Excellent article here that's sure to piss you off once Cameron is back in: http://anotherangryvoice.blogspot.com/2015/05/letter-potential-tory-voters.html
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May 7th | UK General Election 2015 OT - Please go vote!
- Thread starter Volotaire
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How much could they have "saved" though?
I'm no expert, but from looking at the graphs, a couple of years running a surplus and banking the extra money wouldn't have really made a dent in the borrowing figures following the crash.
Also, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR_hfQU-4r0
CyclopsRock
Member
Yeah, but that wasn't what Cable was arguing. He said "I think this very simple view that the Conservatives perpetuate that the last government went in to the banking crisis with a very large deficit simply was not true." What you're saying is that the level of deficit wouldn't have made a difference (though IMO it would) but Cable's point is that they objectively weren't. My question is that if that's his position, even if there'd never been a crash we would have been in trouble at some point because our deficit was out-pacing our growth and tax income. The idea behind deficit spending is that it's OK because when you have low interest rates and/or print money, growth rates and inflation will cancel out the debt and allow you to keep spending. But our deficit was growing, which suggests this wasn't happening, and this was in a decade of pretty spectacular growth. So I think Cable's wrong. No?
Great read. Shared that with my very small bubble of friends. Hope more people read it.
Given Clegg's own statements in the past that rather cuts him off at the knees too, frankly.
I'ma need me some popcorn.
Been a long day. wrestling with my current workplaces labyrinth travel booking policy. And marvelling how little £125 a night goes when looking for accommodation in Central London. Finally found a nice managed apartment (bedroom and kitchen/diner) in Kensington for £116.25 a night for the two weeks I need on their travel system right next to where I need to be (removes the need for the tube in the morning it'd be a 20 minute walk according to google which is fine) and their system won't let me book without Director sign off even though it's under budget. I'm half tempted to phone up the apartments and get them to raise the price to exactly £125 for those dates.
If I end up in an Ibis closet for two weeks I'm out of here.
Good read.
Hi CyclopsRock, that's a great question....
(Need to pop out for a bit, will give my opinion later)
Cable is speaking through a prism of supporting MORE spending at the time, while Cameron and Osborne were happily hugging hoodies and promising to match Labour spending. Until the financial crisis, Labours deficit as proportion of GDP was bang average for post war governments (I think it was on average lower than Thatchers by that measure). Of course the GDP numbers were largely built on a tower of debt (corporate, personal and government) but then frankly so are today's GDP figures.
That's not to absolve Labour from any blame, they didn't use the political capital they had wisely to attempt to reform and improve the economy, they fucked up bank and financial regulation. And I'm not actually sure Osborne wouldn't have said he'd match spending but then actually ran a tighter ship when he got in.
CyclopsRock
Member
Yeah, well Cable looks like what Olaf would look like if little Anna and Elsa had spent their youth playing with male cabbage patch kid dolls instead of snowmen and Elsa accidentally brought one to life, who then joined the Lib Dems.
It's going to be drier, brighter, warmer and less windy than the last few days.
20C in London, down to about 10C in Scotland, just about as nice a day as you could expect from this time of year.
Clear
CliffyB's Cock Holster
I honestly suspect that the Tories will end up with enough seats for a slim majority. I really don't see Labour offering much to the sort of older voter that tends to be invisible on advance polls.
Much like the Scottish Independence vote, when push comes to shove grey voters will opt for the "tried and tested" choice.
Spuck-uk
Banned
I think that's likely, and then they'll completely fail to form a government, because there's no way in hell the SNP will prop them up.
Psychotext
Member
They talked about that on Daily Politics. FTPA requires 2/3 Commons majority to break it.
A lot of opinion polls now factor in such things. They include all sorts of weightings and potentials.
PJV3
Member
Hmmm, maybe they shouldn't be allowed to vote over 60, you've had your turn, you bitter old crone.
My theory on the SI vote was more that the older generation were voting to protect their pensions. I'd argue the same thing will happen here. If you've been in a hospital or a GP in the last 5 years you can't hide from the squeeze on it. The older generation being more dependent on it will want to protect that. #justAtheory
Thornton Reed
Member
this is dramatic stuff
uncleniccius
Member
This is going to be an interesting twenty four hours, and honestly the run up to this election has made me change my view on a lot of people.
Regardless of your political view I will respect you, but some of the things supporters of parties have said about other parties / their supporters is appalling.
At the end of the day, some legislation will change, some will stay the same and little change will actually happen. Who's in power will obviously change things, but unless it were to swing to the far left or right the actual difference would be negligible.
So vote for who you want, and if people paint you with a brush because of it then fuck them.
PS, my birthday means I'm three months short of voting, but I'm in a safe tory seat anyway.
Regardless of your political view I will respect you, but some of the things supporters of parties have said about other parties / their supporters is appalling.
At the end of the day, some legislation will change, some will stay the same and little change will actually happen. Who's in power will obviously change things, but unless it were to swing to the far left or right the actual difference would be negligible.
So vote for who you want, and if people paint you with a brush because of it then fuck them.
PS, my birthday means I'm three months short of voting, but I'm in a safe tory seat anyway.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
FTPA is just the most pointless thing ever. Parliaments can't bind future Parliaments, so as long as you have enough votes to repeal it, you can have an election. The Act only existed as an act of showmanship
uncleniccius
Member
The alternative is IMO, worse, as you can never have anything but a coalition in reality, and representation of local areas becomes more tricky.
There's no perfect political system sadly.
I don't think it will change, it is not on any manifesto (apart from the greens) but anyone with any clout wont change it, they just wont rule it out as that would cost them votes..
it will take a leader of a real progressive nature to be willing to sacrifice a load of his MP's, and if this government turns into a clusterfuck they will argue that PR would be even worse
StealthGoblin
Banned
I think we should give true absolute democracy a go.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Greens going HAM in Bristol. Another flyer in my letterbox, I must have had about ten different ones by now. You really get a sense that they sniff a win here, but it's still a long shot.
Bit ironic if they do, what with all the paper and everything.
I have always wondered guys, what happens to those who lose, I read that if anyone important loses (Danny ALexander etc) then they are giving a tax payer funded job to do for the next parliament
but what happens to a 'normal candidate' my local Labour rep is a nice local women who has been out and about all over the place, I am in a very safe tory seat so she as no chance
does she get paid? does she just go back to her previous life for another 5 years etc?
but what happens to a 'normal candidate' my local Labour rep is a nice local women who has been out and about all over the place, I am in a very safe tory seat so she as no chance
does she get paid? does she just go back to her previous life for another 5 years etc?
Final poll* from ICM, the gold standard of pollsters**, and who have been showing a Tory lead since the start of the year:
CON (35%) LAB (35%) LD (9%) UKIP (13%) GRN (3%)
Could there be a late squeeze on the Green vote? If the Greens get squeezed but UKIP don't, that's very handy for Labour.
There is no chance of either party getting within 30 seats of a majority.
*Actually a preliminary sample before their final, final poll tomorrow morning, kinda weird.
**We'll see if they remain such after the election.
CON (35%) LAB (35%) LD (9%) UKIP (13%) GRN (3%)
Could there be a late squeeze on the Green vote? If the Greens get squeezed but UKIP don't, that's very handy for Labour.
There is no chance of either party getting within 30 seats of a majority.
*Actually a preliminary sample before their final, final poll tomorrow morning, kinda weird.
**We'll see if they remain such after the election.
Clear
CliffyB's Cock Holster
Heh, its more likely older voters have had their hopes squashed by successive Labour governments failing to deliver on their promises and/or are of the opinion that they always leave the economy in a worse state by the time they leave power.
Its funny to me, so much talk still persists of the dark days of Thatcher's Britain, yet you tend to hear a lot less of the bankrupt and industrial-action paralyzed Britain of the 70's... Memories of how bad it got in that decade (and reaching its nadir under the Callaghan government) are long and bitter.
Not to say that the Tories are synonymous with sweetness and light... but the truth is that Labour has traditionally presented itself as the party that's "here to save us" from the Tory yoke, and that just rings false these days.
They basically turned into something barely distinguishable from the Tories under Blair and after 13 consecutive years in power, the D-Ream was over... things really didn't get better at all! The fall-out from the Scottish Referendum is just icing on the cake.
Personally I'm abstaining this time because I think its a shit-show either way, and I'm not going to spoil my ballot/vote for a group with zero chance of attaining power to produce the same result democratically speaking.
Coalitions aren't necessarily a bad thing. Most progressive nations tend to have multi-party systems, it's mainly just UK and areas that the 'British Empire' had influence over that have 2 party systems, most new democracies go for multi-party systems (I suppose you could argue that's needed more because of the requirement of plurality in new democracies).
There isn't a perfect system, that's obvious, but there are still options for having PR as well as having MPs. You can go for a mixed member system, have party lists etc... elect your MP's but also directly elect the government.
The local MP system is outdated and meaningless at the moment. Nobody really votes for their MP, they vote for the government. If you're a Tory in a Labour safe-seat, you can go your whole life effectively with no say in the government, and without a local MP that you would care about representing you, or speaking to.
Change it to a party-list PR system, everybody can directly have a say in the government, and at the same time, most people will be able to get an MP for their area who is relevant to them.
You think Tories are going to get 320+?
The polls in Scotland reflected the results in the end pretty much.
The week or 2 leading up to it there was a bump for the yes campaign, but it didn't last.
Nobody was surprised by the vote in the end.
Get what you're saying now.
Honestly, I don't know the answer, we have always seemed to borrow more money than we pay back, but never seems to be a problem.
Probably something about inflation or something I don't know about?
If we look at that, we've only had a couple of periods of surplus in the last 40 years or so and they weren't partially big, but we've managed to pay down debt?
I dunno...
Well that one is a shocker. If this holds true for the next poll then things could be very interesting indeed. Phone polls like ICM and comres have tended to favour the tories. Juts goes to show how close things are.
Get what you're saying now.
Honestly, I don't know the answer, we have always seemed to borrow more money than we pay back, but never seems to be a problem.
Probably something about inflation or something I don't know about?
If we look at that, we've only had a couple of periods of surplus in the last 40 years or so and they weren't partially big, but we've managed to pay down debt?
I dunno...
Yeah, look at it like this.
Say the economy grows by 2% in a year, and the rate of inflation is 2%. Say we're paying an overall 3% interest on debt (simplified I know). Then in real terms, if we call the debt at the start of the year 1 unit, at the end of the year it is:
1 * 1.03 / 1.02 = 1.01 (roughly)
So debt is now 101% of what it was at the start of the year.
But GDP is 102% of what it was, so our real debt:GDP ratio has gone down.
Hence there's space to borrow some money without real debt:GDP ratio increasing.
ReplacementPelican
Member
A lot of Conservative voters are older though, aren't they? Given that this is an online survey I doubt it's representative of anyone but young people.
Wow if the yougov nowcast is true
L276(=) C276(+4) S51(-1) LD23(-1) U 1(-2) G1(=) PC3(=)
Now that would be bloody hilarious as a result.
Also that ICM poll had an english poll in it showing a 5.2 percent swing from cons to lab. Such a big swing would be very, very bad for the tories. Most have so far predicted a swing of about 3.5 percent.
L276(=) C276(+4) S51(-1) LD23(-1) U 1(-2) G1(=) PC3(=)
Now that would be bloody hilarious as a result.
Also that ICM poll had an english poll in it showing a 5.2 percent swing from cons to lab. Such a big swing would be very, very bad for the tories. Most have so far predicted a swing of about 3.5 percent.
They take that into account with their sampling groups. They spread them across all ages to get as accurate picture as they can.
Cool, thought it was probably something like that
Well explained, you should be a teacher
I am currently doing a maths degree, don't think I've really got the the patience. Thank you though
jimbobsmells
Member
That's like trying to compare our economy with a household income. It's a false equivalence.
What matters is our debt in relation to GDP.
Edit: ok I think I missed a few previous posts somehow.
I know he is not liked at all on this forum but the way the Tories are trying to go after farage is a little pathetic IMO
Debate the man by all means, but sending leaflets round from Labour asking them to vote Tory is pathectic, we have to listen to their arguments all day everyday!
Debate the man by all means, but sending leaflets round from Labour asking them to vote Tory is pathectic, we have to listen to their arguments all day everyday!
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