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May 7th | UK General Election 2015 OT - Please go vote!

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kmag

Member
ComRes/Mail/ITV:
CON 34 (-2)
LAB 33 (+1)
LIB 12 (+3)
UKIP 12 (=)
GRN 4 (-1)

YouGov/Sun:
CON 35 (+1)
LAB 34 (-1)
LIB 8 (=)
UKIP 12 (-1)
GRN 4 (-1)


YouGov/Times (Scotland only)

SNP 49 +3
Lab 25 -4
Con 18 +2
LD 4 +1

Two Tory 'leads' changes the media narrative but the YouGov in particular just seems to be MOE churn and is probably just rounding differences compared to yesterday. Still as tight as a gnats arse.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
The overwhelming movement is towards Labour - only YouGov defies the trend.
 

Meadows

Banned
ComRes/Mail/ITV:
CON 34 (-2)
LAB 33 (+1)
LIB 12 (+3)
UKIP 12 (=)
GRN 4 (-1)

YouGov/Sun:
CON 35 (+1)
LAB 34 (-1)
LIB 8 (=)
UKIP 12 (-1)
GRN 4 (-1)


YouGov/Times (Scotland only)

SNP 49 +3
Lab 25 -4
Con 18 +2
LD 4 +1

Two Tory 'leads' changes the media narrative but the YouGov in particular just seems to be MOE churn and is probably just rounding differences compared to yesterday. Still as tight as a gnats arse.

Clegg leaving bodies erry-where

Deputy PM-AF
 

kmag

Member
The overwhelming movement is towards Labour - only YouGov defies the trend.

YouGov will be weird for a bit. They've changed to their election methodology which changes their weighting on likelihood to vote and (I think for the first time don't remember them doing it last time) they're no longer using 2010 Voting but instead using the respondents January/February VI for their screening. It might take some settling down.
 

Nicktendo86

Member
Given up on polls, its a fool's game trying to read them at the moment.

Only thing I am sure of is the Tory campaign has been a joke so far and I think I am in love with Ruth Davidson.
 
That Scotland poll comes out to:

SNP 53
Lab 4
Con 1
LD 1

That would be a massive disaster for them in Scotland. I mean seriously bad.

The Tory campaign has been abysmal, it's not a surprise to see Labour improving in the polls. Today's campaign on Trident was terrible.

Everything is way too negative from them. They need to paint a positive vision of Britain under the Conservatives. Last time they had Dave's big society and all that hug a husky crap. It didn't appeal to me, but it was at least some kind of positive vision of the nation. Right now they don't offer anything going forward other than not being economically incompetent like Labour, which, frankly, is not good enough.

I think Labour will end on 35% with the Tories on 36%, but that effective tie will mean Labour will end up on around 280 seats vs the Tories on around 275. With the SNP they will have an effective majority as well as having an equal number of seats in England.

Still I topped up on a Labour majority on Betfair today. The odds on offer were too good in the 40s. I soaked up a fair amount. If Labour do win a majority then at least I can go on a nice holiday with my winnings!
 
The Conservative campaign so far is a narrow drive on Ed Milliband, and seems to be entirely reliant on this being successful. The television debates have seeded doubt among the membership, and you can feel the pressure rising as it grows more ineffective by the day, members are losing confidence and between defections, leadership doubts and a lack of reliable political alliances, the entire thing seems soon to collapse.
 

Nicktendo86

Member
The Tories are in desperate need of some passion. This robotic 'we are economically competent' stuff is not good enough, people want to be sold sold ideals. Cameron looks like he isn't bothered anymore, he has already started thinking of his retirement.

The reason I am such a fan of Ruth is she is, to me, the perfect politician. Intelligent, funny, comes across as passionate and yet had a prior life with a real job and has life experience, has been on a zero hour contract for example. She symbolises the fresh face the Tories should be showing IMHO, opposed to the tired old Etonian of Dave & co.

I hope the Tories pull things around. Maybe they will pull some surprises with their manifesto but the campaign so far has been dire. Utterly dire.
 
CCLhC_pW8AI_phB.jpg


Sun not convinced enough of significance to front page it at all then.
 
The Conservative campaign so far is a narrow drive on Ed Milliband, and seems to be entirely reliant on this being successful. The television debates have seeded doubt among the membership, and you can feel the pressure rising as it grows more ineffective by the day, members are losing confidence and between defections, leadership doubts and a lack of reliable political alliances, the entire thing seems soon to collapse.

I wouldn't go that far. The Tories will still have a lot of seats after the election and I think Boris will do well as leader, at least initially. In London he has reached centrist Labour voters that Dave has not be able to get into his tent. Recovering from 270-280 seats in opposition vs a minority government compared to under 200 seats in 1997.

Also, there is a lot of talent on the Tory front bench, Liz Truss and Sajid Javid would both make a lot of inroads into voter groups the Tories need to win an election.

I also think Labour are selling an unrealistic vision to their voters, and when they do end up implementing basically the same programme as the current coalition wrt to cuts and austerity I think a lot of them will be less than enamoured. Given that it will probably be a minority government there will be a lot of instability and to get the finance programme through it will require opposition votes which isn't going to be a happy sight for the current crop of Labour voters.
 

PJV3

Member
The Conservative campaign so far is a narrow drive on Ed Milliband, and seems to be entirely reliant on this being successful. The television debates have seeded doubt among the membership, and you can feel the pressure rising as it grows more ineffective by the day, members are losing confidence and between defections, leadership doubts and a lack of reliable political alliances, the entire thing seems soon to collapse.

The Ed's a wally thing has been going on for years in the press, the tories banging on about him for a month isn't going to swing any votes. They should have focused on something else, they have somehow managed to improve his ratings.
 

Marc

Member
With regards to nukes, and the military as a whole. Requiring nukes and a fleet of ships requires years of planning, construction and operational costs. Training soldiers requires months. I have no idea why people want to push towards a situation where we might 'need' the former and be stuck waiting and essentially lose before any potential war begins. Rather than build up the latter in no time at all. Or IMO in that time you could build up a drone anti-personnel army instead to save lives, as a ground war is likely going to be against a 3rd world nation.

The navy and the nuke program is the most essential part of our military, and if you can't think of how and where these would be used then you really aren't thinking very hard. Japan and Germany used as examples against earlier, gee, why do you think they really don't have nukes? They both know it would be pushing their luck severely to start a nuclear program. Japan in a way 'can't' due to the laws imposed after their surrender and are in some ways a proxy state under the US umbrella. That can all change obviously as it is just a bit of text, but it would likely start an arms race. If Germany don't feel safe under NATO with more Russian threats, things can change. As for iraq, afghanistan and Argentina... c'mon and think please. These were not first class military's, we will not be in a 5-10 year war of attrition with them where we suffer heavy losses and financial burden where we can no longer afford to be 'nice'. Smart missiles cost huge amounts of money, if Argentina could drag a war out and start probing our home defences (assuming they magically gain the ability to project power) then nukes could be used. We don't have long range bombers or infinite smart missiles, our projection of power are basically carriers (which we don't have) and subs with nukes. You would hope the enemy at that point would have the sense to surrender before any launch but sense and war rarely go together.

Also people don't seem to think ahead at all, only think in the here and now. Yes the current EU are all left wing and nice, that is changing due to their policies having a detrimental effect on their populace. Who may turn from the 'nice' right wing option to the crazy right wing nutter section. I mean, its not like that would ever happen... right? In 5-10 years time the political landscape may be completely different and a nuclear deterrent is essential. As I say, things where massive amount of time and money are required should be the priority over other areas since you can't fix your incorrect assumption otherwise.

I feel like the details can get lost in a discussion of this as nuclear weapons and their use is so abhorrent no one wants to consider them. Which is the correct way of thinking, except not everyone thinks like that and to assume everyone is like you is not well reasoned. So if you think of it as a bazooka, handgun, shiv comparison. Your tribe is alone in a savage land, it takes a month to engineer the bazooka and get working. It takes a week to get the gun built and less than a day to get a shiv ready. Other tribes around you are random, their leaders and policies change frequently and some have one of each or all of them. You could be peaceful and fore sake all weapons and be at their mercy. Historically... not wise. You can go all out and get a bazooka, which you can wipe out another tribe with and they know it. If you do this you may be considered a threat by others with bazooka's and wiped out, so it is in your interests only to use it in self defence. Really though, you want a mix of all options and start on the longest to achieve straight away. Sometimes you'll come up against a tribe with shivs so can just use your guns. The ones with just guns know that you'll use your guns as a first option (since again other bazooka nations will worry about you) but if things start to look bad for them always have that bazooka option, so generally a good idea not to even bother. But if they do go ahead, and they do look like winning, you have your ace in the hole to decide your own fate. You could argue whether you are a people worth saving if you go through with it, but at least you have the option to decide.

Lots of ways of putting this, and maybe a simple one based on real history is best. If the battle of Britain started and Churchill had nukes... what would he have done? I'm not a Churchill fanatic or anything btw, he was human and therefore deeply flawed. That is a real world scenario however and I wonder what the anti-nuke debaters would believe could happen.

/wall of text rant

Fair to say that so far, Lynton's work hasn't had the hoped-for effect?

Nope, basically just handed all the initiative to his opposition. By trying to stand on the sidelines he is marginalized, not sure what they were expecting other than maybe hoping Ed produced gaffe after gaffe. Seems like a pretty pussified way of running a campaign.

UKIP are amazing. They'll pump extra money into killing foreigners, by taking money away from needy foreigners, thus killing two foreigners with 1 stone.

I mean, i'm aware that a lot of that money does go towards the like of India who, yes, have a space program. I just think UKIP are being severely disingenuous when they state that that's their actual motivation.

Do you actually believe this or repeating what you have heard? UKIP were anti-war while Labour/Tories were waxing their new planes. They were very proactive in stating they were against actions in syria, in libya, Iraq, even afghanistan seemingly etc.. Stated many times they think it causes more problems than it solves and that the defence budget is just that, for defence.

When they have talked about funding increases it is mostly centred around better equipment and post-service care.
 

Nicktendo86

Member
Marc, my opinion on the military is torn. There is no doubt the biggest threat facing us right now is terrorism and lone wolves like the Lee Rugby killers which requires intelligence, not a large army.

However, there are serious issues such as Russia and ISIS which require a defence be on standby.

Nuclear weapons fucking scare me and I would love to see the day this planet is rid of them. However, that day will not be coming anytime soon and retaining trident is a must, for now.

So in summary, I have no fucking idea what we should do with the military.
 

King_Moc

Banned
Lots of ways of putting this, and maybe a simple one based on real history is best. If the battle of Britain started and Churchill had nukes... what would he have done? I'm not a Churchill fanatic or anything btw, he was human and therefore deeply flawed. That is a real world scenario however and I wonder what the anti-nuke debaters would believe could happen.


Was what we did To Dresden all that different, really? I feel we need to have some nukes knocking around just incase. It's a hell of a thing to take a chance on.



Do you actually believe this or repeating what you have heard? UKIP were anti-war while Labour/Tories were waxing their new planes. They were very proactive in stating they were against actions in syria, in libya, Iraq, even afghanistan seemingly etc.. Stated many times they think it causes more problems than it solves and that the defence budget is just that, for defence.

When they have talked about funding increases it is mostly centred around better equipment and post-service care.

I'm generally being facetious when talking about UKIP. I don't take them at all seriously, so I don't talk about them seriously. I also wouldn't trust Farage to claim that and actually mean it in any way.
 

Marc

Member
Marc, my opinion on the military is torn. There is no doubt the biggest threat facing us right now is terrorism and lone wolves like the Lee Rugby killers which requires intelligence, not a large army.

However, there are serious issues such as Russia and ISIS which require a defence be on standby.

Nuclear weapons fucking scare me and I would love to see the day this planet is rid of them. However, that day will not be coming anytime soon and retaining trident is a must, for now.

So in summary, I have no fucking idea what we should do with the military.

You see, this is one of the worst things about the current media/governments usage of terrorism to scare the masses. Terrorism kills next to nothing of the population, it is not a real threat. It feels bad, it looks worse and it does what it says on the tin but in the great scheme of things it is a bad joke. Bee stings kill as many people, I remember seeing a stat on toilet related deaths being higher. The IRA were a much bigger threat than anything we're facing now, yet the hyperbole is that we are under siege somehow. Especially in military terms, it is a non-entity. Falklands war account for 255 deaths in a couple of months. Terrorism kills about 3-5 on average a year in the UK, so going by the higher rate it takes 51 years of terrorism to equal a 2 month wars death toll. They do not require the simply ludicrous amount of spending, time, erosion of freedom and resources dedicated to them. Also what you are talking about is not really the military but the police and MI5.

Personally I think foreign wars are for the most part done for the wrong reasons and not very well, that we should do them as a last resort. If ISIS are launching attacks on our land from abroad then you have to go take them out, otherwise let them do their thing and it'll burn itself out as it has in the past. You'll just end up helping them with recruits otherwise.

The scare anyone who is of a right mind, some people don't have right minds however and for them they only understand strength. As honestly the same goes for any weapon. Ideally no one would need any gun, but being at the mercy of those with a weapon just doesn't work as a country. You tend to get walked all over, as we ourselves should know considering how much we did it to others.


What I consider a real threat are failed states, there are a lot of bubbles out there currently. A lot of economies that can go pop, and in doing so their countries. You are a a bad meal away from a revolution in some places and you don't tend to get benevolent people filling power vacuums. It is crazy how much the world is on a knife edge and we forget how quickly things change. The Euro collapses, smaller countries turn into failed states, anger grows, every state turning on each other and suddenly you get another cold war or in fact open war. It sounds crazy and yet it has already happened with the Ukraine, EU interfere just a little bit and suddenly you get a 'civil' war and off the back of that a new cold war. A new Afghanistan proxy for west v east. A good example of a country that got rid of nukes and assumed they would be protected by this imaginary umbrella.


Was what we did To Dresden all that different, really? I feel we need to have some nukes knocking around just incase. It's a hell of a thing to take a chance on.


I'm generally being facetious when talking about UKIP. I don't take them at all seriously, so I don't talk about them seriously. I also wouldn't trust Farage to claim that and actually mean it in any way.

No, quicker, but no not really. Which is why it is odd of people to say we would never do it. This is a guy who would mustard gas the fuck out of anyone if it won him the war. That is your job in war at the end of the day, and you make shitty decisions to win it. It is easy to be a moral force in iraq and others (I'd argue we weren't personally) but when the chips are down, things would escalate very quickly.

Ah ok, fair enough, I find it weird they are probably second only to the greens with their anti-war stance but they have consistently come out against action. In weighing up trust of politicians I'll go with the group who haven't said one thing and done another, UKIP in power may very well do a 180 on everything they have said. Wouldn't be the first or last.
 
Scottish people: The SNP have long done better at the Scottish Parliament than at Westminster. This is roughly analagous to how much better UKIP do in the EU elections vs Westminster.

With UKIP, this is because no one gives a fuck about the EU elections and just likes to give it a kick. I assume this isn't the case with the Scottish Parliament, so why the difference? It's worth noting that the polls this year suggest that this won't be the case this year, but given they've always done well in the SP, does this suggest that - rather than the Referendum actually changing anyone's party allegiance - people who were already SNP supporters have traditionally just been voting tactically in GE's? But this doesn't seem to make too much sense to me either because too many seats have enormous Labour majority (ie who are they trying to tactically keep out by voting Labour?!) Has there really been a ground swell of increased support since the referendum? But if so, why are their Westminster constituency voteshare predictions roughly in line with their SP votes from 2011 in many (though not all) cases?


Basically, in 2007 the SNP won by a whisker on a good solid campaign that showed up the unambitious Lab/Lib coalition in Scotland at the time ("best wee country in the world" summed it up). Iraq War/Blair fatigue helped as well. The labour vote mostly stayed solid. SNP support goes up during this time (Glasgow East) as they're seen to be a decent govt, and the Brown govt is in the doldrums.

In 2010, the campaign to stop a tory govt by voting Labour worked a lot, and generally Scottish people backed Brown over the tories. It wasn't particularly a vote out of love for Labour, but a strongly anti-tory one.

The SNP in 2011 steal a lot of the traditional Labour support because they ran a great campaign based on their record against a terrible Labour campaign and poor first minister candidate.

Then the referendum starts and this voted Labour 2010 but voted SNP 2011 crowd starts coming over to the Yes side of the campaign, and gradually a lot of these people begin to strongly identify with the SNP, even if some of them had previously voted for them before but were still "labour" voters. The Better Together campaign with the Tories seriously damaged a huge proportion of their base, a large chunk of whom voted yes.
 

Jackpot

Banned
The navy and the nuke program is the most essential part of our military, and if you can't think of how and where these would be used then you really aren't thinking very hard.

We're all ears...

Also people don't seem to think ahead at all, only think in the here and now. Yes the current EU are all left wing and nice, that is changing due to their policies having a detrimental effect on their populace. Who may turn from the 'nice' right wing option to the crazy right wing nutter section. I mean, its not like that would ever happen... right? In 5-10 years time the political landscape may be completely different and a nuclear deterrent is essential. As I say, things where massive amount of time and money are required should be the priority over other areas since you can't fix your incorrect assumption otherwise.

So we're going for alternate history fan fiction scenarios? For when France reanimates Napoleon and they threaten to annex Brighton? We need to spend 20 billion on these extreme possibilities but not for other equally dangerous but ludicrous scenarios such as an asteroid shield? And only nukes can save us from these dangers, not kilotons of normal explosives? Are we expecting aliens who are only weak to radiation?
 

scotcheggz

Member
You see, this is one of the worst things about the current media/governments usage of terrorism to scare the masses. Terrorism kills next to nothing of the population, it is not a real threat. It feels bad, it looks worse and it does what it says on the tin but in the great scheme of things it is a bad joke. Bee stings kill as many people, I remember seeing a stat on toilet related deaths being higher. The IRA were a much bigger threat than anything we're facing now, yet the hyperbole is that we are under siege somehow. Especially in military terms, it is a non-entity. Falklands war account for 255 deaths in a couple of months. Terrorism kills about 3-5 on average a year in the UK, so going by the higher rate it takes 51 years of terrorism to equal a 2 month wars death toll. They do not require the simply ludicrous amount of spending, time, erosion of freedom and resources dedicated to them. Also what you are talking about is not really the military but the police and MI5.

Personally I think foreign wars are for the most part done for the wrong reasons and not very well, that we should do them as a last resort. If ISIS are launching attacks on our land from abroad then you have to go take them out, otherwise let them do their thing and it'll burn itself out as it has in the past. You'll just end up helping them with recruits otherwise.

The scare anyone who is of a right mind, some people don't have right minds however and for them they only understand strength. As honestly the same goes for any weapon. Ideally no one would need any gun, but being at the mercy of those with a weapon just doesn't work as a country. You tend to get walked all over, as we ourselves should know considering how much we did it to others.


What I consider a real threat are failed states, there are a lot of bubbles out there currently. A lot of economies that can go pop, and in doing so their countries. You are a a bad meal away from a revolution in some places and you don't tend to get benevolent people filling power vacuums. It is crazy how much the world is on a knife edge and we forget how quickly things change. The Euro collapses, smaller countries turn into failed states, anger grows, every state turning on each other and suddenly you get another cold war or in fact open war. It sounds crazy and yet it has already happened with the Ukraine, EU interfere just a little bit and suddenly you get a 'civil' war and off the back of that a new cold war. A new Afghanistan proxy for west v east. A good example of a country that got rid of nukes and assumed they would be protected by this imaginary umbrella.

Me and my dad have talked about this a few times before too. I was born in 81 but still have memories of the IRA, they bombed a hotel in my city. Yet the narrative was very different. Terrorists today feels like how I imagine the red scare was for people during the cold war. Reds under the bed and all that.
 
Marc, my opinion on the military is torn. There is no doubt the biggest threat facing us right now is terrorism and lone wolves like the Lee Rugby killers which requires intelligence, not a large army.

However, there are serious issues such as Russia and ISIS which require a defence be on standby.

Nuclear weapons fucking scare me and I would love to see the day this planet is rid of them. However, that day will not be coming anytime soon and retaining trident is a must, for now.

So in summary, I have no fucking idea what we should do with the military.

I think the main issue is that a mega expensive nuclear deterrent is a guarantee, while our Armed Forces' capability to respond to threats to our national interest has been well and truly buggered by successive, sweeping cuts.

I'm not for US or Israel levels of defence spending as a percentage of GDP, but I think the loss of tens of thousands of skilled personnel, and our loss of vital capabilities in areas such as maritime patrol are a huge danger.

Look at Sierra Leone in 2000, where our ability to drop in a battalion of paratroopers and special forces blokes at the right time played a huge role in ending a civil war and stabilising not just that country, but really the whole region. Then there's the matter of the Falklands, and the simple fact that we wouldn't be able to mount an amphibious counter-attack like in 1982.
 
It's worth remembering that the defence spending review that shelved the existing carriers was conducted in the context of 2010 and not 1982. It's true we couldn't mount an amphibious task force a la 82 but it's also the case that the actual islands of the Falklands are significantly, significantly better protected as is (the airfield has been significantly bolstered, it has what are basically the four most advanced fighter jets in the souther hemispere stationed there, the comms and radar equipment means that the RAF knows more about the sky above Argentina than the Argentinians do etc) plus we now have the capability to strike from Ascension which we didn't really in 82. This is all whilst, at the same time, the ability of the Argentinian forces to mount an assault comparable to 82 has diminished. So, all things considered, the prospect of being without aircraft carriers for ~8 years isn't as big of a blow to the safety of the Falklands in 2010 as it would have been in, say, 1978.
 
If neither party does a coalition with the SNP won't that mean Scotland will have very few MPs in Westminster?

Who ends up in coalition doesn't impact the number of MPs a party has - in fact, it's the other way around. If the SNP win 40 seats, they'll have 40 seats in the House of Commons until the next election, and Scotland will always have 45. Whether they end up in a coalition or, more likely, a sort of ad-hoc agreement with Labour, sort of depends on how many seats they get vs how many Labour, the Tories, the Lib Dems get etc. The total number of seats a "coalition" (inc ad hoc ones) need is around 330. Ergo the more seats the SNP get, the more chance they'll be involved. That said, because they're taking so many of them from Labour, in practical terms it probably doesn't really make that much difference re: whether or not Ed can become PM.
 

Marc

Member
We're all ears...


So we're going for alternate history fan fiction scenarios? For when France reanimates Napoleon and they threaten to annex Brighton? We need to spend 20 billion on these extreme possibilities but not for other equally dangerous but ludicrous scenarios such as an asteroid shield? And only nukes can save us from these dangers, not kilotons of normal explosives? Are we expecting aliens who are only weak to radiation?

You say fan fiction, then name a historical figure...

Yes Jack, those people exist and you think in times of hardship if France has an economic collapse (Impossible! lol) they won't turn to more vitriolic statesman? How exactly do you think past wars and nutty state leaders have come about? it took 5 years for the NSDAP to go from a nothing party to the ruling majority. The biggest boost it got was from a financial crisis over the course of 2 years.

I am all in for an asteroid shield btw so sign me up. :p

Me and my dad have talked about this a few times before too. I was born in 81 but still have memories of the IRA, they bombed a hotel in my city. Yet the narrative was very different. Terrorists today feels like how I imagine the red scare was for people during the cold war. Reds under the bed and all that.

Yeah, grew up with the same thing and in terms of success rate I consider the IRA a way bigger threat yet people just got on with it. 7/7 wasn't far from me but don't feel that same kind of threat and really there is very little you can do if someone wants to do something like that. Only sheer stupidity or lack of conviction tends to lead to these events being stopped. You are more likely to die from a car, tripping over your own feet, killed by a dog or all manner of crazy things... not worth worrying about. Yet the rhetoric is one of panic, and I think the reasons for that are very clear and a much bigger threat to our society.
 

RedShift

Member
You say fan fiction, then name a historical figure...

Yes Jack, those people exist and you think in times of hardship if France has an economic collapse (Impossible! lol) they won't turn to more vitriolic statesman? How exactly do you think past wars and nutty state leaders have come about? it took 5 years for the NSDAP to go from a nothing party to the ruling majority. The biggest boost it got was from a financial crisis over the course of 2 years.

I am all in for an asteroid shield btw so sign me up. :p

...Even if the idea of Nazis taking over France was realistic at what point would it be a good idea to lob nuclear weapons at them?

Surely any alternative, even defeat and occupation by Napoleon's reanimated corpse would be better than certain death for everyone.
 

Marc

Member
...Even if the idea of Nazis taking over France was realistic at what point would it be a good idea to lob nuclear weapons at them?

Surely any alternative, even defeat and occupation by Napoleon's reanimated corpse would be better than certain death for everyone.

I think Hitler was just a background nobody for quite a while within the party, then chancellor. For all we know there is someone like that within the National Front, or hell the UMP... everything is 20/20 in hindsight. It wouldn't be a good idea, that's the point of them. Its not good for either one; so you limit the extent of escalation to a point. If they really are nuts enough to launch them then people would see that and hopefully overthrow that person.

Also it depends, if the plan is to wipe us all out after our defeat then may as well attempt a first strike and hope you get lucky. There are millions of variations and scenarios you can cook up and debate the merits of. They give options and scenarios for defence we would otherwise not have, you can then have those discussions if the need occurs.
 
The Beer Hall Putsch was in 1923. So, when something like that happens anywhere close to the UK, you've got ten years to make some nukes, assuming of course, the nation that has enough nukes to destroy the planet thousands of times over decides not to back you up at all.
 
We should just ditch trident without telling anyone. Cook the books so it looks like we're maintaining them. That way the deterrent exists without actually costing us a fortune
 

Goodlife

Member
I don't get the fuss of Trident though.

If Labour get a minority and go into an informal coalition with SNP then it'll make no difference as Labour + Tories will get the yes vote through the commons.
 
You see, this is one of the worst things about the current media/governments usage of terrorism to scare the masses. Terrorism kills next to nothing of the population, it is not a real threat. It feels bad, it looks worse and it does what it says on the tin but in the great scheme of things it is a bad joke. Bee stings kill as many people, I remember seeing a stat on toilet related deaths being higher. The IRA were a much bigger threat than anything we're facing now, yet the hyperbole is that we are under siege somehow. Especially in military terms, it is a non-entity. Falklands war account for 255 deaths in a couple of months. Terrorism kills about 3-5 on average a year in the UK, so going by the higher rate it takes 51 years of terrorism to equal a 2 month wars death toll. They do not require the simply ludicrous amount of spending, time, erosion of freedom and resources dedicated to them. Also what you are talking about is not really the military but the police and MI5.

Ugh, you're like an 80s Head & Shoulders advert.

The reason why terrorism death rates are so low in the UK is exactly because there's so much spending on preventing these attacks before they happen. Every month it seems there's more would-be terrorists in court facing charges of a plot which could have killed 100s if it hadn't have been stopped.
 

kmag

Member
New Populus poll:
Lab 33 (-),
Con 31 (-),
LD 8 (-2),
UKIP 16 (+1),
Greens 6 (+2),
Others 7 (-)

Business as usual.

If people want to see the scale of the task facing Labour in Scotland one only has to look at the tables in the latest Scottish poll from YouGov

All these figures are only for 2010 Scottish Labour Voters

Do you think Nicola Sturgeon is doing well or badly as First Minister?
Total Well 71
Total Badly 28

Do you think that Jim Murphy is doing well or badly as leader of the Scottish Labour party?
Total Well 48
Total Badly 43

Do you think Ed Miliband is doing well or badly as leader of the Labour party?
Total Well 43
Total Badly 54

Which leader do you think came across the best in the FIRST debate?
Sturgeon 52
Murphy 23
Davidson 10
Rennie 0
Not Sure 15

Westminster Voting Intention 2015
Lab 48
SNP 41
Con 7
UKIP 2
Lib Dem 1
Green 1

Interesting that there's a 9pt move to the Conservatives and UKIP.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Are those Westminster voting intentions right, kmag? Only this:

Westminster Voting Intention 2015
Lab 48
SNP 41
Con 7
UKIP 2
Lib Dem 1
Green 1

Would be unexpected, to say the least.
 

kmag

Member
Are those Westminster voting intentions right, kmag? Only this:

Westminster Voting Intention 2015
Lab 48
SNP 41
Con 7
UKIP 2
Lib Dem 1
Green 1

Would be unexpected, to say the least.

It's the current VI for the GE from Scottish respondents in the YouGov/Times Scottish poll who identified as voting Labour in 2010. So basically tracking the moment from Labour to other parties.

If you look at the full tables, the SNP have taken about voters equally away from Labour and Lib Dems but almost none from the Tories.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
It's the current VI for the GE from Scottish respondents in the YouGov/Times Scottish poll who identified as voting Labour in 2010. So basically tracking the moment from Labour to other parties.

If you look at the full tables, the SNP have taken about voters equally away from Labour and Lib Dems but almost none from the Tories.

Oh, sorry, I thought that was a separate table. yeah, that's a pretty shocking problem. I'd be careful though, sub-samples have a much larger margin of error; I'd guesstimate from a quick look that those tables have a MoE of +/-9%.
 

Faddy

Banned
Are those Westminster voting intentions right, kmag? Only this:

Westminster Voting Intention 2015
Lab 48
SNP 41
Con 7
UKIP 2
Lib Dem 1
Green 1

Would be unexpected, to say the least.

That is only Labour Voters correct so 40% of people who voted Labour at the last election will ow vote SNP. That is a huge swing. Even if there is some flow the other way it would do little to stem the tide. Got to be a massive blow for Jim Murphy. Combined with the high rate of party identification amongst SNP supporters it shows far and fast support has waned from Scottish Labour and how fully people have committed to the SNP cause.
 
Random question from a dumb American - is this massive movment over to the SNP from Labour supporters in Scotland largely all because of Labour supporting the 'No' vote on Scotland independence or is that the independence referendum turned SNP into a viable actual option to a lot of soft Labour voters before?

And if both are right, what's the split? 60/40? 80/20? 50/50?

After all, I guess it can't be people pissed over New Labour since those people would've already jumped to the SNP years before.
 
Random question from a dumb American - is this massive movment over to the SNP from Labour supporters in Scotland largely all because of Labour supporting the 'No' vote on Scotland independence or is that the independence referendum turned SNP into a viable actual option to a lot of soft Labour voters before?

And if both are right, what's the split? 60/40? 80/20? 50/50?

After all, I guess it can't be people pissed over New Labour since those people would've already jumped to the SNP years before.

Killer_clank gave his interpretation above.
 

War Peaceman

You're a big guy.
I think Hitler was just a background nobody for quite a while within the party, then chancellor. For all we know there is someone like that within the National Front, or hell the UMP... everything is 20/20 in hindsight. It wouldn't be a good idea, that's the point of them. Its not good for either one; so you limit the extent of escalation to a point. If they really are nuts enough to launch them then people would see that and hopefully overthrow that person.

I'm so sorry to derail but I just had to point this out

Err no. Hitler joined the DAP, quickly became chief of propaganda, had the party renamed to the NSDAP(Nazis). Although he went to jail after the Beer Hall Putsch, when he emerged he was in charge. He was an important figure pretty much from the start.

But yes, UK politics.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Random question from a dumb American - is this massive movment over to the SNP from Labour supporters in Scotland largely all because of Labour supporting the 'No' vote on Scotland independence or is that the independence referendum turned SNP into a viable actual option to a lot of soft Labour voters before?

And if both are right, what's the split? 60/40? 80/20? 50/50?

After all, I guess it can't be people pissed over New Labour since those people would've already jumped to the SNP years before.

Partly both. Partly, Labour being seen to ally with the Conservatives was a huge blow to their credibility when they've sold themselves as being the anti-Conservative party for the last few decades; partly, Scottish Labour are incompetent and have very few good people whereas the SNP are perceived as pretty good so if you are pro-Union, you can now vote for them totally on competence terms and be confident it doesn't mean the Union breaking up.

It's difficult to tell what the split is, but I think the majority is probably the former, and by a relatively heavy weighting, just judging by when exactly the shift occurred.
 
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