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[QuicheFontaine]

I really want to see the voting system reformed in the UK because of how it works against minor parties, but then I really hate the idea of UKIP having so many MPs, which they would get if we used a different system.

Am I a hypocrite?

Well...yeah pretty much, I'm afraid. You can't have it both ways.

Personally, I'd say go for it. Having far-right views given due weight is the price of admission for having far-left views given due weight. It's either that or have Con / Lab punching it out for a 'centre ground' that is broadly right of centre and seemingly being increasingly drawn to the right.

 

[jimbobsmells]

Cyclops baby on board badges can be ordered through the tfl site, they are free. Babyonboard@tfl.gov.uk with name and address.

 

[PJV3]

Well...yeah pretty much, I'm afraid. You can't have it both ways.

Personally, I'd say go for it. Having far-right views given due weight is the price of admission for having far-left views given due weight. It's either that or have Con / Lab punching it out for a 'centre ground' that is broadly right of centre and seemingly being increasingly drawn to the right.

The Marginals can finally fuck off though.
They drive things more than whatever the centre ground is supposed to be.

 

[kmag]

Lynton Crosby (the Tory election strategist) predicting 300 seats for the Tories.

Patrick Wintour
patrickwintour
Lynton Crosby apparently projecting 300 seats for Tories - more than touching distance with LDs and DUP.

The number itself isn't particularly interesting, but that he's predicting a number well short of majority is a bit interesting. There seems to have been a realisation since last week from the big two that the majorities are off the table. Obviously the polling has been support this for a while now, but the parties themselves have been making more noises about it the last week, while the principle politicians still make the "fighting for a majority spiel" you'd expect them to make.

That Crosby's prediction is a comfortable number to allow a potential coalition with LD's and support from the DUP and UKIP (still don't see how that flies with the Lib Dem membership by the way) seems to be more to gee up the troops than anything else. Lynton got it horribly wrong in 2005, and even when Boris got re-elected his prediction really undersold the Labour vote.

 

[Tak3n]

fair point just mentioned


5 years ago immigration was never mentioned and if you did you were famously called a 'bigot'

Now Ed Miliband is crafting in stone that he is willing to do something about it...

so even though UKIP are going to be grossly under represented, in turn they are also forcing the parties to deal with the issues raised

 

[MrChom]

I worried. My voting card hasn't shown up via post yet... is that normal?

If you know where your local polling station is you can vote without the card anyway.

 

[PJV3]

Lynton Crosby (the Tory election strategist) predicting 300 seats for the Tories.

Are we filing this with his swing-back prediction?
Or is it a likely outcome.

 

[anonymous_abc]

The Guardian has some fine interactive visualisations of the election and polls.

 

[Vanguard]

I still don't know who to vote for, I did that vote for policies thing back in 2010 (when I was first able to vote) and got equal percentage on all parties that I voted policies on, was neither right or left and was apparently a centrist... same again has happened this year, although give or take ~5% with a few parties, the results are still in the same area.

I've came to the conclusion I am awkward.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

I love this population-adjusted map of the UK on the Guardian's interactive poll checker:

Looks like the UK has had too much cake!

 

[Tak3n]

Are we filing this with his swing-back prediction?
Or is it a likely outcome.

Whilst it is possible, I would be amazed, the explosion in young people voting this turn and they principally wont vote tory, means 300 is not realistically possible

 

[kmag]

TNS GB poll:
LAB 32% (-1),
CON 33% (-1),
LIB DEM 8% (+1),
UKIP 14% (-1),
GREEN 6% (+1),
OTHER 6% (+1)

Everything seems weirdly low apart from UKIP. Although the field work was done 30 Apr – 04 May which seems a bit far out to really be a final poll.

 

[MrChom]

fair point just mentioned


5 years ago immigration was never mentioned and if you did you were famously called a 'bigot'

Now Ed Miliband is crafting in stone that he is willing to do something about it...

so even though UKIP are going to be grossly under represented, in turn they are also forcing the parties to deal with the issues raised

And every time they go to "deal with it" I roll my eyes and hope for someone to walk on stage, slap them with a copy of the governmental report stating migrants have a HUGE net economic benefit to the nation, and then walk off again.

UKIP are forcing them to deal with an issue that could be eliminated by education, and proper slapdowns of media giving out disinformation about the Romanian hordes charging through the channel tunnel on black horses that breathe fire.

Migrants have overall improved our economy, they create businesses, they pay taxes, they fund our benefits systems, they keep our NHS ticking over. The whole debate is dominated by pith helmet wearing Imperialism talking about Johnny Foreigner...

 

[PJV3]

Whilst it is possible, I would be amazed, the explosion in young people voting this turn and they principally wont vote tory, means 300 is not realistically possible

I'm just hoping the leftish vote actually bothers to turn out.
I have a bad feeling about it.

 

[Tak3n]

The Guardian has some fine interactive visualisations of the election and polls.

if this comes true, that has another election written all over it

 

[anonymous_abc]

I really want to see the voting system reformed in the UK because of how it works against minor parties, but then I really hate the idea of UKIP having so many MPs, which they would get if we used a different system.

Am I a hypocrite?

Thing is the system doesn't work against minor parties, it works against vast swathes of the population!
It's not about parties it should be about the electorate!

if this comes true, that has another election written all over it

I often wonder what anyone expects that to change.
"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again but expecting different results"

 

[kmag]

if this comes true, that has another election written all over it

Perhaps but as the real target is 323 for a queens speech/confidence vote, then 322 afterwards (as the speaker votes for the status quo/government in a tie) then Labour + SNP + Green + Lady Harmon + Plaid + SDLP + Galloway would probably have a 'majority' of about 10 which is workable. I know that 'coalition' seems fragile but there's enough share ground to get through a decent amount of legislation over a year or so.

It'd collapse at some point, but none of those parties can afford another election in the near future. The SNP could I suppose but they've got another election to fight in 2016.

 

[PJV3]

Election-wipe is on tonight, it should be good.

 

[Tak3n]

Perhaps but as the real target is 323 for a queens speech/confidence vote, then 322 afterwards (as the speaker votes for the status quo/government in a tie) then Labour + SNP + Green + Lady Harmon + Plaid + SDLP + Galloway would probably have a 'majority' of about 10 which is workable. I know that 'coalition' seems fragile but there's enough share ground to get through a decent amount of legislation over a year or so.

It'd collapse at some point, but none of those parties can afford another election in the near future. The SNP could I suppose but they've got another election to fight in 2016.

but SNP has said they will vote down any labour government budget that contained cuts, and as Labour has promised to balance the books that seems a non workable arrangement

 

[Blue Lou]

Election-wipe is on tonight, it should be good.

Al Campbell (Barry Shitpeas) has just recommended this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SK-hRDHe4lU

 

[travisbickle]

5 years of policies enacted by blind prejudice with punitive measures that hit the weakest and most vulnerable in society, and an inability to meet your own expectations even after reducing those expectations two or three times ... I can see why people want to vote them in again, with a side ordering of homophobia and racism the Tories are exceptionally British.

 

[kmag]

but SNP has said they will vote down any labour government budget that contained cuts, and as Labour has promised to balance the books that seems a non workable arrangement

Labour aren't actually required to make cuts to meet their spending targets thanks to the big sliding window that is their target. That's not my opinion that's what the IFS say. Labour have said they'd "make some tough decisions" which basically amount to means tests Winter fuel allowance and freezing some benefits.

Push comes to shove the SNP won't vote down a Labour budget. They'll attempt to offer amendments. This blog from Manchester University sums up their options which are rather limited.

http://blog.policy.manchester.ac.uk/posts/2015/04/could-the-snp-block-a-labour-budget-no/

 

[anonymous_abc]

but SNP has said they will vote down any labour government budget that contained cuts, and as Labour has promised to balance the books that seems a non workable arrangement

Once you are used to governments being formed through coalitions you will realise there are no red lines. It's a matter of give and take till everyone at the table is happy to stand infront of their supporters and say we get this and that and had to sadly offer up something else in return. Or not then that coalition just doesn't happen and people move on to the next.

 

[FortuneFaded]

Looks like the UK has had too much cake!

Looks more like a dog scratching its arse on the Channel.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Once you are used to governments being formed through coalitions you will realise there are no red lines. It's a matter of give and take till everyone at the table is happy to stand infront of their supporters and say we get this and that and had to sadly offer up something else in return. Or not then that coalition just doesn't happen and people move on to the next.

I don't think we've got the hang of this yet. That's why we get things like Ed standing up at Question Time saying "I won't negotiate bits of my manifesto away / No deals with the SNP / I'm after a majority". Anything else and he'd be accused by the press of being weak or lacking conviction.

Edit:

Looks more like a dog scratching its arse on the Channel.

A 'bottom shuffle' on France? I think I can see it...

 

[nib95]

5 years of policies enacted by blind prejudice with punitive measures that hit the weakest and most vulnerable in society, and an inability to meet your own expectations even after reducing those expectations two or three times ... I can see why people want to vote them in again, with a side ordering of homophobia and racism the Tories are exceptionally British.

Lol. It is weird when you put it like that. It's especially unfortunate for Labour that they were in power when the global financial collapse occurred, else I don't think it'd be so split right now.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Cyclops baby on board badges can be ordered through the tfl site, they are free. Babyonboard@tfl.gov.uk with name and address.

Cheers, I'll get 5.

And every time they go to "deal with it" I roll my eyes and hope for someone to walk on stage, slap them with a copy of the governmental report stating migrants have a HUGE net economic benefit to the nation, and then walk off again.

UKIP are forcing them to deal with an issue that could be eliminated by education, and proper slapdowns of media giving out disinformation about the Romanian hordes charging through the channel tunnel on black horses that breathe fire.

Migrants have overall improved our economy, they create businesses, they pay taxes, they fund our benefits systems, they keep our NHS ticking over. The whole debate is dominated by pith helmet wearing Imperialism talking about Johnny Foreigner...

I think part of what makes people annoyed is this sort of dismissive attitude to their problems - that if only they were more educated, then they wouldn't care that in their school kid's classroom 3/4s of the pupils don't speak English as a first language, or that their occupation has seen its value plumit as a result of massively increased competition or that their local infrastructure is far busier with little extra investment. Now I'm all for immigration - I acknowledge all the economic benefits and think we're far better off as a country as a result. But immigration is one of those things where the benefits are country-wide where as the draw backs are far more localised - having access to much cheaper plumbers and kitchen-fitters is great for everyone across the country who needs a plumber or a kitchen fitted, but it's not good for British plumbers or kitchen fitters. Likewise, the suppression of wages mean goods can be delivered cheaper which benefits basically all consumers - but not those struggling on low wages as a result. If Town A has a lot of immigrants and Town B doesn't, all the benefits that immigration brings, economically and culturally, can be equally enjoyed in both towns, but only Town A really sees the localised drawbacks like busier roads, higher rents. So whilst immigration is, in my view, on balance a positive thing, you can't expect everyone to simply have their problems "educated" away.

 

[CCS]

Bit late but predictions:

Con 278
Lab 272
SNP 52
Lib 24
UKIP 2
Green 1
Other 21

 

[Tak3n]

what I always find totally surreal is that tomorrow you wont even know a election is ongoing lol

I don't really get the evidence to suggest on the day peoples opinion can be changed

 

[anonymous_abc]

Al Campbell (Barry Shitpeas) has just recommended this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SK-hRDHe4lU

nice. x)

 

[RedShift]

Anyone else mordibly looking forward to what the Sun shits out onto its front page tomorrow?

Their 2010 Election Day version of the Obama 'hope' poster with Cam's face was a particular low in human culture for me.

 

[Tak3n]

so 5 years ago David Cameron said 'sack me' if I don't get immigration down to under 100,000

He did not...

Nigel Farage has said he will stand down as UKIP leader if he does not win Thanet South...

What do we think? will he or wont he resign if he loses

 

[CCS]

Anyone else mordibly looking forward to what the Sun shits out onto its front page tomorrow?

Their 2010 Election Day version of the Obama 'hope' poster with Cam's face was a particular low in human culture for me.

I was going to say that it can't possibly be worse than some of the shit they've put put already, but then I remembered that it's the Sun we're talking about.

 

[hepburn3d]

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 5th May

Con 34%, Lab 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%; APP -9


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/06/cons-and-labour-tied/

 

[anonymous_abc]

Nigel Farage has said he will stand down as UKIP leader if he does not win Thanet South...

What do we think? will he or wont he resign if he loses

We can hope...

Loved the part on dead ringers where Nigel interviews himself to show that UKIP is not a one man show. xD

 

[MrChom]

Cheers, I'll get 5.



I think part of what makes people annoyed is this sort of dismissive attitude to their problems - that if only they were more educated, then they wouldn't care that in their school kid's classroom 3/4s of the pupils don't speak English as a first language, or that their occupation has seen its value plumit as a result of massively increased competition or that their local infrastructure is far busier with little extra investment. Now I'm all for immigration - I acknowledge all the economic benefits and think we're far better off as a country as a result. But immigration is one of those things where the benefits are country-wide where as the draw backs are far more localised - having access to much cheaper plumbers and kitchen-fitters is great for everyone across the country who needs a plumber or a kitchen fitted, but it's not good for British plumbers or kitchen fitters. Likewise, the suppression of wages mean goods can be delivered cheaper which benefits basically all consumers - but not those struggling on low wages as a result. If Town A has a lot of immigrants and Town B doesn't, all the benefits that immigration brings, economically and culturally, can be equally enjoyed in both towns, but only Town A really sees the localised drawbacks like busier roads, higher rents. So whilst immigration is, in my view, on balance a positive thing, you can't expect everyone to simply have their problems "educated" away.

This is precisely what government is for, though! Looks like the housing supply is low...build more. Poor infrastructure? Get it fixed. Issues in schools, help them deal with it.

You don't deal with problems like this by sweeping it up into a cupboard and sticking a chair under then handle on the door and praying it goes away. The entire reason that these immigrants are handing over tax is to create these improvements! If you, as a government, have an issue with immigration it is because you, as a government, are failing to pay attention to what your job exists to do.

If the Minister for transport suggested we solve traffic problems by banning all new car sales, and saying you couldn't use a motorway until your car was 2 years old we'd laugh at them so hard the commons would probably crumble. On the other hand if they suggested road improvement programmes, and better access to public transport they'd be lauded.

 

[JonathanEx]

Nigel Farage has said he will stand down as UKIP leader if he does not win Thanet South...

What do we think? will he or wont he resign if he loses

I think he'll JUST get in. I hope not, but think that's what'll happen.

But if he doesn't... he's said it, so he'll have to. The question will be unavoidable. He could still be a vocal spokesperson for the party, EU parliament, but with one of their sitting MPs as leader.

 

[Hellers]

Anyone else mordibly looking forward to what the Sun shits out onto its front page tomorrow?

Their 2010 Election Day version of the Obama 'hope' poster with Cam's face was a particular low in human culture for me.

It'll have to go some to beat Baby Dave.

 

[Mr. Luchador]

I've still got no real idea who I'm voting for other than who I'm NOT voting for. So, I'm watching some news channels, and they're not really helpful right now either. UK Politics is terrible - it never seems to be we're the best party, it always seems to be the parties saying how bad the other parties are.

How does that help anyone.

 

[Goodlife]

I've still got no real idea who I'm voting for other than who I'm NOT voting for. So, I'm watching some news channels, and they're not really helpful right now either. UK Politics is terrible - it never seems to be we're the best party, it always seems to be the parties saying how bad the other parties are.

How does that help anyone.

We could help?

What are your main concerns?
What's most important to you?

And who have you ruled out?

 

[PJV3]

It'll have to go some to beat Baby Dave.

If Ed becomes PM and he carries out his media reforms, then expect the barrel to be scraped like never before. I'm betting on Miliband scat pictures.

 

[Blue Lou]

https://twitter.com/kibooki/status/595885478840262656

 

[jimbobsmells]

If Ed becomes PM and he carries out his media reforms, then expect the barrel to be scraped like never before. I'm betting on Miliband scat pictures.

That Miliband pictures thread will be out of control.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

I've still got no real idea who I'm voting for other than who I'm NOT voting for. So, I'm watching some news channels, and they're not really helpful right now either. UK Politics is terrible - it never seems to be we're the best party, it always seems to be the parties saying how bad the other parties are.

How does that help anyone.

Well, it helps the people trying to get elected. And at the end of the day, isn't that what's really important?

 

[CharmingCharlie]

Seems John Major has stuck his oar in to things (not that it is being widely reported mind you). Apparently he has been very critical of David Cameron at some £150 a head dinner :-

How can it be that in a nation that is the fifth richest nation in the world, that in the United Kingdom we have four of the poorest areas in Europe?

By Europe I include Eastern Europe in that question.

Camerons reponse was "nope bro we have like totally lifted people out of poverty despite the evidence that poverty and inequality has massively increased since I came to power. Oh yeah and deficit, deficit, deficit and Ed Milliband smells of poo".

You can hear Major's speech here :-

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-david-cameron-savaged-former-5642377

 

[Mr. Luchador]

We could help?

What are your main concerns?
What's most important to you?

And who have you ruled out?

I'm reading over the Manifestos on the BBC website now, but I don't think there's many parties even looking at what I'd be interested in.

- Increased funding for social projects such as sports in 'deprived areas', healthy eating programs for school children and their parents, etc
- A pledge to protect current funding for Council Sports Facilities (Gyms, Sports Halls, Youth Clubs, etc) offering after school activities and events.
- Funding for charities that provide services (such as PE, Healthy Lifestyles, etc) to schools and groups
- A pledge to look into and pressure the Premier League to subsidies ticket prices so the 'average fan' can return and watch football at the stadiums
- A pledge to protect net neutrality and to stop the policing of the internet started by David Cameron
- Tax Breaks for UK Game Developers
- Uni Fees Reduced (even though I've graduated)
- A pledge to focus interests of the country outside of London (I have no real basis for this one other than feeling like all investment is centered around the South - Yes I'm a Northern Monkey!)

Well, it helps the people trying to get elected. And at the end of the day, isn't that what's really important?

Not really, I shouldn't be voting for the person who's 'scared' me the most into voting for them. I should be voting for the person/party that is going to look after me and the country. It should be someone you trust and has your best interests in mind. Unless this was a joke comment that has went right over my head haha

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Tomorrow or late this evening, we should ask a mod to change the title from 'Can't organise an election in a brewery' to 'GO AND VOTE'.

 

[CCS]

I'm reading over the Manifestos on the BBC website now, but I don't think there's many parties even looking at what I'd be interested in.

- Increased funding for social projects such as sports in 'deprived areas', healthy eating programs for school children and their parents, etc
- A pledge to protect current funding for Council Sports Facilities (Gyms, Sports Halls, Youth Clubs, etc) offering after school activities and events.
- Funding for charities that provide services (such as PE, Healthy Lifestyles, etc) to schools and groups
- A pledge to look into and pressure the Premier League to subsidies ticket prices so the 'average fan' can return and watch football at the stadiums
- A pledge to protect net neutrality and to stop the policing of the internet started by David Cameron
- Tax Breaks for UK Game Developers
- Uni Fees Reduced (even though I've graduated)
- A pledge to focus interests of the country outside of London (I have no real basis for this one other than feeling like all investment is centered around the South - Yes I'm a Northern Monkey!)



Not really, I shouldn't be voting for the person who's 'scared' me the most into voting for them. I should be voting for the person/party that is going to look after me and the country. It should be someone you trust and has your best interests in mind. Unless this was a joke comment that has went right over my head haha

While you're right about no one party looking at that, I'd say that either Labour or Green is closest to what you want.

Certainly not the Tories.

 

[jimbobsmells]

From the BBC

Pressed on John Major's remarks reported in the Mirror newspaper, David Cameron says the former Tory PM is "absolutely right" to make those points.

He says the government's education reforms are improving school performances and helping more people from poorer backgrounds to go to university.

"Am I satisfied with what we have today? No I'm not, that's why I want another five years," Mr Cameron says.

 

[Mr. Luchador]

While you're right about no one party looking at that, I'd say that either Labour or Green is closest to what you want.

Yeah, I was thinking Green Party but feel like it's a 'wasted vote' which doesn't help at all if everyone is thinking that. I used to vote Labour, but switched to Lib Dem last time (and felt betrayed that they sided with Cons). I'm no real political expert, so maybe I didn't understand the Lib Dem decision entirely.