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[PantherLotus]

Video is a year old, but this doesn't seem like someone that is insane.

https://www.yo utube.com/watch?v=WAxgsL_evec&list=UUm6f3-wcpgLhxUR_ONPfoJA

So that means...

 

[Betta Lines]

The AP reported tonight that it is a confirmed hijacking.

But they didn't confirm it in the press conference?

 

[CREMSteve]

But they didn't confirm it in the press conference?

They confirmed it was deliberate, but wouldn't go so far as to say hijack.

 

[crozier]

Assuming the pilots are involved (IMHO, you'd need several people on the plane with weapons otherwise), you'd still need:
- A flight path to the destination that you knew well enough to be able to travel there without the plane's internal comms systems. I suppose you could have a laptop or something with the maps and basically navigate old-school.
- 9000 ft of flat, wide paved road with no cars on it or a 9000 ft paved secret airport runway
- You need to light up the landing area since it would have been dark at the time they landed since they went west from Malaysia in the middle of the night.
- Remote area with no cell phone service in a country with a shit radar system (or one where nobody's paying attention) to where nobody's going to notice a huge 777 blip on radar.
- People to make sure the road/landing strip is clear from vehicles and nobody notices
- Several armed gunmen to either kill or take the 220+ people on the plane hostage, destroy cell phones, etc
- Jet fuel and equipment to refuel the plane
- Another landing strip at the final destination where nobody's going to notice a huge plane landing.
- Material to cover the plane up so that you don't notice a huge 777 on satellite imagery at some known terrorist base
- You have to plan all these out without the NSA knowing anything about it or picking up any chatter.

It's pretty much implausible.

If the pilots knew where they were going, the only thing needing to be done is to lock the cockpit doors and fly high enough to where the passengers and crew are knocked unconscious. You're not going to get cell reception at 45,000 feet, let alone in the middle of the ocean. No one is phoning home...no one is fighting back. Given the degree of planning and equipment needed it would almost certainly need to be a state actor, but I don't find that at all improbable given what we know now.

It's sounding more and more likely that the plane was stolen, and unless you believe an almost flawlessly executed plan (up to the point we lost track of it) went wrong at some point, that plane likely reached its destination. Then the question is why and for what purpose...

 

[Falk]

They confirmed it was deliberate, but wouldn't go so far as to say hijack.

Which, considering the press' track record this past week, obviously translates into "BREAKING: CONFIRMED HIJACK". Go 21st century reporting!

 

[Anbokr]

Which, considering the press' track record this past week, obviously translates into "BREAKING: CONFIRMED HIJACK". Go 21st century reporting!

They (AP) cited an anonymous government official that reported at this point, internally, it's considered a "conclusive hijacking." Everything we know about what happened after take-off and up to the last ping sounds like a hijacking, now the question is simply: did it crash or land?

 

[SmokeMaxX]

As covered in the press conference(s), the blip that appeared on military radar was first acknowledged in a recording of the data, not in realtime. I'm assuming part of the reason the information might not have been immediately made public is national security. (You wouldn't want potential enemies to know something like that slips by)

The latest press conference says the raw data was shared with FAA/NTSB as soon as they started investigation, though.

What's Thailand's excuse? I heard their air defense was actually supposed to be good.

 

[liquidtmd]

The AP reported tonight that it is a confirmed hijacking.

Theyre confirming it...but unless they're not telling us key info they're only seemingly confirming it based on ruling out mechanical failure and via flight duration.

They're not confirming it as far as I can tell through direct evidence.

 

[aeroslash]

The more info i read the more it seems to me that it was hijacked. The things in my mind went something like this: hijackers tell the pilots to switch off the transponder and comms and to go somewhere else. After sometime the pilots were incapacitated and the hijackers took control of the plane without knowing shit, they got lost, run out of fuel and crashed..
In no way a pilot would climb above the airplane ceiling and i'm sure they would have landed somewhere.

 

[Catchpenny]

It would be infinitely easier to sneak one in with a small private jet with legit papers than a stolen 777 anyways.

The typical small private jet will not get you nearly as far as a 777-200ER can. If they somehow landed the plane in central Asia undetected (which seems impossible), this 777 with a full tank could reach any point in Europe, Asia or the Middle East without needing to stop.

The theory is way out there, I'm with you on that. However, I'm still unsure what they WOULD take a 777 for, unless it was to destroy or use the people/cargo on board.

 

[DiscoJer]

If the pilots knew where they were going, the only thing needing to be done is to lock the cockpit doors and fly high enough to where the passengers and crew are knocked unconscious. You're not going to get cell reception at 45,000 feet, let alone in the middle of the ocean. No one is phoning home...no one is fighting back. Given the degree of planning and equipment needed it would almost certainly need to be a state actor, but I don't find that at all improbable given what we know now.

It's sounding more and more likely that the plane was stolen, and unless you believe an almost flawlessly executed plan (up to the point we lost track of it) went wrong at some point, that plane likely reached its destination. Then the question is why and for what purpose...

They wouldn't have to fly all the way up to 45,000 ft to knock the passengers out. I think the masks deploy automatically at 14,000 feet, the pilots (or whoever) would just have to disable that as well as depressurize the cabin.

That's what's odd, flying that high. 20,000 feet probably would have been enough.

 

[2MF]

The more info i read the more it seems to me that it was hijacked. The things in my mind went something like this: hijackers tell the pilots to switch off the transponder and comms and to go somewhere else. After sometime the pilots were incapacitated and the hijackers took control of the plane without knowing shit, they got lost, run out of fuel and crashed..
In no way a pilot would climb above the airplane ceiling and i'm sure they would have landed somewhere.

This seems plausible.

 

[CREMSteve]

They wouldn't have to fly all the way up to 45,000 ft to knock the passengers out. I think the masks deploy automatically at 14,000 feet, the pilots (or whoever) would just have to disable that as well as depressurize the cabin.

That's what's odd, flying that high. 20,000 feet probably would have been enough.

?

I fly almost every day, and 14-20,000 ft would be on the low side of what we fly at. 30-35 is pretty standard.

 

[DoktorEvil]

Has anyone considered that if this was the work of terrorists there would be demands made or a tape sent to a national news affiliate to broadcast?

 

[SmokeMaxX]

The more info i read the more it seems to me that it was hijacked. The things in my mind went something like this: hijackers tell the pilots to switch off the transponder and comms and to go somewhere else. After sometime the pilots were incapacitated and the hijackers took control of the plane without knowing shit, they got lost, run out of fuel and crashed..
In no way a pilot would climb above the airplane ceiling and i'm sure they would have landed somewhere.

The hijackers managed to hijack the plane at the exact moment (or extremely small window) where Malaysian ATC handed off to Vietnamese ATC? Hijackers took control of the plane and managed to fly towards three popular waypoints but not know enough to see that they're running low on fuel? If it was hijacked and not by the pilots themselves, the hijackers would have to have great knowledge of what they were doing. I mean, if the hijackers were just plain dumb, the pilots could signal an emergency to ATC without the hijackers knowing.

 

[Red Comet]

The one thing that tells me that the plane wasn't crashed deliberately was because it wasn't brought down on land or near a population center, which you would assume it would be if it was someone who wanted to cause the most damage. So that means it was hijacked with the intention to land or something really bizarre occurred. Even if somebody did intend to land it, it's most probable that they got lost over the Indian Ocean and ran out of fuel.

 

[crozier]

They wouldn't have to fly all the way up to 45,000 ft to knock the passengers out. I think the masks deploy automatically at 14,000 feet, the pilots (or whoever) would just have to disable that as well as depressurize the cabin.

That's what's odd, flying that high. 20,000 feet probably would have been enough.

Edit: Yeah, height matters and 20k isn't high enough.

 

[Chinner]

where does the rand corporation come into this hijacking?

 

[Falk]

They wouldn't have to fly all the way up to 45,000 ft to knock the passengers out. I think the masks deploy automatically at 14,000 feet, the pilots (or whoever) would just have to disable that as well as depressurize the cabin.

That's what's odd, flying that high. 20,000 feet probably would have been enough.

Are you mixing up feet and metres? Typical 777 cruise altitude is 35,000 feet.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Who knows. Maybe they can dupe a transponder and sneak into another country.

Maybe they can use it as a crude nuclear missle or chemical/ bio weapon platform.

 

[brian577]

Maybe they can use it as a crude nuclear missle or chemical/ bio weapon platform.

Assuming the target was Europe or the U.S. could they even get it there before being detected and shot down? From my understanding, it's not really about the transponder as much as it's planes scheduled to be at certain places at certain times. An abnornal flight path would be detected by radar and intercepted

 

[1cmanny1]

They are just searching the pilots house now? The moment suicide even got mentioned I would have done that, and searched his web history. Not to mention any personal issues he might be having.

 

[crozier]

Assuming the target was Europe or the U.S. could they even get it there before being detected and shot down?

On a 777? Easily.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

Assuming the target was Europe or the U.S. could they even get it there before being detected and shot down? From my understanding, it's not really about the transponder as much as it's planes scheduled to be at certain places at certain times. An abnornal flight path would be detected by radar and intercepted

No idea, how low do you have to fly not to be picked up by US/EU radar?

 

[brian577]

On a 777? Easily.

Could you elaborate. Unless the conspirators have somebody working for the target country's aviation agency it would be very difficult to mask the plane as a legitimate flight.

 

[2MF]

They are just searching the pilots house now? The moment suicide even got mentioned I would have done that, and searched his web history. Not to mention any personal issues he might be having.

I would be surprised if the NSA wasn't going through his web history a few minutes after the plane was reported missing.

 

[aeroslash]

The hijackers managed to hijack the plane at the exact moment (or extremely small window) where Malaysian ATC handed off to Vietnamese ATC? Hijackers took control of the plane and managed to fly towards three popular waypoints but not know enough to see that they're running low on fuel? If it was hijacked and not by the pilots themselves, the hijackers would have to have great knowledge of what they were doing. I mean, if the hijackers were just plain dumb, the pilots could signal an emergency to ATC without the hijackers knowing.

Is the route confirmed? Did they really fly to those 3 waypoints? And if they did...was the climb to 45k feet after those 3 waypoints?

They could have forced the pilots to fly to those points amd after that take control of the plane. I can't get into my mind that the pilots climbed above the ceiling and i don't think they were the hijackers.

 

[Catchpenny]

I would be surprised if the NSA wasn't going through his web history a few minutes after the plane was reported missing.

I would be. The NSA may be all-seeing, but that doesn't mean they have the efficiency to match.

 

[Falk]

There's supposed to be another press conference in 30min. The one by PM was obviously a very carefully scripted affair. I'm assuming that we'll get a lot more answers and details in this next one considering questions will be entertained.

 

[Freaky Fred]

I would be. The NSA may be all-seeing, but that doesn't mean they have the efficiency to match.

that's what they want you to think

 

[crozier]

Could you elaborate. Unless the conspirators have somebody working for the target country's aviation agency it would be very difficult to mask the plane as a legitimate flight.

How so? If the plane has a transponder, they can give the receiving airport whatever information they want. The only thing I'm not sure about is the flight number.

 

[Catchpenny]

that's what they want you to think

Yes, that's what we want you to think.

 

[Javaman]

Yikes. I hope whoever stole this plane didn't see that documentary

Lol. That actually got a chuckle out if me.

I'm thing this was a suicide by one of the crew. They tried to cover it up ny disabling the comm systems and cvr, like that suicidal FedEx flight guy.


They-he I mean

 

[catmincer]

There's supposed to be another press conference in 30min. The one by PM was obviously a very carefully scripted affair. I'm assuming that we'll get a lot more answers and details in this next one considering questions will be entertained.

If you find a link can you post it?

 

[Chittagong]

Holy crap at deliberate action being conclusive.

Occam's Razor is failing me big time.

 

[brian577]

How so? If the plane has a transponder, they can give the receiving airport whatever information they want. The only thing I'm not sure about is the flight number.

Not an airport a plane approaching the border would have to be identified and verified as a commercial flight by military radar. If would have to follow a known flight path and would need a transponder signal that could be verified. Don't know how they do it in Europe but in the U.S. the ADIZ handles approaching aircraft.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Defense_Identification_Zone_(North_America)

 

[crozier]

Not an airport a plane approaching the border would have to be identified and verified as a commercial flight by military radar. If would have to follow a known flight path and would need a transponder signal that could be verified.

If the plane has a transponder, that's all the identification it needs. That's literally broadcasting its identity via radio. Planes aren't even require to fly with the transponder on over international water, the pilot would simply switch it on before being handed over to whatever zone his target it is. Everything would look perfectly normal on radar.

They can even submit their flight plans electronically I believe?

EDIT: The ADIZ is just a zone. The FAA handles international commercial flights, not the military.

 

[Fjolle]

Wow. That's some interesting news to wake up to..

If it went to Iran the fake passport guys are either brilliant or had about the worst luck ever.

 

[brian577]

They can even submit their flight plans electronically I believe?

You don't think that information is verified and confirmed? You would need somebody working within the government to forge that information.

EDIT: The ADIZ is just a zone. The FAA handles international commercial flights, not the military.

A zone that requires all aircraft to radio its planned course, destination, and any additional details about its trip through the ADIZ. All which needs be verified by the FAA.

 

[crozier]

You don't think that information is verified and confirmed? You would need somebody working within the government to forge that information.

No forgery needed. You can print one out from here:

http://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/ifim/intl_overview/

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Is the route confirmed? Did they really fly to those 3 waypoints? And if they did...was the climb to 45k feet after those 3 waypoints?

They could have forced the pilots to fly to those points amd after that take control of the plane. I can't get into my mind that the pilots climbed above the ceiling and i don't think they were the hijackers.

Not sure if the route is 100% confirmed, but pretty much everything the US has leaked to US press has turned out to be true later. I'm not sure if the pilots HAD to climb above the ceiling. That's for the transponders correct? They can just turn that off on their control panel.

How so? If the plane has a transponder, they can give the receiving airport whatever information they want. The only thing I'm not sure about is the flight number.

That's not true.

http://macsblog.com/2011/06/your-not-so-secret-id-number/

Did you know that your airplane has a distinctive identification number that is not your N number? And depending on what type of transponder you have, that special number may be broadcast automatically without you even knowing it.

The special identification number is assigned to every registered airplane. The number is sometimes called the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) number, or can be labeled the Mode S number. The reason it is called the ICAO identification is because unlike the registration (N number) it is unique for the world, not just a single country.

PPRUNE discussed this a while back:
Starts at http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-140.html and goes for a few pages after that:

It has a code you can enter for that flight, but also a code in the background unique to the airframe. It is - in computer terms - a MAC address and is used like that for data communications in the background.

MODE S and ADSB transmit as part of the extended squitter the airframes unique ICAO 24bit address.

It is hard coded and cannot be changed.

Holy crap at deliberate action being conclusive.

Occam's Razor is failing me big time.

Occam's Razor was never meant to directly discover the truth. It doesn't say the simplest answer is the correct one.

 

[Falk]

If you find a link can you post it?

Link?

 

[Jimrpg]

Holy crap at deliberate action being conclusive.

Occam's Razor is failing me big time.

Disagree

we knew that it changed direction... looking back in hindsight that looks deliberate as hell.

Like I said before I think the plane has landed - they absolutely nailed taking over the plane, and seems they planned out every detail. There is an end game. I don't see the pilot crashing it after 7 hours of flying.

Man I hope they don't fly it back into Malaysia and crash it into something...

 

[MistakenMobius]

Are you mixing up feet and metres? Typical 777 cruise altitude is 35,000 feet.

He is speaking of depressurizing the cabine.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Link?

I think he wants a link to the press conference.

 

[catmincer]

I think he wants a link to the press conference.

Yup. That's right, should have been more specific heh.

 

[SpyGuy239]

this is crazy news to be waking up in the morning for.

At least the passengers are still alive somewhere, that's what's most important.

 

[crozier]

That's not true.

That's exactly what I meant by flight number. I was wondering whether it can be changed, or whether it even needs to be. I'm not sure what role, if anything, that identifier plays in routine flying.

 

[Falk]

I think he wants a link to the press conference.

It's taking place soon, not already done, but helpful stuff:

http://www.astroawani.com/videos/live The most reliable stream in my experience (no ads is a plus)

2014-03-15 2pm Prime Minister's Press Conference Transcript + Audio

2014-03-14 5:30pm Press Conference (notes)

2014-03-13 5:30pm Press Conference (notes)

edit: Twitter says the 5:30pm one today isn't happening anymore. My bad.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

this is crazy news to be waking up in the morning for.

At least the passengers are still alive somewhere, that's what's most important.

...
Do you know something you're not telling us?