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Mafia |OT| When Death is on the Line

  • Thread starter Deleted member 231381
  • Start date
T

tomakasatnav

Member
Zippedpinhead said:
Tomaksatnav, MattyG, Kingkitty, Traube,

Are you four weighing your options on whether to Lynch, No Lynch? Are you not sold on Lynching karkador? Do you have other suggestions?

There are only 10 of us in the game. Please let us know what you are thinking about Lynching...
Click to expand...

Well, we have to lynch him eventually. It's a balance of how long we can leave him, while I'm guessing not learning anything when we lynch him, and take out any potential mafia kills. I can get on board with a vote for him, given he's being less forth coming with information now there must be a chance of him winning?

Palmer and Traube are my other suspicions because of role claims. More leaning towards Traube because I think it puts us in an OK position either way (We either get a mafia lynched, or if it confirms his role we could potentially confirm two town)

Hoping MattyG gets a chance to catch up, though his role gives him no info, happier listening to a guaranteed townie's thoughts.
 
Z

Zippedpinhead

Member
traube said:
I think we are just waiting for crab to end this day. So no more game talk.
Click to expand...

Karkador voted for El Topo pushing it to 5 votes for Karkador, 1 for el topo and 4 undecided.

A plurality (so if the day ended today karkador would die) BUT the day does not end until tomorrow.

And even if we do have to go until tomorrow to get to the next night phase, I really want to get feedback from the players that remain (thank you Tomakasatnav)
 
P

Palmer_v1

Member
I thought the day was ended. I wasn't going to talk "game" any more. If it really is only 5 votes for Karkador, I guess the game is still technically going.
 
T

Timeaisis

Member
Oh wait so the day isn't over? Karkador what is the El Topo vote significance? Are you secretly trying to tell us he was your target or are you just being Karakador-ish?
 
Z

Zippedpinhead

Member
Timeaisis said:
Oh wait so the day isn't over? Karkador what is the El Topo vote significance? Are you secretly trying to tell us he was your target or are you just being Karakador-ish?
Click to expand...

I'm fairly confident that he would not make it that easy. I could be wrong, but to give us the person he has been targeting like that. It doesn't sound like Karkador.
 
M

MattyG

Banned
tomakasatnav said:
Hoping MattyG gets a chance to catch up, though his role gives him no info, happier listening to a guaranteed townie's thoughts.
Click to expand...
At this point, I'm actually thinking that lynching Karkador is a bad idea. He's a known value. Could he turn and kill a townie? Yes, but he could also kill a mafia member or at least maybe help us find out who is one. Right now, I think it's better to target those unknown values who are suspected of being mafia. Presently, Kark seems compliant. If someone dies and we suspect Kark of betraying us, we lynch him, plain and simple. I just don't see what reason he would have to do that (although he may have a very good reason, I don't know what his win conditions are).

Basically I think Kark could be of some value to the town, as he seems cooperative, and killing him right now just uses up a day that could have been spent trying to root out the remaining mafia members. The only problem with this plan is that we don't really have a solid idea of who is mafia, so we run the risk of lynching a townie by accident (as we've been prone to do) and just further thinning our numbers.

That was a lot of rambling. Let me know if my line of thinking is at all faulty, but this is what I'm thinking our best play is right now. Do we have a list of who we suspect to be mafia and why? Or a list of people we're sure are town and the evidence proving it?
 
Z

Zatoth

Member
Sry. Thought the day ended already. On mobile now. Will write more later.

El Topo do you like to say something about Karka's vote?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
AbsolutBro said:
Karkador has not officially unvoteed for himself, but I assume his most recent vote for El Topo over rides his first vote?
Click to expand...

Oops, good point. Karkador gets a narrow reprieve from death then, at least until he gets one more vote. I'll chuck an extra day on for wasting people's time, my apologies. Back to the strange and amusing bargaining process!
 
T

Timeaisis

Member
Can we at least get some activity on here? Let's vote or something. Talk about suspects. Or who's definitely town. C'mon. We had some good momentum for a while there.
 
K

kingkitty

Member
Part 1

This is a compilation of posts from people who are still alive (excluding Karkador, and Mattyg). I've also included posts from dead mafia. Only finger pointing towards survivors and dead mafia will be mentioned.

These posts range from vague suspicions to direct finger pointing. As you see from Lord of Castamere's post against RobotNinjaHornets, if a mafia member looks too suspicious, other mafia might throw that person under the bus in order to gain townie trust. It's also not out of the realm of possibility that some mafia members might post a short, vague, one-off suspicion towards it's own allies, in order to look trustworthy.

I've excluded most lynch posts, besides a few key ones that I think are important. I also didn't bother looking at most of Day 8 conversations because Lord of Castamere died pretty quickly, and without any push back.

There might be some mistakes and missing a few important posts, but for now here it is.

Timeaisis

Timeaisis against Palmer_v1:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=146558513&postcount=150
Timeaisis against tomakasatnav:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=147251591&postcount=293
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=147745667&postcount=411
Timeaisis VOTES for RobotNinjaHornets (An early vote for this mafia):
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=154625434&postcount=975
Timeaisis against RobotNinjaHornets:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=154637071&postcount=1002
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=155388463&postcount=1024
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=155695417&postcount=1093
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=155791744&postcount=1103 (slightly)
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=158260816&postcount=1394
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=158317774&postcount=1443
Timeaisis against RobotNinjaHornets and traube:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=158318704&postcount=1445
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=158321104&postcount=1449

Palmer_v1

Palmer_v1 against Timeaisis:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149368568&postcount=510
Palmer_v1 against traube and kingkitty:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=147071642&postcount=232
Palmer_v1 VOTES for El Topo, is against traube, and Lord of Castamere:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=151307861&postcount=680
Palmer_v1 against kingkitty, Timeaisis, traube, and RobotNinjaHornets:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=152200409&postcount=765
Palmer_v1 VOTES for RobotNinjaHornets (An early vote for this mafia):
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=154145633&postcount=931
Palmer_v1 against AbsoluteBro, kingkitty, Lord of Castamere, RobotNinjaHornets, and tomakasatnav:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=155817493&postcount=1140
Palmer_v1 against Lord of Castamere:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=157272490&postcount=1294
Palmer_v1 against Absolutebro, and kingkitty:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=158113063&postcount=1352
Palmer_v1 against AbsoluteBro, kingkitty, and tomakasatnav:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=158247646&postcount=1380
Palmer_v1 against RobotNinjaHornets, and traube:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=158349553&postcount=1453

Zippedpinhead

Zippedpinhead against Palmer_v1:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149732282&postcount=530
Zippedpinhead against Lord of Castamere:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=151316084&postcount=684
Zippedpinhead against Timeaisis, RobotNinjaHornets, Lord of Castamere, and Pants:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=152226746&postcount=766
Zippedpinhead against traube:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=154446733&postcount=948
Zippedpinhead VOTES for RobotNinjaHornets, is also against traube (An early vote for this mafia):
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=154597192&postcount=969
Zippedpinhead against RobotNinjaHornets:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=155514661&postcount=1050

El Topo

El Topo against Palmer_v1:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150112805&postcount=575
El Topo VOTES for Lord of Castamere (An early first (?) vote for this mafia):
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=153602636&postcount=903
El Topo VOTES for RobotNinjaHornets (An early first vote for this mafia):
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=154077626&postcount=927
El Topo against RobotNinjaHornets, tomakasatnav, Absolutebro:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=154078532&postcount=928
El Topo against RobotNinjaHornets:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=154624876&postcount=974
El Topo against Lord of Castamere:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=155821639&postcount=1151

kingkitty

kingkitty VOTES for RobotNinjaHornets, is also against traube (Led a charge against a mafia):
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=158316274&postcount=1440

AbsolutBro

AbsolutBro against Palmer_v1:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=158254291&postcount=1390

tomakasatnav

????????????

traube

traube against Timeaisis, and Palmer_v1:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=149362451&postcount=509
traube against Timeaisis:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150104261&postcount=568
traube against Timeaisis, and Palmer_v1:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=151310489&postcount=682
traube against Palmer_v1:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=152175056&postcount=764
traube VOTES for RobotNinjaHornets (Could be a mafia saving himself, could be town):
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=158575234&postcount=1558

~~~RobotNinjaHornets~~~

RobotNinjaHornets VOTES for traube (Could be mafia sacrificing mafia, could be mafia voting for town):
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=158440174&postcount=1510

~~~Lord of Castamere~~~

Lord of Castamere against El Topo:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=151317785&postcount=685
Lord of Castamere against RobotNinjaHornets (Mafia trying to look like town by pooping on another suspicious mafia):
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=155572771&postcount=1065

~~~Pants~~~

Pants against Palmer v1, and Zippedpinhead:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=151570247&postcount=741
Pants against Zippedpinhead:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=152305388&postcount=782
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=152310425&postcount=784

Part 2

Now I look at every surviving member, except myself, Mattyg, and Karkador. Using the posts I've compiled, and the voting activity, I've reached some conclusions (and a few guesses) when it comes to who is not mafia allied with the various member.

Say that I, kingkitty, was mafia. In this alternative universe, me and the deceased Kalor could have never been in the same mafia. That's because I voted to lynch kalor in two consecutive days, and tried to justify that he was the mafia. I wasn't trying to save my own skin. We were still in the early "lynch without much proof" stage. My behavior would say that it would be very unlikely that I was potentially mafia allied with Kalor.

So anyways, he's my thoughts.

Timeaisis:

not mafia allied with Palmer_v1 (60 percent sure)
not mafia allied with tomakasatnav
not mafia allied with Zippedpinhead
not mafia allied with El Topo
not mafia allied with traube

is Timeaisis mafia? probably not. (61.6 percent sure)

Palmer_v1:

not mafia allied with Timeaisis (60 percent sure)
not mafia allied with traube
not mafia allied with Zippedpinhead
not mafia allied with El Topo
not mafia allied with AbsolutBro
not mafia allied with tomakasatnav (60 percent sure)

is Palmer_V1 mafia? probably...not? (58.55 percent sure)

Zippedpinhead:

is Zippedpinhead mafia? no. (Based on posting behavior.)

El Topo:

is El Topo mafia? no. (Based on posting behavior.)

AbsolutBro:

not mafia allied with Palmer_v1
not mafia allied with Zippedpinhead
not mafia allied with El Topo

is AbsolutBro mafia? hmm. (In the first 9 days, I think there was only like 1 vote by AbsolutBro in day 4, but he voted too late to be tallied. Now in day 10, he decides to vote again, and this time it's to lynch Karkador. It's like he's been staying in the shadows. But I'm not certain this is mafia behavior.)

tomakasatnav:

not mafia allied with Timeaisis
not mafia allied with Palmer_v1 (60 percent sure)
not mafia allied with Zippedpinhead
not mafia allied with El Topo

is tomakasatnav mafia? maybe. (Suspicious voting behavior. Doesn't vote often. Mostly does pro-mafia votes.)

traube:

not mafia allied with Timeaisis
not mafia allied with Palmer_v1
not mafia allied with Zippedpinhead
not mafia allied with El Topo

is traube mafia? maybe. (Did pro-mafia voting. Did a last minute role reveal. And I find the reveal confusing. A private investigator that gets drunk? And because of these random blackouts, he has only investigated 2 people in the span of 9 nights. Unless he's holding back other people he has investigated. I tried to google if there are private investigators in this game that can get randomly drunk...but I can't find any examples. I'm going to need more detail on this role, if it's even genuine.)
 
K

kingkitty

Member
traube, if possible, please tell me more about this drinking behavior. Is it random? Is there a pattern? Does your role description actually mention this drinking stuff.

Do you get this drunk behavior first, blocking you from targeting people period. Or do you learn of your drunk behavior after you've targeted someone? If you were able to target people after, who have you tried to investigate beyond me and Absolutbro?

If possible, could you give us which days you've tried to investigate, who you investigated, and if that day was a blackout.

In my order of suspicioun it's probably 1) traube, 2) tomakasatnav, 3) AbsolutBro

Whenever we do it, I fullly support nuking traube into the skies. If he's mafia, that's awesome. And for me at least, it will absolutely confirm that Timeaisis and Palmer_v1 are townies. If traube is a townie, then then is certain. Especially with Palmer's lingering issues about his role.

But even if he's not mafia, at least we'll have two confirmed townies based off his findings. Maybe even more if he decides to show any information he might be holding back.

Now, on this Karkador note. I wish he'd name this mysterious figure (if he isn't bluffing). The best scenario at this point for Karkador is for him to not get lynched today, but lynched tomorrow. Sooner or later, he has to go, because he will become way too strong. And he might actually try to win his role objective.
 
P

Palmer_v1

Member
Kinda funny reading that and seeing that pants went under the radar for most of us. What made karkador so positive about him?

I apparently get along with basically no one. I also like to target the low posters, which hasn't been the worst idea. 2 of the 3 dead mafia fell into those groups, and I certainly don't miss Rembrandt. It's the main source of my concern with absolut and tomak.

I still stand by my reasoning for lynching kark today and traube tomorrow. After is up in the air.
 
Z

Zatoth

Member
@Kitty: Crab sends me a message each night. Telling me if I am drunk or not. If I am drunk I'll sleep through the night without taking any actions. So I can only target a player while I am sober or at least not completely wasted.

I did ask crab how he determines if I am drunk or not. Each day I have 50% chance of being active. So in theory it would be possible for me to be useless 100% of the game.

I did not vote because I was hoping for Karkador do give us more information about his vote. Really looking forward to see his role. Depending on his role I'd probably go with El_Topo next when it comes to lynching. Don't see a reason for him to lie about his last nights target. Assuming he voted for El_Topo because he was targeting him twice without success.

If Karkador is telling the truth about being able to survive nightly attacks a few times we would have three players with that kind of power. I think Foshy also had two lives, right?

That would make El_Topo number 3 with such a power and I don't think we'd have three non-Mafia players with that ability.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Zippedpinhead said:
Did the day end on Friday, or did we get an extension because of all the confusion with votes?
Click to expand...

Got an extension to Saturday. I would be doing everything tonight, but I don't have computer access and am on phone. Will be done tomorrow morning/noon - probably most likely around lunch time in GMT.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
| Vote Count |
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Karkador: 5 / 6 [Zippedpinhead, Palmer_v1, El Topo, AbsolutBro, Timeaisis]
El Topo: 1 / 6 [Karkador]

Karkador, the Unhinged received a plurality of the votes and was lynched.

Welcome!

You are the Unhinged.

You are not aligned with any other players.

The... the blood, spattered all over the face of that guy... it... calls to you! You crave, lust for blood. You're over the edge now, and not even a bullet can stop your desire to feast on those delicious red juices. Each night phase, you MUST kill one other player by PMing me with the command KILL: Crab. You can survive two night actions that would otherwise kill you; I will inform you each time one has been used up.

You win if you are alive and there are only two other living players.

The game thread is here.

Secret role text revealed only under certain conditions: If the Unhinged and the Blonde Bombshell target each other in the same night, the Blonde Bombshell will die.

Reveal conditions: Blonde Bombshell is dead, Unhinged is dead.
Click to expand...

Night 10 has begun. Night 10 will end on Wednesday 15th April at approximately 23:00 GMT.

Please do not post in this thread until Night 10 has finished.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
There's only so many times a man can avoid death. Everyone has a number, and inevitably that number tick tock ticks down to 0. Today, the clock had run out... for Timeaisis. Or rather, the clock had run through, the huge hour hand of the grandfather clock piercing his chest; shattered glass from the case spread around him like snowfall. The holidayers looked nervously between one another. Would any of them make it from this nightmare alive?
Click to expand...

During the night, Timeaisis the Ordinary Tourist was killed.

Day 11 has begun. Day 11 will end on Saturday 18th April at approximately 22:00 GMT.

You may now resume posting.

Daaaaamn that quick night-phase. Eight players remain; the question is: how many mafia?
 
P

Palmer_v1

Member
Crab said:
During the night, Timeaisis the Ordinary Tourist was killed.

Day 11 has begun. Day 11 will end on Saturday 18th April at approximately 22:00 GMT.

You may now resume posting.

Daaaaamn that quick night-phase. Eight players remain; the question is: how many mafia?
Click to expand...

RIP Timeaisis! You were always helpful. We should never have let Johnny get lynched, though. If I make it off this island alive, I'll name my kids after you guys.

RIP Karkador as well. I don't think we'll properly understand how much you actually hurt or helped until the game is over, but if nothing else, you made it more fun.

Now for actual game stuff. Am I correctly reading Karkador's death reveal as saying he did NOT have to target every night? I wonder if he was getting blocked or if he was opting not to kill. He had to know if we had a double tourist death, he was done. At least with opting not to kill, he had a chance to skate by for a few more nights. Mostly a moot point now, probably.

I'm kind of surprised Timeaisis died, considering there are several people who were probably more trusted than him. Was he pushing any particular agenda that could have gotten him killed?

Traube, did you target anyone last night, and if so, what was the result?
 
A

AbsolutBro

Member
RIP Time. ;_;

I read it same as you Palmer, as far as I can see there's nothing to say he HAD to target someone each night, just that he could. "You may kill" (emphasis mine, obviously).
 
P

Palmer_v1

Member
AbsolutBro said:
RIP Time. ;_;

I read it same as you Palmer, as far as I can see there's nothing to say he HAD to target someone each night, just that he could. "You may kill" (emphasis mine, obviously).
Click to expand...

Crab, can you verify that for us? Just want to make sure it's not a typo or anything.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
That should read must, I copy pasted the original version I sent to him which I later corrected in a second PM.
 
M

MattyG

Banned
So who do we suspect? Off the top of my head, I suspect traube and tomakasatnav the most, but there may be something proving their innocence that I missed.
 
P

Palmer_v1

Member
MattyG said:
So who do we suspect? Off the top of my head, I suspect traube and tomakasatnav the most, but there may be something proving their innocence that I missed.
Click to expand...

We have no absolutely no concrete or circumstantial evidence that points to either of them being town. There are various circumstantial reasons to believe they could be Mafia.

Traube, in particular, is a lynchpin(lol) at this point. At best, he's a Mafia, and we win or come 1 step closer to winning. At worst, he's telling the truth, and that (sort of) clears AbsolutBro and KingKitty.

Barring any new role reveals, he is the most logical lynch target today.

My updated lynch list, in the order I would lynch them right now:

traube
AbsolutBro
tomakasatnav [1 prod]
Zippedpinhead
El Topo
kingkitty
Mattyg [1 prod]
Palmer_v1

My biggest fear is that KingKitty threw RNH(and Traube) under the bus as cover for his own long term Mafia shenanigans. So far though, I've had pretty good luck with the people I chose to trust based on just posting habits: Johnny, Kalor, Timeaisis.

KingKitty could be the one that finally fucks me, but I don't think so.
 
E

El Topo

Member
Palmer_v1 said:
Barring any new role reveals, he is the most logical lynch target today.
Click to expand...

I fear I have to agree. Not only has his entire explanation been weird and somewhat convenient, but if traube is mafia we've gained further advantage, if he's not then we have (more or less) confirmation about AbsolutBro and kingkitty.
 
A

AbsolutBro

Member
MattyG said:
So who do we suspect? Off the top of my head, I suspect traube and tomakasatnav the most, but there may be something proving their innocence that I missed.
Click to expand...

traube has said that I'm town. Knowing I'm town (but obviously with no way to prove it to the rest of you), I'm inclined to believe traube is also town.

I have no way to prove it to the rest of you, short of being lynched but that sort of defeats the purpose.
 
T

tomakasatnav

Member
MattyG said:
So who do we suspect? Off the top of my head, I suspect traube and tomakasatnav the most, but there may be something proving their innocence that I missed.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, for me there's not. I don't think I've been mentioned in any of the deceased town power role findings?

I think RNH had me in his list as no movement one night? Or something similar, which I'm not sure why in terms of end goal, given he was killed soon after.

Who's claimed roles at this point, just traube and palmer? As on the last day, my feeling is still to go for traube as either way, we get some kind of result. I can't remember right now what palmer's supposed role was, but I don't think it identified people as town which makes the traube lynch appealing in that we get potentially good news whether he's lying or not.
 
Z

Zatoth

Member
Last night was interesting. Was able to target someone and now I know (for the second time) that AbsolutBro is town.

I was targeting El Topo but for some reason I got the information for AbsolutBro, again.

With Karkadors role in the open I stick with my thought from last day and go with El Topo. I see no reason why Karkador would have lied about his target and I don't think we have two townies who can survive a nightly attack.

So...

Vote: El Topo
 
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