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[Phoenix]

Since when did they ever compete against Flash and Photoshop? I would say that Microsoft never had a product that was in direct competition with those two.

Sadly you are either 'new' to Microsoft's product lines and developer products or just not informed.

On Microsoft strategies to compete with Photoshop:

We have learned, historically, if we stay close to what we really do well, we win. Microsoft has tried [to enter Adobe's markets]. It tried in the early days coming up with a PostScript clone -- and it actually shipped one printer with an OEM. It was a total failure. It tried with Microsoft Draw and Microsoft PhotoDraw, and gave away the product free with Microsoft Office to kind of "nitch up" Illustrator and Photoshop. Again, it was total failure -- these products no longer exist. For eBook publishing, it tried Microsoft Reader, as a end run around PDF. You never hear about Microsoft Reader anymore. Microsoft tried, once again, to go at Photoshop with Microsoft Picture It. The company has never been able to move Picture It above the consumer level. So, I am confident that, as long as we do what we do well, as long as we continue to execute, we'll be very successful, despite Microsoft's monopoly.

When I get home I'll grab the CDs with Microsoft ActiveX based competitor to Flash. They pushed that one hard and no one was interested in adopting it because it only worked on Windows.

 

[Che]

The investors will never allow another Xbox if Xenon won't become the wild success MS hopes it to be. If Xenon sales are equal to Xbox's it'll be probably considered a failure.

 

[Phoenix]

Well, if they pushed the reset button, they could certainly start making a profit with thier current userbase, as shown by Nintendo. The question is, can they either 1) make back the billions they've invested and STILL make a profit with thier current userbase; or 2) further expand thier userbase, make back the billions they've invested and STILL make a profit. And you say they need to do this by 2007 and launch a new console in the meantime?

Microsoft has been flushing money into MSN forever and they continue to do so, so I can imagine that they would do the same with Xbox.

 

[Azih]

I'm confused. You responded to my comment concerning profits.

No business major but I'm pretty sure there's a difference between profit overall and profit by financial year.

So I might have spent 1 billion in 2000 to start a business, lost 100 million in first year of operations but made 600 million in 2001. Now I may have to make 500 million bucks to climb out of the hole, but I still had an extremely successful profit in 2001 and my investors will be ecstatic

 

[akascream]

Microsoft has been flushing money into MSN forever and they continue to do so, so I can imagine that they would do the same with Xbox.

I wonder what thier investment in MSN is compared to the Xbox. I know in our region of the country, they purchased our telecom company's isp infrastructure.. right down to thier outsourced customer service.

 

[CrimsonSkies]

I laugh when I hear people claiming that Microsoft Investors might force them to bail on the Xbox project. Especially since usually within the same paragraph they are praising Sony's business model. Not that there is anything wrong with Sony as a company, but compared to Microsoft in the realms of making investors happy. There really isn't a comparison. Fuzzy Math indeed.

 

[Che]

Microsoft has been flushing money into MSN forever and they continue to do so, so I can imagine that they would do the same with Xbox.

How many billions did they invest?

 

[Phoenix]

I wonder what thier investment in MSN is compared to the Xbox. I know in our region of the country, they purchased our telecom company's isp infrastructure.. right down to thier outsourced customer service.

There are some fights that are short term wins and some battles that must be fought over the veeeeeeery long term. Getting a sizeable presensce in the video game market is one of those long term things, as is MSN. In the end, I think that neither MSN nor XBox will be the money making powerhouses that they want. The problem now is that they have invested soooo heavily in these arenas that they aren't just going to pack it up and go home. In the areas where they were getting served and has small investments (WebTV), they packed up - sold off what they could and moved on.

 

[Phoenix]

How many billions did they invest?

I'll pull the S10 (I'm a Microsoft investor) when I get home and let ya know. From a financial perspective I'd love to see Microsoft succeed in this space and become the dominant player. However I just don't see it happening with XBox2. But as we say with all product made by Microsoft - the 3rd times the charm

 

[akascream]

No business major but I'm pretty sure there's a difference between profit overall and profit by financial year.

Oh, I'm sure there is. But my comment was definately concerning overall profitability of thier Xbox venture.

There are some fights that are short term wins and some battles that must be fought over the veeeeeeery long term.

Which brings us back to my question. I wonder how long they can justify not turning a profit.

the 3rd times the charm

If they fail to make money with Xenon, I wonder if there will be an Xbox 3.

 

[gamergirly]

There will be little to no difference in performance with the next generation of consoles so it will be all about the games. So, unless Konami, Square Enix, Rockstar and Capcom do a mass exodus to the Xbox2, MS will never overtake Sony. However I do see them neck and neck. It should be very close.

Bingo! Somebody pointed out the Hat Trick. Dont you realize what has driven many gamers to Xbox this gen? Better hardware and Xbox Live. Bc let's face it, it would never have achieved 2nd place on games alone.

All of that is now taken away. The next gen console games will pretty much look the same from one to the other. So, it comes down to games, where Sony has a record, both in popularity and in distribution of genres. MS is going to have to steal some of the big developers including many of the Japanese to compete.

But first of all, they're going to have to find a way to trumpt PS3 and Revolution's post-release hypes since their Xbox 2 console will have been out on the market for at least half a year. That's key.........

 

[kaching]

...Sony has proven to be combatative as they woudn't let the OS onto the PSX or PS2 and I don't think they'll change their attitude in the future (especially considering the radically distinct CELL architecture of the PS3). Plus Sony has always been miffed that the Playstation series remains 'merely videogame machines' and want to leverage their dominance over consoles and move playstations into providing services that PC companies would like to provide. So Microsoft is faced with a huge, cunning, non-cooperative, ambitous company that is controlling significantly powerful computing devices in millions of households worldwide and looking to expand. If you think in those terms then MS should be freaking terrified and rightly so.

:lol If there was going to be a made-for-TV movie about the PS2 vs. Xbox machinations within Sony and MS, I'd definitely recommend you for the script, but the melodrama you're infusing into things is not drawn from any real world indicators. What's "combative" about simply deciding that an OS from MS probably wouldn't be a good fit for the PS2? And Playstation series remains "merely videogame machines" because of Sony's own choices about that business, not because of anyone else's choice not to embrace the PS hardware for more than games. Meanwhile, last I checked, Sony wasn't selling Mac OS or Linux based PCs/laptops...

 

[Che]

I'll pull the S10 (I'm a Microsoft investor) when I get home and let ya know. From a financial perspective I'd love to see Microsoft succeed in this space and become the dominant player. However I just don't see it happening with XBox2. But as we say with all product made by Microsoft - the 3rd times the charm

Hmmm I don't think so. The way I see it with the early launch, xenon will become either a PS2 or a Dreamcast. If it becomes a huge success instantly, the console will be hyped and it'll follow the success of PS2. If it sells
just "good", the following months with Sony's huge PR stunts and Nintendo's advertised innovations (if there are any), people will simply wait for the "more powerful" consoles (which I currently doubt, but casuals will think that way), and Xenon will probably fail. Let's not forget that MS's slogan for Xbox and one of the main selling points for it is that it's the most powerful console. And if they fail I seriously doubt that there will be an Xbox3.

 

[Azih]

Thing is that at every launch of Playstation hardware so far either Kaz Hirai or Ken Kutaragi make noises about how the Playstation should move beyond video games. the 'merely a video game machine' aren't my words. They're theirs. Hell I think Kaz Hirai come out and blunty said to a reporter at the PS2 launch "Please don't call the PS2 a video game machine".

And really the whole point isn't that Sony is trying to corner the PC market, they're not. But they're trying to expand the console market into areas that the PC market either is or would like to be.

 

[Azih]

Hmmm I don't think so. The way I see it with the early launch, xenon will become either a PS2 or a Dreamcast. If it becomes a huge success instantly, the console will be hyped and it'll follow the success of PS2. If it sells
just "good", the following months with Sony's huge PR stunts and Nintendo's advertised innovations (if there are any), people will simply wait for the "more powerful" consoles (which I currently doubt, but casuals will think that way), and Xenon will probably fail. Let's not forget that MS's slogan for Xbox and one of the main selling points for it is that it's the most powerful console. And if they fail I seriously doubt that there will be an Xbox3.

I don't think past history has been a very good indicator of the future of the games industry. Every one of the last few generations (NES -> Genesis/SNES -> PSX/Saturn/N64 -> DC/GC/PS2/Xbox) has been VERY different from the one before.

MS's slogan for Xbox hasn't been 'the most powerful machine' ever since Xbox Live launched, since then it's been "It's good to play together". Edit: There's nothing saying MS can't change it up for the future.

 

[gamergirly]

I don't think past history has been a very good indicator of the future of the games industry. Every one of the last few generations (NES -> Genesis/SNES -> PSX/Saturn/N64 -> DC/GC/PS2/Xbox) has been VERY different from the one before.

MS's slogan for Xbox hasn't been 'the most powerful machine' ever since Xbox Live launched, since then it's been "It's good to play together". Edit: There's nothing saying MS can't change it up for the future.

If that's true, why is it that in most reviews and even on the back of many Xbox games they mention the graphics?

 

[Che]

I don't think past history has been a very good indicator of the future of the games industry. Every one of the last few generations (NES -> Genesis/SNES -> PSX/Saturn/N64 -> DC/GC/PS2/Xbox) has been VERY different from the one before.

MS's slogan for Xbox hasn't been 'the most powerful machine' ever since Xbox Live launched, since then it's been "It's good to play together". Edit: There's nothing saying MS can't change it up for the future.

It's not just the past history. I explained my theory. And MS's slogan might not be "the most powerful console" officially, unofficially on the other side Xbox was always marketed as such.

 

[kaching]

Thing is that at every launch of Playstation hardware so far either Kaz Hirai or Ken Kutaragi make noises about how the Playstation should move beyond video games. the 'merely a video game machine' aren't my words. They're theirs. Hell I think Kaz Hirai come out and blunty said to a reporter at the PS2 launch "Please don't call the PS2 a video game machine".

I understand that. But my point was that the lack of execution on those statements has been theirs as well. They've talked about wanting to do more but haven't done it yet, so I don't think they can really be "miffed" at anybody for the state of Playstation hardware up to this point.

And really the whole point isn't that Sony is trying to corner the PC market, they're not. But they're trying to expand the console market into areas that the PC market either is or would like to be.

Sony is just working within their home domain, creating consumer electronics that try to address shifting interests in personal/home entertainment. Over time, its natural to see the convergence of games. movies and music in some fashion, given how powerful the hardware has become.

 

[Subitai]

As long as Sony is threatening a monopoly in the familyroom, MS will keep in it. Especially if it has a way to spin good numbers like they're improving in some area without falling behind in another.

Remember, they originally planned to own this generation with 100+ million unit sales. :lol

 

[CaptainABAB]

I am VERY familiar with MS products since ...ohhh 1995 and in no way did any product of theirs ever compete against Photoshop in any serious fashion. They were improvements on MS Paint, but I can't recall any article or review comparing them to Photoshop or any marketing from MS targeted to the PhotoShop audience. If anything, Microsoft wanted Adobe to make Photoshop better on Windows then on the Mac.

Also, this is like saying Publisher is a competitor to PageMaker or QuarkXPress. They are completely different audiences/markets, etc.

You might as well suggest the v-tech v-smile is a competitor to the ps2 and xbox.



I don't think having an OS powering the games is as important in consoles as it is in the PC market. Consoles get replaced every 5 years, so the vendors can switch to a new OS in a few years and MS is back to ground zero.

I think the real goal is the XBOX Live service - it can be utilized across console generations, has community features that are harder to rip out and replace and provides a sustainable subscription revenue model.


BTW, MSN is now profitable and IE4 kicked Netscape 3's ass across the board.

 

[DaveT]

The way I see it next generation.

PS3: 50%
Xenon: 40%
Revolution: 10%

And handhelds just for fun:
GBA: 70%
PSP: 15%
DS: 15%

PC:
Blizzard: 94%
Other: 6%

Xbox is really gaining ground now, selling almost on par with PS2. I think the hype for the PS3 will be too great, and will be able to outsell the Xenon for some time. Though the Xenon will have a considerable lead (Possibly 8 - 10 million by the time PS3 comes out) PS3 will sell through and outsell Xenon for it's first year, possibly 15 million in it's first year. Revolution will have it's Nintendo fanbase, accumulating 5 million in it's first year, and selling consistently for it's duration.

You stated an oxymoron with, "Xbox is really gaining ground now, selling almost on par with PS2."

If it's selling "almost on par," then it's not gaining anything on the sales with the PS2. The gap is the same.

Anyhow, wouldn't it make sense for at least one other consoles sales to close the gap on the PS2? Everyone already has a PS2. So when those people who only have a PS2 feel they can afford another console (with the prices coming down), some other console is going to close its gap on the PS2 when it comes to weekly sales.

Anyhow, Microsoft isn't proving anything as far as "fanbase" goes with the weekly sales gaps closing in on each other this late in the game.

At least, in my opinion.

Dave

 

[DaveT]

I will say what I always say. Trying to sit here and guess who will win the next-generation is a waste of time. It's been proven that one company with the right marketing and strategy can overtake a powerhouse within one generation. It's happened before and I am sure in time it will happen again in due time. But trying to guess that it'll happen next generation is useless in the fact that if you are wrong, no one will care, but if you are right you are going to shove it in everyone's face about how you knew it would happen, blah blah blah.

It'll happen when it happens.

In _my_ opinion.

 

[WarPig]

Jesus, Toole, don't you have a real job?

DFS.

 

[XS+]

Bingo! Somebody pointed out the Hat Trick. Dont you realize what has driven many gamers to Xbox this gen? Better hardware and Xbox Live. Bc let's face it, it would never have achieved 2nd place on games alone.

All of that is now taken away. The next gen console games will pretty much look the same from one to the other. So, it comes down to games, where Sony has a record, both in popularity and in distribution of genres. MS is going to have to steal some of the big developers including many of the Japanese to compete.

But first of all, they're going to have to find a way to trumpt PS3 and Revolution's post-release hypes since their Xbox 2 console will have been out on the market for at least half a year. That's key.........

Excellent post. Microsoft will bust off prematurely, just as the Dreamcast did, allowing Sony to usher in the PS3 off the back of tremendous hype and amazing launch titles (GT4? GTA4?). The Sony brand is already established, with consumers looking to them -- not Microsoft -- to take the lead in this industry. PS3 will come with superior graphics, backwards compatability, and support from developers that gamers care about.

 

[Chony]

By gaining ground, I meant that come next generation, if they continue to sell at the same pace as PS3, they could overtake the PS3 with an earlier launch. This of course only applies to the US. With Xenon launching holiday 05' in the US, PS3 launching spring 06' in Japan, then holiday 06' in the US, Xenon should have some considerable ground on PS3 by the time it launches in America. By no means will Xenon suddenly be able to take the world market, certainly not Japan, but it will do well. They [Microsoft] will pour tons of money into Xenon, and it will do well. I don't know if launching this early is the greatest idea, see Dreamcast, but if the PS3 hype can't overtake the Xenon, as it did the Dreamcast, I definitely see the Xenon selling on par with PS3 in the US.

Xbox is continuing to gain more and more attraction to the consumer (I don't own one but will probably pick up a Xenon if Perfect Dark Zero launches with it), in the beginning it was merely a more impressive graphic console, but the many features helped sell. With Live at the launch of the Xenon, an already established fan base, I don't see how they cannot do better next generation.

 

[Azih]

Over time, its natural to see the convergence of games. movies and music in some fashion, given how powerful the hardware has become.

Sure, powerful Sony computers (consoles) control the living room and stream content via the internet, Microsoft does not want Sony hardware controlling the living room if there is no MS OS in there. And since a MS OS will never be in Sony hardeware MS is going to stay in the game market to at the very least prevent dominance.

 

[Monk]

I don't see how anything is for certain with the xenon. The clearly better graphics of the Xbox versus the ps2 is what helped it sell with gamers opting for the best version of games. But it still isn't selling aswell as the ps2. Next gen it wont have that advantage, but if ms plays their cards right they can sell it better than the ps3. But it isn't a sure thing. Sony has the advantage of their own factories and the have a tie ratio with the ps2 about 20% or more than the Xbox. So sony can afford to make a more powerful console than the Xenon and sell it at the same price.

Considering that, it is possible that MS may do worse than the Xbox. The Xbox had HUGE hype going for it and had advertising for it about the same period that we are to the Xenon. And MS has promised to break even in 2k7. They can't afford to take the same losses as they did with the Xbox unless they intend to go back on their word to their investors.

 

[kaching]

Sure, powerful Sony computers (consoles) control the living room and stream content via the internet, Microsoft does not want Sony hardware controlling the living room if there is no MS OS in there. And since a MS OS will never be in Sony hardeware MS is going to stay in the game market to at the very least prevent dominance.

I was never disputing that. I simply disputed your presentation of Sony as "combative" and "uncooperative" based on the evidence you provided.

 

[TheGreenGiant]

Gigadent? :lol

= seismologist. But then he might have more than 1 account

 

[Phoenix]

I am VERY familiar with MS products since ...ohhh 1995 and in no way did any product of theirs ever compete against Photoshop in any serious fashion.

Well I walked the Redmond halls in 93 and I can tell you that even far back then they were looking to build competitors to Framemaker/Pagemaker and move INTO that businesses of digital publishing through Word and its companion products much the same that I can tell you that the Microsoft Game SDK (hehe) which became DirectX was intended specifically to counter the growing number of DOS based games that were believed to be keeping people from complete migration to Windows. I can tell you with certainty that the entire purpose of Winword (as it was known at that time) was to destroy WordPerfects DOS based strangle hold on the market and migrate people over to Windows - where they would have to stay because specifically Word was designed to import as perfectly Word Perfect 5.0 and 5.1 documents but NOT to export them. I could go on and on about many of those strategies and business plans because I experienced them first hand from within the them 4-5K employee company.

I don't think having an OS powering the games is as important in consoles as it is in the PC market. Consoles get replaced every 5 years, so the vendors can switch to a new OS in a few years and MS is back to ground zero.

No. The one thing that game development companies - PARTICULARLY 3rd parties want to be able to do is reuse as much code as possible from prior generations. They get this through DirectX (WGF). The OS itself is very lightweight and more along for the ride to give basic traditional OS services via the hardware abstraction layer to DirectX device drivers.

I think the real goal is the XBOX Live service - it can be utilized across console generations, has community features that are harder to rip out and replace and provides a sustainable subscription revenue model.

The current XBox live model could be competed with pretty readily buy buying Gamespy (which all parties are capable of - they don't make any money these days), spending a year on UI and standardization and tossing it over the fence. XBox live by itself is not sufficient revenue for the billions of dollars that Microsoft has already spent - not even close.

BTW, MSN is now profitable and IE4 kicked Netscape 3's ass across the board.

Incorrect. MSN has 'turned a profit'. That is far far from being profitable. MSN is so far in the red its sick.

 

[Spanker]

You guys are all forgeting about a lil but very important thing... XNA

As already was told, the hardware power of the 3 consoles will be very identical, and the key are the games, u guys may say that Sony have the support of this or that softwarehouse, but with XNA Microsoft will bring many new softwarehouses to the game, and the already know ones will look to XNA as a way to lower the costs of the game productions.

XNA = more softwarehouses working to Xbox2 = more games.

 

[Monk]

Yeah XNA is great thing for MS, even Squaresoft have shown interest in it. But it iis more about the quality of games than quantity though. I mean do you want the online FF's or the offline ones in terms of consumer support.

 

[isamu]

I used to think nex gen would be domminated by the Sony and the PS3. But after witnessing the zombie-like following and madness during and prior to the Halo 2 launch, it is evident the tides are turning in M$' favor. Halo 2 has already sold $14 million copies...FOURTEEN MILLION people!!!! That is unheard of for a western game! The amount of Xbox live users is EXPLODING. Xenon is obviously going to improve on Xbox Live's infrastructure so the only way it can go features wise, is up. Sony has mentioned no plans on how they plan on implementing their online infrastructure for the PS3. Not to mention a slew of killer-apps like the obvious RalliSport, DOA and Ninja Gaiden sequels coming, as well as VERY strong rumors of Squaresoft in talks with M$ to dev for Xenon.

I honestly would be worried if I were Sony. I honestly feel they will loose top foothole in the market to M$ next gen.

If Polyphony ever deflects from Sony and puts the GT franchise on Xenon, it's OVER!!

 

[DDayton]

For the casual gamer, is there really any difference between having Sony triumph in the end and having MS triumph in the end? Both would amount to about the same thing, I'd think. Nintendo winning would result in a radically different market, but Sony and MS are pushing the same sort of stuff.

Unless I'm wrong.

 

[Monk]

$14 million copies...

You have a source for that?

 

[Luscious LeftFoot]

Halo 2 has already sold $14 million copies...FOURTEEN MILLION people!!!! [/b].

Huh??? What???

If Polyphony ever deflects from Sony and puts the GT franchise on Xenon, it's OVER!!

Isn't Polyphony and GT franchise owned by Sony?

 

[isamu]

You have a source for that?

http://www.the-nextlevel.com/

 

[XS+]

I used to think nex gen would be domminated by the Sony and the PS3. But after witnessing the zombie-like following and madness during and prior to the Halo 2 launch, it is evident the tides are turning in M$' favor. Halo 2 has already sold $14 million copies...FOURTEEN MILLION people!!!! That is unheard of for a western game! The amount of Xbox live users is EXPLODING. Xenon is obviously going to improve on Xbox Live's infrastructure so the only way it can go features wise, is up. Sony has mentioned no plans on how they plan on implementing their online infrastructure for the PS3. Not to mention a slew of killer-apps like the obvious RalliSport, DOA and Ninja Gaiden sequels coming, as well as VERY strong rumors of Squaresoft in talks with M$ to dev for Xenon.

I honestly would be worried if I were Sony. I honestly feel they will loose top foothole in the market to M$ next gen.

If Polyphony ever deflects from Sony and puts the GT franchise on Xenon, it's OVER!!

That must be why the Xbox is consistently owned by the PS2, in both units sold and number of titles on sales charts. Do you have any proof that the "number of Xbox live users is EXPLODING"? I don't require evidence that Halo 2 has sold 14 million, as that's an outright lie.

killer-apps like...DOA

:lol

 

[duckroll]

I don't require evidence that Halo 2 has sold 14 million, as that's an outright lie.

Give the poor man a break, he clearly said $14 million copies! At 50 bucks per copy, that would mean it only sold 280k copies!

SELL YOUR XBOXES! ITS ALL OVER! :lol

 

[mrklaw]

I think I read that Halo 2 + Halo 1 had done 11million combined so far, Halo 2= 5 million.


XNA is irrelevant unless it allows for easier coding to PS3 and Revolution. If its just Xbox2 and PC, then thats not a lot better than now, where PC and Xbox co-development is relatively straightforward.

How is XNA better than something like Renderware studio which allows for coding to all three major platoforms (and I assume next gen too)?

Its a red herring IMO.


As is Xbox live. Basically MS has paid for the world's biggest focus test of online gaming, and now Sony (and Nintendo if they want) can cash in and steal the best bits. 1 and a bit million subscribers compared to a 15 million install base is hardly a great attach rate when you see how much MS shout about live.

Online will be big, but most likely next generation, and if Sony have a similar service available, or at least learn from Live, then that 'advantage' of MS is lost.



So
- MS don't have an ease of development advantage like they claim.
- They won't have the technical lead like they did this generation (a big reason behind kids wanting xbox - its just the newest, best machine)
- They won't have the online advantage anymore.

They could fail big time. They've done well this gen, after a shaky start. But a lot of the things they have going for them now won't be there for them next gen.

 

[Spike]

Halo 2 has already sold $14 million copies...FOURTEEN MILLION people!!!!

14 Million Copies? F-Zero GX on Xbox?

isamu
warning: complete idiot

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

XNA is irrelevant unless it allows for easier coding to PS3 and Revolution. If its just Xbox2 and PC, then thats not a lot better than now, where PC and Xbox co-development is relatively straightforward.

How is XNA better than something like Renderware studio which allows for coding to all three major platoforms (and I assume next gen too)?

Its a red herring IMO.

I thought I was the only one that the whole XNA hype didn't make sense to. I figured it was a response to Xenon not being a PC in a box as much as Xbox was.

 

[Azih]

I was never disputing that. I simply disputed your presentation of Sony as "combative" and "uncooperative" based on the evidence you provided.

Dude they're competitors, any decent competitor is combatitive and uncooperative with the competition. In this case Sony could have prevented the launch of the Xbox by agreing to a sweetheart deal where MSN becomes the service provider for the Playstation hardware or something.

Of course that was *never* going to happen. Sony wants control, which puts them in direct conflict with Microsoft which also wants control.

Edit: I always figured XNA was a method by which developing for Xbox2 becomes even easier. Plus there is a difference between Microsoft themselves providing API's and support versus a third party like Renderware. The first is much more attractive than the second.