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May 7th | UK General Election 2015 OT - Please go vote!

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Lol. I just left Farringdon station to see a lovely looking young guy and girl just setting up a Socialist Worker stand with photos of David Cameron in spooky black and white. I didn't have the heart to tell them that, as sleepy jobless socialists, they'd obviously gotten up late and therefore basically missed rush hour and that the exit to the station they were setting up outside of closes in about half an hour. Well, I say I didn't have the heart. Obviously I wouldn't want to get close enough to them to have a vocal conversation, not just because of the fleas but I just don't want to catch lazyitis.
 
as I just said, Andy Burnham just confirmed it, they will go minority on the basis the SNP will not vote against them and they are going to quote 1979

A Lot!!

what labour could be the party in power even if they have fewer seats in the house of common than the tory's?
 

King_Moc

Banned
I was so convinced before question time Miliband would enter a coalition with SNP and form a government, surely that isn't going to happen now. So what was his plan now? another election hoping to get the Scottish vote that way, or to scare the Scots now?

I have no idea where this is going to go now, predictions?

A Labour minority government. The SNP have to vote for it, they'll do anything to avoid a tory government and have promised their voters as much. So a formal coalition isn't needed. The polls need to be way off base for it to not happen at this point.
 

Tak3n

Banned
what labour could be the party in power even if they have fewer seats in the house of common than the tory's?

yep, as SNP will always vote against the tories...

I for one feel they wont have a mandate, but a lot of posters will disagree with me and say any government that can govern by any means has a mandate...

if the polls stay the same Labour are going to go minority with a gun against the SNP.......

stable government? not in a million years, will they care? I highly doubt it
 

kmag

Member
I was so convinced before question time Miliband would enter a coalition with SNP and form a government, surely that isn't going to happen now. So what was his plan now? another election hoping to get the Scottish vote that way, or to scare the Scots now?

I have no idea where this is going to go now, predictions?

Minority Labour government. The current polling is true, Dave will either get voted down on a queens speech or vote of confidence or get told to sling his hooks by the Civil service so as not to put Lizzie on the spot. Miliband will get invited to see if he can form the next government.

A minority government doesn't need an upfront deal as long as a majority of the house will not vote it down on confidence. The SNP, SDLP, Plaid and Greens won't do that to let the Tories back in, none of them can afford a new election (except the SNP but they'll have probably just won a massive victory so won't risk it).

The SNP can't vote down a Labour government, it'll kill them in Scotland if the result of that is a Tory government. So the SNP will vote for the stuff where there's overlap, offer amendments which Labour will vote down (which the SNP can use in Scotland to show that it's still New Labour) and abstain or vote against some of the stuff they really disagree with.

The SNP have had experience of minority government without any formal agreement, having to negotiate with unfriendly parties to get budgets through, they know you you can make it work.

It might not last 5 years but I'd wager if there's around 330 anti-tories for lack of a better word then it'll probably be relatively stable for a couple of years until the non tories refill their coffers.
 

Hasney

Member
how is this possible, this is all news to me. I thought if no party could get a majority it would be another election

They usually call another election because it doesn't look great to the electorate.

That said, there could be a situation where Labour have less seats, but more of the popular vote. I would say if that were to happen, then they do have a mandate.
 

Saiyar

Unconfirmed Member
No, its an opinion piece from one of the worlds leading Keynesian economists (not to mention if he was European, he would describe himself as as socialist). Asking someone who believes in Keynesian economics if they believe in the austerity is like asking a turkey if it will vote for Christmas.

That's the whole point on this. You are just seeing things from the Keynesian angle and nothing more. Which I am not surprised about as you obviously lean left. Though it would be interesting if you follow him in everything he believes, like high inflation, or if you just pick and choose the parts you like in just a general sense.

Two replies and you still haven't even attempted addressed the content of the article. At least I know not to waste any more time.
 

Audioboxer

Member
The first thing the SNP will want is to secure the promises the No campaign made in order to keep the union.

If those fail to materialise, I can quite easily see them pushing for another referendum. And who could blame them? Scotland has been promised the world, Westminster has no intention of ever delivering and now the nation is being dragged through the mud and told that it's elected MPs have no place in a legitimate UK government.

Fool me once...

Hear, hear!
 
how is this possible, this is all news to me. I thought if no party could get a majority it would be another election

Well no one got a majority at the last election either, that's why we had a Tory + Lib Dem coalition. As long as some group of MP's add up to over half the total (and can therefore pass bills like Budgets), you have a government. It doesn't actually matter if that group comes from one party or 15 in that sense. Obviously, though, the more parties, the more chance of disagreements that could lead to the breakdown of that relationship, and when they can no longer command over half the MP's of the house, that's when they're in danger of having to call another election.
 
Hear, hear!

I personally have no problem with Scotland getting more powers but you have to appreciate that the MP's in England work for their constituents just like the MP's in Scotland - it doesn't really matter if Brown and Cameron and Darling got together and decided to re-write the British constitution on a napkin in the sleeper to Edinburgh back in September; They didn't have a mandate to make that offer from the people. There were many articles written at the time about how, whilst the English generally wanted to retain the union, they didn't wish to do so at literally any cost. As such, it doesn't really matter what Scotland was promised by people with no ability to make those promises - the MPs in England have to represent the best interests of their constituents, so support of the change really comes down to the details.
 
If a majority of the elected mp's vote in favour of that government then that kind of works in lieu of an actual majority.

So Ed yesterday was some fucking masterful move placing the SNP between a rock and a hard place. He has them by the balls doesn't he.

I thought the ball was in the SNP's court but in fact he just snatched it back.
 
So Ed yesterday was some fucking masterful move placing the SNP between a rock and a hard place. He has them by the balls doesn't he.

I thought the ball was in the SNP's court but in fact he just snatched it back.

Sturgeon:

tumblr_m0y6bp9uAP1r604ofo1_500.gif
 
I personally have no problem with Scotland getting more powers but you have to appreciate that the MP's in England work for their constituents just like the MP's in Scotland - it doesn't really matter if Brown and Cameron and Darling got together and decided to re-write the British constitution on a napkin in the sleeper to Edinburgh back in September; They didn't have a mandate to make that offer from the people. There were many articles written at the time about how, whilst the English generally wanted to retain the union, they didn't wish to do so at literally any cost. As such, it doesn't really matter what Scotland was promised by people with no ability to make those promises - the MPs in England have to represent the best interests of their constituents, so support of the change really comes down to the details.

It matters in the sense that many people will have had their vote influenced by those promises. If they fail to deliver on the promised new powers then it stands to reason that a second referendum should be held in the not too distant future, as galling as that may be to some.
 

PJV3

Member
So Ed yesterday was some fucking masterful move placing the SNP between a rock and a hard place. He has them by the balls doesn't he.

I thought the ball was in the SNP's court but in fact he just snatched it back.

They have each other by the balls.
 

CCS

Banned
I don't see the SNP having the balls to let a Labour Government fail. Given their projected poll numbers it would be pretty much impossible for them to get more seats, so a second election could only hurt them.
 

Seanbob11

Member
So Ed yesterday was some fucking masterful move placing the SNP between a rock and a hard place. He has them by the balls doesn't he.

I thought the ball was in the SNP's court but in fact he just snatched it back.

Exactly what I thought. Ed will just put up a queens speech and if the SNP shoot it down and another election is called I can see Labour gaining more of the Scottish seats.

I don't see the SNP having the balls to let a Labour Government fail. Given their projected poll numbers it would be pretty much impossible for them to get more seats, so a second election could only hurt them.

Basically this.
 

Tak3n

Banned
So Ed yesterday was some fucking masterful move placing the SNP between a rock and a hard place. He has them by the balls doesn't he.

I thought the ball was in the SNP's court but in fact he just snatched it back.

this is how it will be

The SNP can bring down the Labour Government.

By doing so they would be bringing down their own Government in Scotland.

they are both locked and effectively will be playing Russian roulette.

for me, it is a crazy way to run a government, but the anti-tory feeling is so prominent that people seem willing to risk everything to get the tories out.
 
It matters in the sense that many people will have had their vote influenced by those promises. If they fail to deliver on the promised new powers then it stands to reason that a second referendum should be held in the not too distant future, as galling as that may be to some.

Maybe, but the people of Scotland must also have realised that the people making those promises weren't actually in a position to do so. I mean, Darling and Brown weren't even in the shadow cabinet, let alone the government.

That said, I think Scotland will get more powers in the coming parliament. It's more or less one of the few things I'm certain of, because both the major parties will receive support from the SNP for them most likely. The only real question is, if it's the Tories, what the solution to EVEL would be which seems, for Cam, to be a prerequisite.

Also I think devolving fiscal powers to Scotland would be a nightmare for Scotland.
 

CCS

Banned
this is how it will be

The SNP can bring down the Labour Government.

By doing so they would be bringing down their own Government in Scotland.

they are both locked and effectively will be playing Russian roulette.

for me, it is a crazy way to run a government, but the anti-tory feeling is so prominent that people seem willing to risk everything to get the tories out.

It's not that crazy when you think about it. The entire point of Labour is to be in government instead of the tories, and it's hard to overstate just how much Scotland hates the tories.
 

PJV3

Member
Pretty much. At least Labour may be able to use them to get key votes through. The headlines in the right wing rags will be pretty hilarious if this all actually works.

I'm looking forward to it.

Murdoch will be going mental.
 

Tak3n

Banned
It's not that crazy when you think about it. The entire point of Labour is to be in government instead of the tories, and it's hard to overstate just how much Scotland hates the tories.

but everyone agrees that the biggest reason UK is coping with the financial crisis is because of a stable government, who showed the financial markets exactly how they will handle it...

but we are about to go into a administration based on the theory of

"my enemy hates you more than they hate me"

how the financial markets respond to this could be very costly to all of us
 

kmag

Member
So Ed yesterday was some fucking masterful move placing the SNP between a rock and a hard place. He has them by the balls doesn't he.

I thought the ball was in the SNP's court but in fact he just snatched it back.

Not really. The SNP's overriding goal is independence but their next strategic goal is maintaining power in Holyrood in a system specifically designed not to allow any one party to be in power.

The Westminster election is a means to an end for the SNP. They get to clearly position themselves to the left of Labour and via amendments pick away at Labours need to attempt to appeal to middle England. This strengthens the SNP in Scotland. The SNP aren't in a rush, they were sort of backed into a referendum a bit sooner than they would have liked. They wanted the fall out of the financial crisis to be over before the question was put, but as it was in their manifesto and they unexpectedly won a majority in the Scottish elections their bluff was called.

The SNP don't need much more than that. From talking to a few activists relatively high up in the SNP they don't really want a 2nd referendum until they know they can win it. They point to Quebec as to what can happen if a 2nd referendum is called too soon. Their leadership is happy to wait (whether the parties new membership is as happy to wait is another question) and gradually push for new powers for Scotland. There's a worry in the SNP that too many new powers too soon would put an unrealistic expectation on them, and that that it would be better to drip feed that process.

A bit like UKIP there's no real mileage in a coalition or formal deal for the SNP, they get to snipe from the sidelines taking credit for good policies they vote through, amending policies and getting labour to vote them down and rejecting the unpopular stuff all governments have to put through. As a party with a high number of 'protest' votes that's ideal.
 

RedShift

Member
but everyone agrees that the biggest reason UK is coping with the financial crisis is because of a stable government, who showed the financial markets exactly how they will handle it...

but we are about to go into a administration based on the theory of

"my enemy hates you more that they hate me"

how the financial markets respond to this could be very costly to all of us

I imagine they'll react better than they will if we spend 2 years carefully considering whether or not to commit economic suicide in an EU referendum that has the potential to break up the Union.
 

CCS

Banned
but everyone agrees that the biggest reason UK is coping with the financial crisis is because of a stable government, who showed the financial markets exactly how they will handle it...

but we are about to go into a administration based on the theory of

"my enemy hates you more than they hate me"

how the financial markets respond to this could be very costly to all of us

To be fair, a Conservative minority government wouldn't be any more stable.
 

Protome

Member
I personally have no problem with Scotland getting more powers but you have to appreciate that the MP's in England work for their constituents just like the MP's in Scotland - it doesn't really matter if Brown and Cameron and Darling got together and decided to re-write the British constitution on a napkin in the sleeper to Edinburgh back in September; They didn't have a mandate to make that offer from the people. There were many articles written at the time about how, whilst the English generally wanted to retain the union, they didn't wish to do so at literally any cost. As such, it doesn't really matter what Scotland was promised by people with no ability to make those promises - the MPs in England have to represent the best interests of their constituents, so support of the change really comes down to the details.

When you get to matter of "Scotland doesn't get the powers it wants because England doesn't want them to have them" it gets kinda dark and that's the kinda mentality that would ensure a second referendum happens soon and is a landslide victory. There's literally no chance that there wont be a strong amount of devolution in the future, regardless of whether the English electorate want it or not.

The SNP can bring down the Labour Government.

By doing so they would be bringing down their own Government in Scotland.

This is a massive exageration, SNP aren't just popular in Scotland because "They hate the Tories," they're popular because they've been running Scotland incredibly well while in power. Comparatively, Labour votes have largely been falling because of what a mess they were perceived as being last time
and admittedly also because they teamed up with the Tories over the Referendum...

I think the only way they would lose enough face during this to lose popularity in Scotland would be if they voted in a Tory government, not if they voted down everything.
 

Tak3n

Banned
To be fair, a Conservative minority government wouldn't be any more stable.

agreed, and I believe in democracy, even though I am a tory voter if the vote says Labour then fair enough....

but not like this (cue lots of gifs)

another election should be called, this game of dare and double dare is what we did as kids
 

Tak3n

Banned
When you get to matter of "Scotland doesn't get the powers it wants because England doesn't want them to have them" it gets kinda dark and that's the kinda mentality that would ensure a second referendum happens soon and is a landslide victory. There's literally no chance that there wont be a strong amount of devolution in the future, regardless of whether the English electorate want it or not.



This is a massive exageration, SNP aren't just popular in Scotland because "They hate the Tories," they're popular because they've been running Scotland incredibly well while in power. Comparatively, Labour votes have largely been falling because of what a mess they were perceived as being last time
and admittedly also because they teamed up with the Tories over the Referendum...

I think the only way they would lose enough face during this to lose popularity in Scotland would be if they voted in a Tory government, not if they voted down everything.

ok, I was para phrasing Andy Burnham who said this morning they would be citing 1979 to any SNP MP's who try to vote against Labour polices
 
agreed, and I believe in democracy, even though I am a tory voter if the vote says Labour then fair enough....

but not like this (cue lots of gifs)

another election should be called, this game of dare and double dare is what we did as kids

How should that election work though is the question? What would have changed for there to be a different result? Unless you say to people "OK, Tories and Labour were top, pick one"?
 

Yup, hands up, I got that bit wrong! But my primary point is that no one had the mandate to offer those powers. It depends entirely on what the powers are, but if they end up being ones that impact the rest of the UK in some way, you can't expect the electorates outside of Scotland to just shrug and say "Well, fair's fair, Cameron did promise."
 
Yup, hands up, I got that bit wrong! But my primary point is that no one had the mandate to offer those powers. It depends entirely on what the powers are, but if they end up being ones that impact the rest of the UK in some way, you can't expect the electorates outside of Scotland to just shrug and say "Well, fair's fair, Cameron did promise."

At that point you're edging towards "What you want doesn't matter, because England says so", or at least giving that impression to voters.
 

Tak3n

Banned
How should that election work though is the question? What would have changed for there to be a different result? Unless you say to people "OK, Tories and Labour were top, pick one"?

agreed, I appreciate you can not keep calling one until the public gets pissed off and mass votes for the Greens :)

I don't know the answer, but I do believe you should have to form formal coalitions, as power by the back door in my view should not be allowed to any party

Forcing MP's to talk and negotiate should be the least we expect in my opinion
 
agreed, I appreciate you can not keep calling one until the public gets pissed off and mass votes for the Greens :)

I don't know the answer, but I do believe you should have to form formal coalitions, as power by the back door in my view should not be allowed to any party

Forcing MP's to talk and negotiate should be the least we expect in my opinion

That's fair.
 

Goodlife

Member
agreed, I appreciate you can not keep calling one until the public gets pissed off and mass votes for the Greens :)

I don't know the answer, but I do believe you should have to form formal coalitions, as power by the back door in my view should not be allowed to any party

Forcing MP's to talk and negotiate should be the least we expect in my opinion

Being in government doesn't really mean much though if you can't get the votes in the house.

So a minority Labour government will put a Bill to the house and then the MPs, voted for by the people, from various parties, will get to decide whether that Bill passes or not.

To me, that seems extremely democratic.
 
At that point you're edging towards "What you want doesn't matter, because England says so", or at least giving that impression to voters.

Well that's an entirely unreasonable impression. The Calman report - the Scottish Parliaments own report, not some Westminster lacky - suggested that any tax raising powers given to Holyrood should be done in conjunction with a cut back in Barnett (Barnett being entirely flawed as a concept but tolerated on the grounds that Holyrood's hands are tied due to their lack of tax raising ability and thus they need the extra money). It's demonstrably true that the people of England subsidise the tax payers of Scotland (in, is it, 12 of the last 15 years?). Generally speaking I don't think the people of England could give two hoots if Scotland has its own tax raising powers, but if they do I think most of them would want to stop subsidising them. The Vow, however, offered both.
 

PJV3

Member
Being in government doesn't really mean much though if you can't get the votes in the house.

So a minority Labour government will put a Bill to the house and then the MPs, voted for by the people, from various parties, will get to decide whether that Bill passes or not.

To me, that seems extremely democratic.

It's better than the last coalition agreement, it will be debated in parliament instead of negotiated in secret in a room.
 
Well that's an entirely unreasonable impression. The Calman report - the Scottish Parliaments own report, not some Westminster lacky - suggested that any tax raising powers given to Holyrood should be done in conjunction with a cut back in Barnett (Barnett being entirely flawed as a concept but tolerated on the grounds that Holyrood's hands are tied due to their lack of tax raising ability and thus they need the extra money). It's demonstrably true that the people of England subsidise the tax payers of Scotland (in, is it, 12 of the last 15 years?). Generally speaking I don't think the people of England could give two hoots if Scotland has its own tax raising powers, but if they do I think most of them would want to stop subsidising them. The Vow, however, offered both.

Here's the thing I don't get, as an American. OK, so the Scots, (in the views of the English), are self-centered asses who talk about leaving the union all the time and who are stealing English money to spend on whatever despite being an economically destitute region, for a variety of reasons.

To me, that sounds like Mississippi. Or Georgia. Or Arizona. Or one of a ton of states in the US that are net beneficiaries of federal spending because they have lots of poor people. And, yes, sometimes people whine about that, but nobody seriously attacks Mississippi or push's forth the idea that Congressman from Missisippi or Virginia shouldn't vote on matters that are about say, funding a wildlife preservation area in Colorado. I mean, even people like me who point out the disparity in federal money don't mind it, we just want Georgia to stop acting like they've built their current economy on their own bootstraps, when in reality, they're a welfare state. At least Scotland, by their support of a social democratic party, understands that. :)

Because we're a nation. When one area is in bad economic times, we'll send 'em money and vice versa. I mean, I can at least understand why people didn't want to bail out Greece or Italy, since the EU is a newer thing. But, the UK has been the UK for 500 years.
 

CCS

Banned
Here's the thing I don't get, as an American. OK, so the Scots, (in the views of the English), are self-centered asses who talk about leaving the union all the time and who are stealing English money to spend on whatever despite being an economically destitute region, for a variety of reasons.

To me, that sounds like Mississippi. Or Georgia. Or Arizona. Or one of a ton of states in the US that are net beneficiaries of federal spending because they have lots of poor people. And, yes, sometimes people whine about that, but nobody seriously attacks Mississippi or push's forth the idea that Congressman from Missisippi or Virginia shouldn't vote on matters that are about say, funding a wildlife preservation area in Colorado. I mean, even people like me who point out the disparity in federal money don't mind it, we just want Georgia to stop acting like they've built their current economy on their own bootstraps, when in reality, they're a welfare state. At least Scotland, by their support of a social democratic party, understands that. :)

Because we're a nation. When one area is in bad economic times, we'll send 'em money and vice versa. I mean, I can at least understand why people didn't want to bail out Greece or Italy, since the EU is a newer thing. But, the UK has been the UK for 500 years.

As a half Scot, it's probably to do with the fact that Scotland came very close to leaving the country. No state in America is doing that.
 

Protome

Member
The SNP aren't in a rush, they were sort of backed into a referendum a bit sooner than they would have liked. They wanted the fall out of the financial crisis to be over before the question was put, but as it was in their manifesto and they unexpectedly won a majority in the Scottish elections their bluff was called.

This is definitely true. Especially given the early push to try and put "Devo Max" on the ballot (with no clear explanation as to what that even was.)

I still firmly believe that if there had been a Devolution option on the ballot the referendum wouldn't have even been close.
 
As a half Scot, it's probably to do with the fact that Scotland came very close to leaving the country. No state in America is doing that.

Eh, from what I've read, the "Scotland are scroungers stealing English money to fund their lavish welfare state" seems to have been a right-wing trope in the UK for a while now. It's only been kicked up a notch since the referendum.
 
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