Rödskägg;230399674 said:
Yes, obviously everyone is making lots of plans. My point was that it's unlikely they will do this and even if they did, would it suddenly break the western alliances to bits and make us susceptible to conquering by the russians? I'm sure you agree this is not a likely scenario.
Some other people replied to you, so I'll just address this particular bit.
You are being misled if you think that NATO/EU wouldn't be at risk of crumbling down
if Russia moved into the Baltics. A number of polls and studies were conducted after the invasion of Crimea and they show that many citizens wouldn't like to be involved in a situation like that. Plenty of people in the EU don't even know that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are members of the EU. They are tiny countries nobody care about with "funny names" and Russian sounding people; for all they care, they are Russian off-shots that somehow managed to become independent. They don't have a strong opinion about their current status or anything at all. This same mindset is shared to a degree towards some of the Visegrad Group.
Pew Research published some work about this:
The lack of education about the European project is
by far our biggest problem. We know little about our neighbours and there's not a lot of solidarity.
Not wanting to follow on Article 5 is a huge issue. The risk compounds because Russia would use covert operations by sending little green men and instill Russian nationalism in the Baltics to make it look like a popular uprising/internal problem. While Poland would be quick to blast those irregular soldiers on the spot, a good portion of the Baltics could be easily overrun while the rest of NATO and the EU debate what to do and figure out the situation.
Countries like Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic would split right away if the EU or NATO show a lack of determination defending their members and allies. And they'd be right in that. An alliance that doesn't defend its partners is not an alliance. Then the rest would follow as NATO's purpose vanishes.
The current situation in Ukrainie was both a message to former vassal states getting ideas of acting independently of Russia and a test for a potential strategy to effectively destroy NATO without getting into an all out war. It would be a risky move for Russia, but defence strategies are devised to counter scenarios such as this one and we've already seen that Russia sees value in such tactics.
For the record, I don't like NATO. At all. I'm an European Federalist and I want a proper European army to defend our own interests without the political interference of foreign nations. But things being the way they are, the EU needs to do something about its defence strategy. And until we can deploy an adequate European Army, NATO will have to be our shield.
Re: European arms industry. France, Germany, Italy, Sweden and Spain are already working on a number of next generation projects such as
tanks and
unmanned attack aircraft through partnerships. Our reliance on American hardware is currently small and becomes smaller each year it passes, although for some reason Poland still loves their American procurement. I blame that on the evil gnome leading the country these days.