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[mclem]

This does sound - on paper at least - like it's just about legitimately 'lowball end of next-gen' rather than 'high end of this gen'; possibly not too low-down, either, depending on how much oomph (and when) Sony and Microsoft aim for.

I've said a few times, and I'm sticking to it: I'm very sceptical about whether another big leap on their part would be good for the industry as a whole. In a time when software devs really ought to be looking into ways to reduce their expenditure, adding in new things that would crank up budgets could be very risky indeed.

 

[Syferz]

average load is 121W for a standard card. 182 was running furmark which is a little unfair. 121W is running crysis on extreme, 1920x1200 which seems fair.

Actually that was the power color version of the 6950, the standard card ran at about 140 on normal load and performed 10% better then that version you are talking about (same link, it's just if you actually read the page)

The 360 launched at 160watts, that is the size and power you would want to target your next console to be at or below. (though Sony's was higher I believe, and with another Nvidia card, they will certainly have to be higher again to get the same or similar performance.)

The 6950 is produced at 40nm, so if you shrink it by half, you'll lose 30% power usage, so about 100watts for that GPU, the CPU will need to pull in some watts too, with all other components also adding to heat, Hard drive would take up another 10 to 20watts, so I would assume that the GPU would need to be at about 80Watts @ launch, a 6870 is more likely, but even a 6950 would give you the Xbox to PS2 comparison.

20nm won't be ready until late 2014 if MS and Sony both wait for 2014, Nintendo is likely to have a lot of exclusives or timed exclusives for their box, and since development is so easy between the 360 and "Cafe" Developers will likely start using "Cafe" as the base unit with future consoles coming out, and simply scale back to 360, allowing their franchises to continue to become better looking and thus more desired while waiting for the dinosaurs that were the HD consoles, to move into found memory land.

This would create a PS1/PS2 situation for Nintendo, they would be the base console that all games are shown on first, so either Sony and MS come out with 28nm parts in 2013, thus making their GPU based on 6850 GPU's or even worse, the 6790 (the slight upgrade to the 6770/5770 which is 4870's twin, and will likely be even a closer comparison then xbox and ps2) leaving those consoles with a similar problem as we saw with 360 this gen, the first successful console will likely fill the base console of next gen, that all games are ported from.

If you are Sony or MS, you also have to worry about the other releasing later and having the definitive version of every port thanks to stronger hardware, thus 2014 is a good time to release your console.

If Nintendo has enough RAM (1GB main memory and maybe 256MB T1 ram (or 512mb slightly slower ram) and 20mb edram)
Has an online that is on par with or at least competitive to Live.
Truly reach out to third parties and prices the console between 299 and 349...
They will be the go to platform of this coming gen and there is very little Sony or Microsoft can realistically do about it.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Actually that was the power color version of the 6950, the standard card ran at about 140 on normal load and performed 10% better then that version you are talking about (same link, it's just if you actually read the page)

The 360 launched at 160watts, that is the size and power you would want to target your next console to be at or below. (though Sony's was higher I believe, and with another Nvidia card, they will certainly have to be higher again to get the same or similar performance.)

The 6950 is produced at 40nm, so if you shrink it by half, you'll lose 30% power usage, so about 100watts for that GPU, the CPU will need to pull in some watts too, with all other components also adding to heat, Hard drive would take up another 10 to 20watts, so I would assume that the GPU would need to be at about 80Watts @ launch, a 6870 is more likely, but even a 6950 would give you the Xbox to PS2 comparison.

20nm won't be ready until late 2014 if MS and Sony both wait for 2014, Nintendo is likely to have a lot of exclusives or timed exclusives for their box, and since development is so easy between the 360 and "Cafe" Developers will likely start using "Cafe" as the base unit with future consoles coming out, and simply scale back to 360, allowing their franchises to continue to become better looking and thus more desired while waiting for the dinosaurs that were the HD consoles, to move into found memory land.

This would create a PS1/PS2 situation for Nintendo, they would be the base console that all games are shown on first, so either Sony and MS come out with 28nm parts in 2013, thus making their GPU based on 6850 GPU's or even worse, the 6790 (the slight upgrade to the 6770/5770 which is 4870's twin, and will likely be even a closer comparison then xbox and ps2) leaving those consoles with a similar problem as we saw with 360 this gen, the first successful console will likely fill the base console of next gen, that all games are ported from.

If you are Sony or MS, you also have to worry about the other releasing later and having the definitive version of every port thanks to stronger hardware, thus 2014 is a good time to release your console.

If Nintendo has enough RAM (1GB main memory and maybe 256MB T1 ram (or 512mb slightly slower ram) and 20mb edram)
Has an online that is on par with or at least competitive to Live.
Truly reach out to third parties and prices the console between 299 and 349...
They will be the go to platform of this coming gen and there is very little Sony or Microsoft can realistically do about it.

Oh you. An online system on par with Live? Lol. We should pray they have an online system on par with PSN.

 

[Caramello]

Oh you. An online system on par with Live? Lol. We should pray they have an online system on par with PSN.

Well Reggie did say Xbox Live was the thing he most envied about the competition so we can dream

 

[Father_Brain]

Nintendo is likely to have a lot of exclusives or timed exclusives for their box.

Not an assumption I share at this point, unless they spend a hell of a lot on moneyhats.

 

[Cow Mengde]

BTW, Nintendo hasn't been giving out specs since the Wii, what makes you think Nintendo will give out the Cafe's specs? I mean, the 3DS is a beefy little system and all we know is the GPU is called PICA 200. Nintendo will probably do the same with Cafe. Just tell us it's a R700 with some tweaks with no numbers or what the exact chip will be.

 

[Syferz]

yeah, that is why I said, at least competitive with Live. We will see, still an improvement to Wii's online is at least a step in the right direction

 

[Jocchan]

BTW, Nintendo hasn't been giving out specs since the Wii, what makes you think Nintendo will give out the Cafe's specs? I mean, the 3DS is a beefy little system and all we know is the GPU is called PICA 200. Nintendo will probably do the same with Cafe. Just tell us it's a R700 with some tweaks with no numbers or what the exact chip will be.

Even worse, they will tell us its internal codename, like Hollywood and Broadway. Something like "Cappuccino by AMD", and that's it.

 

[From The Dust]

Even worse, they will tell us its internal codename, like Hollywood and Broadway. Something like "Cappuccino by AMD", and that's it.

What would the CPU be called? Latte?

 

[McHuj]

One thing to consider with the GPU power measurements as done in the above article is that they measure the whole card, not the just GPU.

In the case of the article above, this includes also includes 8 GDDR5 chips and numerous other components for interfacing to the PCI-E bus, video ports, power connectors. While that stuff isn't as power hungry as the GPU, it adds up. It wouldn't surprise me if it took up 20-25% of the total power requirement.

A console will integrate the CPU, GPU, and memory much more efficiently than PC components so they will be much more power efficient.

I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 6950-level performance out of a console launching i 2013.

 

[Syferz]

One thing to consider with the GPU power measurements as done in the above article is that they measure the whole card, not the just GPU.

In the case of the article above, this includes also includes 8 GDDR5 chips and numerous other components for interfacing to the PCI-E bus, video ports, power connectors. While that stuff isn't as power hungry as the GPU, it adds up. It wouldn't surprise me if it took up 20-25% of the total power requirement.

A console will integrate the CPU, GPU, and memory much more efficiently than PC components so they will be much more power efficient.

I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 6950-level performance out of a console launching i 2013.

From other articles I know the system power useage is around 300 under load for that gpu, so I'm pretty sure that article is only measuing the gpu, it needs to be manufactured @20nm to fit in a console, that isn't something that will happen until 2014. Ill make sure when I get home, but I'm 100% confident that you won't see a 2014 console sporting a 580gtx

 

[Jocchan]

What would the CPU be called? Latte?

Espresso.

Spoiler

And a brioche, please.

 

[Azure J]

Spoiler

And a brioche, please.

Thanks for breaking NDA on the orange blue port Jocchan...

 

[Mr_Brit]

Actually that was the power color version of the 6950, the standard card ran at about 140 on normal load and performed 10% better then that version you are talking about (same link, it's just if you actually read the page)

The 360 launched at 160watts, that is the size and power you would want to target your next console to be at or below. (though Sony's was higher I believe, and with another Nvidia card, they will certainly have to be higher again to get the same or similar performance.)

The 6950 is produced at 40nm, so if you shrink it by half, you'll lose 30% power usage, so about 100watts for that GPU, the CPU will need to pull in some watts too, with all other components also adding to heat, Hard drive would take up another 10 to 20watts, so I would assume that the GPU would need to be at about 80Watts @ launch, a 6870 is more likely, but even a 6950 would give you the Xbox to PS2 comparison.

20nm won't be ready until late 2014 if MS and Sony both wait for 2014, Nintendo is likely to have a lot of exclusives or timed exclusives for their box, and since development is so easy between the 360 and "Cafe" Developers will likely start using "Cafe" as the base unit with future consoles coming out, and simply scale back to 360, allowing their franchises to continue to become better looking and thus more desired while waiting for the dinosaurs that were the HD consoles, to move into found memory land.

This would create a PS1/PS2 situation for Nintendo, they would be the base console that all games are shown on first, so either Sony and MS come out with 28nm parts in 2013, thus making their GPU based on 6850 GPU's or even worse, the 6790 (the slight upgrade to the 6770/5770 which is 4870's twin, and will likely be even a closer comparison then xbox and ps2) leaving those consoles with a similar problem as we saw with 360 this gen, the first successful console will likely fill the base console of next gen, that all games are ported from.

If you are Sony or MS, you also have to worry about the other releasing later and having the definitive version of every port thanks to stronger hardware, thus 2014 is a good time to release your console.

If Nintendo has enough RAM (1GB main memory and maybe 256MB T1 ram (or 512mb slightly slower ram) and 20mb edram)
Has an online that is on par with or at least competitive to Live.
Truly reach out to third parties and prices the console between 299 and 349...
They will be the go to platform of this coming gen and there is very little Sony or Microsoft can realistically do about it.

No offense but if you don't know exactly what you're talking about do some research first to make sure you don't make so many mistakes that will mislead people who don't know a lot about hardware.

 

[Syferz]

No offense but if you don't know exactly what you're talking about do some research first to make sure you don't make so many mistakes that will mislead people who don't know a lot about hardware.

It would probably be more helpful to those you're trying to help from being mislead if you pointed out some of those mistakes, currently your post is less helpful then my own.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Assuming this is capable of Wii emulation without retaining the Wii chipset, which is a big assumption, would it mean the GPU would need at least 3MB of embedded 1T-SRAM or something similarly capable? Would increasing this amount be enough to compete, or is that type of RAM old hat these days?

 

[Jocchan]

Thanks for breaking NDA on the orange blue port Jocchan...

That's for the orange juice.

Spoiler

Whoops!

 

[Mr_Brit]

It would probably be more helpful to those you're trying to help from being mislead if you pointed out some of those mistakes, currently your post is less helpful then my own.

Alright:

• TSMC are launching bulk 20nm at the latest in late 2013, not 2014 as you said, this means that Sony and MS will definitely be using 20nm for their next gen consoles. In fact, it should be a bit sooner than late 2013.
• Power draw and heat output are not the same things, heat output is crucial, power draw is much less so, you cannot make estimates about heat output based solely on power draw so saying MS need to stick to 160W maximum for their next gen console is stretching the truth.
• No 2.5" HDD uses 20W and even if it did it wouldn't matter as they put out negligible amounts of heat, again, power draw is nowhere near as important as heat output
• TSMC are using confirmed to be using 3D transistors on the 20nm process just like Intel, Intel suggested a 50% power draw drop for the same components manufactured at 32nm and 22nm, the difference between a 40nm GPU and 20nm GPU should be at least that big and not 30% like you said
• You said the 360 used 160W, that is just the power draw at the wall and tell us nothing about the heat output which is far more important
• nvidia and ATI's latest cards became less efficient due to needing to support new DX11 features, their next gen card architectures will be more and not less efficient as they'll have accounted for that already.

 

[Neo Child]

Thanks for breaking NDA on the orange blue port Jocchan...

Whats the blue port for?

 

[McHuj]

From other articles I know the system power useage is around 300 under load for that gpu, so I'm pretty sure that article is only measuing the gpu, it needs to be manufactured @20nm to fit in a console, that isn't something that will happen until 2014. Ill make sure when I get home, but I'm 100% confident that you won't see a 2014 console sporting a 580gtx

For this test we measure power consumption of only the graphics card, via PCI-Express power connector(s) and PCI-Express bus slot.

The title of the graphs are also "card power consumption"

 

[Boney]

Not an assumption I share at this point, unless they spend a hell of a lot on moneyhats.

I think they're gonna have 1 or 2 good/ok/eh third party exclusives at launch.

Because they really need a reason for people to buy the system

 

[From The Dust]

Whats the blue port for?

jizz of gold will come out there

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

The title of the graphs are also "card power consumption"

I think? he meant other articles with that GPU had the whole PC (minus monitor) using 300 watt under load.

 

[donny2112]

Because they really need a reason for people to buy the system

Wouldn't that be Nintendo games as the reason? There'll be third-party ports/compilations for older games, a plenty. Relying on any third-party exclusive for Wii's successor to prop up sales doesn't seem like a good idea...

 

[McHuj]

Alright:

• TSMC are using confirmed to be using 3D transistors on the 20nm process just like Intel, Intel suggested a 50% power draw drop for the same components manufactured at 32nm and 22nm, the difference between a 40nm GPU and 20nm GPU should be at least that big and not 30% like you said

It's now been pushed to 14nm.

http://www.thinq.co.uk/2011/5/16/tsmc-pushes-finfet-tech-back-14nm-process-size/

Also, I don't think people should get their hopes up for new consoles launching at 22/20nm unless Intel is manufacturing them. I have no faith in TSMC and Global Foundries to get that out by 2014. I have no faith in them to execute and get that out on schedule.

 

[fawaz]

i bought a gx640
with 1gb 5850m
4gb ram
430 i5
can you guys tell me how it compares to the current consoles?

 

[Syferz]

Alright:

• TSMC are launching bulk 20nm at the latest in late 2013, not 2014 as you said, this means that Sony and MS will definitely be using 20nm for their next gen consoles. In fact, it should be a bit sooner than late 2013.
• Power draw and heat output are not the same things, heat output is crucial, power draw is much less so, you cannot make estimates about heat output based solely on power draw so saying MS need to stick to 160W maximum for their next gen console is stretching the truth.
• No 2.5" HDD uses 20W and even if it did it wouldn't matter as they put out negligible amounts of heat, again, power draw is nowhere near as important as heat output
• TSMC are using confirmed to be using 3D transistors on the 20nm process just like Intel, Intel suggested a 50% power draw drop for the same components manufactured at 32nm and 22nm, the difference between a 40nm GPU and 20nm GPU should be at least that big and not 30% like you said
• You said the 360 used 160W, that is just the power draw at the wall and tell us nothing about the heat output which is far more important

Wow I had no idea about the 3d transitors, that would be a major jump, hopefully they can produce better results then their first 40nm chips, still sounds like 2014 terroitory, but a jump that big would be worth it... ah, so what you are talking about is likely not possible till 2015... then I stand by my post, 20nm process, 2014 for a 6950, a 580gtx runs way too hot and is the next big jump up, so that card is a good indicator of what to expect from sony and ms.

 

[Boney]

Wouldn't that be Nintendo games as the reason? There'll be third-party ports/compilations for older games, a plenty. Relying on any third-party exclusive for Wii's successor to prop up sales doesn't seem like a good idea...

Well for the most part you're right. But it's in Nintendo's best interest to make it clear from day one that not only you can play nintendo games and third party games available on other systems, but other key third party offerings that will complement nintendo's lineup.

But I don't think they're just relying on them, they're persuing aggresive deals, at least that's what Iwata's comments lead me to believe.

 

[Father_Brain]

Wouldn't that be Nintendo games as the reason? There'll be third-party ports/compilations for older games, a plenty. Relying on any third-party exclusive for Wii's successor to prop up sales doesn't seem like a good idea...

I believe George Santayana would have something to say about that line of thinking.

 

[Shin Johnpv]

I really don't think MS and Sony are going to both wait till 2014 to launch their next consoles. This isn't a beaten battered on its last legs Sega that you're allowing to have a long head start. This is a money rich Nintendo, who is coming off just beating MS and Sony into the ground this generation. You REALLY think it would be wise, or prudent for MS and Sony to allow them a 2 + year head start on the generation? One if not both of them will have a system out in 2013.

 

[Syferz]

I really don't think MS and Sony are going to both wait till 2014 to launch their next consoles. This isn't a beaten battered on its last legs Sega that you're allowing to have a long head start. This is a money rich Nintendo, who is coming off just beating MS and Sony into the ground this generation. You REALLY think it would be wise, or prudent for MS and Sony to allow them a 2 + year head start on the generation? One if not both of them will have a system out in 2013.

The thing is Nintendo did not skimp much on hardware if the rumors are true, and anything theyrelease in 2013 won't give them the tech advantage they had this year, or even the one sonyhad over dreamcast. Still I agree 2013 is more sensible if they aren't worried about the other waiting for 20nm and being the most powerful. This has no mention of their current money sinks. MS just spent 500m advertising kinnec, and sony doesn't have the money to lose they did this gen. One is likely to wait and make money on their current platforms, and the other is likely to not want the inferior console.

 

[NEO0MJ]

I really don't think MS and Sony are going to both wait till 2014 to launch their next consoles. This isn't a beaten battered on its last legs Sega that you're allowing to have a long head start. This is a money rich Nintendo, who is coming off just beating MS and Sony into the ground this generation. You REALLY think it would be wise, or prudent for MS and Sony to allow them a 2 + year head start on the generation? One if not both of them will have a system out in 2013.

I agree. Maybe Sony will wait till 14, but no way will Microsoft wait until then to release it's next console.

 

[Erebus]

I agree. Maybe Sony will wait till 14, but no way will Microsoft wait until then to release it's next console.

There's no way Sony is letting MS with a full year head start like it happened with this gen. I believe both MS and Sony will have released their next-gen systems until late 2013.

 

[heyf00L]

Worst part about Nintendo having such a head start is that MS/Sony will have their photo copiers warmed up already to rip off every neat Cafe feature rather than having to release a Kinect/Move several years later as an add-on.

That's the worst part for Nintendo. Not necessarily the worst part for gamers.

 

[MYE]

Worst part about Nintendo having such a head start is that MS/Sony will have their photo copiers warmed up already to rip off every neat Cafe feature rather than having to release a Kinect/Move several years later as an add-on.

That's the worst part for Nintendo. Not necessarily the worst part for gamers.

They are used to it by now

 

[Deku]

Worst part about Nintendo having such a head start is that MS/Sony will have their photo copiers warmed up already to rip off every neat Cafe feature rather than having to release a Kinect/Move several years later as an add-on.

That's the worst part for Nintendo. Not necessarily the worst part for gamers.

That's always a concern, but coming last or 2nd has always been disadvantageous to them. They've always lost share.

The only time they've succeeded launching 2nd was the Wii.

As I noted many times, the 1 year head start they will likely have on this will matter if they use that time correctly.

 

[Cerebral Assassin]

That's always a concern, but coming last or 2nd has always been disadvantageous to them. They've always lost share.

The only time they've succeeded launching 2nd was the Wii.
.

SNES?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

SNES?

SNES still sold less than NES and had a more successful competitor in Genesis than NES ever had.

But I think it's kind of a stretch to put things in terms of lost share/gained share, because GCN->Wii is the only transition they've gained. Hard to generalize anything.

 

[Deku]

SNES?

US marketshare down by half, European share also down. .

Granted I should clarify by saying launching first isn't a silver bullet, but as part of an overall strategy it can be quite effective.

Plenty of challengers have tried to launch early and failed also. But Nintendo has the brand , internal games and most importantly, the financial strength to launch early and stay with it for five years.


I honestly think DC would have been a major platform if Sega didn't run out of cash. Sony only had to wait them out and use the PS2 to bludgeon them and slow DC sales in the crucial 2000 season.

SNES still sold less than NES and had a more successful competitor in Genesis than NES ever had.

But I think it's kind of a stretch to put things in terms of lost share/gained share, because GCN->Wii is the only transition they've gained. Hard to generalize anything.

Generalizing is tricky, but as I noted, financial strength is key. If they can stick with a console for 5 years on top of launching early, the extra year headstart will allow for mistakes that will usually be highly detrimental to them.

All of the failed early launches were either missing financial power, or internal games to drive hardware. Nintendo has both and this is the first time they also have the early mover advantage. It's really a golden opportunity. If they fail now, they only have themselves to blame.

 

[Graphics Horse]

In 2009 there was a rumour about PS4 being lined up for 2012 and using a high spec PowerVR Series 6 based GPU. The same rumour added they'd also be using a GPU from the PowerVR 5xt family for a PSP successor, and turned out to be true.
If Nintendo's new console is ruffling enough feathers, I wonder if we could see both rivals having at least a backup plan to launch in 2013, if not earlier.

 

[Cerebral Assassin]

SNES still sold less than NES and had a more successful competitor in Genesis than NES ever had.

But I think it's kind of a stretch to put things in terms of lost share/gained share, because GCN->Wii is the only transition they've gained. Hard to generalize anything.

I was more referring to the successful part of the comment , & they maintained their position in the industry (most successful console of its Gen). Also I don't really think launching 2nd hurt them, wasn't it more to do with 3rd parties wanting a viable alternative to Nintendo in the market (either way that was 29 years ago I doubt it has any real bearing on the conversation).
If we are talking solely about marketshare, I would expect the Cafe to sell less than the Wii regardlessof when it launches(depending on what its unknown about it).

 

[herzogzwei1989]

I think there will be a significant difference between Cafe and Xbox3/PS4 if Cafe uses a Shader Model 4.1 GPU (R7xx) and Xbox3/PS4 use Shader DirectX 12/Shader Model 6, but it won't be anything like Wii vs 360/PS3. Not this time.

 

[Syferz]

I think there will be a significant difference between Cafe and Xbox3/PS4 if Cafe uses a Shader Model 4.1 GPU (R7xx) and Xbox3/PS4 use Shader DirectX 12/Shader Model 6, but it won't be anything like Wii vs 360/PS3. Not this time.

Thats a hard one to call, Direct x12 will come out later, I think we will have a direct x 11.1 with the release of windows 8, I don't think they will do 12, but even if it did Microsoft put out dx10 december of 2005, and Xbox 360 isn't dx10 compatible. With so many games currently ignoring dx11, it's also sort of hard to say that will make a difference, and in the end only Xbox and PC's use DX, Sony and Nintendo use their own API (I guess you can say the same for Microsoft, since they create DX)

 

[fawaz]

i bought a gx640
with 1gb 5850m
4gb ram
430 i5
can you guys tell me how it compares to the current consoles?

anyone?

 

[Jaagen]

anyone?

No contest.

 

[PuppetSlave]

anyone?

It kicks the shit out of them. It crushes their bones, drinks their blood and spits on their ancestors.

 

[Syferz]

i bought a gx640
with 1gb 5850m
4gb ram
430 i5
can you guys tell me how it compares to the current consoles?

anyone?

Well, it has enough RAM to run on Win7 great without hindering game play, it's got a pretty powerful card that should play ports of any 360/PS3 game at 1080p at a high frame rate, and the processor shouldn't really bottleneck the system, but compared to Cafe and the likely successors to ps3/xbox360, I would say finding a game that runs at the same frame rate with the same level of detail will be near impossible on anything actually using those machine's power.

Coding at low level (not on top of windows 7) with a closed box system (as what consoles are) they will produce graphics beyond what your pc can but, it's tough to say how much, since those games are fine tuned for the hardware, while a pc game is shoehorned onto various hardware... but you should expect to be able to play ports of those games even if you have to slide the detail bar to the left just a bit.

 

[udivision]

anyone?

It can play Wii games better than the Wii, but that's it.

:I

 

[Log4Girlz]

It kicks the shit out of them. It crushes their bones, drinks their blood and spits on their ancestors.

And farts in their general direction.

 

[chaosblade]

That's a laptop, and a Mobile 5850. So it's more like a 5750.

It is still more powerful than consoles and should run any game fairly well at 1680x1050. Some games will require more sacrifices (AA, medium settings, lower resolution, etc) than others.