. Adams projects that number to continue to grow and, with it, the revenue spent on digital downloads, which he shows eventually outpacing cable/satellite pay-per-view/video-on-demand. But that will take five years and will only then be overtaking a market that has taken decades to even reach the $1 billion mark.

Meanwhile, Adams reports that hi-def discs -- already at $260 million in the first full year despite being bogged down by a large-scale format war -- will provide a big spark for growth in the overall disc market, which already stands at a whopping $24 billion.

http://www.hollywoodinhidef.com/blog_detail.php?id=164

people call HD media niche but that download shit is even more obsucre.
 
When it does finish downloading, it is compressed and not in full 1080p and does not have uncompressed audio.
It takes up a ton of storage space.
It doesn't have chapter stops.
It doesn't have audio commentaries, making-of documentaries, bloopers, deleted scenes, trailers, etc.
It doesn't have interactivities.

The posts on the newsgroups have all of the above though. :D
 

Shawn128

Member
Well, if nobody caught it....the HD-A3 went down a bit further on the price drop at Amazon --

Link

Seems like it comes with a copy of 300 and The Bourne Identity (according to Engadget), for $129
 

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
Ryu1999 said:
Oh let me try the spinning!

"Downloads cost less than half of what the disc version sells for, so downloads are still superior and discs are d00med!"

Everyone who is expecting DD to take off is saying that it's still a few years off before becoming mainstream. At least the stuff I've read. I don't think anyone expects DD to be mainstream this year. I think there's a window for HD discs to flourish in before the big push for DD comes. I just hope they make the most of it and DD becomes unnecessary for at least a decade.
 
Do you guys really see physical media persevering? These latest numbers doesn't mean much in the long run. If Hi-Def discs is a nascent market, what does that make DD? It's not even a fetus yet.
Physical media will still have its place, but it will be marginalized and for people like the posters in this thread that anticipate the blu-ray release of Blade Runner. The vast majority will use whatever is accessible just using their remote.
 

theBishop

Banned
Worm_Buffet said:
Do you guys really see physical media persevering? These latest numbers doesn't mean much in the long run. If Hi-Def discs is a nascent market, what does that make DD? It's not even a fetus yet.
Physical media will still have its place, but it will be marginalized and for people like the posters in this thread that anticipate the blu-ray release of Blade Runner. The vast majority will use whatever is accessible just using their remote.

So why aren't they?

Every house with a Comcast cable box is already jacked in to a pretty robust digital distribution system.
 
CDs are what, 9x the sales of online music stores?

And that's considering the market penetration of MP3 players, the fact that onlien stores have the advantage of allowing you to cherry-pick singles, and the fact that a complete song can be downloaded in a about a minute or two.

Someday, DD of music will surpass CD sales. And probably, someday, DD of movies will surpass disc sales. But those curves are longer than people here seem to realize.
 

SteveMeister

Hang out with Steve.
theBishop said:
So why aren't they?

Every house with a Comcast cable box is already jacked in to a pretty robust digital distribution system.

Is there any publicly available data that says that nobody's availing themselves of on-demand programming?
 

Chemo

Member
Not sure if anyone's interested, but I've got to get rid of some things because I'm making a big cross-country move in a tiny, tiny automobile and I'm running out of room for stuff so I'm going to clear out my Harry Potter Blu-rays (I know it doesn't sound like much of a space-saver, but I'm shaving off things wherever I can). I have all five individual releases, and they're in perfect condition, only watched once, so if anyone needs them for their collection, I will cut you some sort of deal. (If anyone needs references to my quality of character, ask Error, as I've sold him games in the past.)

Also, if this is a GAF faux pas, I totally apologize. Just wanted to give you guys first shot at the films in case someone was looking for them.
 

Christopher

Member
No doubt that I see digital downloads growing in size and popularity, but not a threat to Blu Ray or physical media mediums as stated in this thread for a long, long long time.
 

LunaticPuma

dresses business casual
The biggest hindrance to DD is bandwidth and households connected to the internet.

What percent of the US is online with a broadband connection? What about the rest of the world? Obviously it's growing, but there will be a large segment of the population that can only get media through discs for a while.

Also, home theater as a hobby is on the rise especially among those with money who would also be high consumers of DD. They will want the best quality to show off their expensive TV and surround sound. As long as physical media is signficantly better quality than DD, physical media will be around.
 

jjasper

Member
Christopher said:
No doubt that I see digital downloads growing in size and popularity, but not a threat to Blu Ray or physical media mediums as stated in this thread for a long, long long time.

It looks like the current model the movie studios are taking are downloads will be rentals for the time being.

In the future there is no doubt they will have a downloadable ownership model but it will be right with MP3's (secondary to physical media).
 

Raistlin

Post Count: 9999
OokieSpookie said:
I can not agree about the class act thing.
In my opinion they were the first ones to resort to the backroom deals and money hatting with the Paramount thing, not to mention the whole "stand alones....no wait...we mean dedicated players".

Even now they are doing even worse my misleading consumers just so that they can save face and unload as many players as possible even going as far as moneyhatting Paramount and Universal to keep them from announcing blu support for a couple of months. (if rumor is to be believed ...I personally do not see two months passing before there is another jump to blu).

They could easily just quietly start repackaging the players as upscalers with hd ability and sell them at lower prices and then work on putting out a dual format drive if not a blu one.
Of if not even that just stay out of the press and just unload what they can quietly.
Making press releases saying "we are fine, we will win" is borderline unethical.

Those are some good points.


I'd like to also add that you could take it one step further, and go all the way back to the fact there even was a format war.

Toshiba was always behind in terms of support, and was expected to lose because of it. Yet, they still decided to force the issue and create a format war. Even worse, they leveraged their power in the DVD Forum (which should really have NOTHING to do with HDM) in an attempt to put forward their close-to-proprietary format.

Those are less-than-classy moves IMO.
 

Raistlin

Post Count: 9999
Christopher said:
Hi-def Discs Already Double Size of Download Market



http://www.hollywoodinhidef.com/blog_detail.php?id=164

people call HD media niche but that download shit is even more obsucre.

And to think ... that is referring to digital downloads in general ... not just HD ones.



Analysts and some bloggers often have a hard time with the concept of peaceful co-existence and strong revenue from multiple formats simultaneously. There seems to be the notion that only one format can be successful, that whatever is the hot new technology, every other technology must be projected to be obsolete or on the verge of death, regardless of the reality of where consumers are spending their money.

In fact, the beauty of all these new technologies is that they are wonderful additional ways to enjoy movies and TV shows but they do not negate or replace my primary desire of watching a movie, when possible, in full 1080p hi-def on my 42-inch and 65-inch plasma displays with surround sound.

Just wanted to repost this section ... as it EXACTLY states my view on the matter.
 

maharg

idspispopd
Ignatz Mouse said:
CDs are what, 9x the sales of online music stores?

The only direct comparison numbers I can find are from 3 or so years ago, and they're about that. But CD sales have been falling hard in the last couple of years, and online legal downloads have been growing moderately. Which basically creates an overall decline in music sales.

It'd take a fair amount of effort to piece together the real numbers and get a good comparison. You'd expect there to be numbers out there just for 2007 by now though.
 
maharg said:
The only direct comparison numbers I can find are from 3 or so years ago, and they're about that. But CD sales have been falling hard in the last couple of years, and online legal downloads have been growing moderately. Which basically creates an overall decline in music sales.

It'd take a fair amount of effort to piece together the real numbers and get a good comparison. You'd expect there to be numbers out there just for 2007 by now though.

Even if those numbers are a couple of years out of date, look at the lenght of time it will be before CDs aren't made anymore. Somewhere betwen 10 years from now and never.
 
And by the way.....

30,000th post.


Like HD-DVD itself, I think this thread is slowly dying off. But so far, it's been both a lot of fun and annoying as hell at times.

Here's to a near future where most of the stuff we discussed in this thread isn't even talked about, becuase it's all taken for granted-- HD media pervasive.
 
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