From my experience, I have won against Phoenix just as many matches as I have lost against her. A lot of my wins came from random hypers.
On the topic of discussion:
I think someone said it correctly. Phoenix technology is evolving faster than anti-Phoenix technology. And I just don't mean Phoenix as a character alone, I mean Phoenix team strategy.
Tokido's use of Phoenix as a decoy or back up is going to be the future of Phoenix. Phoenix was once viewed as a crippling factor but Tokido removed that crippling aspect of her which allowed him to dominate.
People say that she has low health and needs 5 bar and X factor thus she is balanced. Not really. Accumulating 5 bars in this game is stupid easy. Tokido burns meter all day and burns X Factor, still plays with Phoenix. This is possible because he always ends up with a net gain of meter in combos. Basically, if you get in ONE full combo as a Phoenix player you are guaranteed Dark Phoenix because the meter you get from the deaths of your 3 characters will fuel the meter.
On the topic of low health, once she gets 5 bars she effectively has the most health in the game which comes with a COMBO BREAKER (no other character in the game has access to something like this).
The only legit strategy against her as said a million times is snapback and force a 50/50 mix up on her. This has become difficult over time especially when someone like Tokido is using Wolverine on point who's sole purpose is to act as the gate keeper for Phoenix. He gets a throw on your point character or a touch, he will X Factor and kill the character and then force a 50/50 mix up on your next character. If you survive the onslaught then you are still left fighting 2 v 4 or 1 v 4 and there is not enough LVL3 X factor juice to help you fight against that. This is the worst case scenario to be in and this happens a lot when you get distracted by Phoenix enough to have Wolverine run through your team. Actually worst case scenario is if you get HAPPY BIRTHDAY'D from the get go and your 3rd character has to eat a 50/50 mix up against X Factor'd Wolverine.
Scenario#1 for the non-Phoenix player is they get the first hit on Wolverine. Two things are possible here. X Factor to kill Wolverine and possibly Sentinel too on the 50/50 in coming mix up. Oh wait... your best case scenario had now shifted the odds in favor for Phoenix who gets fueled from her other 2 characters dying. You take out Wolverine/Sentinel with X Factor, you are already dead.
Scenario #2 is you get a hit on Wolverine and you snap back. You may never get the hit on Phoenix to kill her as most Phoenix players have learned to buy enough time to hard tag out. This will cause a problem of you always behind in meter management and Wolverine will be able to run a truck through you as you are afraid to use meter/X Factor to kill him off. Assuming you DO get the hit off on Phoenix and you burn no more than 1 meter to kill her. This is the only best case scenario and it's a rare one where you have "beaten the odds". However, you haven't won the game yet... not even close to it. You have to deal with Wolverine who has meter/X factor advantage over you now and you have to deal with LVL3 XF Sentinel if that happens. The story still remains, if Wolverine gets a hit on you then you are at risk of losing 2 characters and your best case scenario is starting to look a lot like worst case scenario especially if you get HAPPY BIRTHDAY'D. This is only alleviated if you get a hit on Wolverine when he is coming in after the Phoenix kill and X Factor kill him for the win.
Both of these scenarios are in favor of the anti-Phoenix player yet as you can see these turn awry as the game goes on. Where as the Phoenix player, no matter what he does he is going to be in a favorable position. Get a combo/throw with Wolverine? Great you are hurting the opposition and fueling Phoenix. Waste opponent snapbacks/meter/X Factor? Great you are ahead of the opponent in resource management and if they wasted X Factor they are already dead. Get your entire team killed except Phoenix? No problems, you are still sitting on 4 meters and a few fireballs will see you to Dark Phoenix and the game will then shift back to your favor.
This team of Wolverine/Phoenix turns the match into a game of odds, odds that heavily favor the Phoenix player. You can have all the anti-Phoenix tech that you want, it's not going to do you any good against the Wolverine onslaught. Wolverine is not afraid to burn resources to kill the anti-Phoenix factor on the opposing team.
After this session of tournaments, a meta game has emerged and that is the Phoenix meta. Bottomline: If you don't have legit anti-Phoenix technology or you don't have Phoenix on your team then you aren't going to win a major. Even those with anti-Phoenix technology have to play MUCH better than the player using Phoenix. You cannot have a dedicated zoning team because Phoenix teams walk over zoners. Only way you can win a major tournament with a dedicated zoning team is if you have a Phoenix on your team as well. Meta game has also upgraded the status and value of characters like Wolverine/Wesker/Magneto who can be put at the front of a Phoenix team and dictate the flow of the match.
Basically, everyone is going to have multiple sets of teams. Standard rushdown/mix up team, zoning team (or essentially anti-rushdown), mixed team, anti-Phoenix team and Phoenix team. We saw Justin bust out Wolverine/Ammy/Tron as an attempt to counter the Phoenix team and it was some what successful.
And one more thing... Daigo is most probably going to be using Phoenix as well and most players know of this. Japan is now a legitimate threat in MVC3 and USA has officially been put on notice.
On the topic of bans/nerfs:
Bans is a stupid idea. And like mentioned before, if you ban Phoenix then there is legitimate grounds to ban Dante/Wolverine/Wesker/Magneto etc. as well.
X Factor nerf plus DHC glitch removal is the priority. An X Factor nerf would lower the power of Dark Phoenix some although she would still be a powerful character especially on someone like Tokido's team. LVL3 puts her at a level that people are scared to fight her and it shouldn't be like that. Also Phoenix/Dark Phoenix X Factor boosts should be reversed and the way that X Factor works with the feather projectiles needs tweaking as well.
@ Enzo: LOL dude Phoenix is Top 3 easily in this game. Let me put it simple in terms. Let's say you are an average player against an above average player. He beats you consistently all the time and you have to play against him in a tournament. You have a Phoenix team in the bag and your normal team just doesn't cut it against him. With Phoenix at your disposal, you can effectively cover the skill gap and beat him on odds/random factor. That is essentially what happened this weekend. Tokido is an exceptional player but I am confident in saying that Combofiend, Justin Wong and ChrisG are the 3 best MVC3 players right now. Justin Wong vs ChrisG is what MVC3 matches should be like, a test of skill, nerves, ability and mind games. That is the power of Phoenix and that is why she is hated. Players like Tokido and Viscant have broken down Phoenix to a science where they have shifted the odds game heavily in their favor.
