QuicheFontaine
Member
"We don't do cocktails here mate"
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May 7th | UK General Election 2015 OT - Please go vote!
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"We don't do cocktails here mate"
That's what they said when I asked for chips, cheese and gravy. #thenorthremembers
Randomizer
Member
Wow just did that survey and with over 678k surveys taken the Conservative polices are the least popular in England, yet they are on track to get the most seats. My results were 80% green 20% LibDem for those interested, not English though so pointless.
anonymous_abc
Member
Welcome to the world of ill informed voters.
Admittedly there is a certain degree of sample bias here.
CyclopsRock
Member
Actually in the other bar in the Hilton, Galvins at Windows on the top floor (nice view tbh) the Tonic costs £4.50. It is Fever Tree, though, and you get to keep the bottle... which is nice. You can choose your gin natch, but I think the cheapest you'll get one in there for is about £12. I usually get Scotch there because it's comparatively cheap! 50cl of Johnny Walker Black for a mere £11.50.
Three months? More like at least every day since he entered politics in 1994.
The reasons behind his success are complicated and I cannot go into details without derailing the thread, let's just say that being a media magnate helped him a great deal, but there's more than that.
Not quite, the "winning" party gets a majority only if it wins more than 40% of the votes, otherwise there's a runoff between the two most voted parties and then the winner gets a majority.
Remaining seats are awarded on a proportional basis.
EIDT: Funnily enough, Farage's rhetoric against "career politicians" who have never got a "real" job is also largely employed by Berlusconi.
I know someone that does this specifically at places that charge too much. Each to their own I guess.
Randomizer
Member
Due to age I assume? Yeah I presumed that myself.
It's still an interesting method for seeing where your stand by keeping the parties anonymous till the end.
I want to say that a "younger" demographic will most likely find that online poll. Actually maybe not younger, maybe a more modern demographic.
Conservatives mostly represent those who are wealthier or better off, so it's no surprise they enjoy disproportionate success. As Ed himself said, the Tories use large sums of money and marketing to gain influence and get out the message, and whilst Labour and the other parties do exactly the same, they also rely on far more grass roots measures than the Tories do.
Then again, as mentioned above, the demographics of those who did the survey are likely a better fit to the more leftist parties.
I used to do it frequently when I was young when visiting places that were very expensive. Not so much now, apart from the cinema. The pubs I drink in here it's about £3- £3.50 for a double decent rum and coke. Going south just makes me appreciate the prices here.
CyclopsRock
Member
Eh, it's more Mad Men than American Pie, ya know? If you're not ordering it from the sexy eastern European waitresses and slapping down your card without looking at the receipt whilst chomping on the generously free chilli popcorn, you're not really getting the "experience" - sneak in a hipflask and you're just a guy drinking booze on a sofa.
Anyway, this is the night afterthe election so I can just chill, drinking fruity cocktails whilst madly checking twitter for the latest goss.
JonathanEx
Member
I'm thinking a post-work nap on Thursday, up at 9pm for the Channel 4 show, have BBC News on a second TV screen, maybe 2/3am, crash on the sofa, alarm at 6am, see the big results, go to work at 9, drink too much tea.
for anyone who likes a good long read with analysis
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9377
for the rest of us I will post the conclusion only
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9377
for the rest of us I will post the conclusion only
Haha! Touché and fair point. It'll be a while before anything like that arrives here. We've only just got contact-less payment.
I think during the election fall-out, while a government is trying to form, it'll be a horrific mess of media. About 3 weeks from now it might be great to look back on and be quite interesting how everything went. Hard to find it interesting right now when you know your next 5 years are so effected by it.
Well at least there's 2200 people out there who I know I agree with
Well at least there's 2200 people out there who I know I agree with
dapperbandit
Banned
I doubt the ending will be that bad
JonathanEx
Member
but much like lost, what is supposed to be an ending will answer zero questions
CyclopsRock
Member
Yoy wake up in Purgatory. Where you end up depends on how much you repent to IDS.
Lick his boots.
I stayed up 5 years ago for the previous election. Was a bit disappointing. It's like watching paint dry and trying to guess what colour it will be when it's dry.
I think this time the stuff to watch will be on the Friday when Cameron is being dragged out of No 10 by his feet while Ed and Nicola burn his desk. Clegg will hide, hoping they forget he's there and just let him stay. Then they'll throw him out the window to a gang of students who've been waiting 5 years for revenge!
I'm expecting a dull election. Results as we expect, a hung parliament. Then lots of secret chats behind doors with lots of speculation, lies and spin, for a few weeks. Then when the dust settles. That's when it'll get good
If I wake up and it's the same coalition ...
I think this time the stuff to watch will be on the Friday when Cameron is being dragged out of No 10 by his feet while Ed and Nicola burn his desk. Clegg will hide, hoping they forget he's there and just let him stay. Then they'll throw him out the window to a gang of students who've been waiting 5 years for revenge!
I'm expecting a dull election. Results as we expect, a hung parliament. Then lots of secret chats behind doors with lots of speculation, lies and spin, for a few weeks. Then when the dust settles. That's when it'll get good
If I wake up and it's the same coalition ...
Masquerader
Member
Yeah. Regardless of whether or not it's a good outcome, it would be the most fun outcome.
I think the exit poll(s) will be of interest on Thursday night, just to see if they confirm the kind of data we've been seeing recently.
If they do, you may as well go to bed as nothing is going to happen for a while.
Probably Monday before we get any kind of an idea of what might happen
If they do, you may as well go to bed as nothing is going to happen for a while.
Probably Monday before we get any kind of an idea of what might happen
I stayed up 5 years ago for the previous election. Was a bit disappointing. It's like watching paint dry and trying to guess what colour it will be when it's dry.
I think this time the stuff to watch will be on the Friday when Cameron is being dragged out of No 10 by his feet while Ed and Nicola burn his desk. Clegg will hide, hoping they forget he's there and just let him stay. Then they'll throw him out the window to a gang of students who've been waiting 5 years for revenge!
I'm expecting a dull election. Results as we expect, a hung parliament. Then lots of secret chats behind doors with lots of speculation, lies and spin, for a few weeks. Then when the dust settles. That's when it'll get good
If I wake up and it's the same coalition ...
almost everyone agrees nothing will change for a while at least, part of me thinks if the numbers come in as the polls state, David Cameron should do the honourable thing, but I think the tory party will want/make him play politics until the last, and they will claim SNP are now in charge, or something daft like that
JonathanEx
Member
I think I read that the Tories current plan is just to stay on. They have the press on side, so won't be called squatters, and just wait for the SNP to try and topple them - at which point they can go "See they're so terrible, bringing down our government!!!!"
that makes 2 of us who think that..... the ethos of if we are going down this do maximum damage to Labour on the way
QuicheFontaine
Member
Well he said he won't do a 3rd stretch. Maybe he'll do a Gordon Brown and just vanish into the ether.
That sentence makes me so annoyed on so many levels, besides the fact it's pretty much true.
I stayed up 5 years ago for the previous election. Was a bit disappointing. It's like watching paint dry and trying to guess what colour it will be when it's dry.
I think this time the stuff to watch will be on the Friday when Cameron is being dragged out of No 10 by his feet while Ed and Nicola burn his desk. Clegg will hide, hoping they forget he's there and just let him stay. Then they'll throw him out the window to a gang of students who've been waiting 5 years for revenge!
I'm expecting a dull election. Results as we expect, a hung parliament. Then lots of secret chats behind doors with lots of speculation, lies and spin, for a few weeks. Then when the dust settles. That's when it'll get good
If I wake up and it's the same coalition ...
I'm really hoping for, inside 8 weeks, a joint Cameron/Clegg resignation from being party leader, and a demotion to the back benches for Osbourne (Preferably also for Balls but we know that won't happen).
Cameron will have to go because he won't be able to form a stable majority (No one will, but Labour has a FAR better shot at the Queen's Speech), Clegg will have to go because he'll have sacrificed his own party for little return.
JonathanEx
Member
Until a majority parliament goes "Fuck it, that law was a bit stupid anyway".
10!? Fuck me, that's close.
That read like a poem to me. If all that happens it'll have been worth all the front page headlines for the last few weeks.
I have an exam..
Off-topic, but my first avatar quote! I'm so proud :')
On-topic, this is my first time voting, so I'm a little more invested than usual. I usually stay up to 2-3am anyway, might as well try and go the whole hog and pull an all-nighter.
Psychotext
Member
Wow.
High-five fellow first time voter!
Anthony Wells is a very clever man and generally a fantastic reader of the polls, he won't be far wrong.
To one decimal place, it's Con 34.7% vs Lab 34.3%. We're in absolute dead heat territory and make no mistake, at this point it's all about getting out your vote for both parties.
Whoever has the better ground game has a good chance of taking the most votes (which is usually meaningless, but might make the Tory press crowing about legitimacy a little louder or quieter).
There's more of a difference in the unweighted base, but that's due to a slightly more Tory skewing sample (nothing untoward in that, that's why they using the weighting)
If you look at the English swing to Labour n the poll it's in pretty massive. Remember Labours vote in Scotland has tanked from 2010, arguably that's costing them about 0.5-1% in national polling.
Con 37
Lab 35
UKIP 12
LD 8
That's a pretty massive swing to Labour who got about 28.1% of English votes in 2010 compared to the Tories 39.5%. About 4.5% which in theory puts between 50-70 Tory seats in play for Labour. Of course it's just polling and we'll find out on Friday how accurate it's been.
I know, if this had come out 6 weeks ago thing would be different I expect....
I always wanted Vince Cable to be the Lib Dems leader, he always reminds me of someone who is honest and does not bend
CyclopsRock
Member
It's pretty hard to justify saying that Labour didn't run up a significant deficit before the economic crash, no? I mean, there was a decade of growth and we didn't have a surplus after 2002 or so. If the idea is that debt is sustainable as long as the economy continues to grow, it seems slightly perverse that even when the economy was booming the deficit as a percentage of GDP kept rising. Unless they were planning an exercise in mass inflation, surely down that road would always lead to a gradually increasing debt?
That's 11 you fucking liar.
There's more of a difference in the unweighted base, but that's due to a slightly more Tory skewing sample (nothing untoward in that, that's why they using the weighting)
That's 11 you fucking liar.
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