I have no idea why he's giving the lib dems so many seats. His conclusions make no real correlation with his polls and even the yougov nowcast.
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May 7th | UK General Election 2015 OT - Please go vote!
- Thread starter Volotaire
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killer_clank
Member
Voting in Northern Ireland seems to be an utterly terrible predicament. Not sure who I'd vote for, possibly the greens out of there being no other option.
Masquerader
Member
Alliance is also a good choice. A bit more successful, too. They're my pick for tomorrow.
But yeah, we really are the opposite of 'spoilt for choice'. Especially here in West Belfast. Grr.
Miles Quaritch
Member
Baleoce
Member
Realistically, and based on previous polls, my constituency (Hereford and South Herefordshire, which was just Hereford until the previous election) is just a 2 way scrap between Conservative and Lib Dems. More often than not, the Tories come out on top here. Based on the fact that Jesse Norman (our Tory MP) hasn't done too bad a job, and well.. the current opinion of the Lib Dems here, I'm guessing it's going to be Conservative again.
GarthVaderUK
Banned
Apparently I don't even have a Green candidate to consider voting for:
Conservative Johnny Andrews
Alliance Party Kellie Armstrong
Sinn Féin Sheila Bailie
SDLP Joe Boyle
UUP Robert Burgess
TUV Stephen Cooper
UKIP Joe Jordan
DUP Jim Shannon
A shower of bastards if ever I saw. Alliance it is.
I think we need a Dennis Pennis - Steve Martin situation with Brooker soon, "Why aren't you funny any more?"
Lidl has way surpassed Tesco in the last few years, in my humble povertarian view.
Lidl has way surpassed Tesco in the last few years, in my humble povertarian view.
QuicheFontaine
Member
I can't take Jeremy Vine's bit on the 10'o clock news seriously now that Philomena did it first!
It's either them or the UUP to unseat the DUP, not that I see Jim Shannon losing anyway. DUP had a near 6000 majority over the UUP in 2010.
Miles Quaritch
Member
My run for PM in 2020 appears to be off to a bad start
THE SUN EXCLUSIVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Sources quoted as saying CCS is a champagne swilling commie socialist! Wines and dines with the rabble and is is a frequent poster on the deeply socialist and anti everything NEOGAF!
Some even suggest he's Russell Brand in new clothing!!!
More on pages 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 8 and 10, because we've got fuck all to talk about and you'll be using this to wipe your arse tomorrow anyway.
"I for one am absolutely disgusted by this latest piece of filth from the Sun. How dare the gutter press even insinuate that I would actually have dinner with the rabble. Horrific, blatant lies."
Well the Greens, Alliance and er the Cannabis party are all nonsectarian, so that's OK. So are the Tories, but lol @ voting for them in NI.
I know very little about him but Gerry Carroll seems sound. Not sure how popular Trotskyism is these days though.
There is but I left it too late.
Randomizer
Member
Haven't voted in over 10 years and won't be doing so tomorrow either. Not even on the register anyway.
Back to the topic, I'm in a Chinese restaurant in China Town.
Which one? Golden Dragon is my fave. Thai Cottage around the corner if you fancy Thai is also very good, and Ping Pong in Soho does a pretty good all you can eat A La Carte Dim Sum on Sundays for £23.
Thai Cottage is a good shout. I liked it when I tried it.
I have a funny relationship with politics. Every time I start reading about it I get increasingly wound up until I quickly either start feeling guilty for not being well enough informed to have such a strong opinions, or just want to move onto to something else so I can feel less pissed off.
In this instance I find myself pondering the circumstance where the conservatives get enough seats to form a majority with the lib dems, and what bullshit it is that a party polling at ~10% may get to decide who governs the country.
Anyway, I'll be voting Green tomorrow (safe Tory seat).
In this instance I find myself pondering the circumstance where the conservatives get enough seats to form a majority with the lib dems, and what bullshit it is that a party polling at ~10% may get to decide who governs the country.
Anyway, I'll be voting Green tomorrow (safe Tory seat).
CyclopsRock
Member
Masquerader
Member
I'm still very fond of this.
I can't take Jeremy Vine's bit on the 10'o clock news seriously now that Philomena did it first!
'Wh' shall be his follow-up should he lose and another election be called. Up until now, 'Uh' has been gaining modest traction, though. It's possible~
I love how the Cannabis Party is probably the third most viable party in Northern Ireland. It's hilarious.
And yes, Carroll seems pretty cool. Kinda like a normal human, actually. Sadly though, Paul "Potato" Maskey has his potato face plastered everywhere, so it won't change much. :c
OH, and btw, a few weeks back, my ma said she saw Carroll in a chippie. He went in, took some napkins, and left. 'People before profit' indeed.
Love some Tsingtao, we have that in my college's bar and it's great!
QuicheFontaine
Member
If you're in a group Ping Pong won't let just one of you do the all you can eat, so you have to try and persuade everyone you're with to join in. And there's always one awkward cunt.
Yeah, I checked mine earlier (not via that page, just checked the constituency wiki) and we'd need a huge swing to Labour or Lib Dem and the history of the constituency is blue all the way (a single LibDem back in the 20's if I remember correctly).This election, like every other, but also quite unlike them, is going to come down to small numbers of votes in a small number of seats.
Find out what your constituency is, and who has a realistic shot of winning, just need to enter your postcode about halfway down the page.
If the 'Swing's listed are anywhere near 10% then you can stop worrying and pretty much vote with your heart, because your vote (like so many others) doesn't really matter.
If the 'Swing's are less than 5% then you've got a real chance to decide your MP, but probably only between a couple of parties. At that point, I would suggest voting for the lesser of whichever two evils are presented
EDIT: Unless you're in Scotland, then enjoy the 30% swing to SNP and ride the wave!
So if I were to vote labour and the conservatives, as seems likely, get in then my vote will essentially (in the wider picture I mean) have been meaningless? Seems odd!
brain_stew
Member
If you live in a marginal seat it can not be understated how crucially important your vote is at this election. A few thousand votes across the country will have a huge bearing on the makeup of the government.
One clear thing from all these recent crop of polls is that the Tories have no real route to a workable majority. Only Labour with SNP support will be able to pass a queen's speech.
I just hope that by some miracle our politics grow up after this election and the idea of cross party coalitions that represent a higher proportion of the population is taken seriously. A Labour-LD-SNP coalition could offer a stable government that represents a large swathe of the UK and there's plenty common ground to be found between the parties despite the rhetoric. No party would be able to pass their full manifesto but the public haven't given any party a clear mandate to do so, so why should they be able to?
Treating Scottish MPs and their constituents as second class citizens isn't going to strengthen the UK.
You know how bad it for Labour in Scotland when the Daily Record election day cover is this...
They couldn't even throw Scottish Labour a last minute bone. Although I do actually think that Labour will hold on to at least 10 Scottish seats which is more than most of the projections, I wouldn't be surprised if it's around 12.
They couldn't even throw Scottish Labour a last minute bone. Although I do actually think that Labour will hold on to at least 10 Scottish seats which is more than most of the projections, I wouldn't be surprised if it's around 12.
Final @guardian #GE2015 projection:
LAB 273 seats
CON 273
SNP 52
LD 27
Please end up like this.
That would be beautiful. I would dance around Oxford in a silly hat.
Final @guardian #GE2015 projection:
LAB 273 seats
CON 273
SNP 52
LD 27
Please end up like this.
I want this more than anything I think.
I think that's certainly what's best for the country. Unless the polls are wrong a Labour lead government could well be the only possibility, but if they don't get most seats or most votes they are going to face constant attacks on 'legitimacy'.
Think you'll be waiting a while I'm afraid...
Final @guardian #GE2015 projection:
LAB 273 seats
CON 273
SNP 52
LD 27
Please end up like this.
That would honestly be hilarious if that came to be.
JonathanEx
Member
I'd like to pre-emptively suggest at 10pm tomorrow we change the title to:
And the winner is ¯\_(ツ_/¯
And the winner is ¯\_(ツ
_/¯I love that Guardian prediction.
I think I missed the glut of these, but my Seat Prediction:
CON: 274
LAB: 271
SNP: 55
LDEM: 26
PC: 3
UKIP: 1
GRN: 1
OTH: 1
Sadly yes, such is the nature of our FPTP system.
On the plus side, living in such a safe seat can be liberating! Go out and vote Green, or Labour, or CISTA, safe in the knowledge that apart from doing your civic duty, it didn't really matter
I think I missed the glut of these, but my Seat Prediction:
CON: 274
LAB: 271
SNP: 55
LDEM: 26
PC: 3
UKIP: 1
GRN: 1
OTH: 1
Sadly yes, such is the nature of our FPTP system.
On the plus side, living in such a safe seat can be liberating! Go out and vote Green, or Labour, or CISTA, safe in the knowledge that apart from doing your civic duty, it didn't really matter
SymbiantXenos
Member
Watching the 1974 election on YouTube. Just because.
Final @guardian #GE2015 projection:
LAB 273 seats
CON 273
SNP 52
LD 27
Please end up like this.
Labour and SNP?
Chittagong
Gold Member
Well, London City had a good run as the financial capital of the world.
Good night, sweet prince.
Good night, sweet prince.
ShemhazaiX
Member
Are you implying its over because Tories won't get in? Or because Tories are staying in? Because nobody has a clue as to what's going to happen tomorrow.
Come on, at this point it'll be a big shock if the Tories stay in power
Shit, I think I've had a last-minute wobble about voting. A while back I got a letter confirming that I was registered to vote, but I (possibly stupidly) threw it away as it did not appear to contain my polling card or anything else. However, I am now running into the issue of finding out where to vote - I have found the list of polling stations for my local area, but I don't know my electoral register number to work out which one to go to. Is there any way I can find this out online?
Edit: I've found the polling station I voted at last election. Is it reasonable to assume it'll be the same one, given that my address is the same?
Edit: I've found the polling station I voted at last election. Is it reasonable to assume it'll be the same one, given that my address is the same?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I wouldn't say so. I think it's more likely than not Labour forms government, but it is by no means certain.
Chittagong
Gold Member
The City and startup miracle is definitely over if Labour gets in, that's pretty much everyone's honest realisation I have met. But possibly also if Tories get in, because of their EU stance.
It just baffles me that a nation would build something so successful and commercially viable as the City and then let it all slip, seemingly entirely oblivious to the reasons for the success.
Final @guardian #GE2015 projection:
LAB 273 seats
CON 273
SNP 52
LD 27
Please end up like this.
That would be amazing. Labour win in the UK, Liberal win in Canada with a sizable NDP minority, Hillary Clinton win in America... now we just need to get Tony Abbott out of power.
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