Rock vs. Cena has been talked about to death. The one-hour special that aired before the go-home Raw on USA epitomized the entire promotion of the match. The special consisted of an hour of footage showing us that Rock and Cena are huge stars and nice, successful guys. Rock is the super cool movie star with charisma, who has achieved things out of the business that no pro wrestler in history ever has. Cena is the face of modern pro wrestling, promoted as a great guy who forgives those who hate him and tries to kill them with kindness, is loyal to his childhood friends, a tireless worker, always has a smile, is wonderful to kids who are sick, and in being the eras biggest star, hasnt let his success go to his head.
What has been clear from the start is that the WWEs goal out of this program, and this is not a wrong idea, is to use the star power of Rock to elevate Cena. Cena is the eras biggest star, but he is not the star that Steve Austin, Rock or Hulk Hogan were, but he is still, at 34, one of the bigger stars in the history of the industry. Hes never been the kind of one man difference maker at the gate that separates the stars of wrestling from the mega stars, even as compared to the heyday of people like Bruno Sammartino or The Sheik, but thats really a very small category of people from a historical standpoint.
Hes on top during an era where wrestling isnt as popular, isnt as cool, but is still financially successful. As a celebrity, hes in some ways more well known than all but the handful of biggest names in history, yet in other ways, he doesnt have that kind of impact that will make people a generation later consider him that kind of modern folk hero. While Cena is a bigger star than Dave Bautista, the two were contemporaries, and when Bautista retired, no matter how big his match with HHH was and how many world titles he held, its pretty clear his long-term legacy and staying power in the minds of the public is hardly at the level of similar level stars of the past. But when you are in a genuine dream match, its like a notch on your belt as an icon that you never fully lose.
Going in, everyone expected, not just because the show was in Miami, where Rock has lived on-and-off since playing college football for the Miami Hurricanes, that Cena would be booed out of the building like never before. Hes never faced anyone with Rocks popularity. And at WrestleMania, where the percentage of adult males who travel from around the world is large, Cena always gets booed heavily anyway. And thats not what the company wants. They want the money the match could bring, but they never heightened emotions past a certain level. They didnt want fans to choose one or the other. They wanted them to choose both, which is very tricky, when the audience had already chosen.
The storyline pushed in the video, and everywhere, is Cena has been unfairly maligned by a large percentage of the fan base who thinks they are cool for booing him, but really are the most uncool. Will the result be those fans see this image of Cena and think they were wrong? Will they think they are now uncool and change? Will the fact Cena smiles and doesnt care about being booed make the fans realize they cant get to him and stop? And is that the desired reaction, because the key is making people care a lot. The scene of him signing a Cena sux T-shirt with a smile on his face, the scene of his work with Make a Wish and such should make it hard to boo him.
Promoting the match, the background of the match, why these two dont like each other, and why the match is important was another subject. I spent an hour watching the countdown show that will air all week on the NBC Universal family of cable stations to see all those elements, none of which were there. The show is still going to do well. Record business? Well see.
On Raw, the final show built to the two in the ring once again. Rock was entertaining, but it has been clear since the attempts to make Cena the bigger babyface in this match, that there has been an edge lost when he comes out. Cena isnt booed anywhere near as heavily as a few weeks back, but hes not cheered. The two stood there, with Cena going on a long speech while Rock acted mad but did nothing, and Rock doing a comeback while Cena smiled and smirked almost coming across as saying, We both know Im going to win at the end.
I dont think there is anything wrong with a complete lack of physical angles in the top two matches, but Cena and Rock did the same thing over and over, except when they sang and rapped. It never escalated into anything but two great personalities cutting promos. Instead, Cena tried to say the match determines how hes viewed historically and thus he cant lose. Rock said he needs the win to be considered the all-time greatest, the only guy to beat Hogan, Austin and Cena all at Mania. But he said it with less conviction, more like he knows he has to say hes going to win, while not harping on it. If anything, the Fruity Pebbles story on the countdown show, where Rock called Cena that as a slur and it led to Cena getting an endorsement deal where hes on the box of the cereal only told us that Cena should love the guy for helping make him more famous.
But both are also very smart promoters. Cena has been very convincing that he doesnt like Rock, whether true or not. Rock seems annoyed by Cena. He absolutely didnt like what Cena said years ago about how he turned his back on wrestling. Still, if he really didnt like him that much, when he came back, hed have chosen to wrestle someone else. He could have picked his program, and Cena was the one he chose.
In an AP story, Rock said, I came back to put on the biggest match of all-time. Thats all I want to do. Theres no one I can do that with right now other than John. Hes far and above everyone else in terms of popularity. Hes the guy. Is he Stone Cold? No. Is he Hogan? No. But he is John Cena and hes been on top for a long time now.
This will be the sixth time Rock has headlined WrestleMania (if you include last year, which, while he was not in the main event, he was clearly the headliner). Only Hulk Hogan, with ten true WrestleMania headlining matches, would be ahead of him. Cena, even though the face of the company, has only truly headlined twice before, the 2006 show vs. HHH and last years show. He was on last in the title match in 2007 but the real main event on that show was Bobby Lashley vs. Umaga with Vince McMahon and Donald Trumps hair at stake. Three main events puts him behind Michaels (five), as well as Bret Hart, HHH and Steve Austin (four).
They may very well dislike each other, and those close to the situation believe thats the case. The idea was certainly to make it appear like Bret Hart and Michaels in 1997, where everyone was convinced their dislike was more than just storyline, which turned into the most unique work of all. Both were in on it from the start. Both were working the talent, and everyone, from the start. Both were convincing to everyone that there was a big element of shooting in every interview. And the punch line was, they both worked everyone so well that they worked themselves into frenzies that saw them each get so mad that the big match was delayed and delayed and it never drew the money it should have. This is much bigger just because the two guys are much bigger stars and because wrestling is much bigger.
They may still do record business on PPV. Last years show grossed more money than any show in wrestling history. With Rock wrestling in a dream match instead of just being guest host, on paper, that should mean more, perhaps considerably more. But there is certainly some question if that will be the case.
At press time, five days before the show, there were about 61,300 tickets out. A little under 2,000 remaining at ticket outlets and there were 5,200 tickets left on stubhub (they are included in the 61,300 figure) alone when it comes to unsold secondary market tickets first purchased largely by scalpers, who for the most part are taking a bath on this show because the consumer demand wasnt as high as expected. Available tickets on the secondary market are priced as low as $13.99 and will probably fall from there over the next few days. Ringside tickets, which were originally priced at $1,500, were still going at a premium, selling for $2,500 minimum this week and one third row seat in the last few days sold for $7,400. Even though the stadium will probably be full with around 65,000 people, and be announced as a sellout of around 75,000, it did fall short as far as being that kind of must-see high demand event that many WrestleManias in the past have been. Is that a hint about the buy rate? Probably not. The 2008 show had the second most number of tickets given away (behind only 1992), and was one of the bigger PPV numbers in history. House show business is good right now, but this is the good season and it is down from the same period the last two years. Ratings remain strongly disappointing. It is a cause for concern when 25% fewer people watched the go-home Raw this year than last year.
WrestleMania will bring in tens of millions to the South Florida economy. Its no longer just the biggest show of the year, but endless autograph shows and other events, including the Hall of Fame and Raw the day after, are put on in conjunction. There are very few tickets left for the Hall of Fame and Raw, both of which will be sold out by show time. The city of Miami and Dade County pledged up to $2 million in cash, free venue space and a lot of donated services to get all the tourists, who come in for the show, as well as not just WWE events, but all the piggybacking events from companies like ROH, Dragon Gate USA and the WrestleReunion convention.
Still, this will still be a gigantic event, probably a good to great show and a huge money making promotion. Last year at this time in Atlanta, there were fewer tickets available at this point and that show was actually not sold out according to figures from the Georgia Dome released weeks later.
As far as what could and should happen:
John Cena vs. The Rock - One would think going in this match will have the most emotion. Rock is still by far the biggest star on this stage. Cena is both hated and loved at the same time, usually with fervent passion. As far as the result goes, logical booking, which often doesnt apply to WWE because fooling people and doing the opposite of logic is often a key part, would say Cena should go over. Its not a secret that was the original idea. Cena is the one staying and having to carry the company. Rock will be back, but no idea when, and a loss by Rock isnt going to hurt him in the slightest. However, if the plan is to rematch the two, Rock could go over the first time. Who wins is a lot less important than not having a bad match or a bad finish.
The most interesting dynamic of who gets their hand raised is this. For the wrestlers and the company, Cena is their guy and Rock is the outsider from Hollywood. Most, but not all, do recognize his importance to the show. I think even the ones who deny it deep down know it. But to them, Cena should win, because wrestling common sense is the guy staying beats the guy leaving. To the audience, it is almost a certainty that when they bought their tickets, it was to see Rock beat Cena. Tickets havent moved all that fast in the last few weeks when the two personalities got muddled. The build stopped at some point being primary about the match. It switched to building Cena as a face and elevating him as a star, through his link with Rock. But just as much, it appears the attempt is to shame a large percentage of ticket buyers into having some sort of introspection that they were wrong all along and the people who cheered Cena were right. For the biggest pop at the end of the night, the usual goal of a show, Cena should play subtle heel, and Rock should go over with the peoples elbow. But this isnt about one isolated show, its about the company.
Undertaker vs. HHH in a Hell in a Cell match with Shawn Michaels as referee - The only reason Undertaker should lose is if he is retiring. The impression we have gotten is hes not retiring and will be back next year. If he was to lose, HHH, isnt the guy to do it, unless they have the idea of making him a lead heel and work a fairly regular schedule, and right now as the guy being groomed to take over the company, the one part of the business he knows already is that between the ropes. Its a lot more important for him to be learning the other aspects of the business than being a regular in-ring performer. And a part-time performer shouldnt be the one to end the streak.