Support NeoGAF

[zorlaczerohero]

To be fair, if by some bizarre reason Russia decided to nuke the UK, I very much doubt America would nuke Russia, regardless of what agreement is in place. It's not in America's interest, as they know they'd just get wiped out by Russia.

I disagree. Unlike the US the UK doesn't require an operating government to retaliate, if command falls then orders left by the Government are opened on the Sub and followed. One sub could wipe out a huge portion of Russia's command structure including the mechanism they use for authorizing Nuclear strikes. You can also put a bet on that they'd target current leadership based on intelligence reports. Given this opportunity and a very good chance that Russia's leadership would be in turmoil or dead it would make sense for the US to finish the job once and for all. Russia doesn't have a known policy for control of the Nuclear option if the leadership is wiped out. Once this happened and presuming the Nuclear authorization system is gone, then it comes down to individual Commanders in control of a Nuclear option to decide. No way the US is going to risk that happening, the only logical route is hitting them with everything and hoping due to a borked command structure that the retaliation will be subpar.

This is all rubbish anyway, Putin likes money and power, having Moscow and himself wiped out would ruin that somewhat. All his recent crap is posturing to make himself look like a tough brute man.

But I do believe the UK needs a Nuclear deterrent at least until that crazy bastard is gone. Because without it there is a possibility the US wouldn't step in.

 

[crayman]

You honestly think that the Ukraine would have launched a nuclear weapon against Russia once these troubles started? Genuinely honestly?

We are also in NATO, why can we not do the same as the others?

Who knows if they would respond? That's the fun of nuclear deterrence. No-one knows where the line is. Is it really worth the risk of finding out? Probably not.

Yes, we could do the same. But if all of NATO other than the US gave up it's nuclear arms, then it gives too much power to the US. Having multiple sane governments with nukes helps balance everything.

 

[Walshicus]

You honestly think that the Ukraine would have launched a nuclear weapon against Russia once these troubles started? Genuinely honestly?

I don't believe the troubles would have happened in the first place if Ukraine still had its nuclear weapons.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Youch! Triple-whammy for the Conservatives; three polls released this afternoon (I think actually the YouGov might be yesterday's, but it's being re-reported in the context of the other two), all three with Labour ahead:

LAB 37%, CON 31%, UKIP 16%, LD 8%, GRN 4% (Panelbase)
LAB 35%, CON 31%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%, GRN 4% (Survation)
LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP 13%, LD 8%, GRN 5% (YouGOV)

Ed Miliband leading David Cameron for personal opinion in the first two for the first time ever. That's now 7 consecutive Labour leads on the trot, across different pollsters; averaging:

LAB 34.7%, CON 31.8%, UKIP 15.1%, LD 8.4%, GRN 4.4%

 

[kitch9]

But the global economy has also increased to an unprecedented level since the end of WWII, as has the birth rate, sales of ice cream and who knows what else.

Your attitude suggests that we can now never rid ourselves of nuclear arms because we've had them before.


As for the UNSC veto, I couldn't find anything that suggested that having a nuke kept us there and it certainly hasn't gotten India on the permanent roster since they got one. There are/were even plans to increase the permanent membership to 10 or more states, the extra mostly not having nukes at all, including Germany, Brazil, Japan etc.

Japan doesn't have any, but it has the ability to produce them and so is considered a nuclear state in every other repsect.



Are Russia dropping bombs on all the other countries that don't have them now then?

No but they are buzzing our towers with their bombers.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Youch! Triple-whammy for the Conservatives; three polls released this afternoon (I think actually the YouGov might be yesterday's, but it's being re-reported in the context of the other two), all three with Labour ahead:

LAB 37%, CON 31%, UKIP 16%, LD 8%, GRN 4% (Panelbase)
LAB 35%, CON 31%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%, GRN 4% (Survation)
LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP 13%, LD 8%, GRN 5% (YouGOV)

Ed Miliband leading David Cameron for personal opinion in the first two for the first time ever. That's now 7 consecutive Labour leads on the trot, across different pollsters; averaging:

LAB 34.7%, CON 31.8%, UKIP 15.1%, LD 8.4%, GRN 4.4%

 

[Malikov]

It was nice knowing ya dave

 

[IdreamofHIME]

Can we not just say we have nukes and get rid of them? Who would ever know?

 

[Human_me]

So did anyone just watch the Green Party's Music video (As part of their Election Broadcast) on ITV 1?
It was pretty great i thought.

EDIT: Just found out it came out yesterday.
Here's the video in case any one hasn't seen it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPgS7p40ERg

 

[tomtom94]

Youch! Triple-whammy for the Conservatives; three polls released this afternoon (I think actually the YouGov might be yesterday's, but it's being re-reported in the context of the other two), all three with Labour ahead:

LAB 37%, CON 31%, UKIP 16%, LD 8%, GRN 4% (Panelbase)
LAB 35%, CON 31%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%, GRN 4% (Survation)
LAB 35%, CON 34%, UKIP 13%, LD 8%, GRN 5% (YouGOV)

Ed Miliband leading David Cameron for personal opinion in the first two for the first time ever. That's now 7 consecutive Labour leads on the trot, across different pollsters; averaging:

LAB 34.7%, CON 31.8%, UKIP 15.1%, LD 8.4%, GRN 4.4%

Sounds like the non-dom bombshell worked.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

So did anyone just watch the Green Party's Music video (As part of their Election Broadcast) on ITV 1?
It was pretty great i thought.

EDIT: Just found out it came out yesterday.
Here's the video in case any one hasn't seen it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPgS7p40ERg

We had a chat about it a few pages back. I thought it was pretty funny; but I think the Greens would have done better to focus on policy specifics from a strategic perspective because the general view was Bennett did quite poorly on that.

Sounds like the non-dom bombshell worked.

I'm not so sure it was that in itself, but I think the Conservative reaction to it was very poorly handled and may have contributed. It just embedded the nasty party image more, and their line was very poor - you can't run "it won't change anything" and "it'll lose us a ton of money" at the same time.

 

[Yen]

"@LucidTalk:
Three polls coming out at approx. 10 tonight: ComRes/Daily Mail GB poll, YouGov/The Sun GB poll, and YouGov/The Times Scots poll."

(An NI polling company)

 

[PJV3]

I was expecting a better campaign from the tories, Dave really has got to get it together. I can hear the knives being sharpened.

 

[JonathanEx]

Look the opinion polls all say one thing, the winner of the election will be ¯\_(&#12484_/¯

 

[WayneMorse]

dat labour snp coalition

 

[Deleted member 231381]

So, is the money on Boris, May, or Osborne?

Spoiler

Or Javid lel

EDIT: Also what's the money on both the GB polls coming at 10 having Con leads just to troll us polling devotees?

 

[kmag]

So, is the money on Boris, May, or Osborne?

Spoiler

Or Javid lel

EDIT: Also what's the money on both the GB polls coming at 10 having Con leads just to troll us polling devotees?

I'd put money on it, it's still got the feel of a tied election. And frankly with 9 UK wide polls you'd expect one of them to have the Tories up even if only marginally.

Although you might see the Tory campaign implode if the Labour leads continue for a couple days. They're placing a lot of trust in Crosby's late swingback theory (although they tend to forget that he said swingback would occur in December, then in January, then after the Budget then when none of that happen after Easter, now it's due to arrive two weeks out). And frankly their campaign is already fraying at the edges at bit.

 

[Par Score]

I'd put money on it, it's still got the feel of a tied election. And frankly with 9 UK wide polls you'd expect one of them to have the Tories up even if only marginally.

Although you might see the Tory campaign implode if the Labour leads continue for a couple days. They're placing a lot of trust in Crosby's late swingback theory (although they tend to forget that he said swingback would occur in December, then in January, then after the Budget then when none of that happen after Easter, now it's due to arrive two weeks out). And frankly their campaign is already fraying at the edges at bit.

I think what might really send the Tories into headless-chicken mode is if Miliband can keep a lead in the personal ratings for a few days / a week.

Such a huge part of their narrative has been Dave strong! vs Ed weak! that to have it ripped away at this late stage could be crushing.

It would be like Labour suddenly being seen as more economically credible, it's such a central plank of the Tory offer that it's almost become un-questioned.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

British nuclear weapons... -_-

They exist because of nationalism and history, and the British public is addicted to both of those concepts.

The vast majority of voters do not understand the political circumstances surrounding UK nukes and the two big parties are happy to waste money on populist policies.

 

[pulsemyne]

It's utterly bizarre why the tories decided to bring up trident today. It makes them look totally mental because people see the 100 billion pound price tag and just think it's insane (it may not be 100 billion but that's besides the point). Whether we need a replacement or not is up for question (I think we do but there are cheaper alternatives), but bringing it up just rubs people up the wrong way and gets them saying "Well why don't we spend that on the NHS? Or education? Or a lot of other things? Or maybe not have to have austerity at all?". It makes the tories look so far out of touch it's amazing. Also making it personal against Miliband is even worse as it just makes them look like the nasty party that people think they are.
If it was intended to divert attention for the Non-dom thing then it's worked...badly. The issue will just piss people off all the more.
The tories campaign seems to be based around scaring people to death. It's not working though. This is the era of the internet and people can see through the deceit.

 

[fizzelopeguss]

Oil found in the tory heartland, watch a sudden resurgence in green ideals and NIMBY bellendery.

I more or less agree with this. Retaining our UNSC is more or less the only persuasive reason to keep a nuclear deterrent, and it doesn't require us to keep a large one. If we cut down from 4 subs to 3, and reduce to around 160 warheads, then I'd consider it done and dusted.

Downsizing like that rarely works; it'd make continuous patrols untenable and put unnecessary strain on the boats and crew. The MOD always fucks it up and it ends up costing more. The coalition cuts have made a mess of this nations military.

 

[CyclopsRock]

For context

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32229203

There could be up to 100 billion barrels of oil onshore beneath the South of England, says exploration firm UK Oil & Gas Investments (UKOG).
Last year, the firm drilled a well at Horse Hill, near Gatwick airport, and analysis of that well suggests the local area could hold 158 million barrels of oil per square mile.
But only a fraction of the 100 billion total would be recovered, UKOG admits.
The North Sea has produced about 45 billion barrels in 40 years.
"We think we've found a very significant discovery here, probably the largest [onshore in the UK] in the last 30 years, and we think it has national significance," Stephen Sanderson, UKOG's chief executive told the BBC.

 

[kmag]

Oil found in the tory heartland, watch a sudden resurgence in green ideals and NIMBY bellendery.



Downsizing like that rarely works; it'd make continuous patrols untenable and put unnecessary strain on the boats and crew. The MOD always fucks it up and it ends up costing more. The coalition cuts have made a mess of this nations military.

Just buy French instead of subsiding BAE. Unit cost of their SSBM is €3.1 Billion. The Estimates £12.9bn-£16.4bn for the subs alone according a Commons report in March (that's a unit cost of between £3.225 Billion and £4.1 Billion). I get about keeping skills and jobs but with the difference you could set each of those workers up for life.

 

[WayneMorse]

Tomorrow's Guardian

 

[War Peaceman]

Eh I would be careful about jumping to conclusions on a day or two's worth of polling.

However, the Crosby campaign is incredibly cynical and limited. If anything goes wrong their very narrow strategy folds. What an overrated man Crosby is.

 

[PJV3]

Tomorrow's Guardian

He needs to keeep his head down, avoid simple mistakes and send Balls to the amazon for a month.
The Tories can continue turning people off and hand it to him.

 

[Philly40]

For context

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32229203

Is this the same UKOG


seems legit

 

[kmag]

That Guardian front page could look pretty silly by the morning, there two more UK wide polls out tonight.

 

[tomtom94]

That Guardian front page could look pretty silly by the morning, there two more UK wide polls out tonight.

Just proves that silliness and gun-jumping pervades both wings of the press, really.

 

[Hasney]

That Guardian front page could look pretty silly by the morning, there two more UK wide polls out tonight.

Oh thank God, I thought the sofa sale wasn't real for a second there.

But realistically, it'd still have 3 polls in its favour vs 2 that aren't, so it would still look like a story in the right.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

That Guardian front page could look pretty silly by the morning, there two more UK wide polls out tonight.

I mean, ye-es, but seven in a row is quite a strong indicator Labour does have a lead. The lead is probably smaller than the margin of error, so a poll with a narrow Conservative lead would not be surprising per se, but if I were Tory HQ I'd be sweating about now.

That said, let's find out! A mere 45 minutes to go.

Also apparently there was a Northern Ireland poll released which showed no changes except for the DUP taking Belfast East off Naomi Long; that'd take them to 9 seats.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Well, the Sunday Times got bitten with the same thing a week or two back. Let's see!

 

[PJV3]

Oh thank God, I thought the sofa sale wasn't real for a second there.

But realistically, it'd still have 3 polls in its favour vs 2 that aren't, so it would still look like a story in the right.

There's always a sofa sale, they need to change the saying about death and taxes.

 

[Jezbollah]

Most certainly not a good few days for the Tories - most of their bad news self-inflicted.

If I was them I'd be re-assessing their approach and wishing for the Opposition debate next Thursday to peg Labour back.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Well, the Sunday Times got bitten with the same thing a week or two back. Let's see!

Looking back, I think there was about a period of two weeks or so in early March when the Conservatives did briefly pull ahead; I don't think the Sunday Times was wrong so much as the trend simply reversed.

 

[Humidex]

I was expecting a better campaign from the tories, Dave really has got to get it together. I can hear the knives being sharpened.

Fair to say that so far, Lynton's work hasn't had the hoped-for effect?

 

[kmag]

Sounds like one or both polls tonight are pretty good for the Tories

Tim Montgomerie
Genuine question: What would you do to rejig the Tory campaign? I’m preparing a (short term political) plan.
Tom Newton Dunn ?@tnewtondunn
@montie you’re 100% sure it needs rejigging? (ps, two more polls to come tonight)

Dunn is a Sun Journo. One of the polls is the YouGov/Sun daily, the other is a ComRes\Daily Mail

Jeremy Cliffe ?@JeremyCliffe
Hearing not all polls out tonight are quite so bad for Conservatives…

 

[CyclopsRock]

Dunn isn't just a journo, he's the political editor. No chance he doesn't know the result.

 

[JonathanEx]

Dunn isn't just a journo, he's the political editor. No chance he doesn't know the result.

And not that they'd suppress a poll, but they wouldn't go as big if it wasn't good for the Conservatives...

The Telegraph would probably just make up a large number and not bother polling

 

[Jackpot]

UKIP came out with a good policy.

UKIP has announced that it will scrap the "tampon tax" on women's sanitary products, if the party is elected.

At the moment women's sanitary items are classed as a "non-essential luxury" item by the treasury and are taxed at 5%.

UKIP's head of policy Suzanne Evans says it's "outdated and outrageous".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/32239182

In the grand scheme of things it's a small measure so I want all the other parties to copy it.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Sounds like one or both polls tonight are pretty good for the Tories

Tim Montgomerie
Genuine question: What would you do to rejig the Tory campaign? I’m preparing a (short term political) plan.
Tom Newton Dunn ?@tnewtondunn
@montie you’re 100% sure it needs rejigging? (ps, two more polls to come tonight)

Dunn is a Sun Journo. One of the polls is the YouGov/Sun daily, the other is a ComRes\Daily Mail

Jeremy Cliffe ?@JeremyCliffe
Hearing not all polls out tonight are quite so bad for Conservatives…

Yeah, sounds like at least one has a small Conservative lead.

 

[Matt_]

UKIP came out with a good policy.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/32239182

In the grand scheme of things it's a small measure so I want all the other parties to copy it.

good and I hope the other parties follow
what a stupid tax

 

[PJV3]

good and I hope the other parties follow
what a stupid tax

Yeah, I might tell the wife to stop buying these luxury and non essential products and use rolled up newspapers instead.

Wonder who gave them that classification?

 

[tomtom94]

Yeah, I might tell the wife to stop buying these luxury and non essential products and use rolled up newspapers instead.

Wonder who gave them that classification?

A man

 

[CyclopsRock]

I assume the definition comes from an age when they were actually new as a consumer product. Pulling that out of my arse but it's the only thing that makes sense to me.

 

[CyclopsRock]

1pt Con lead in both.

LDs on 12pt in ComRes. Interestinf how the Guardian front page has two pollsters without pedigree. Be interesting to see where this goes.

 

[JonathanEx]

1pt Con lead in both.

Well I give it a day

 

[tomtom94]

I assume the definition comes from an age when they were actually new as a consumer product. Pulling that out of my arse but it's the only thing that makes sense to me.

According to a Telegraph article I found from when the "stop taxing tampons" petitions first started up, VAT first applied to tampons in 1973. Was going to say "well, the Heath administration was just a bit silly" but Wiki suggests that Australia introduced a similarly applicable tax which also included tampons (GST) in 2000 so I'm not so sure.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

ComRes/Mail/ITV:

CON 34 (-2)
LAB 33 (+1)
LIB 12 (+3)
UKIP 12 (=)
GRN 4 (-1)

YouGov/Sun:

CON 35 (+1)
LAB 34 (-1)
LIB 8 (=)
UKIP 12 (-1)
GRN 4 (-1)

 

[Par Score]

1pt Con lead in both.

But ComRes is still a 3pt move toward Labour, only YouGov showing movement in the opposite direction. Still seems like a significant shift in the polls.