So here's an interesting game I played at the PPTQ:
Game three on the play vs GR Aggro, I open the following seven-
- Forest
- Temple of Malady
- Thoughtseize
- Thoughtseize
- Bile Blight
- Hero's Downfall
- Courser of Cruphix
It's not perfect, but these are the collection of cards you want against GR, and Thoughtseize is the best card in the matchup so I keep, recognizing a 21-outer with 53 cards remaining to curve out. We both pass on temples on our first turns, with me bottoming a Sidisi looking for lands and my opponent leaving a card on top. Turn two I draw Murderous Cut and play a Thoughtseize, revealing-
- Forest
- Mountain
- Heir of the Wilds
- Goblin Rabblemaster
- Stormbreath Dragon
- Stormbreath Dragon
- Xenagos, God of Revels
Any land off the top means I can use my Bile Blight or Courser to deal with Rabblemaster, and I can save the cut and downfall to kill the dragons. when we both have more time to draw into lands. Thoughtseize is the only card in my deck outside of Disdainful Stroke that beats Xenagos, so I figured I'd save my second copy for that whenever I can use it. So the card I wound up taking was Heir of the wilds which would save me the most life over time and hopefully time walk my opponent. She does indeed play a land and pass.
Now here's the more difficult decision. I miss my third land drop, drawing a backup copy of hero's downfall. Now I have to play the second Thoughtseize early in order to make any untapped land turn on Murderous Cut for the Rabblemaster. I do so, revealing that the card my opponent kept was a second Rabblemaster. It's difficult, but since my hand lines up with my opponent's threats and I didn't take the first Rabblemaster initially I felt compelled to stick with my original assessment and took the Xenagos given that(at the time) I was only playing three Thoughtseize in the 75 and as long as I got a chance to play my spells within a turn or two I could keep the board clear. It seemed that not playing for the long game was an easy way to lose to a chain of hasty threats given that I didn't have any board presence for the forseeable future.
I wound up losing after drawing a Satyr Wayfinder that found 4 spells on turn 4 and a tapped land on turn 5. No lands in the top 8 cards is incredibly unlucky considering the average is ~3, but it was a distinct possibility I had to keep in mind when I kept my hand. So I guess the question is, given my opening hand, is it a better option to apply line-up theory and take the cards my hand doesn't match well with, or to play to the board and take the conservative route with the Rabblemaster, risking losing a significant amount of life to the heir of the wilds?
Being on the play, I suppose the best conservative option would be to take Heir, wait to see what my opponent drew, with the intention of taking Rabble if it wasn't another significant threat, even if that means potentially making my bile blight useless?