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Mafia |OT| When Death is on the Line

  • Thread starter Deleted member 231381
  • Start date
P

Palmer_v1

Member
traube said:
Maybe they noticed that they screwed up with the list and decided to make a scape goat out of LoC to strengthen their position.

But I think that is very unlikely. Just wanted to write it down in case it should indeed be true. So I can quote myself after the game has ended with "HA! I knew it!" :D
Click to expand...

I don't take Ultron's pointing out LoC's mistake as proof of anything other than LoC posted something factually wrong. It's in mafia's interest to point out those mistakes as well, since there's a good chance someone else would have caught it instead, and that might throw further suspicion on Ultron, Sometimes the mafia needs to throw their own members under the buss.

Just agreeing overall that we can't really read into that much.
 
Z

Zippedpinhead

Member
Palmer_v1 said:
Town has lost 7 Ordinary Tourists, 4 power roles, and 2 passive roles. We would have 7 tourists left. We have one known power role(Ultron), 1 alleged(RNH), and whatever I am(You'll find out when I die). That's 4 unknown tourists. Assuming there aren't further neutral roles beyond Karkador.
Click to expand...

I think I get what you are saying with your role...
 
T

Timeaisis

Member
Ultron has helped town consistently from the beginning of the game. He's the last person I suspect at this juncture.

Also, I know Palmer was asking about this earlier, but I'm a regular Townie. I have no special role. Dunno if that helps us suss out the math of "how many special people we have left", but I thought I'd reiterate it.
 
T

tomakasatnav

Member
There's a comfort knowing MattyG is a town member, finally knowing for definite someone can be trusted. From his perspective, I don't know if there's much to point me being either side (Palmer has down as Mafia which at the moment I'm struggling to think of anything I can do to alter) and of course everyone will plead innocence, but for me it's nice to know one person who can be trusted in all of this.

I want to say two with Ultron, but like with not wanting to answer a question at school for fear of getting it wrong, I can't get rid of that nagging 'what if he's tricked us all' feeling.

I'm still as lost as ever, I have no hunches and don't want to heap pressure on MattyG, since his role brings no further information by purely following his instinct.

So, are these the scenarios for last night:

1 - Mafia target Karkador taking 1 life (which I guess not, if 1 life was taken earlier in the game?)
2 - Karkador targets someone and is blocked (could be mafia or town target, hasn't said) but Mafia take out StayDead
3 - Mafia targets someone and is blocked (suggests town has a role which can't be killed, or someone chooses someone to keep safe that night?) but Karkador takes out StayDead
4 - Mafia doesn't act
5 - Karkador doesn't act

4 and 5 both unlikely (and presumably Crab got all actions in, even though someone took some time hence the reminder?)

Any others that I should be thinking about?
 
P

Palmer_v1

Member
tomakasatnav said:
There's a comfort knowing MattyG is a town member, finally knowing for definite someone can be trusted. From his perspective, I don't know if there's much to point me being either side (Palmer has down as Mafia which at the moment I'm struggling to think of anything I can do to alter) and of course everyone will plead innocence, but for me it's nice to know one person who can be trusted in all of this.

I want to say two with Ultron, but like with not wanting to answer a question at school for fear of getting it wrong, I can't get rid of that nagging 'what if he's tricked us all' feeling.

I'm still as lost as ever, I have no hunches and don't want to heap pressure on MattyG, since his role brings no further information by purely following his instinct.

So, are these the scenarios for last night:

1 - Mafia target Karkador taking 1 life (which I guess not, if 1 life was taken earlier in the game?)
2 - Karkador targets someone and is blocked (could be mafia or town target, hasn't said) but Mafia take out StayDead
3 - Mafia targets someone and is blocked (suggests town has a role which can't be killed, or someone chooses someone to keep safe that night?) but Karkador takes out StayDead
4 - Mafia doesn't act
5 - Karkador doesn't act

4 and 5 both unlikely (and presumably Crab got all actions in, even though someone took some time hence the reminder?)

Any others that I should be thinking about?
Click to expand...

I think 5 is impossible. I'm pretty sure karkador has to target someone EVERY night.
 
P

Palmer_v1

Member
Karkador, can you confirm that you have to target every night? I'm not finding a place where you said that, and I don't want to spread misinformation.
 
T

Timeaisis

Member
Actually, StayDead likely targeted a mafia, who detected it. Fearing StayDead had some role that could incriminate them, they killed him.

That makes sense. Doesn't get us anywhere, but makes sense.

Palmer, can you tell us anything else about your role that may help us?
 
Z

Zippedpinhead

Member
There could also be a full doctor that doesn't get announced when he saves someone. It makes as much sense as a town role blocker.

Stay dead could have been who LoC was referring too. That could be the last person he saw that targetted someone that the mafia did not have an idea of their ability. He tells his crew to target him and they think they got another major power role out.
 
P

Palmer_v1

Member
Timeaisis said:
Actually, StayDead likely targeted a mafia, who detected it. Fearing StayDead had some role that could incriminate them, they killed him.

That makes sense. Doesn't get us anywhere, but makes sense.

Palmer, can you tell us anything else about your role that may help us?
Click to expand...

Nothing that I should reveal today. If I die tonight, it will make some things clearer, and if not, I can probably explain a lot more tomorrow, depending on how my kill works out tonight.
 
A

AbsolutBro

Member
Palmer_v1 said:
Nothing that I should reveal today. If I die tonight, it will make some things clearer, and if not, I can probably explain a lot more tomorrow, depending on how my kill works out tonight.
Click to expand...

Well, I guess you're not pretending to be a sleepwalker anymore? Or are you a sleepwalking murderer or something?
 
P

Palmer_v1

Member
AbsolutBro said:
Well, I guess you're not pretending to be a sleepwalker anymore? Or are you a sleepwalking murderer or something?
Click to expand...

2aaf22fa330aa46b3820e7a2b0cc836e.jpg


Seriously though, unless something changes, I'm not revealing any more info about my role today. To help Karkador/others, I'll post the 2 people I plan to go after before the day ends.
 
K

Karkador

Banned
Palmer_v1 said:
You're picking an odd time to implode.
Click to expand...

Implode? I'm already out, and I got my mafia kill. If people wanna send me off, I'm okay with that, but it would currently make it a net gain for mafia.

You're indicating that you're a killer. If you're not willing to explain anything else about your role, I'm gonna assume you're a neutral player with your own win condition. Or a Mafia trying to disguise your own kills.

Furthermore, Town cannot afford three kills at this point. Hellll naw.

I'm useful because I'm a known quantity at this point, and I can withstand Mafia attacks, and my win condition is far, away.

Without any further details, you're just an extreme liability.
 
T

Timeaisis

Member
He's trying to force you to roleclaim early, Palmer. I know you don't want to, but it might be time...

I think at this point you've painted a large enough target on your back with the esoteric posts that the mafia knows your a power role at this point.
 
P

Palmer_v1

Member
Timeaisis said:
He's trying to force you to roleclaim early, Palmer. I know you don't want to, but it might be time...

I think at this point you've painted a large enough target on your back with the esoteric posts that the mafia knows your a power role at this point.
Click to expand...

Yeah. Doing the count of how many total players exist made me realize I was running out of time to use my abilities, so this is how it has to go down. There are really only a few ways they prevent me from accomplishing what I want. Lynch me, which should also provide some information to town, Role block me, which I'm not even sure they can do, and I hope a town blocker is smart enough not to do to me, or convince Karkador to target me tonight.

I didn't want to get rid of Karkador yet, but he may need to be lynched today.

If Ultron asks, though, I'll reveal every single thing I know.
 
P

Palmer_v1

Member
That is to say, go ahead and lynch me if you absolutely think I'm anti-town, or you're Mafia. Just remember all of this when I die.
 
T

Timeaisis

Member
I don't think you're mafia, but I do think other people think so, and Kark's obviously gunning for you now. So it's either get killed by him, get killed by a lynch, or explain yourself and hope to god we can protect you.
 
E

El Topo

Member
There's something that gives me doubt about the credibility of one of the participants, even though it doesn't make any sense at all if he's mafia. Will have to think about it.
 
Z

Zippedpinhead

Member
Palmer_v1 said:
Yeah. Doing the count of how many total players exist made me realize I was running out of time to use my abilities, so this is how it has to go down. There are really only a few ways they prevent me from accomplishing what I want. Lynch me, which should also provide some information to town, Role block me, which I'm not even sure they can do, and I hope a town blocker is smart enough not to do to me, or convince Karkador to target me tonight.

I didn't want to get rid of Karkador yet, but he may need to be lynched today.

If Ultron asks, though, I'll reveal every single thing I know.
Click to expand...

So what you are saying is that you shouldn't be killed today, (though there will be information that we can learn from your death) but if you die after tonight it won't be as bad?

Alright, from your own posts, it can be inferred that whatever ability you have targets. but you have also implied that what ever you are targeting or doing, isn't really doing anything important... yet.

Again, I think I get what you are saying.

Of course, there is always the possibility that you have some sort of alternate win condition, but I think three (Tourist Win, Mafia win, and Serial Killer win) is more than likely the limit for this game.
 
U

ultron87

Member
Palmer_v1 said:
Yeah. Doing the count of how many total players exist made me realize I was running out of time to use my abilities, so this is how it has to go down. There are really only a few ways they prevent me from accomplishing what I want. Lynch me, which should also provide some information to town, Role block me, which I'm not even sure they can do, and I hope a town blocker is smart enough not to do to me, or convince Karkador to target me tonight.

I didn't want to get rid of Karkador yet, but he may need to be lynched today.

If Ultron asks, though, I'll reveal every single thing I know.
Click to expand...

So, I'm pretty sure you are town. Or at least not Mafia. LoC visited you on Night 1. If the Mafia somehow set up a insane ploy where they forego information to visit one of the their own number on the chance that an investigative role that functions like mine sees it by visiting one out of 20+ players, then kudos. They got me. All in all that seems pretty unlikely.

So yeah, going with that I have to trust your judgment that remaining concealed is more important than any information you could offer.
 
P

Palmer_v1

Member
Zippedpinhead said:
So what you are saying is that you shouldn't be killed today, (though there will be information that we can learn from your death) but if you die after tonight it won't be as bad?

Alright, from your own posts, it can be inferred that whatever ability you have targets. but you have also implied that what ever you are targeting or doing, isn't really doing anything important... yet.

Again, I think I get what you are saying.

Of course, there is always the possibility that you have some sort of alternate win condition, but I think three (Tourist Win, Mafia win, and Serial Killer win) is more than likely the limit for this game.
Click to expand...

I should accomplish something even if I die tonight. I don't need any town power roles wasted on keeping me alive. Obviously getting lynched hoses me pretty bad, but I feel like I've earned enough trust from the the town for them to just let this ride.

The biggest wildcard is who karkador targets.

I guarantee that no tourist will be harmed by my actions if people trust me.
 
P

Palmer_v1

Member
ultron87 said:
So, I'm pretty sure you are town. Or at least not Mafia. LoC visited you on Night 1. If the Mafia somehow set up a insane ploy where they forego information to visit one of the their own number on the chance that an investigative role that functions like mine sees it by visiting one out of 20+ players, then kudos. They got me. All in all that seems pretty unlikely.

So yeah, going with that I have to trust your judgment that remaining concealed is more important than any information you could offer.
Click to expand...

Thanks! I'll be back in a few hours to check in for any changes.
 
K

kingkitty

Member
Palmer is off the mark when it comes to me being mafia. He seems pretty dead set tho.

But lynchin him? nah

Karkador could still be useful.

Now here's some tales from my butt.

Right before Day 4 ended, pants posted this:

pants said:
Two things.

1) The reason I voted no lynch is it drags the game on longer (since less people are killed) and this gives us more time for the cop to check things out and us to deduce things.

2) Everyone coming out to 'save' Kalor by voting Amir0x is suspect
Click to expand...

Here were the results:

Kalor: 7 / 11 [kingkitty, Amir0x, Timeaisis, Rembrandt, traube, irfaanator, RobotNinjaHornets]

Amir0x: 4 / 11 [Kalor, Palmer_v1, ultron87, Zippedpinhead]

No Lynch: 3 / 11 [QuantumBro, Lord of Castamere, pants]
Click to expand...

Would mafia really risk putting suspicion on their own members? I mean, I guess. But it doesn't seem like a necessary thing to do.

So if I take the survivors out who voted for Amirox, you get Palmer, ultron, and zippedpinhead.

Who's left? kingkitty, Timeaisis, traube, and RobotNinjaHornets.

I think Lord of Castamere and pants voted No Lynch because it was a win/win. Kalor or Amir0x, it didn't matter. Although I'm sure they put one or two mafia on Kalor's side just to make sure there's no tie.

Now lets took at Day 6:
No Lynch: 6 / 10 [tomakasatnav, ultron87, RobotNinjaHornets, Lord of Castamere, traube, El Topo]

RobotNinjaHornets: 4 / 10 [Quantumbro, Timeaisis, Zippedpinhead, Palmer_v1]
Click to expand...

It was pretty close. But why did Lord of Castamere vote No Lynch? If RobotNinjaHornets was a townie, why not vote for him? Or at least, don't vote at all?

There was also pants. Both he and Castamere could have swayed the votes towards RobotNinjaHornet's demise.

It seems to me, that RobotNinjaHornets is...a bit more than meets the eye.

Now lets look at Day 7
Rembrandt: 7 / 10 [Timeaisis, Palmer_v1, kingkitty, Zippedpinhead, StayDead, Quantumbro, El Topo]

Karkador: 6 / 10 [Karkador, traube, MattyG, Lord of Castamere, pants, ultron87]
Click to expand...

So lets take out the people pants believed were "suspicious" for voting Amirox. Also the people were are dead, not including known mafia. Also Karkador (if he really is a serial killer).
Now it looks like this:
Rembrandt: 7 / 10 [Timeaisis, kingkitty, El Topo]

Karkador: 6 / 10 [traube, Lord of Castamere, pants]
Click to expand...

traube looks kinda interesting.

anywho

People I think might be mafia:
RobotNinjaHornets (just odd stuff)
traube (maybe, I think traube could be voting in pairs with another mafia member, just like how pants and Lord of Castamere voted in pairs)

I've don't think I've led a charge towards anyone in this game yet...but I feel like my time is numbered here. I gotta try something.

RobotNinjaHornets
 
T

Timeaisis

Member
kingkitty said:
Palmer is off the mark when it comes to me being mafia. He seems pretty dead set tho.

But lynchin him? nah

Karkador could still be useful.

Now here's some tales from my butt.

Right before Day 4 ended, pants posted this:



Here were the results:



Would mafia really risk putting suspicion on their own members? I mean, I guess. But it doesn't seem like a necessary thing to do.

So if I take the survivors out who voted for Amirox, you get Palmer, ultron, and zippedpinhead.

Who's left? kingkitty, Timeaisis, traube, and RobotNinjaHornets.

I think Lord of Castamere and pants voted No Lynch because it was a win/win. Kalor or Amir0x, it didn't matter. Although I'm sure they put one or two mafia on Kalor's side just to make sure there's no tie.

Now lets took at Day 6:


It was pretty close. But why did Lord of Castamere vote No Lynch? If RobotNinjaHornets was a townie, why not vote for him? Or at least, don't vote at all?

There was also pants. Both he and Castamere could have swayed the votes towards RobotNinjaHornet's demise.

It seems to me, that RobotNinjaHornets is...a bit more than meets the eye.

Now lets look at Day 7


So lets take out the people pants believed were "suspicious" for voting Amirox. Also the people were are dead, not including known mafia. Also Karkador (if he really is a serial killer).
Now it looks like this:


traube looks kinda interesting.

anywho

People I think might be mafia:
RobotNinjaHornets (just odd stuff)
traube (maybe, I think traube could be voting in pairs with another mafia member, just like how pants and Lord of Castamere voted in pairs)

I've don't think I've led a charge towards anyone in this game yet...but I feel like my time is numbered here. I gotta try something.

RobotNinjaHornets
Click to expand...

This is some damn fine analysis. I'm going to give RNH another day to chime in, but this pretty much solidifies my vote for him at the present moment. Day 4 and 6 are especially interesting given that the mafia could've swayed the vote towards RNH and lynched him, but didn't.
 
T

Timeaisis

Member
I want to reiterate kingkitty's point, because I think this is very, very important.

Day 6

No Lynch: 6 / 10 [tomakasatnav, ultron87, RobotNinjaHornets, Lord of Castamere, traube, El Topo]

RobotNinjaHornets: 4 / 10 [Quantumbro, Timeaisis, Zippedpinhead, Palmer_v1]
Click to expand...

Note here, we've got at least two mafia members (LoC and pants) not voting for RNH. We know they were mafia. Had they have voted for RNH, they could've tied. All that would be required would be another mafia coming forward to seal the deal. It would've been an easy kill for them, especially after all the information of RNH came out. So...why didn't they do this? Either, they didn't co-ordinate the dogpiling well enough (which they've easily done before) or RNH is mafia. The only other alternative is they didn't want to come off as suspicious after RNH's "reveal". But, again, there was still plenty of evidence against him at that point, in my mind.

I even pointed it out...and guess who defended RNH, and shifted it towards Ultron.

traube said:
Timeaisis said:
There's only a few possibilities here:

1) RNH AND Ultron are both mafia
2) Both are town
3) RNH is mafia and has a non-kill role

You better post your list of information quick, RNH.
Click to expand...
4) Ultron is mafia and has a non-kill role

or am I missing something? Basically we are not smarter than before.
Click to expand...
 
K

Karkador

Banned
I wanna reiterate that it's incredible that RNH got off the hook with such a flimsy excuse.

And no, he has never come back to expand on what his role is

And the role he's supposed to be was killed yesterday.
 
E

El Topo

Member
Karkador said:
I wanna reiterate that it's incredible that RNH got off the hook with such a flimsy excuse.

And no, he has never come back to expand on what his role is

And the role he's supposed to be was killed yesterday.
Click to expand...

Huh. If he was mafia that would also convince me of what I would then believe to be the final mafia member.
 
T

Timeaisis

Member
Lord of Castamere said:
Sorry I've been caught up in the Order. So I read the arguments and like the last few weeks I'm not feeling it. We're still blindly pawing forward without any guidance.

Without a soild argument base, besides inactive, I'm gonna stay with the No lynch.

The sad fact is I'm not the most active person here either, so if I support a campaign against them what arguments could I have when my ticket is called?

VOTE: No Lynch
Click to expand...

Oh look LoC was defending RNH as well.
 
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