cormack12
Gold Member
Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce9088men9xo.amp
(....more at link)
Last year, India nudged past China to become the world's most populous country, according to UN estimates.
With nearly 1.45 billion people now, you'd think the country would be quiet about having more children. But guess what? The chatter has suddenly picked up.
Leaders of two southern states – Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu – have recently advocated more children.
India's fertility rate has fallen substantially - from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to the current rate of two.
Fertility rates have fallen below the replacement level of two births per woman in 17 of the 29 states and territories. (A replacement level is one at which new births are sufficient to maintain a stable population.)
Today, the five southern states have total fertility rates below 1.6, with Karnataka at 1.6 and Tamil Nadu at 1.4. In other words, fertility rates in these states match or are less than many European countries.
The key challenge, according to demographers, is India's rapid ageing driven by declining fertility rates. While countries like France and Sweden took 120 and 80 years respectively to double their aging population from 7% to 14%, India is expected to reach this milestone in just 28 years, says Mr Goli.
But in India, fertility rates fell rapidly despite modest socio-economic progress, thanks to aggressive family welfare programmes that promoted small families through targets, incentives, and disincentives.
The unintended consequence? Take Andhra Pradesh, for instance. Its fertility rate is 1.5, on par with Sweden, but its per capita income is 28 times lower, says Mr Goli. With mounting debt and limited resources, can states like these support higher pensions or social security for a rapidly aging population?
In other words, Mr Goli says, "India is getting old before getting rich".
Fewer children also mean a rising old-age dependency ratio, leaving fewer caregivers for an expanding elderly demographic. Demographers warn that India's healthcare, community centres and old-age homes are unprepared for this shift.
(....more at link)
Last year, India nudged past China to become the world's most populous country, according to UN estimates.
With nearly 1.45 billion people now, you'd think the country would be quiet about having more children. But guess what? The chatter has suddenly picked up.
Leaders of two southern states – Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu – have recently advocated more children.
India's fertility rate has fallen substantially - from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to the current rate of two.
Fertility rates have fallen below the replacement level of two births per woman in 17 of the 29 states and territories. (A replacement level is one at which new births are sufficient to maintain a stable population.)
Today, the five southern states have total fertility rates below 1.6, with Karnataka at 1.6 and Tamil Nadu at 1.4. In other words, fertility rates in these states match or are less than many European countries.
The key challenge, according to demographers, is India's rapid ageing driven by declining fertility rates. While countries like France and Sweden took 120 and 80 years respectively to double their aging population from 7% to 14%, India is expected to reach this milestone in just 28 years, says Mr Goli.
But in India, fertility rates fell rapidly despite modest socio-economic progress, thanks to aggressive family welfare programmes that promoted small families through targets, incentives, and disincentives.
The unintended consequence? Take Andhra Pradesh, for instance. Its fertility rate is 1.5, on par with Sweden, but its per capita income is 28 times lower, says Mr Goli. With mounting debt and limited resources, can states like these support higher pensions or social security for a rapidly aging population?
In other words, Mr Goli says, "India is getting old before getting rich".
Fewer children also mean a rising old-age dependency ratio, leaving fewer caregivers for an expanding elderly demographic. Demographers warn that India's healthcare, community centres and old-age homes are unprepared for this shift.