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Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 ended in the Southern Indian Ocean

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F

Flo_Evans

Member
gutshot said:
Just trying to help a brother out. Anyway, it's not like this thread is a shining beacon of amazing and informative posts right now.
Click to expand...

haha thanks, I always make that mistake. Interesting I typed it correctly the 3rd time. If I would have proof read my post I would have fixed it.

had to read this post 3 times to make sure it was right.
 
Joel Was Right

Joel Was Right

Gold Member
Before he left home, he took off his wedding ring and watch and gave them to his wife for his two young sons.

A vigil for the missing passengers has been held in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur. "If something should happen to me then the wedding ring should go to the first son that gets married and the watch to the second," wife Danica Weeks was quoted by media as saying.
Click to expand...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26503469

Alarm bells?
 
Oppo

Oppo

Member
teruterubozu said:
That was posted 3 days ago, before info came out about satellite pings that lasted for hours.
Click to expand...

He has since responded in the comments:

Chris Goodfellow said:
Diego and all who have commented - thank you.

I wrote this post before the information regarding the engines continuing to run for approximately six hours and the fact it seems acars was shut down before the transponder.

The continued speculation of hijack and/or murder suicide and the latest this morning that there was a flight engineer on board that is being investigated does not do much to sway me in favour of foul play until I am presented with evidence of foul play.

My post received a lot of comments on Reddit as well if some of you wish to read those. www.reddit.com MH370.

Now let me deal with Diego's request for my present view in light of new evidence.

We know there was a last voice transmission that from a pilot's point of view (POV) was entirely normal. The good night is customary on a hand -off to a new ATC control. The good night also indicates STRONGLY to me all was OK on the flight deck. Remember there are many ways a pilot can communicate distress - the hijack code or even a transponder code different by one digit from assigned would alert ATC that something was wrong. Every good pilot knows keying an SOS over the mike is always an option even three short clicks would raise an alert.

So I conclude at that point of voice transmission all was perceived as well on the flight deck by the pilots.

But things could have been in the process of going wrong unknown to the pilots -
Evidently the ACARS went inoperative some time before. Disabling the ACARS is not easy as pointed out. This leads me to believe more in an electric or electric fire issue than a manual shutdown. I suggest the pilots were probably not aware it was not transmitting.

The next event is the turn to the SW in what appears direct Langkawi.
As I said in the first post the pilot probably had this in his head already.
Someone said why didn't he go to KBR on north coast of Malaysia which was closer. That's a 6,000 foot runway and to put that plane down on a 6,000 foot strip at night uncertain of your aircraft's entire systems is not an option. I would expect the pilot would consider ditching before a 6,000 runway if still above maximum landing weight which he likely was.
The safest runway in the region to make the approach was certainly Langkawi - no obstacles over water with a long flat approach. In my humble opinion this 18,000 hour pilot knew this instinctively.

Reports of altitude fluctuations. Well given that this was not transponder generated data but primary radar at maybe 200 miles the azimuth readings can be affected by a lot of atmospherics and I would not have high confidence in this being totally reliable. But let's accept for a minute he might have ascended to 45,000 in a last ditch effort to quell a fire by seeking the lowest level of oxygen. It is an acceptable scenario in my opinion. At 45,000 it would be tough to keep this aircraft stable as the flight envelope is very narrow and loss of control in a stall is entirely possible. The aircraft is at the top of its operational ceiling. The reported rapid rates of descent could have been generated by a stall and recovery at 25,000. The pilot may even have been diving the aircraft to extinguish flames. All entirely possible.

But going to 45,000 in a hijack scenario doesn't make any good sense to me.

The question of the time the plane flew on.

On departing Kuala he would have had fuel for Beijing and alternate probably Shanghai and 45 minutes. Say 8 hours. Maybe more. He burned 20-25% in first hour with takeoff, climb to cruise. So when the turn was made towards Langkawi he would have had six hours or more. This correlates nicely with the immarsat data pings being received until fuel exhaustion.

The apparent now known continued flight until TTFE time to fuel exhaustion only actually confirms to me the crew were incapacitated and the flight continued on deep into the south Indian ocean.

There really is no point in speculating further until more evidence surfaces but in the meantime it serves no purpose to malign the pilots who well may have been in an heroic struggle to save this aircraft from a fire or other serious mechanical issue and were overcome.

I hope the investigation team looks at the maintenance records of the front gear tires - cycles, last pressure check and maintenance inspection. Captain or F/O as part of pre-flight looks at tires. Is there any video at the airport to support pre-flight walkaround? Any damage on pushback? A day after I wrote the original post a plane in the U.S. blew a tire in takeoff and the t/o was fortunately aborted with a burning tire.

Hopefully - and I believe now it is a slim hope - the wreckage will be found and the FDR and VDR will be recovered and provide us with insight. Until facts prove otherwise, I would give the Captain the benefit of respect and professional courtesy.
Click to expand...
 
G

Ghost

Chili Con Carnage!
Chris Goodfellow makes a lot of sense, so naturally I don't expect his views to gain any traction whatsoever.
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
tino said:
This is the simplest and IMO best explanation so far. People should start looking alone that route.
Click to expand...

That makes a lot of sense. I also just heard on the radio this morning that officials now are not sure if the last transmission actually occurred after some stuff was switched off or not.
 
G

gutshot

Member
Nerfgun said:
He has since responded in the comments:
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm going with this theory. Mechanical failures that lead to an electrical fire, pilot attempts to head to nearest capable airport for an emergency landing, ends up becoming incapacitated along the way, plane continues flying until running out of fuel, crashes in the ocean. Infinitely more plausible than the idea that he snuck into Afghanistan with a 777 full of passengers.
 
Y

Yankee Ruin X

Member
gutshot said:
Yeah, I'm going with this theory. Mechanical failures that lead to an electrical fire, pilot attempts to head to nearest capable airport for an emergency landing, ends up becoming incapacitated along the way, plane continues flying until running out of fuel, crashes in the ocean. Infinitely more plausible than the idea that he snuck into Afghanistan with a 777 full of passengers.
Click to expand...

It is but surely if the fire was bad enough to incapacitate everyone on board then the plane would have come down pretty fast shortly after due to the fire not carry on flying by itself for hours while in flames.
 
T

teruterubozu

Member
Yeah the only problem I have is the selective nature of the fire burning - burn comm systems, incapacitate the crew, but auto-pilot still keeps going? I don't now anything about a cockpit so...
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
ostrichKing said:
And how did a fire burning for 7 hours not destroy the plane well well before hand?
Click to expand...

And a plane cruising at its last known heading wouldn't have gotten it to the location set of the last satellite ping.

The author is starting with a hypothesis (a pilot wouldn't do this), and trying to match the facts to fit it.
 
B

BruiserBear

Banned
dorkimoe said:
I cannot believe they havent found this yet....
Click to expand...

With a normal plane crash they usually have a very good idea where the plane went down. In this case with the tracking devices turned off, it's much more difficult to fine some small pieces of wreckage in a massive body of water.
 
C

crozier

Member
Are you kidding me? How do they screw up basic facts like whether communications were disabled before or after the last fucking transmission? That's rather important.
 
K

KHarvey16

Member
crozier said:
Are you kidding me? How do they screw up basic facts like whether communications were disabled before or after the last fucking transmission? That's rather important.
Click to expand...

ACARS is periodic. They can know when the last transmission was sent but I'm not sure how they would be able to tell when during the time between that connection and the next it was switched off.
 
F

Flo_Evans

Member
teruterubozu said:
Yeah the only problem I have is the selective nature of the fire burning - burn comm systems, incapacitate the crew, but auto-pilot still keeps going? I don't now anything about a cockpit so...
Click to expand...

Well they don't know if the comm system was burned or switched off.

If it was a tire fire like the guy is suggesting it might not have damaged anything, but it would be normal for the pilots to turn off electric systems if the cabin was filling with smoke. They may not have had time to turn the transponder back on before they passed out or died due to smoke.

Basically:

Cabin fills with smoke
Pilots turn off electric systems
set new course for emergency landing
turn on autopilot
pass out/die
????
 
L

liquidtmd

Banned
StopMakingSense said:
The author is starting with a hypothesis (a pilot wouldn't do this), and trying to match the facts to fit it.
Click to expand...

But in terms of such a bias wasn't this the same guy whose first hypothesis involve the Pilots indeed doing or being coerced to do it - flying in the shadow of SIA68 - or was that another guy?
 
D

Deku Tree

Member
Flo_Evans said:
Well they don't know if the comm system was burned or switched off.

If it was a tire fire like the guy is suggesting it might not have damaged anything, but it would be normal for the pilots to turn off electric systems if the cabin was filling with smoke. They may not have had time to turn the transponder back on before they passed out or died due to smoke.

Basically:

Cabin fills with smoke
Pilots turn off electric systems
set new course for emergency landing
turn on autopilot
pass out/die
????
Click to expand...

Hard to believe they would not send a quick SOS distress call before shutting off the systems under your scenario.
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
liquidtmd said:
But in terms of such a bias wasn't this the same guy whose first hypothesis involve the Pilots indeed doing or being coerced to do it - flying in the shadow of SIA68 - or was that another guy?
Click to expand...

Different, unlinked theory posted on the same page as the this guys original post in this thread. I was confused by that for a bit too.
 
N

numble

Member
Deku Tree said:
Hard to believe they would not send a quick SOS distress call before shutting off the systems under your scenario.
Click to expand...

Yes, the radio still worked. A plane allegedly contacted them (and only got mumbling) about 25 minutes after the transponder was turned off, since Vietnam couldn't find them.
 
T

TheOMan

Tagged as I see fit
Flo_Evans said:
Well they don't know if the comm system was burned or switched off.

If it was a tire fire like the guy is suggesting it might not have damaged anything, but it would be normal for the pilots to turn off electric systems if the cabin was filling with smoke. They may not have had time to turn the transponder back on before they passed out or died due to smoke.

Basically:

Cabin fills with smoke
Pilots turn off electric systems
set new course for emergency landing
turn on autopilot
pass out/die
????
Click to expand...

Highly possiblle, but why wouldn't they send some sort of transmission saying that their plane was on fire?
 
R

raindoc

Member
Deku Tree said:
Hard to believe they would not send a quick SOS distress call before shutting off the systems under your scenario.
Click to expand...

this. calling for help has to be on the checklist for smoke in the cockpit?
I wish they had confirmed or denied the accout of the other 777 pilot who claims to have had radio contact on an emergency frequency.
 
CHEEZMO™

CHEEZMO™

Obsidian fan
Flo_Evans said:
Well they don't know if the comm system was burned or switched off.

If it was a tire fire like the guy is suggesting it might not have damaged anything, but it would be normal for the pilots to turn off electric systems if the cabin was filling with smoke. They may not have had time to turn the transponder back on before they passed out or died due to smoke.

Basically:

Cabin fills with smoke
Pilots turn off electric systems
set new course for emergency landing
turn on autopilot
pass out/die
????
Click to expand...

I dunno bro. Throw in some secret jungle air base and nerve gas and malaysian al Qaeda operatives and then I'll pay attention but until then you're a crazy person jumping to conclusions thinking you've got it all figured out.
 
F

Flo_Evans

Member
Deku Tree said:
Hard to believe they would not send a quick SOS distress call before shutting off the systems under your scenario.
Click to expand...

True but they may have been panicked, already at limited capacity due to smoke or actively trying to fight the fire.

If the majority of the crew was already disabled the pilot probably had a lot on his hands. His next move would of been to radio the tower but maybe the radio was damaged, maybe he was attempting to send a message but died before he could send it?

I don't know but it seems possible, to me it seems far more likely the plane has crashed, if it was due to an accident/fire or due to being stolen/hijacked we may never know.
 
S

Slurpy2k20

Member
Maninthemirror said:
CNN reporting is such a black mark to journalism

Captain Wearing a democracy is dead shirt and participating in rallies ? Thats suspicious

Co pilot inviting teen girls to cockpit ? Thats suspicious because being a son of an airline pilot i know for a fact this is a frequent occurance outside the USA
Click to expand...

No fucking kidding.

A pilot cares about democracy? Terrorist!

Re inviting people to cockpit, lost track of how many times I've been in been in a cockpit, even during takeoff and landing (simply because I asked) pre-9/11. Sure, the US has changed its policies now, but I doubt other countries have all done so to the same extent. That doesn't mean the pilot was negligent, a criminal, or incompetent.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
CHEEZMO™;104723508 said:
I dunno bro. Throw in some secret jungle air base and nerve gas and malaysian al Qaeda operatives and then I'll pay attention but until then you're a crazy person jumping to conclusions thinking you've got it all figured out.
Click to expand...
Dont forget pilots' ties to Anwar Ibrahim and secret Iranian operatives.
 
C

crozier

Member
KHarvey16 said:
ACARS is periodic. They can know when the last transmission was sent but I'm not sure how they would be able to tell when during the time between that connection and the next it was switched off.
Click to expand...
Why did authorities explicitly state that everything was disabled *prior* to the last communication being sent out if it was an overlapping window the entire time?
 
kaiju

kaiju

Member
gutshot said:
Yeah, I'm going with this theory. Mechanical failures that lead to an electrical fire, pilot attempts to head to nearest capable airport for an emergency landing, ends up becoming incapacitated along the way, plane continues flying until running out of fuel, crashes in the ocean. Infinitely more plausible than the idea that he snuck into Afghanistan with a 777 full of passengers.
Click to expand...

Still does not explain the lack of radio SOS, the ascent to 45,000 feet or the last few satellite pings.
 
A

AkuMifune

Banned
CHEEZMO™;104723508 said:
I dunno bro. Throw in some secret jungle air base and nerve gas and malaysian al Qaeda operatives and then I'll pay attention but until then you're a crazy person jumping to conclusions thinking you've got it all figured out.
Click to expand...

As if we needed more proof we live in a world of people who grew up watching X-Files.

Not saying that nothing nefarious happened, but it's sad to me that the media jumped from tragedy to loony conspiracy theories within the first hour. And it's only gotten worse.
 
S

syllogism

Member
For reference, here's a photo of a 777 avionics bay



All the communication, transponder and navigation systems are located here. Seems almost impossible for multiple systems (ACARS, transponder) to fail almost simultaneously and yet e.g. navigation systems and SATCOM stay untouched for another 7 hours.
 
T

Tapiozona

Banned
Flo_Evans said:
Well they don't know if the comm system was burned or switched off.

If it was a tire fire like the guy is suggesting it might not have damaged anything, but it would be normal for the pilots to turn off electric systems if the cabin was filling with smoke. They may not have had time to turn the transponder back on before they passed out or died due to smoke.

Basically:

Cabin fills with smoke
Pilots turn off electric systems
set new course for emergency landing
turn on autopilot
pass out/die
????
Click to expand...

Transponder was shut off BEFORE the Captain radioed "goodnight". That alone completely negates a theory like this.
 
C

crozier

Member
Tapiozona said:
Transponder was shut off BEFORE the Captain radioed "goodnight". That alone completely negates a theory like this.
Click to expand...
Read the latest news from today. They changed their minds. Now it was a window of time in which the transponder was shut down, ranging from before the last transmission until sometime afterwards.
 
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