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Major East Coast Storm to Hit Mid-Atlantic and New England Tuesday

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T

TarpitCarnivore

Member
Cagey said:
For my personal forecasts, to expect 8 inches in central NJ on the high end, a foot in NYC as the worst case but to expect a good deal less, and for New England to get buried.

When I asked what caused the disparity in that versus the news, the shorthand he provided was that it's tracking more northeast than their forecasts are claiming.

The point is he's not lucky nor is he above and beyond the weather community. There's articles now detailing the models that had the storm pegged that were ignored.

Shutting down an area like NYC NJ Philly for nothing won't help things the next time there's a storm that is actually massive in this area.
Click to expand...

IIRC the models having it hit hard were NAM and EURO
 
S

slit

Member
Cagey said:
For my personal forecasts, to expect 8 inches in central NJ on the high end, a foot in NYC as the worst case but to expect a good deal less, and for New England to get buried.

When I asked what caused the disparity in that versus the news, the shorthand he provided was that it's tracking more northeast than their forecasts are claiming.

The point is he's not lucky nor is he above and beyond the weather community. There's articles now detailing the models that had the storm pegged that were ignored.

Shutting down an area like NYC NJ Philly for nothing won't help things the next time there's a storm that is actually massive in this area.
Click to expand...

Not all models are going to predict the same thing. The model he used and the model that others used could easily switch predictions on any given storm and be wrong. They do this to protect lives, not to inconvience you.
 
C

Cagey

Banned
slit said:
Not all models are going to predict the same thing. The model he used and the model that others used could easily switch predictions on any given storm and be wrong. They do this to protect lives, not to inconvience you.
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The snark misses the mark here. I'm off work so trust me I'm not inconvenienced.

When the public interprets this as crying wolf, it minimizes the gravity of the next warning. Which is dangerous.
 
A

andylsun

Member
Just headed out to snow blow the driveway (southern NH). 18-24 inches of snow, and was going over the top of the snowblower at points.

AT least it's light fluffy stuff, and I'm taking Wednesday off work and going skiing.
 
T

Takamura-San

Member
Cagey said:
The snark misses the mark here. I'm off work so trust me I'm not inconvenienced.

When the public interprets this as crying wolf, it minimizes the gravity of the next warning. Which is dangerous.
Click to expand...
That is in on them for not understanding how weather works.

There is a reason it is called a forecast and not a prediction. Anyone complaining sounds like "why can't they predict the future better mom?" To me.
 
S

slit

Member
Cagey said:
The snark misses the mark here. I'm off work so trust me I'm not inconvenienced.

When the public interprets this as crying wolf, it minimizes the gravity of the next warning. Which is dangerous.
Click to expand...

I didn't miss anything.

So let's just not make any forecasts at all since not all models are going to be always correct all of the time. What do you expect them to do, have all of meterology follow all forecasts made by your friend because he was right on this particular storm?
 
T

TarpitCarnivore

Member
slit said:
I didn't miss anything.

So let's just not make any forecasts at all since not all models are going to be always correct all of the time. What do you expect them to do, have all of meterology follow all forecasts made by your friend because he was right on this particular storm?
Click to expand...

I took it to be that while their friend nailed it, they didn't agree with people saying the storm was over blown.
 
C

Cagey

Banned
slit said:
I didn't miss anything.

So let's just not make any forecasts at all since not all models are going to be always correct all of the time. What do you expect them to do, have all of meterology follow all forecasts made by your friend because he was right on this particular storm?
Click to expand...
Your condescending sarcasm isn't worth a response.
 
BFIB

BFIB

Member
Thats the hard thing about these predictions. Even a few degrees an make a world of difference. A slight change in the wind can do the same.

But it doesn't help when you have national media going completely overboard, and trying to make everything they do the "most important thing we do" until the next "important thing". Its a ratings grab, and all it does is create panic and frustration.

Not saying to keep the people up to speed, but do so in a manner that doesn't have the headline of "This could be worse than Hurricane Sandy!" (Paraphrasing).
 
A

ActStriker

Member
Obligatory pics from this morning

J5fIU2Q.jpg

fUEJMw5.jpg
Click to expand...

sorry if they're a little blurry
 
L

leakey

Member
I was slightly delayed by having to brush snow off of my car and defrost the ice, but I was really hoping for a snow day. Best of luck to everyone who got hit harder.
 
C

Cagey

Banned
slit said:
No, it's just because you don't have one.
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If that's what you require to think you've won, congratulations. You've staked out what you believe is a reasoned middle of the road position, which incorrectly ignores the possibility, let alone existence, of real criticism for what transpired.

That you make such an argument with middle school level straw men and exaggeration like, "lol ok so no forecasts ever because it could be wrong once so smart bro" is even worse.

Awful stuff.
 
S

S.Dedalus

Member
Still coming down steadily in seacoast NH. Wind's not as bad at the moment as it has been. There's at least a foot and a half on the ground, with some crazy drifts. Doesn't look like it's stopping any time soon.

Spoke too soon - wind's picking back up.
 
S

slit

Member
Cagey said:
If that's what you require to think you've won, congratulations. You've staked out what you believe is a reasoned middle of the road position, which incorrectly ignores the possibility, let alone existence, of real criticism for what transpired.

That you make such an argument with middle school level straw men and exaggeration like, "lol ok so no forecasts ever because it could be wrong once so smart bro" is even worse.

Awful stuff.
Click to expand...

Oh you're just mad because you got your feelings hurt. You're complaining about crying wolf when there is no 100% guarantee of any model. Your argument is what's awful.
 
L

lil

Member
Eastern Mass here, largest snow drift near my house is up to my mid-thigh (I'm 5'5). People are saying we still might not have school tomorrow. I feel so bad for my brother-in-law's grandparents, gramp's really sick and now they don't have power. :( We gotta dig them out ASAP.
 
E

effzee

Member
I know it was the safe and likely the right decision, but seeing how little we actually got in Queens NYC I do feel guilty not going to work.
 
Gray Matter

Gray Matter

Member
This was one weak storm, at least in CT. The news forecast kept saying that it was going to snow all day today (Tuesday). By the time I woke up at 9 am it was done.
 
Wag

Wag

Member
Holy shit. We must have almost 20" of snow here already (Boston suburbs) and it's still going strong. I just looked out my window and my car is completely buried. Since I don't have to go anywhere now I probably won't dig out until tomorrow morn.
 
terrisus

terrisus

Member
Meriden, CT...

This is weak.
There's hardly even any snow out there.
And it's barely snowing at all now.

There's going to be more, right? >.>
 
E

e_i

Member
Oh good god, De Blasio's sign language guy is driving me nuts. Is he even doing sign language? Sometimes, the guy does nothing while De Blasio is talking.
 
J

Jhoan

Member
De Blasio's sign language guy is hilarious. It helps that he looks a bit like Johnny Depp. Watching the press conference on ABC and I see people with shopping bags from Century 21. The winter storm served a good excuse. Parks are open but caution is advised.

Also, this snowstorm was overhyped to oblivion. The street outside my building by the Hudson Parkway in Washington Heights is cleared. A friend who works at the Flushing Target told me that he saw one customer's cart overflowing with nothing but cereal.
 
D

DoktorEvil

Banned
Jipan said:
De Blasio's sign language guy is hilarious. It helps that he looks a bit like Johnny Depp. Watching the press conference on ABC and I see people with shopping bags from Century 21. The winter storm served a good excuse. Parks are open but caution is advised.

Also, this snowstorm was overhyped to oblivion. The street outside my building by the Hudson Parkway in Washington Heights is cleared. A friend who works at the Flushing Target told me that he saw one customer's cart overflowing with nothing but cereal.
Click to expand...

If you're like the co-OP I do weekend work for: the lack of heat inside is a pretty good excuse to go shopping in warm malls.
 
terrisus

terrisus

Member
e_i said:
Oh good god, De Blasio's sign language guy is driving me nuts. Is he even doing sign language? Sometimes, the guy does nothing while De Blasio is talking.
Click to expand...

Sometimes signers wait for a section of talking to be over and then deliver a summarized version of it.
 
T

Trey

Member
Cagey said:
The snark misses the mark here. I'm off work so trust me I'm not inconvenienced.

When the public interprets this as crying wolf, it minimizes the gravity of the next warning. Which is dangerous.
Click to expand...

There's always going to be people who don't think a storm will be as bad as the weatherman says. It behooves everyone (especially administration who has people's lives in their hands) to err on the side of extreme caution, which is not at all the same as "crying wolf."

Ask Mayor Reed and Governor Deal how they feel about the topic.
 
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