I think Microsoft's expectations for next-gen must be sky high and I bet their thinking going in is that they can run neck & neck with Sony in most markets except Asia. If Sony outsells them by a wide margin again next-gen does Gates call it a day and how close do you think it will really be?
If Microsoft can't hang with Sony next-gen will they pack it in?
- Thread starter moondance
- Start date
TheGreenGiant
Banned
DarienA said:
haha. IBHAT
SonicMegaDrive
Member
And already, the thread became a Nintendo bash-fest.
We don't waste time these days.
We don't waste time these days.
seismologist
Banned
quick someone create a distraction!
SonicMegaDrive said:
The fact that you took it as a nintendo-bash is strange since Nintendo themselves have often said they aren't competing against Sony/MS. Numerous times they expressed their content with their place in the market because they continue to turn a profit.
TheGreenGiant
Banned
DarienA said:
haha spin. we know what you meant
TheGreenGiant said:
You obviously have me confused with someone who gives a shit about which console is #1. I only care about which publisher/developer is #1 thank you very much.
You guys are so good at detecting hidden meanings... you should be working for the FBI, CIA... Homeland Security even!
SonicMegaDrive
Member
Well, supposedly the XBox 2 is supposed to be much more profitable, right?
No way, the battle is going to become more than videogames and thats why I beleive microsoft have become involved.
Word processing, web surfing, email, chat, downloadable music, movies and games etc. This is the future of consoles IMO, microsoft dont want to lose their home computer near monopoly. They see playstation as a threat to their home market.
Word processing, web surfing, email, chat, downloadable music, movies and games etc. This is the future of consoles IMO, microsoft dont want to lose their home computer near monopoly. They see playstation as a threat to their home market.
goomba said:
Word Processing?
I see Microsofts involvement in video games as a move to strengthen Windows marketshare.
They probably want to take a big slice out of video gaming and keep it under control. By keeping it under control, they'd most likely prevent video games from doing tasks you'd normally do in Windows.
So far the way Xenon is shaping up this could be the case.
Xenon will be Microsoft's last console. 
dont think hardware really is their thing, Think they know that as well and from what they have been saying about Xenon gives you decent idea of where they are heading.
Xbox will eventually become a software plaform for other companies to license out.
dont think hardware really is their thing, Think they know that as well and from what they have been saying about Xenon gives you decent idea of where they are heading.
Xbox will eventually become a software plaform for other companies to license out.
Chittagong
Gold Member
Giving up is not the way Microsoft works. Their bank account is the fattest in the world, and when they are determined to win a business, they will pour in money as long as they need to.
I have already said that I fully expect Microsoft to take the lead in the next generation. While lots of hype can be built around Sony using the three arguments: the Cell, the "Japan issue" and the fact that PlayStation brand is so strong, Microsoft has what really will matter:
- Solid and early development environment
- Robust network tech Sony can only dream of
- A poor competitor launching two cash-drainers nearly simultaneously
- Bank full of money
Late year 2007 / early 2008 should be the turning point, if my estimates are correct.
I have already said that I fully expect Microsoft to take the lead in the next generation. While lots of hype can be built around Sony using the three arguments: the Cell, the "Japan issue" and the fact that PlayStation brand is so strong, Microsoft has what really will matter:
- Solid and early development environment
- Robust network tech Sony can only dream of
- A poor competitor launching two cash-drainers nearly simultaneously
- Bank full of money
Late year 2007 / early 2008 should be the turning point, if my estimates are correct.
Should be interesting. I think MS will beat Sony next generation. I haven't seen compelling evidence as to why not. Developers are talking. Developers are switching. And Sony cannot depend upon the Metal Gears, Final Fantasies, and Grand Theft Autos anymore. I know this board thinks MS' aspirations to unseat Sony next generation are a joke, but I think they're closer to reality than you think. MS has the quality, the online plan, and the flagship franchise to do it. All they need is hype and word of mouth, and of course a few mistakes on the part of Sony.
Nobody can accurately predict what will happen next round.
You could assume that PS3 will again dominate, with MS and Nintendo fighting for table scraps, but just the opposite could happen.
Halo 2 has proven that MS can build hype. They could possibly hype the Xbox2 the same way that Halo 2 was hyped and it could take over.
Or
Nintendo's revolution could be so revolutionary that developers/publishers will flock to it and support it.
I think that the only constant at this point is that the PS3 will do well. The other two are still up in the air, though I strongly believe that each system will do fine. The market is big and varied enough to have the three competitors be successful.
You could assume that PS3 will again dominate, with MS and Nintendo fighting for table scraps, but just the opposite could happen.
Halo 2 has proven that MS can build hype. They could possibly hype the Xbox2 the same way that Halo 2 was hyped and it could take over.
Or
Nintendo's revolution could be so revolutionary that developers/publishers will flock to it and support it.
I think that the only constant at this point is that the PS3 will do well. The other two are still up in the air, though I strongly believe that each system will do fine. The market is big and varied enough to have the three competitors be successful.
Chittagong said:
Right... and WRONG. MS has shown that they will give up on products if they feel it's in their best interests... MS has also shown thought that they will not give up on certain markets if they feel it's in their best interest... this isn't the first product they've put out in an attempt to grab the living room market... Gateway's Destination PC's, MS BOB, MSN TV(still in a zombie like alive state) and if if fails(Xenon) they'll simply look to focus on another part of the living market... perhaps pushing more attention on the Home Media PC's and streaming(theorizing).
Speevy said:
Developers are switching what? The only big shift I've seen this gen is that EA is now supporting XBL and Sony's online attempts. What else?
Phoenix
Member
If Microsoft gets 'served' this time out, they will have made enough money to justify staying in the market. Especially because this is about more than just the XBox2. Microsoft is undertaking a strategy change that involves diversification into portable electronics. Windows Mobile, Windows CE, Windows Media Center, portable Windows Media Player, Xbox, XNA, etc. are all moves at moving the Windows franchise into more territories than just the PC desktop. Microsoft's strategist aren't stupid. They know that Linux is a growing threat, Java in the business world is a well entrenched threat, blackmailing companies to upgrade to Office won't last forever, open source EVERYTHING is touching all of their software initiatives, etc. Because of this they know that the things that are cash cows for them will no longer be lightly contested from a marketshare perspective and they need to spread into new markets - and this is just one of the ways that they will spread into those new markets.
Chittagong
Gold Member
DarienA said:
Chittagong said:
Point being that the drive to win this game in Microsoft is stronger that almost anything I have seen. Have a chat with some of their higher ranks, and you feel it. The case would be different if their plan was fuzzy or they knew that they are inferior. To me, their strategy seems crystal clear.
The way I see it next generation.
PS3: 50%
Xenon: 40%
Revolution: 10%
And handhelds just for fun:
GBA: 70%
PSP: 15%
DS: 15%
PC:
Blizzard: 94%
Other: 6%
Xbox is really gaining ground now, selling almost on par with PS2. I think the hype for the PS3 will be too great, and will be able to outsell the Xenon for some time. Though the Xenon will have a considerable lead (Possibly 8 - 10 million by the time PS3 comes out) PS3 will sell through and outsell Xenon for it's first year, possibly 15 million in it's first year. Revolution will have it's Nintendo fanbase, accumulating 5 million in it's first year, and selling consistently for it's duration.
PS3: 50%
Xenon: 40%
Revolution: 10%
And handhelds just for fun:
GBA: 70%
PSP: 15%
DS: 15%
PC:
Blizzard: 94%
Other: 6%
Xbox is really gaining ground now, selling almost on par with PS2. I think the hype for the PS3 will be too great, and will be able to outsell the Xenon for some time. Though the Xenon will have a considerable lead (Possibly 8 - 10 million by the time PS3 comes out) PS3 will sell through and outsell Xenon for it's first year, possibly 15 million in it's first year. Revolution will have it's Nintendo fanbase, accumulating 5 million in it's first year, and selling consistently for it's duration.
Phoenix
Member
Chittagong said:
I wouldn't go on that. For years they fought their little vietnam conflict against Macromedia's Flash and lost, spectacularly at that. They also fought a pitched battle with Adobe while trying to replace Photoshop and lost, even more spectacularly. Microsoft does best against companies that are stagnant (like Palm and Sun) and have very bad relationships with the development communities.... like Palm and Sun.
KilledByBill
Member
I wouldn't exactly call Sony "poor." Maybe relative to Microsoft's enormous cash and liquid assets but I can't think of any company with financial reserves comparable to MS.
I did a financial analysis of Sony last fall in college so I have some idea of where they are. If push came to shove I'm sure Sony would be able to obtain the financing it needs to keep moving full speed ahead with PSP/PS3. After all Sega was able to do it for years and they didn't have any where near the market clout and history of success Sony does.
Well Microsoft have had great marketing,thats for sure,and are very savy for getting their foot in the door. I remember vaguely knowing who they were in the mid 90's before seeing those Windows 95 commercials being blitzed like it wasn't even funny. So theyre marketing has been consistent for awhile now. They've done the same for their console and have brought online console gaming to the scene,and for the most part have done pretty well since I'm happy with what they've offered me so far. This was always a grey area in my opinion,after seeing Sega crash and burn after basicaly offering this aspect of gaming free of charge,I had reservations about Microsoft pulling it off with a fee involved. Its not nearly as mainstream as it could be,but its geting there,and its been their real identity inthe console wars. I guess they just need to carry over that momentum,that Xbox Live is the continued next step for gaming so to speak,cause their Xbox Live plan has been their trump card when people assosiate what they are to console gaming,in my opinion.
I can defintely see them unseating Sony. But will they,err I dunno. As long as its a close race,say a Genesis /SNES war,then that would be pretty neat. Actually as of now it seems to be this way between the Xbox and PS2. I've seen just as many people purchasing Xbox as PS2 s I think were halfway there to a great next gen. console war. Microsoft just need to carry over that momentum with thesame marketing and gaming formula.
I'll just say that I very much plan to buy both a PS3 and the next Xbox though,definately. I want Microsoft at the very least do well enough so that they stay around for the long haul. Sony I know will always be there so theres no worry about them.
I can defintely see them unseating Sony. But will they,err I dunno. As long as its a close race,say a Genesis /SNES war,then that would be pretty neat. Actually as of now it seems to be this way between the Xbox and PS2. I've seen just as many people purchasing Xbox as PS2 s I think were halfway there to a great next gen. console war. Microsoft just need to carry over that momentum with thesame marketing and gaming formula.
I'll just say that I very much plan to buy both a PS3 and the next Xbox though,definately. I want Microsoft at the very least do well enough so that they stay around for the long haul. Sony I know will always be there so theres no worry about them.
Chittagong
Gold Member
KilledByBill said:
The key number to keep an eye on at the moment is the profit margin and what business contributes most on that. Currently, the biggest task that the executives at Sony have is to convince the shareholders that the Transformation 60 project is on it's road to success.
Now, for the last few years, games business has been a key contributor to the overall profit margin. Should Sony do a full-scale, global PSP launch at the kamikaze pricepoint they have for a limited launch in Japan, they would effectively kill their profit margin. The shareholders would see this as a failure of the Transformation 60, leading into heavy pressure in the management for changes.
I'm not sure if I'd call it a Catch 22 situation, but it is interesting for sure. Sony has a short-term target to push the profit margin up to 10%, while it should be taking part in fierce and expensive battles in two fronts simultaneously against two strong enemies - both of who are able to spend a lot of money to make Sony struggle. Sun Tzu has written a rule or two for such situations - rules Kutaragi defies.
The Guivre
Member
Really I think each of the presently established companies will continue to survive, some perhaps more than others. Sony has their backwards compatibility to rely on along with a huge share of the market to begin with. Microsoft has the fact that it's Microsoft, and the millions of us just waiting to see how the Master Chief saves us all and such. Nintendo has its fanboys that they first spawned in the 80's.
I also think we forgot to count the Phantom.. you know.. that powerhouse of gaming?
I do wonder what will become of PC gaming.
I also think we forgot to count the Phantom.. you know.. that powerhouse of gaming?
I do wonder what will become of PC gaming.
MS is going down the sega path. Their graphical advantage is lost next gen, Sony will have that advantage again(if there can be one of course). It will be the ps2 versus the DC again.
How will MS drown out the hype of the ps3 like in the situation with the DC. When they launch the hype will be all over the ps3, and if they don't have a lan they are going to lose.
How will MS drown out the hype of the ps3 like in the situation with the DC. When they launch the hype will be all over the ps3, and if they don't have a lan they are going to lose.
CrimsonSkies
Member
And give up their ambition for the living room ahah. I don't think so. They'll just come out with something else quicker than the competition.
Let me say, u are wrong, or at least, half wrong. Im from Europe, and Xbox is doing better and better each day it passes, the American and European market is not that diferent as u may think. For the Japan market, ur right, MS will never be a sucess in that comunity, but, Europe and America are big enough to suport MS.Gregory said:
MS won't fail next gen, because now that gaming is mainstream, all that matters to consumers are the graphics. Because we all know graphics make a good game. Who wants something inspired, innovative or fun?
Can you sense the sarcasm?
...and it's no secret that without Halo, Xbox never would've gained any market share... Which to this day blows my mind, because Halo isn't as great as Xbox zealots tout it to be, IMO.
Can you sense the sarcasm?
...and it's no secret that without Halo, Xbox never would've gained any market share... Which to this day blows my mind, because Halo isn't as great as Xbox zealots tout it to be, IMO.
I dont think MS will 'win" next gen, but I think it's very possible that they heat sony's ass up quite a lot, and maybe even keep up.
And the market is so wide nowadays, they'd just need to keep up with sony to do well: this isn't a 10 million unit market anymore.
Now if they do kep up next gen, THEN their door is not only open for the next gen, because they'll have some steep mindshare AND the momentum of a very successful Xbox upstart (considering against what it went up against) and a (time will tell) yet more successful Xenon venture.
And the market is so wide nowadays, they'd just need to keep up with sony to do well: this isn't a 10 million unit market anymore.
Now if they do kep up next gen, THEN their door is not only open for the next gen, because they'll have some steep mindshare AND the momentum of a very successful Xbox upstart (considering against what it went up against) and a (time will tell) yet more successful Xenon venture.
There will be little to no difference in performance with the next generation of consoles so it will be all about the games. So, unless Konami, Square Enix, Rockstar and Capcom do a mass exodus to the Xbox2, MS will never overtake Sony. However I do see them neck and neck. It should be very close.