From the video I watched, you were / are basically right (was behind on the thread, only just saw this post). Kinda lame, but I guess it makes sense.
It's honestly discouraging. I don't play competitively, but some fringe cards are just fun casual cards. It makes me really worried that the collective price of older "reasonable" cards will rise obnoxiously over the next little while. Worried in the sense that I feel anxious like I need to try to think of ALL the cards I could ever want that haven't spiked and just buy up a playset. This is obviously impossible / ridiculous, but still.
Example: I love a card like Boros Reckoner. It plunged near rotation (~$2.60 currently), obviously, but I still haven't picked him up (not playing as much casual constructed with friends). I'd hate to come back in 3-4 few months and see him at $10+ because speculators are just grabbing up every rare that wins a couple daily events. Maybe this is a bad example? Anyway, I guess that's just how it goes.