Because we still know that the Silk Air pilot committed murder-suicide despite him having turned off the FDR and CVR. That's because the wreckage was recovered and analyzed.
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Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 ended in the Southern Indian Ocean
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To add to this, from an engineering perspective you never want to seal off electrical components that may catch fire or otherwise cause problems during flight. When designing a system like this you have to prioritse preventing accidents above preventing malicious acts.
If you're a pilot who wants to die, from a culture where suicide is so reviled then it's a very good way of making sure that nobody ever knows. If you look at the results it arguably worked.
Excellent, excellent write-up from Slate explaining the process Inmarsat used to calculate the path that the plane took. It pretty much breaks down everything, and shows that while their data is sound and pretty reliable, there are a few things that keeps it from being absolutely accurate.
I was definitely looking for something like this: something where both the verified data (the "known" evidence) as well as the assumptions (the "unknown" evidence) used to come up with the theory were laid plainly for all to see: http://www.slate.com/articles/techn...hed_in_the_southern_ocean_doppler_effect.html
I was definitely looking for something like this: something where both the verified data (the "known" evidence) as well as the assumptions (the "unknown" evidence) used to come up with the theory were laid plainly for all to see: http://www.slate.com/articles/techn...hed_in_the_southern_ocean_doppler_effect.html
toxicgonzo
Taxes?! Isn't this the line for Metallica?
https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/449001929805688833
Another article I read said this may happen in one to two days.
If the data shows the pilot practiced a simulation similar to the missing flight, it'll be damning circumstantial evidence against the pilot.
Deaf Spacker
Memb
I thought that there wasn't any concrete proof for pilot suicide?
Theres the daily one due in little under 2.5 hours at 5.30am Malay time but beyond 'the search is hampered by bad weather' and 'were still chasing debris seen on satellite from days ago', I wouldn't expect much.
Random thinly related thought: Many on here have put forward a conspiracy that the pilot hijacked the plane and attempted to negotiation the release of a recently imprisoned political prisoner.
If the simulation does indeed show a route similar to the southern corridor, surely that conspiracy theory can also be put to bed. If you were hijacking a plane with negotiation / passenger leverage in mind - planning an endgame like that in advance makes zero sense (even in context of this whole incident making little sense period)
They totally had well informed sources for such conjecture
Boy Wander
Member
BBC is reporting that a Thai satellite has picked up 200-300 objects in the sea close to the search area.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10718181/Malaysia-Airlines-MH370-live.html
11.50 Our technology reporter Sophie Curtis explains everything you need to know about the black box:
A 'black box' actually consists of two boxes – a cockpit voice recorder and a data recorder. The flight data recorder records a stream of flight information, while the cockpit voice recorder stores conversations and other noises made in the cockpit.
Each of the boxes is about the size of a shoe box and weighs around 10kg. They are made out of aluminium, and are designed to withstand massive impact, fierce fire or high pressure. Although the original flight recorders were painted black, the colour was changed to orange to make them easier to find by investigators.
The black box on Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is made by US firm Honeywell Aerospace. It is programmed to record cockpit communication on a two hour loop and delete all but the final two hours
11.40 "It is a little disheartening, you know this will be a difficult mission and you know it will go on for a very long time. But we've done similar work. So there is always hope for us and that's what keeps you going," explains New Zealand Royal Air Force Flight Leiutenant Stephen Graham, coordinator for New Zealand's search efforts at the Australian air force base in Perth
11.31 An international search team of 11 military and civilian aircraft and five ships had been heading for the search area today but severe weather forced the planes to turn back.
"The forecast in the area was calling for severe icing, severe turbulence and near-zero visibility," said Lieutenant Commander Adam Schantz, the officer in charge of the U.S. Navy Poseidon P8 maritime surveillance aircraft detachment.
The Australian Maritime Safety Authority, which is coordinating the effort, confirmed flights had been called off but said ships continued to search despite battering waves.
"It's the nature of search and rescue. It's a fickle beast," Flying Officer Peter Moore, the captain of an Australian AP-3C Orion, told Reuters aboard the plane after it turned around 600 miles from the search zone.
10.11 This from our Beijing correspondent Malcolm Moore:
" Seven Chinese families have had £470,000 in payouts from China Life, the insurance company. China Life covered 32 passengers on board the plane."
09.55 The youngest son of MH370 pilot Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah has broken the family's silence. It is alleged that the pilot had orchestrated a suicide mission, causing the crashing of the plane.
However his son Ahmad Seth, 26 told the New Straights Times he knew his father well:
"I've read everything online. But I've ignored all the speculation. I know my father better.
"We may not be as close as he travels so much. But I understand him."
The family of Captain Shah have so far kept quiet since the plane disappeared on March 8.
09.40 Some of the objects captured in the images were estimated at up to 16 meters (52 feet) long. The images were taken by the Thaichote satellite on Monday, took two days to process and were relayed to Malaysian authorities on Wednesday according to AFP.
09.35 The Thai satellite photos which captured 200 objects were taken on March 24, the day after French satellite images showed 122 objects in a 400-square kilometer area.
09.25 Chinese families have been heavily critical of the Malaysian search effort, but now relatives of other nations are also speaking out. The sister of New Zealand victim Paul Weeks criticised the response:
"The whole situation has been handled appallingly, incredibly insensitively," Sara Weeks told Radio Live in New Zealand.
"The Malaysian government, the airline, it's just all been incredibly poor."
09.23 Thailand faced criticism early on in the search after announcing more than a week after the jet's disappearance that its radar had picked up an "unknown aircraft" minutes after flight MH370 last transmitted its location.
The Thai air force said it did not report the findings earlier as the plane was not considered a threat.
09.18 The objects were spotted about 200 kilometres away from an area where French satellite images earlier showed potential objects in the search for the Boeing 777 which vanished on March 8 with 239 people aboard.
09.03 The information has been given to Malaysia. The pictures were taken by Thailand's only earth observation satellite on Monday but will need several days to process.
08.59 The director of the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency Anond Snidvongs, told AFP: "But we cannot - dare not - confirm they are debris from the plane,"
08.40 Thai satellite images have shown 300 floating objects in the southern Indian Ocean.
The objects, ranging from 6.5 to 50ft in size, were scattered over an area about 1,680 miles southwest of Perth, according to the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency.
11.50 Our technology reporter Sophie Curtis explains everything you need to know about the black box:
A 'black box' actually consists of two boxes – a cockpit voice recorder and a data recorder. The flight data recorder records a stream of flight information, while the cockpit voice recorder stores conversations and other noises made in the cockpit.
Each of the boxes is about the size of a shoe box and weighs around 10kg. They are made out of aluminium, and are designed to withstand massive impact, fierce fire or high pressure. Although the original flight recorders were painted black, the colour was changed to orange to make them easier to find by investigators.
The black box on Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is made by US firm Honeywell Aerospace. It is programmed to record cockpit communication on a two hour loop and delete all but the final two hours
11.40 "It is a little disheartening, you know this will be a difficult mission and you know it will go on for a very long time. But we've done similar work. So there is always hope for us and that's what keeps you going," explains New Zealand Royal Air Force Flight Leiutenant Stephen Graham, coordinator for New Zealand's search efforts at the Australian air force base in Perth
11.31 An international search team of 11 military and civilian aircraft and five ships had been heading for the search area today but severe weather forced the planes to turn back.
"The forecast in the area was calling for severe icing, severe turbulence and near-zero visibility," said Lieutenant Commander Adam Schantz, the officer in charge of the U.S. Navy Poseidon P8 maritime surveillance aircraft detachment.
The Australian Maritime Safety Authority, which is coordinating the effort, confirmed flights had been called off but said ships continued to search despite battering waves.
"It's the nature of search and rescue. It's a fickle beast," Flying Officer Peter Moore, the captain of an Australian AP-3C Orion, told Reuters aboard the plane after it turned around 600 miles from the search zone.
10.11 This from our Beijing correspondent Malcolm Moore:
" Seven Chinese families have had £470,000 in payouts from China Life, the insurance company. China Life covered 32 passengers on board the plane."
09.55 The youngest son of MH370 pilot Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah has broken the family's silence. It is alleged that the pilot had orchestrated a suicide mission, causing the crashing of the plane.
However his son Ahmad Seth, 26 told the New Straights Times he knew his father well:
"I've read everything online. But I've ignored all the speculation. I know my father better.
"We may not be as close as he travels so much. But I understand him."
The family of Captain Shah have so far kept quiet since the plane disappeared on March 8.
09.40 Some of the objects captured in the images were estimated at up to 16 meters (52 feet) long. The images were taken by the Thaichote satellite on Monday, took two days to process and were relayed to Malaysian authorities on Wednesday according to AFP.
09.35 The Thai satellite photos which captured 200 objects were taken on March 24, the day after French satellite images showed 122 objects in a 400-square kilometer area.
09.25 Chinese families have been heavily critical of the Malaysian search effort, but now relatives of other nations are also speaking out. The sister of New Zealand victim Paul Weeks criticised the response:
"The whole situation has been handled appallingly, incredibly insensitively," Sara Weeks told Radio Live in New Zealand.
"The Malaysian government, the airline, it's just all been incredibly poor."
09.23 Thailand faced criticism early on in the search after announcing more than a week after the jet's disappearance that its radar had picked up an "unknown aircraft" minutes after flight MH370 last transmitted its location.
The Thai air force said it did not report the findings earlier as the plane was not considered a threat.
09.18 The objects were spotted about 200 kilometres away from an area where French satellite images earlier showed potential objects in the search for the Boeing 777 which vanished on March 8 with 239 people aboard.
09.03 The information has been given to Malaysia. The pictures were taken by Thailand's only earth observation satellite on Monday but will need several days to process.
08.59 The director of the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency Anond Snidvongs, told AFP: "But we cannot - dare not - confirm they are debris from the plane,"
08.40 Thai satellite images have shown 300 floating objects in the southern Indian Ocean.
The objects, ranging from 6.5 to 50ft in size, were scattered over an area about 1,680 miles southwest of Perth, according to the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency.
Separate from my above post as interesting additions
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10718181/Malaysia-Airlines-MH370-live.html
Latest
12.40 New York Magazine says that there is an emerging consensus that MH370 became a "ghost plane," flying until it ran out of fuel. they have detailed five case studies of ghost flights
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligence...-flight-5-case-studies.html?mid=twitter_nymag
12.25 CNN have estimated how much the families of those on flight MH370 will be paid
http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/25/news/companies/malaysia-airlines-compensation/
12.15 A handout image released by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA), in Canberra, Australia, on 27 March 2014 shows the search areas off Australia's west coast where 11 planes and five ships search for the missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370:
EPA/AMSA
12.00 Yesterday FBI Director James Comey told members of Congress that his investigators should finish in a day or two their analysis of electronics owned by the pilot and co-pilot, work that includes trying to recover files deleted from a home flight simulator used by Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah.
11.55 The black box automatically deletes all but the last few hours of recordings because it is normally the last section of a flight that determines the cause of a crash. However in the case of flight MH370 investigators may need to piece together more than just the final part of the flight, says Sophie Curtis:
"In the case of the MH370, it is thought that the crucial moment for understanding the flight revolves around the period during which its communications systems were disabled and it took a sharp turn westward before flying silently for about seven hours.
Although the flight data will have survived, the discussion in the cockpit immediately after the flight lost contact with air traffic control will have been overwritten, unless power to the recorder was lost at the same time."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10718181/Malaysia-Airlines-MH370-live.html
Latest
12.40 New York Magazine says that there is an emerging consensus that MH370 became a "ghost plane," flying until it ran out of fuel. they have detailed five case studies of ghost flights
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligence...-flight-5-case-studies.html?mid=twitter_nymag
12.25 CNN have estimated how much the families of those on flight MH370 will be paid
http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/25/news/companies/malaysia-airlines-compensation/
12.15 A handout image released by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA), in Canberra, Australia, on 27 March 2014 shows the search areas off Australia's west coast where 11 planes and five ships search for the missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370:
EPA/AMSA
12.00 Yesterday FBI Director James Comey told members of Congress that his investigators should finish in a day or two their analysis of electronics owned by the pilot and co-pilot, work that includes trying to recover files deleted from a home flight simulator used by Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah.
11.55 The black box automatically deletes all but the last few hours of recordings because it is normally the last section of a flight that determines the cause of a crash. However in the case of flight MH370 investigators may need to piece together more than just the final part of the flight, says Sophie Curtis:
"In the case of the MH370, it is thought that the crucial moment for understanding the flight revolves around the period during which its communications systems were disabled and it took a sharp turn westward before flying silently for about seven hours.
Although the flight data will have survived, the discussion in the cockpit immediately after the flight lost contact with air traffic control will have been overwritten, unless power to the recorder was lost at the same time."
This is pretty strange:
http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big...res-sealed-evidence-mh370-cannot-be-made-publ
wat
http://www.straitstimes.com/the-big...res-sealed-evidence-mh370-cannot-be-made-publ
wat
No concrete proof will be found unless the wreckage is found, which was exactly the pilot's intention.
GungHo
Single-handedly caused Exxon-Mobil to sue FOX, start World War 3
No shit, I said this to someone in a meeting two days ago.
Hydrogen Bluebird
Member
Well holy shit if that is true.
Deaf Spacker
Memb
Err if there is no concrete proof then how do you know that it was the pilot's intention?
Pretty sure I read a week or two ago that they were separated but still living together
The plane did not fly to the middle of the Indian ocean on its own.
The plane did not turn off ACARS on its own
You'd need a pilot who is intimate with the plane to program the AP that way and turn off ACARS and CVR.
The plane flew for 7 hours so there wasn't an emergency that required that particular set of actions.
Put 2 and 2 together...
Deaf Spacker
Memb
I'd rather wait for concrete facts but I know what you are getting at.
Partial Gamification
Banned
Is this likely from a military installation or are there any reasons given why the evidence is sealed? I'm assuming its under the blanket of Malaysian national security but have they commented specifically to this?
CadetMahoney
Member
It would suffer the same problems with any signal at the bottom of the sea.
Yeah... GPS frequencies can't even penetrate a house let alone several kilometres of water
So this seems to throw even more doubt on the accuracy of the Immarsat data.
The ABC is reporting further calculations have concluded the plane was flying faster than previously thought, meaning it used more fuel and would have crashed considerably short of where the were looking.
What an all-round balls up.
The ABC is reporting further calculations have concluded the plane was flying faster than previously thought, meaning it used more fuel and would have crashed considerably short of where the were looking.
What an all-round balls up.
Except it has nothing to do with Immarsat data, "The dramatic shift in the search area was based on analysis of radar data between the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) said. "
HerbertFish
Member
Jeez
You might never get them in this case, which was most likely the pilot's intention.
The prior search area was based on Immarsat data.
What? The area they've been searching for much of the last week was pinpointed by Immarsat data. It now seems to have been inaccurate.
This new data alleges the plane crashed almost 1100km north of where the Immarsat data had indicated.
It was never "pinpointed" by Immarsat data. They assumed a speed. The only thing that was really determined was that due to the wobble of the satellite's orbit you can infer from the doppler that it took the southern path. Depending on the speed you can end up with different end points that fit the same data.
but it's not Immarsat's fault. One of the inputs to Immarsat data analysis model is the fly speed, which was estimated from the ground radar data when the plane was still monitored, and now it seems the speed was underestimated. With the new faster fly speed, the Immarsat model gave a new crash location north to the old one. The Immarsat's data and the model did the job, twice. Will it lead use to the plane? we don't know yet, but so far, nothing says it's incorrect. Also keep in mind, Immarsat is not only the best estimation we have for the second half of the flight, it's actually the only one.
Point being, the Immarsat data was used to narrow down a certain search area (admittedly still a huge section of the ocean), an area which they focused their attention on for almost a week.
Now, it seems one of the key reasons why they couldn't find anything is because they were looking in the wrong spot.
Now, it seems one of the key reasons why they couldn't find anything is because they were looking in the wrong spot.
Where did I say it was their fault? I just said their data was initially inaccurate, due to an underestimation of air speed. Paint it how you like, the initial data used to narrow down a search area now seems to be flawed.
Try to answer this question, what the searching scope will be if we don't have Immarsat data?
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
No. The only thing that changed is that they got other info telling them the plane didn't have as much fuel. The info from Immarsat is still correct as far as we know.
We wouldn't have wasted hundreds of millions of dollars on a wild goose chase in the Indian Ocean? That would be my flippant response.
Really though, why are you so defensive in regards to Immarsat? I don't believe I've once seriously denigrated the company. I just said the data looks likely to be flawed.
What is the issue with that observation?
Really though, why are you so defensive in regards to Immarsat? I don't believe I've once seriously denigrated the company. I just said the data looks likely to be flawed.
What is the issue with that observation?
Their data/model is fine, just susceptible to GIGO with regards to the airspeed data. They've admitted as much since the very beginning.
They could've made a locus of possible end points depending on average speed from the start but people would still have to pick one and it still probably would've been the one that assumed that the speed didn't change.
No, we probably wasted 100 times more, since the search will be spread from South China sea to Maldive, easily 100 times larger without Immarsat's analysis.
Why am I defending Immarsat? Idk, because someone is wrong? or, because Neogaf needs to have defense force for everything?
Because, according to the new data, the plane was flying faster than Inmarsat assumed (which was a complete guess anyway).
If this new data is to be believed, their complete guess was, well, wrong.
A guess of the flight speed is... a guess. I don't think anyone ever came out and said, this is definitely the correct flight speed, and no one else claimed otherwise until this recent update.
So to say they're wrong has to imply that they insisted they were correct in the first place.
So to say they're wrong has to imply that they insisted they were correct in the first place.
I doubt anyone is invested in defending Immarsat, but rather the science and the data behind the conclusion that the plane crashed in the Indian Ocean. They stated from the beginning that small changes in the assumed flight speed and fuel would shift the search area hundreds of miles, but the conclusion would remain the same - it crashed in the Indian Ocean. Why exactly does the data "look likely to be flawed"?
Never said they were wrong, said it looks to have been inaccurate. Given we've found bugger all so far, and that the search has now been shifted north by a massive margin, I'd say that's fair.
I think the issue is more the angle that you're approaching it from. Better airspeed estimations help the Immarsat data. That doesn't make it flawed, but rather prone to inaccuracy due to airspeed uncertainty.
The process here is about gathering more data and refining as much as possible. You work with what you've got until you get something better. If you get more data, you go back and refine. It's unfortunate that refining can be on the order of thousands of kilometers, but that's the situation they're in.
Your logic seems to be that because Immarsat data is the best we have so far, it deserves respect.
I'd contend that the data has been entirely unhelpful so far, insomuch as we have yet to find a thing.
The method behind the data is incredibly ingenious, complex and fascinating. Doesn't mean it's accurate though.
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