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[CCS]

Another thing that doesn't get mentioned very often in British politics is that the interest rate you are paying on your debt is almost as important in most cases as the deficit. As we see:

UK government debt is approximately £1.56 trillion. At the moment, the government is spending £43 billion a year on debt, which is an interest rate of 2.7% (note that these figures are pulled from Wikipedia and are ballpark. The point is to illustrate.)

Say that, because markets have faith in us, other options look risky, interest rates are low etc. the average interest rate we pay drops to 2%. Then we pay about £31 billion a year servicing the debt.

Say now instead that the rate we pay on average goes up to 4%. Then we are paying about £62 billion a year servicing the same debt.

Thus, a 2% swing in the rate of interest on debt means the government needs to find £30 billion more each year. I'm not saying that this is necessarily likely, but just pointing out that the rate of interest we pay is very important.

Incidentally, unserviceably high interest rates are one of the main reasons the Greeks are stuck in a black hole.

 

[Clear]

Does your tag apply here?

I just call things as I see them, rightly or wrongly.

Opinions are disposable things, so I see no reason for dishonesty or using some sort of strategem to disguise my feelings and intentions.

 

[CCS]

I just call things as I see them, rightly or wrongly.

Opinions are disposable things, so I see no reason for dishonesty or using some sort of strategem to disguise my feelings and intentions.

I was just joshing, perfectly legitimate view to have

 

[Plasma]

https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/595870789418749952

 

[Number45]

So it's the eve of the election and I feel far more prepared than I ever have done, but I still can't decide whether to vote and if I do which way I should go.

My conscience tells me I should be voting Labour. Almost everything I've read as a part of this thread tells me I should be voting labour, whereas virtually everywhere else says otherwise (I don't consume a lot of news at all, and I don't read print media full stop) so it's mostly what little I've caught from my social media hive-mind and a little TV news here and there. :/

The part of me that has two young daughters (9 and 13) thinks Lib Dems would be a better option. But I don't know what if any higher education reform I should realistically expect over the coming decade (given that it seems like a difficult place for any government to invest in at the moment), and besides which choosing anything other than blue/red seems like a wasted vote.

I still don't feel qualified enough to decide, and listening to what ANYONE tells me seems fraught with danger. >_<

 

[CCS]

So it's the eve of the election and I feel far more prepared than I ever have done, but I still can't decide whether to vote and if I do which way I should go.

My conscience tells me I should be voting Labour. Almost everything I've read as a part of this thread tells me I should be voting labour, whereas virtually everywhere else says otherwise (I don't consume a lot of news at all, and I don't read print media full stop) so it's mostly what little I've caught from my social media hive-mind and a little TV news here and there. :/

The part of me that has two young daughters (9 and 13) thinks Lib Dems would be a better option. But I don't know what if any higher education reform I should realistically expect over the coming decade (given that it seems like a difficult place for any government to invest in at the moment), and besides which choosing anything other than blue/red seems like a wasted vote.

I still don't feel qualified enough to decide, and listening to what ANYONE tells me seems fraught with danger. >_<

If you're thinking primarily about your daughters, you'd be best with any of the centrist or left wing parties. Whatever the benefits of the Tories, the young never do well under a Conservative government.

I'm only slightly bitter about being in the first year to pay 9 grand a year for university.

 

[Tak3n]

Unions getting nervous

MichaelLCrick



Senior union figures tell me if Tories get most seats, Miliband should at once offer anti-Tory pact to Lib Dems, & even think of deal on PR

 

[Psychotext]

Sounds like another good place for tactical voting. Find out what the polling is saying in your constituency and support whatever candidate keeps the Conservative party member out. If it's close between Labour and Lib Dems then you can obviously go with your gut on it.

 

[kitch9]

Unions getting nervous

If democracy doesn't get us what we want we should make a new democracy that will.

 

[JonathanEx]

I'll repeat what I've said before - have a quick look up your local situation. Who won last time, what were they like as an MP and their voting record? Have they just come across as a dick in the media? Who's likely to win? Is the candidate for a party you're considering alright or are they a crackpot? Sounds like a lot of questions but shouldn't be too long on Google.


---

Back in Jan, Newsnight did somethings that are interesting for our current predict the future fun. Four columnists outlining 'What if...' situations for May and beyond.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w67xZ6VkjEU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w67xZ6VkjEU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ML3Og7IjShs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9Xj3aPW1M8

 

[Par Score]

I know he is not liked at all on this forum but the way the Tories are trying to go after farage is a little pathetic IMO

Debate the man by all means, but sending leaflets round from Labour asking them to vote Tory is pathectic, we have to listen to their arguments all day everyday!

No love for Farage here either, but this Tory campaign has been dire from top to bottom.

So it's the eve of the election and I feel far more prepared than I ever have done, but I still can't decide whether to vote and if I do which way I should go.

I still don't feel qualified enough to decide, and listening to what ANYONE tells me seems fraught with danger. >_<

This election, like every other, but also quite unlike them, is going to come down to small numbers of votes in a small number of seats.

Find out what your constituency is, and who has a realistic shot of winning, just need to enter your postcode about halfway down the page.

If the 'Swing's listed are anywhere near 10% then you can stop worrying and pretty much vote with your heart, because your vote (like so many others) doesn't really matter.

If the 'Swing's are less than 5% then you've got a real chance to decide your MP, but probably only between a couple of parties. At that point, I would suggest voting for the lesser of whichever two evils are presented

EDIT: Unless you're in Scotland, then enjoy the 30% swing to SNP and ride the wave!

 

[PJV3]

Unions getting nervous

They should be If the tories get in and carry out that terrible 50%+ idea.

 

[hohoXD123]

Last night's Newsnight was pretty funny. Evan Davis was clearly very annoyed at being told the same evasive answers to simple questions in regards to the post-election situation, even at this stage where a single party majority is almost impossible.

 

[Tak3n]

They should be If the tories get in and carry out that terrible 50%+ idea.

I never understood how they could justify that, seems to me like it is hypercritical in the extreme

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Bit ironic if they do, what with all the paper and everything.

Lol, yeah bloody hypocrites!

 

[PJV3]

I never understood how they could justify that, seems to me like it is hypercritical in the extreme

If they bring back the closed shop and make voting mandatory then I'd have less of a problem. Choosing the one area of voting that makes it almost impossible to strike is bad form.

 

[danwarb]

A Tory minority government with more seats than Labour or a Tory led coalition, if it gets shot down, is not what people (will have) voted for.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

If democracy doesn't get us what we want we should make a new democracy that will.

If Labor and the Lib Dems get most of the seats and then form an alliance isn't that democracy?

 

[jimbobsmells]

Another thing that doesn't get mentioned very often in British politics is that the interest rate you are paying on your debt is almost as important in most cases as the deficit. As we see:

UK government debt is approximately £1.56 trillion. At the moment, the government is spending £43 billion a year on debt, which is an interest rate of 2.7% (note that these figures are pulled from Wikipedia and are ballpark. The point is to illustrate.)

Say that, because markets have faith in us, other options look risky, interest rates are low etc. the average interest rate we pay drops to 2%. Then we pay about £31 billion a year servicing the debt.

Say now instead that the rate we pay on average goes up to 4%. Then we are paying about £62 billion a year servicing the same debt.

Thus, a 2% swing in the rate of interest on debt means the government needs to find £30 billion more each year. I'm not saying that this is necessarily likely, but just pointing out that the rate of interest we pay is very important.

Incidentally, unserviceably high interest rates are one of the main reasons the Greeks are stuck in a black hole.

Good thing Osborne lost us our AAA rating then.

 

[Psychotext]

If the 'Swing's listed are anywhere near 10% then you can stop worrying and pretty much vote with your heart, because your vote (like so many others) doesn't really matter.

Depends on the parties involved. I wouldn't be surprised to see 10% swings away from the Lib Dems for instance.

A Tory minority government with more seats than Labour or a Tory led coalition, if it gets shot down, is not what people (will have) voted for.

People voted to elect their local MP. Beyond that it's up to politicians to decide.

 

[CCS]

I should have done an economics degree instead. You only have to sound like you know what you're talking about to do that.

 

[PJV3]

If Labor and the Lib Dems get most of the seats and then form an alliance isn't that democracy?

People are losing the plot, you vote for your MP, who can control the house is for the house to decide.

I see I have been beaten to the punch.

 

[Tak3n]

If Labor and the Lib Dems get most of the seats and then form an alliance isn't that democracy?

none of this would even be a issue if Miliband had not ruled out doing a coalition with the SNP...

it looks that that will be the majority, all that is happening now is that they have successfully pressured Miliband into publicly ruling out any deals with SNP, the polls are telling us the British people want a Labour SNP coalition, the numbers work..

Alas the Tory's game plan worked a treat and they got Miliband to denounce it

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Depends on the parties involved. I wouldn't be surprised to see 10% swings away from the Lib Dems for instance.

Yep, my local MP (and sorry for going on about it so much) is a Lib Dem who had a 20.5% majority in 2010. He's definitely going to lose tomorrow.

 

[PJV3]

Yep, my local MP (and sorry for going on about it so much) is a Lib Dem who had a 20.5% majority in 2010. He's definitely going to lose tomorrow.

It appears the Libdem's of SW London are pretty safe. I can vote Labour without worrying, fuck you Ed Davey.

 

[Stallion Dan]

Find out what your constituency is, and who has a realistic shot of winning, just need to enter your postcode about halfway down the page.

If the 'Swing's listed are anywhere near 10% then you can stop worrying and pretty much vote with your heart, because your vote (like so many others) doesn't really matter.

If the 'Swing's are less than 5% then you've got a real chance to decide your MP, but probably only between a couple of parties. At that point, I would suggest voting for the lesser of whichever two evils are presented

Oh man, 15% swing in my area.

edit: lol, UKIP truck driving by as I posted that, cannot understand a word he said except 'Green don't deserve..."

 

[Goodlife]

none of this would even be a issue if Miliband had not ruled out doing a coalition with the SNP...

it looks that that will be the majority, all that is happening now is that they have successfully pressured Miliband into publicly ruling out any deals with SNP, the polls are telling us the British people want a Labour SNP coalition, the numbers work..

Alas the Tory's game plan worked a treat and they got Miliband to denounce it

Surely the Tory plan was to get Milliband to say he'd go into coalition with the SNP, so their attacks on how the SNP are going to hold England to ransom etc etc would have stuck and turned English voters off Labour?

 

[PJV3]

Surely the Tory plan was to get Milliband to say he'd go into coalition with the SNP, so their attacks on how the SNP are going to hold England to ransom etc etc would have stuck and turned English voters off Labour?

He can pull a Clegg and after the election say working with the SNP to some degree is in the national interest.

The people who have a problem with it are going to have a problem with Miliband anyway.

 

[danwarb]

People voted to elect their local MP. Beyond that it's up to politicians to decide.

Yep. Cameron wouldn't have special legitimacy with more MPs against than for.

 

[Tak3n]

Surely the Tory plan was to get Milliband to say he'd go into coalition with the SNP, so their attacks on how the SNP are going to hold England to ransom etc etc would have stuck and turned English voters off Labour?

he should of deflected, it is not like they don't do that... he was stupid and instantly gave the tories what they wanted

 

[kmag]

Tories likely to be well up in the final YouGov poll

That prick of a hack Tom Newton Dunn is trailing it, which always means the Tories will like it.

Wow. We now have the final @YouGov poll for #GE2015; 10,000 asked. Peter Kellner’s final seat projection also revealed at 10pm on #SunNation

 

[BossDarkseid]

It appears the Libdem's of SW London are pretty safe. I can vote Labour without worrying, fuck you Ed Davey.

Ed Davey...

Isn't he Kingston & Surbiton?

My grandpa met him while he was campaigning last time....asked him what he was going to do for the older residents in his constituency and he basically legged him

If it's who I'm thinking of.

I may live in a Chris Grayling dominated constituency but...most likely going to vote Labour. I don't mind the ideas of them being in a coalition but I'd rather issues are dealt with on a issue by issue basis so I'd prefer if they somehow got a majority.

 

[Psychotext]

he should of deflected, it is not like they don't do that... he was stupid and instantly game the tories what they wanted

It's meaningless. They can't do a deal anyway because of Trident, but they can still work together without an official coalition. This was always how it was going to work out.

If people really think that they wouldn't vote together because of the "no deals or coalitions" thing, then they're massively mistaken.

 

[Moozo]

I think during the election fall-out, while a government is trying to form, it'll be a horrific mess of media. About 3 weeks from now it might be great to look back on and be quite interesting how everything went. Hard to find it interesting right now when you know your next 5 years are so effected by it.

Well at least there's 2200 people out there who I know I agree with

I'm always a bit wary of YouGov. 3 hours later this poll had swung to 51, 27, 22, with less than double the number of votes. So apparently the vast majority of everyone who voted after you took this screenshot said "Well". ???

 

[Anth1888]

17% swing needed for SNP to take Glasgow Central for Labour, can actually see them getting that. Swings will be huge from Labour to SNP. Not sure which constituencies are 'safe' from a SNP takeover.

 

[Goodlife]

he should of deflected, it is not like they don't do that... he was stupid and instantly game the tories what they wanted

No, sorry, don't agree.
I think the Tories wanted him to say yes, he'd go into coalition.

 

[ThirtyFour]

Find out what your constituency is, and who has a realistic shot of winning, just need to enter your postcode about halfway down the page.

If the 'Swing's listed are anywhere near 10% then you can stop worrying and pretty much vote with your heart, because your vote (like so many others) doesn't really matter.

If the 'Swing's are less than 5% then you've got a real chance to decide your MP, but probably only between a couple of parties. At that point, I would suggest voting for the lesser of whichever two evils are presented

Wow, surprised to see my down in the 5% swing, we've had the same guy for a long time (he was Labour then independent now back to Labour). I could handle having the Lib Dems win the constituency but I don't want the Tories.

 

[phisheep]

Hmmm, maybe they shouldn't be allowed to vote over 60, you've had your turn, you bitter old crone.

Ahem. Bit of a slippery slope if you want to start disenfranchising people you think may not agree with you. I wouldn't go quite so far as G K Chesterton ("Tradition is the democracy of the dead"), but while we are alive we deserve the chance to kick a bit too!

Its funny to me, so much talk still persists of the dark days of Thatcher's Britain, yet you tend to hear a lot less of the bankrupt and industrial-action paralyzed Britain of the 70's... Memories of how bad it got in that decade (and reaching its nadir under the Callaghan government) are long and bitter.

I remember it well. That wage freeze that meant new recruits wet behind the ears were being paid more than their 3-year experienced bosses. Public sector strikes all over the place. Rotten railways - and I mean really rotten, not what passes for rotten now. Inflation 20%+ ish annually. Deeply unpleasant.

Mind you, it wasn't just a party political thing - it isn't like things were spectacularly different under a Labour (Wilson) or a Conservative (Heath) government. The narrowness of the elections and their frequency meant the whole thing was carried along by a sort of political consensus. What the Thatcher era brought was some stability, some certainty, and some conviction that, yes, political parties and policies can make a difference. That was bought at considerable cost of course: to individuals, to communities, to industries - and there's a whole lot of rancour still hanging around. I suspect that if it were Labour rather than the Conservatives who had come up with a sufficiently single-minded leader the costs and the rancour would still have happened but they would perhaps have fallen in slightly different places.

For all the rancour, all parties have been following the Thatcher model ever since.

Those are times I really wouldn't want to see again though.

If you're thinking primarily about your daughters, you'd be best with any of the centrist or left wing parties. Whatever the benefits of the Tories, the young never do well under a Conservative government.

I'm not at all convinced that is true. The young are pretty spectacularly resilient on the whole, and the opportunities for them will be - because demographics - essentially the same whatever the government. The availability of those opportunities is of course very heavily skewed - and perhaps much more so now than it was in the '70s. But that isn't confined to Conservatives by any means. Good old-fashioned nepotism is alive and well in the Labour party too.


Anyhow. I'm going to do my usual election day thing and vote as early as possible, then sit back and watch the fireworks.

 

[kmag]

17% swing needed for SNP to take Glasgow Central for Labour, can actually see them getting that. Swings will be huge from Labour to SNP. Not sure which constituencies are 'safe' from a SNP takeover.

I've been out and about for the last two hours. Ran into a local Labour convenor my Father knew. The scuttlebutt is worst case they'd have 6 seats left, best case about 15, expecting 8 or 9. Don't know how accurate that his, but the guy is extremely well connected, his son was a spad in the Brown years and he's an ex-councillor.

 

[killer_clank]

The swings to the SNP will indeed be more bigger in the West, but then seats in the east tend to have smaller labour majorities. I suspect Edinburgh will be labour's strongest area, and even then only parts of it. I'd expect north to go SNP fairly comfortably.

And in terms of Glasgow Central, I suspect Anas Sarwar is utterly fucked. Jim Murphy and Gordon Brown were in Central yesterday giving a speech and he never even got a mention.

 

[giant_frying_pan]

Tom Harris is fucked as well.

I'm right on the boundary between South and Central. I've had maybe 15-20 separate (on different days) leaflets and letters for Labour and Sarwar.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

Sounds like another good place for tactical voting. Find out what the polling is saying in your constituency and support whatever candidate keeps the Conservative party member out. If it's close between Labour and Lib Dems then you can obviously go with your gut on it.

That's exactly my tactic but against the SNP.

I really don't like the first past the post system, doesn't feel honest to me and what I feel but hey greater goals and all that.

 

[abunai]

Labour's been campaigning with conservative people around my bit, and the labour-only presence has increased significantly in the past week. I'd expect him to hold on to his seat thanks to tory voters switching to labour to keep SNP out. It'll be close, but I don't see him losing his seat. Which is unfortunate.

 

[killer_clank]

Labour's been campaigning with conservative people around my bit, and the labour-only presence has increased significantly in the past week. I'd expect him to hold on to his seat thanks to tory voters switching to labour to keep SNP out. It'll be close, but I don't see him losing his seat. Which is unfortunate.

Which seat is this? Jim's? I reckon he'll hang on with tory help.

 

[abunai]

Yea, East Renfrewshite. The SNP 'shop' or whatever you call it got vandalised the other week, and i've had about 7 labour leaflets in 3 days. No relation to the two statements, just the only notable things that's changed here lately.

edit: Ehh, unfortunate typo. I'll leave it. E. Renfrewshire.

 

[Kathian]

Really fucking depsise the neighbour letters; not even people in my street. Get away.

 

[Cdammen]

Yay Charlie Brooker's Election Wipe is coming up in about 40 minutes. I know almost nothing about the parties, since I'm a swede, but hearing a comedian talking trash about politicians is always fun.

Also, Philomena Cunk and Barry Shitpeas. You can never have enough Cunk!

 

[N7Commander95]

Wow, so the YouGov poll has Labour and Conservative as equal seats

Im currently thinking a Labour/Lib Dem Coalition backed by SNP and Plaid is a possible outcome

 

[Gawge]

Will be interesting to see 'long term tactics' in the negotiations (assuming it's as tight as most expect).

I think Labour would be far better off now, if 5 years ago they didn't completely mess up immediately after the election and lose the narrative. In the formation of the coalition, and then for a good few months, Labour were completely absent and lost the narrative - meaning they have basically had to accept the "Labour fucked the economy" narrative that the Tories and Lib Dems established and are still using fairly frequently.

There are going to be big gambles in the next few days. Labour may well go for power, but will probably be very wary of the press on their back. If the government didn't last the 5 years, then they would probably have no chance in a repeat election.

 

[phisheep]

About the SNP.

I don't find it a particular problem that they'll have proportionately more seats than they'd apparently warrant according to the polls. You'd get the same sort of effect if there were a political party devoted to improving the lot of seaside towns - and probably, because about the same population and about the same number of seats and because facing the same economic problems between themselves even more than Scotland does, that could have nearly exactly the same electoral impact as the SNP (indeed, I find it kind of tempting to set it up myself).

I don't find it a problem that all their (putative) seats are clustered together. That's just geography.

I do find it a bit of a problem that they have their own separate devolved government in which they can make policy more or less as they wish, and then also make policy across the whole of the rest of the UK. I'm not quite sure what to think about that though. Certainly it would seem very strange, unacceptable even, for SNP MPs to seek to increase spending in England by whatever means solely to increase the size of the cake that Scotland gets a part of. Certainly it would seem immoral to do this by way of imposing charges on England and/or Wales that would then be disapplied in Scotland (e.g prescription charges/tuition fees). On the other hand there's no real reason to believe they can't be perfactly functional MPs like evrybody else.

It is all very complicated. I'd rather like to think that there should be no bar - so long as the Union lasts - to a Scottish (or Welsh) MP reaching high office. But I suspect two things need to happen: (a) Nicola Sturgeon needs to take the earliest opportunity to slap down Alex Salmond, and (b) Alex Salmond needs to not be appointed Minister for the Scottish Office. Could be messy.