Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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Djau said:
Well it would kinda be deserved then in that case wouldn't it? Everyone wants to go outside; but its important to stick with it till its safe.
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Yeah, can't say you're wrong. If people don't listen to the experts and the worst happens it would be deserved.

My street in particular has been pretty bustling the last few days. People outside, hanging out in moderate sized groups. Clearly no one gives a shit anymore.
 
Djau said:
Well it would kinda be deserved then in that case wouldn't it? Everyone wants to go outside; but its important to stick with it till its safe.
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No one "deserves" to get sick. What a shitty mindset you have.

It will never be "safe" to go outside.
 
Zefah said:
No one "deserves" to get sick. What a shitty mindset you have.

It will never be "safe" to go outside.
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No one deserves to die or get sick; but if you go specifically against the advice and sow the consequences of that choice; then what can be said?

As for it will never be 'safe', yeah your right.

In some countries.
 
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No one deserves to get sick for sure, and I'd never wish harm upon anyone.

However, people are certainly more or less deserving of empathy and sympathy. I feel awful for any workers being forced to return to work or lose unemployment benefits who end up getting sick, especially those in high-risk groups and/or living with people in those groups. And I feel awful for anyone who has to return to work for financial reasons as they're unemployment benefits and stimulus checks have yet to come through.

On the other hand, I'm not going to feel very sorry for the owners who force them back to work, or the people protesting to go back to work, if they get sick. Nor the people we saw congregating in groups of 20-30 on our walks this week (we zig zag and cross the road and stay as far as we can from other people) having barbecues in the park, having kid's birthday parties in front yards with cake and drink tables set up etc. and no one wearing masks.

Again, I don't by any means hope those people get sick, or especially that they die. But it's hard to feel any sympathy for people freely choosing to take the risk vs. those having the choice taken away from them by employers. If we have a major second and/or third wave it's going to be the fault of those folks. Especially the knuckleheads having parties, barbecues etc. and not socially distancing. That's far more dangerous that re-opened business that are at least making some effort, to distance, wear masks and sanitize often.
 
Zefah said:
No one "deserves" to get sick. What a shitty mindset you have.

It will never be "safe" to go outside.
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It will never be safe to go outside because it never was safe to go outside; we can get hit by a car, shot by a stray bullet, attacked by a crazy person, or catch some other illness that could kill us, maybe even one with a recovery rate lower than 99.9%.

Never stopped us before.
 
diffusionx said:
It will never be safe to go outside because it never was safe to go outside; we can get hit by a car, shot by a stray bullet, attacked by a crazy person, or catch some other illness that could kill us, maybe even one with a recovery rate lower than 99.9%.

Never stopped us before.
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this is a stupid take
 
Moogle11 said:
No one deserves to get sick for sure, and I'd never wish harm upon anyone.

However, people are certainly more or less deserving of empathy and sympathy.
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Really? I don't think most people held back their sympathies for people who came down with colds, or the flu, or any other infectious illness through community spread from going to work, school, or getting it from their children.

We need to figure out a way to live with Coronavirus. It's going to be with us for the foreseeable future and longterm lockdowns are not feasible.
 
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They just had a doctor on Fox news talking about Remdesivir and kept screaching "BUT CHINA!" to try to discredit the study.

So when China says something that fits their narrative, they believe China.
 
cryptoadam said:
For my video.

Looks like we are seeing blood clotting in cases. Testing for blood clotting is difficult and can introduce other complications. So some doctors might just have to make a choice of to treat or not with blood thinners.

Just some more signs that this virus has a lot more tricks up its sleeve.
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That would make sense with the strokes we're seeing in kids.
 
Zefah said:
Really? I don't think most people held back their sympathies for people who came down with colds, or the flu, or any other infectious illness through community spread from going to work, school, or getting it from their children.

We need to figure out a way to live with Coronavirus. It's going to be with us for the foreseeable future and longterm lockdowns are not feasible.
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There is no Need for Longterm Lockdown.
What is needed is pushing the numbers down to a point were they are managable. Germany opened up a week ago and is doing fine. R0 is at about 0,7 right now and numbers are stabilizing (going a bit up today). Noone is saying that we need to Lockdown for ever. But if you open up to early, every effort you've taken before could become useless.
 
Zefah said:
Really? I don't think most people held back their sympathies for people who came down with colds, or the flu, or any other infectious illness through community spread from going to work, school, or getting it from their children.

We need to figure out a way to live with Coronavirus. It's going to be with us for the foreseeable future and longterm lockdowns are not feasible.
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I didn't say long term lockdowns were possible. My remarks are just focused on my local experience of stuff being opened up way too soon here in the Atlanta area (I.e. way ahead of the federal guidelines) where it's still an active hot spot and other places doing the same.

I'm totally ok with businesses reopening in places where it's safe. Not in places where it's still an active outbreak and especially not skipping ahead to reopening close-contact businesses that are in phase 2 of the federal plan.

The federal guidelines seem mostly reasonable to me. States need to stick to them AND let local leaders decide when to begin reopening as the number of cases varies dramatically across cities and counties within states. Do that and I'll have full sympathy for any and all who get sick.

But I won't for the owners and people freely opting to return to work in areas that are still hot spots and don't meet the federal guidelines to begin phase 1 (much less phase 2) and won't be giving the business that reopen early in such conditions my business in the future. Thankfully it seems like more places are staying closed (or carry out/delivery only) than not for now. At least among the local places I regular give business too. Happy to keep supporting those places and asked my local gym owner to restar my dues to support them as they made the right call of staying closed and not committing to a reopening date yet.

And there's just no excuse for large parties, barbecued etc until we have a vaccine or herd immunity. It's one thing to get back to work. It's another to risk super spreader situations that lead to people spreading it and taking it to work and leading to another shut down. Social distancing is going to be a fact of life until a vaccine/herd immunity if we don't want to have another longer shut down. Get business back open as we can, keep ban on large gatherings.
 
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EviLore said:
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Wanted to see if this was posted.

A little more:

EAAR4yhl.jpeg
 
This rich person who is not an expert in a field that applies to the current crisis agrees with my worldview! Look at how smart he is! I will point to them as some kind of authority figure!
 
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Zefah said:
How does someone get to his position without knowing it's probably a bad idea to threaten to round up the Jews with law enforcement?
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Why? Any other group would have been rounded up long ago and thrown in jail if they were so flagrantly breaking the law during a public health emergency. They absolutely should be fined and/or thrown in jail if they continue to congregate in large groups publicly. They have been the epicenter for every outbreak of every transmissible disease in NYC for the last 15 years.
 
Game Analyst said:
Excellent news...

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Update on Oxford's COVID-19 vaccine.

"The faster timetable, they say, is because their vaccine has been in development for decades in an effort to stop other coronaviruses. Now it's been adjusted for COVID-19 and tested on six monkeys, who did not get sick after exposure to the virus." (4/28/20)

 
diffusionx said:
3-5% would need ventilators if the virus was as deadly and dangerous as the initial reports said, and what this government strategy of quasi-lockdowns was based on. It's just not the case though, and I think we have learned that over the past month.

Now that we are seeing more and more antibody tests come out, it's striking how consistent they all are, which of course makes intuitive sense.
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The reports from all over are 3-5% serious, even the world number is at 3%. I don't think these are wrong.
pLow7 said:
Apparently the viral Load of Childrens is as high as the viral load of Adults.
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The power of natural selection is highest prior to age of reproduction, and is still strong near that age. It gets weaker the farther away you get from it and the older the individual. That is why there is more resistance to symptoms and damage.



 
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"The coronavirus pandemic continues to claim lives around the world. As countries grapple with how best to tackle the virus, and the reverberations the pandemic is sending through their societies and economies, scientific understanding of how the COVID-19 virus is behaving and what measures might best combat it continues to advance. What strategy has Sweden embraced and why? Can a herd immunity strategy work in the fight against COVID-19? How insightful is it to compare different nations' approaches and what does the degree of variation reveal?

Professor Heymann is a world-leading authority on infectious disease outbreaks. He led the World Health Organization's response to SARS and has been advising the organization on its response to the coronavirus.

Professor Giesecke is professor emeritus of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the Karolinska Institute Medical University in Stockholm. He was state epidemiologist for Sweden from 1995 to 2005 and the first chief scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) from 2005 to 2014." (4/29/20)



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Game Analyst said:
Update on Oxford's COVID-19 vaccine.

"The faster timetable, they say, is because their vaccine has been in development for decades in an effort to stop other coronaviruses. Now it's been adjusted for COVID-19 and tested on six monkeys, who did not get sick after exposure to the virus." (4/28/20)

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Monkeys you say?

 
Fauci praising Remdesivir to be able to block the virus.

Oxford has a vaccine working on monkeys and not making them sick.

The doom and gloomers who wanted this to last through November are going to be on suicide watch.
 
Just saw that Florida is planning to start re-opening Monday and is doing it much smarter than Georgia by excluding Dade, Palm Beach and Broward counties were most of their cases are concentrated.
 
OSC said:
The reports from all over are 3-5% serious, even the world number is at 3%. I don't think these are wrong.
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Is the 3-5% based on CONFIRMED cases though? That's the key point. If 100x more people were infected than confirmed, then the actual rate of serious cases is 100x lower than 3%-5%.

This is what I have been yelling about for weeks. Confirmed rate is just a function of tests, and tests haven't been widespread.


EviLore said:
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Is there anything worse than Nurse Cringe at this point?

Moogle11 said:
Just saw that Florida is planning to start re-opening Monday and is doing it much smarter than Georgia by excluding Dade, Palm Beach and Broward counties were most of their cases are concentrated.
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I'd still argue that places with more cases can and should open up sooner. They are more ready to move into the "Sweden approach" and build up immunity in the populace. Like if NYC has 30% infection rate, it's good to go.
 
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www.theverge.com

Elon Musk says shelter-in-place orders during COVID-19 are ‘fascist’

This is Musk’s latest pushback against coronavirus-related safety measures.
www.theverge.com www.theverge.com

"If somebody wants to stay in the house that's that's great. They should be allowed to stay in the house and they should not be compelled to leave. But to say that they cannot leave their house and they will be arrested if they do... this is fascist," Musk said Wednesday. "This is not democratic. This is not freedom. Give people back their goddamn freedom."
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Funny how he's being roasted online by the left. They hate him for being a shitlord and meme necromancer, but they throw money at him to drive trendy Teslas.
 
"Ryan noted that instead of lockdowns, the country has "put in place a very strong public policy around social distancing, around caring and protecting people in long term care facilities." "What it has done differently is it has very much relied on its relationship with its citizenry and the ability and willingness of its citizens to implement self-distancing and self-regulate," Ryan said. "In that sense, they have implemented public policy through that partnership with the population." He said the country also ramped up testing and had adequate capacity in hospitals to handle any outbreaks. "I think if we are to reach a new normal, Sweden represents a model if we wish to get back to a society in which we don't have lockdowns," Ryan said. The country, which has a population of 10.3 million, has seen more than 20,300 cases and 2,462 deaths as of Thursday afternoon — far higher than its Nordic neighbors, which implemented stricter containment measures, the latest data shows." (4/29/20)

WHO lauds lockdown-ignoring Sweden as a 'model' for countries going forward
 
diffusionx said:
Is the 3-5% based on CONFIRMED cases though? That's the key point. If 100x more people were infected than confirmed, then the actual rate of serious cases is 100x lower than 3%-5%.

This is what I have been yelling about for weeks. Confirmed rate is just a function of tests, and tests haven't been widespread.
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If it was so inconsequential why did china see such severe outcomes and had to implement such a massive lockdown?

We've seen out of confirmed cases 1/6th out of every person over 60 died, iirc. We also have places like south korea that did heavy testing

South korea had 2% death rate

And out of 1500 active cases it seems 55 are in serious condition which is around 4% in serious condition.
 
OSC said:
If it was so inconsequential why did china see such severe outcomes and had to implement such a massive lockdown?

We've seen out of confirmed cases 1/6th out of every person over 60 died, iirc. We also have places like south korea that did heavy testing

South korea had 2% death rate

And out of 1500 active cases it seems 55 are in serious condition which is around 4% in serious condition.
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You can't derive any wide-scale numbers or assumptions on this thing from confirmed cases. That's all I am saying. Confirmed cases is a function of tests given, but it doesn't include people who haven't been tested.

I don't believe for a second that South Korea, a country with one of the densest and most populous cities in the world, has 11,000 cases (and 246 deaths). There's just no way. It defies all belief. Especially when it is very well known that a huge chunk of people (up to 50%) have no symptoms whatsoever.
 
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Of course the narrative will shift that even if they test everybody that's not enough and they need to test everyone twice. Then three times. Continue moving the goalposts.
 
diffusionx said:
You can't derive any wide-scale numbers or assumptions on this thing from confirmed cases. That's all I am saying. Confirmed cases is a function of tests given, but it doesn't include people who haven't been tested.

I don't believe for a second that South Korea, a country with one of the densest and most populous cities in the world, has 11,000 cases (and 246 deaths). There's just no way. It defies all belief. Especially when it is very well known that a huge chunk of people (up to 50%) have no symptoms whatsoever.
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"We have tested over 350,000 cases so far—some patients are tested many times before they are released, so we can say they are fully cured. Altogether, we're talking about one out of 145 or one out of 150 people having been tested so far." -barrons
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The US and South Korea are not far behind, having each done more than 10,000 tests per million residents. -businessinsider
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They've done massive testing though
 
ManaByte said:


Of course the narrative will shift that even if they test everybody that's not enough and they need to test everyone twice. Then three times. Continue moving the goalposts.
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Who tests the testers?!
 
OSC said:
They've done massive testing though
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Yes, testing to see if people are sick with it, not tests if they have been sick with it.

I'm not sure how much clearer I can make it, unless you think the government has identified every single person who has been sick with COVID-19, which is beyond implausible. They're estimating 2-3 million people in NYC have had it, versus the 160,000 confirmed cases. Even if South Korea did a massively better job than the NYC government, which is a very likely situation, I still don't think it is possible for them to catch every single person sick. Especially when, yet again, a large chunk of people show no symptoms.

Every antibody study that has been done has shown that 10-50x more people have antibodies than have been confirmed.

Zefah said:
Who tests the testers?!
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The Coast Guard
 
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My work is bringing 10% of the people back into the office mid May. They have to sit several cubicles apart, must wear masks and do meetings via conference call/screen share. What's the point of going back to an office if you have to avoid people and wear an uncomfortable mask all day? Should just keep everyone working at home if those are the rules. Luckily they are only taking volunteers for now so I can avoid that.
 
diffusionx said:
Every antibody study that has been done has shown that 10-50x more people have antibodies than have been confirmed.
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If those antibodies weren't for a similar disease, then why did we see an exponential growth line that was getting dangerously high? If one 4th or one 5th of new yorkers have had it there ain't much room for growth, with its high r0 in a week or two you reach near 100% and that's peak. It definitely did not seem like the exponential curve was about to peak in one week or two.
 
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OSC said:
If those antibodies weren't for a similar disease, then why did we see an exponential growth line that was getting dangerously high? If one 4th or one 5th of new yorkers have had it there ain't much room for growth, with its high r0 in a week or two you reach near 100% and that's peak. It definitely did not seem like the exponential curve was about to peak in one week or two.
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So again, for the third time, all that info is based on confirmed cases, which doesnt tell us anything about who actually has it. If there was anything that grew exponentially, it was the amount of tests we were giving out to the populace.

For background,

www.cnbc.com

New York antibody study estimates 13.9% of residents have had the coronavirus, Gov. Cuomo says

The state's mortality rates remains persistently high at about 7.4%. The antibody testing indicates the actual death rate may be far lower.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

I think there was a follow up that Cuomo talked about this week.
 
diffusionx said:
So again, for the third time, all that info is based on confirmed cases, which doesnt tell us anything about who actually has it. If there was anything that grew exponentially, it was the amount of tests we were giving out to the populace.

For background,

www.cnbc.com

New York antibody study estimates 13.9% of residents have had the coronavirus, Gov. Cuomo says

The state's mortality rates remains persistently high at about 7.4%. The antibody testing indicates the actual death rate may be far lower.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

I think there was a follow up that Cuomo talked about this week.
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it wasn't just the tests, but the fraction of the tested that were found positive.

Look at what happened in the case study of the bus, one person got in and people in the bus up to 8 feet away even people that got in 30 minute laters got infected.

How did such a high number of people not only get infected but cured? If it is so infectious, those people should have infected significantly more who're yet to develop antibodies. In fact by now most of the population would be infected in such a scenario.
 
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