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[Fady K]

I can't believe you responded to that.

Why, there's nothing wrong with that - he now clarified to me something I had previously not known.

I own every major console since the NES generation except for PS3.

Oh, i see. I just thought you didn't cause I have never heard you speak much about a game/console thats not from a Nintendo system/Nintendo. I misunderstood.

 

[charlequin]

It seems like you have a problem understanding my argument.

Nobody is having trouble understanding it; people are rejecting it because it's constructed in reverse from a desired end goal ("how could the PS3 succeed?") rather than forward from a desire to predict the future accurately ("is the PS3 likely to succeed?")

I never said it would be a single factor that would increase the PS3's sales; I said it would be multiple factors that hopefully coincide simultaneously with the release of Final Fantasy XIII

Right. "Hopefully." You are suggesting that factors will come together to buoy the PS3 regardless of the individual likelihood of those factors. This has always been a consistent hope for people who are invested in seeing any sort of current trends turn around, but it's not an effective piece of analysis without specific, concrete reasons establishing what will change in order to adjust these trends.

Yes, "Sales Age" is often wrong; often, current data will not predict shifts in trends in the future (obviously, or else there wouldn't be a shift).

Not really "often." Sales-Age is frequently off in terms of individual software performance, because data is sparser and far more individual distinguishing factors come into play; its track record as a whole on overall hardware performance is pretty good, especially in Japan.

While yes, I concede that MGS4 currently is doing less well in Japan than its predecessors, it's still putting up very strong numbers when taking into account the userbase, and I feel that Final Fantasy XIII will easily follow this trend

Pretty much every regular MC contributor agrees that FFXIII will sell between 1.5-2 million in Japan and be one of the best performing titles relative to the PS3's userbase, I'm fairly confident.

The issue is how that affects hardware performance. Regardless of the problems with people's first-week predictions for MGS4, the Sales-Age consensus on hardware boost was right on the money. Less than 200k people bought PS3s as part of the MGS4 bump, even with a bundle in place -- so at least 60% of the game's buyers were people who had already invested in the system some time ago. FFXIII is going to be the same way because it's been one of the system's selling points from the beginning. Almost any really hardcore FF fan has already purchased a PS3 in order to play the game.

all I'm saying is that it will have much better days than it is having right now.

And without specific factors which do not seem to be on the horizon, systems very rarely have "much better days" that only begin two or three years into their lifespan.

 

[Private Hoffman]

The problem with your argument is your "multiple factors" don't seem to be very well defined. What are these multiple factors? You keep hinting that PS3 is suddenly going to get great software even after it has sold poorly both hardware and software wise for nearly 2 years.

Price drops and hardware revisions to consoles only take you so far- you need great games, and your argument in that regards keeps boiling down to Final Fantasy. That's it.

Furthermore, you really aren't paying attention to charlequin's great posts if you are equating Final Fantasy to Monster Hunter. There is absolutely nothing new about Final Fantasy. There is nothing new about Final Fantasy that potential PS3 owners haven't known about for over 2 years.

Final Fantasy XIII, Final Fantasy vs. XIII, Gran Turismo, and White Knight story aren't good software titles? I'd like to think we'll also have a clearer picture of the more immediate future at TGS.

There is nothing new about FF that potential PS3 owners haven't known about? What is this supposed to mean?

You can still be excited about Final Fantasy and expect to purchase a PS3 in the future, even though you don't feel so inclined currently. Final Fantasy XIII is still quite a ways off.

 

[gantz85]

That the planned PS3/FFXIII demo bundle in March 2009 will spur significant HW sell-through that may or may not be sustained by the release of WKS around the same time followed by the full release of FFXIII later in 2009.

What Sony does in terms of size/cost reductions next year is anyone's guess. But the opportunity exists for a relaunch of PS3 in Japan.

Yes, I'm really more interested in a discussion about the possible kind of strategic planning that Sony has to put in place in order to bring about a better performance for PS3 in Japan rather than continually slamming Sony for its performance the past 18 months. We can call it a "relaunch", and such a strategy would involve:

(1) Sustained release of good-sales software i.e. compelling content, over a period of at least 6 months. The burden should be largely carried by Sony's 1st party efforts.

(2) Price reduction

(3) Slim redesign


These are things we all know, but I'm also more interested in how they put these pieces into place - what level of price reduction to take, when it should happen, should the slim redesign be synchronized with any particular software launch, how to pack a great software release schedule and so forth.

One thing is for sure, I REALLY do think that TGS2008 is the right time for Sony to unveil this relaunch plan in some degree. Inspiring some level of confidence in Japanese developers at that time is key, although they will obviously not be able to reveal the redesign or price reduction dates if they are set far away. By this, I mean that if in TGS2008 we do not see a forward-looking aggressive strategy by Sony intent on securing better performance in the Japanese market, that I think 2009 will be too late.

 

[Pureauthor]

You cite MHP as a breakout title for the PSP, and to me that is Final Fantasy XIII on the PS3 (perhaps combined with GT5).

But charlequin has just shown why it is highly unlikely that FFXIII can be considered a selling point on the same level as Monster Hunter.

Games that 'win' generations are almost universally 'new' to the public consciousness. Super Mario Bros., Sonic the Hedgehog (didn't make the Genesis win but made it a contender... in America anyway), Pokemon, Final Fantasy VII, GTA3, Wii Sports, Nintendogs... games that lead to a massive surge in popularity for a system are almost never the veteran franchises of previous generations but new hotbloods that relatively few people knew about before hitting the bigtime.

Final Fantasy XIII, Final Fantasy vs. XIII, Gran Turismo, and White Knight story aren't good software titles? I'd like to think we'll also have a clearer picture of the more immediate future at TGS.

I can also play the card that new and stunning announcements in the near future will cause the Wii and DS to explode to even greater heights than ever before, but why would I? It's all just a guessing game with no supporting evidence either way.

There is nothing new about FF that potential PS3 owners haven't known about? What is this supposed to mean?

It means that it's Final Fantasy. It means that those who like Final Fantasy will buy it, those who don't, won't. It hasn't shown any sea changes that will make people who've disliked Final Fantasy say 'I gotta get me some of that.'

Much in the same way that MGS4 sold to the MGS fanbase.

You can still be excited about Final Fantasy and expect to purchase a PS3 in the future, even though you don't feel so inclined currently. Final Fantasy XIII is still quite a ways off.

Right, and no one (sensible) denies that the PS3 will see a boost in the weeks immediately following FFXIII's release. However, most people who pay attention to Sales-Age and the Japanese market also fully expect this to be very temporary, due to the observed nature of similar boosts, as well as the Japanese market's specific game buying (and returning) tendencies.

 

[jimbo]

Yes, I'm really more interested in a discussion about the possible kind of strategic planning that Sony has to put in place in order to bring about a better performance for PS3 in Japan rather than continually slamming Sony for its performance the past 18 months. We can call it a "relaunch", and such a strategy would involve:

Has a re-launch ever happened/worked?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Has a re-launch ever happened/worked?

PSP slim

 

[schuelma]

Final Fantasy XIII, Final Fantasy vs. XIII, Gran Turismo, and White Knight story aren't good software titles? I'd like to think we'll also have a clearer picture of the more immediate future at TGS.

Versus won't be out for a long time. Who knows on GT5. White Knight Chronicles will be good I'm sure, but a system seller/ high impact release?

And you keep on waiting on TGS to suddenly spring forth a ton of great PS3 software. I've kind of asked you this before- what possible justification/reasoning do you have for expecting a flood of PS3 software at TGS and beyond?

There is nothing new about FF that potential PS3 owners haven't known about? What is this supposed to mean?

You can still be excited about Final Fantasy and expect to purchase a PS3 in the future, even though you don't feel so inclined currently. Final Fantasy XIII is still quite a ways off.

Piggy backing off of charlequin, Final Fantasy is already a known quantity and has factored into potential PS3 purchases since the PS3 was released. Monster Hunter was a phenomenon that came out of nowhere (at least in terms of becoming such a huge hit on PSP.) Final Fantasy is not coming out of nowhere.

 

[charlequin]

What is important is for Sony to put out a renewed strategy with core JP-centric 1st party titles that will push the market. This is the way they can pour renewed vigor and velocity in the hardware-software feedback loop. They don't have a very strong track record in doing this so they counts against them, but it is a strategy they can pursue anyway.

Yup. I wouldn't disagree with this. I think Sony has had the tools to do this in specific markets in the past (LBP is an effort at this, and Sony Europe's late-gen PS2 spread of games like Singstar and Buzz was another), but they haven't really demonstrated the ability to do it in Japan right now. If we saw a turnover in staff, or they have a show sometime next year that demonstrates a new compelling vision, I could see that contributing to some minor resurgence, but that's really just a flight of fancy in looking at matters on the ground right in the present.

That the planned PS3/FFXIII demo bundle in March 2009 will spur significant HW sell-through that may or may not be sustained by the release of WKS around the same time followed by the full release of FFXIII later in 2009.

There is no reason to expect an FFXIII demo to spur sales when, unlike GT5rologue, it's not really a playable game in its own right (and, again, this presumes that there is a huge untapped market of potential FFXIII buyers who have yet to purchase a PS3 for some reason). WKS is a new IP from an inconsistent dev whose in-house-designed RPG titles have never topped 400k LTD; it might do well for itself but expecting it to be a monster success seems dramatically over-optimistic.

 

[MassiveAttack]

There is no reason to expect an FFXIII demo to spur sales when, unlike GT5rologue, it's not really a playable game in its own right (and, again, this presumes that there is a huge untapped market of potential FFXIII buyers who have yet to purchase a PS3 for some reason). WKS is a new IP from an inconsistent dev whose in-house-designed RPG titles have never topped 400k LTD; it might do well for itself but expecting it to be a monster success seems dramatically over-optimistic.

I tend to agree with you. No one knows what SE means by a "playable demo". For all we know, it could be 10 minutes long with 5 minutes of cutscenes.

As for WKS, absolutely nothing has been seen of the game since TGS2007. In fact, so little has been seen of anything funded by SCEI that it's nearly impossible to gauge the software landscape of the PS3 for the next year. Perhaps TGS2008 will hold some answers.

 

[Private Hoffman]

Versus won't be out for a long time. Who knows on GT5. White Knight Chronicles will be good I'm sure, but a system seller/ high impact release?

And you keep on waiting on TGS to suddenly spring forth a ton of great PS3 software. I've kind of asked you this before- what possible justification/reasoning do you have for expecting a flood of PS3 software at TGS and beyond?

I'm not saying TGS will, just that we'll have a clearer picture of the immediate future. GT5, White Knight Story, Final Fantasy XIII, and Final Fantasy vs. XIII are the known titles so far and likely to do well (some more than others).

And it's not as though the PSP has had an onslaught of titles...just a key select few was enough. GT5 and Final Fantasy are pretty big.

Piggy backing off of charlequin, Final Fantasy is already a known quantity and has factored into potential PS3 purchases since the PS3 was released. Monster Hunter was a phenomenon that came out of nowhere (at least in terms of becoming such a huge hit on PSP.) Final Fantasy is not coming out of nowhere.

You can be a title that comes out of nowhere and pushes sales, and you can be a title that everyone expects and pushes sales. I don't buy for a second someone's claim that FFVII wasn't part of a 'veteran series'.

 

[test_account]

The issue is really less in what argument is being presented and more in what end it is being presented to serve. Private Hoffman's MO here is to run interference for Sony. If someone can't leave their biases at home and come to Sales-Age willing to accept and learn from events as they happen, they're arguing disingenuously and it sours the debate.

Hoffman's going about it in a more reasoned way than the standard "crazy poster of the week," but in the end his argument breaks down to a well-refuted base case ("FFXIII will save the PS3") that falls back to a defensive nuh-uh position ("well, you guys were wrong about MGS4 software sales!") The idea that PS3 could have an unexpected revival isn't tempered by a realistic understanding of what that would require, or of how unlikely such a thing is -- or, more specifically, of the fact that there are no good candidates for software or strategy changes on the horizon that might aid in such a revival.

With the PSP, a canny eye could have suggested a direction the system could take to tack towards greater success by noting MHP's early status as a breakout PSP hit that dramatically improved over its console counterpart. PS3 doesn't have an equivalent breakout hit yet, nor can I think of anything announced that could really qualify on the Japan side. (As much as I don't think LBP will be that breakout hit in the West, it's at least a reasonable candidate to propose for such a thing.)

To be fair, he did mention both FF13 and PS3 Slim, not just FF13. If FF13 was launched today i dont think it would have done much difference in the long run, i agree to that, but in about a year from now, with the launch of PS3 Slim, a price drop and the release of FF13 (hypotetical speaking about these things of course, no PS3 slim or a price drop in the future has been announced yet), who knows what will happend after that.

Today it doesnt look like that the PS3 situation will change, i agree to that, but what will happend in the future is anyone's guess. You can look on past sales data and predict that the situation will be simular in the future as well, and looking at this previous data the predictions that are being made might become true, but in the end this sales data isnt hard evidence on what that will happend in the future.

Its true that PS3 doesnt have any breakout-title yet, but we have no idea of what games that will be announced in the future or what that will happend in the future

Correct me if i'm wrong, but i think that Private Hoffman used the "you're wrong about the MGS4 sales" comment to prove that people can be wrong about what will happend. Looking at previous sales data on PS3 games before MGS 4 was launched there wasnt much indications based on this previous sales data that MGS 4 would sell like it did (atleast the 1st week sales).

 

[[Nintex]]

It seems like you have a problem understanding my argument. I never said it would be a single factor that would increase the PS3's sales; I said it would be multiple factors that hopefully coincide simultaneously with the release of Final Fantasy XIII, and I think that if you believe Sony will continue selling at its current lows then that is a foolish position to take.

Yes, "Sales Age" is often wrong; often, current data will not predict shifts in trends in the future (obviously, or else there wouldn't be a shift). While yes, I concede that MGS4 currently is doing less well in Japan than its predecessors, it's still putting up very strong numbers when taking into account the userbase, and I feel that Final Fantasy XIII will easily follow this trend -- perhaps slightly less than previous installments, but still strong. Many people predicted it would be a much greater failure, and sales age nearly took some guy's head off for suggesting first week sales of 450+k....but it happened. Surely, Square's decision to support the Xbox 360 in western markets with FFXIII is partially a move to mitigate whatever loss in sales they expect in Japan and then some.

Some people are convinced that the PS3 will be forever doomed. I'm not suggesting it will ever start outselling the Wii, DS, or PSP anytime soon, all I'm saying is that it will have much better days than it is having right now. Currently, we know very little about the software landscape from late 2009 and beyond, much less how Sony structures the PS3 in terms of pricing and SKUs.

You cite MHP as a breakout title for the PSP, and to me that is Final Fantasy XIII on the PS3.

But again, this is all speculation. We'll see what happens in the future. I'm halfway inclined to bookmark this thread just in case what I'm saying comes to pass.

If FFXIII is a 'failure' than both Sony and Square-Enix are in big trouble. Sony could kiss SE support goodbye if FXIII bombs so that won't ever happen.

Sony fans seem to ignore the fact that the Wii will continue to perform better and better, it will secure more third party support and marketshare. The Xbox 360 is here to stay as well, even in Japan Microsoft won't throw in the towel. The 360 might only gain 0.02 marketshare, but MS is able to cripple Sony in Japan at the same time by securing more sofware support. The problem with the Blu-Ray/HD/high-end side of things however is that these people looking for the ultimate BR player won't buy the PS3 but Panasonic's, Sony's or Samsungs new standalone players instead. Also movie fans might buy one or two movie tie-in games but most of them won't be interested in most of the PS3's line-up. Sony dug themselves a grave early on, Nintendo took their market expanded it and MS succesfully increased the "hardcore" Xbox fanbase.

People who buy the PS3/Xbox 360 might be interested in the Wii as well. The bulk of the Wii fanbase however is not interested in the PS3/Xbox 360 at all due to Nintendo's brilliant marketing strategies. Even though they're all game systems Nintendo convinced their customers and your mom that the Wii is about fun and family entertainment and the other systems are left out of the picture. I've yet to see Sony or MS outdo Nintendo's marketing in this regard. They brainwashed an entire new generation of gamers just like they did with the NES before.

 

[charlequin]

Games that 'win' generations are almost universally 'new' to the public consciousness. Super Mario Bros., Sonic the Hedgehog (didn't make the Genesis win but made it a contender... in America anyway), Pokemon, Final Fantasy VII, GTA3, Wii Sports, Nintendogs... games that lead to a massive surge in popularity for a system are almost never the veteran franchises of previous generations but new hotbloods that relatively few people knew about before hitting the bigtime.

Yup. These "sea change" titles don't always have to be new IPs, but they have to bring something new to the table that's relatively unprecedented: GTA3 and FFVII both expanded the scope of their gameplay and presentation to new levels an order of magnitude greater than their predecessors, Donkey Kong Country did something totally new with presentation on an old system, Monster Hunter Portable changed the appeal of its gameplay dramatically by bringing in-person co-op play into the picture, etc.

FFXIII really doesn't do anything new for the franchise. It's a natural evolution of FFX in pretty much every way. It's all done with a familiar team of creators. Pretty much everyone knew from the moment it was revealed how much they cared about it, and that amount was directly linked to how much they'd cared about the franchise entries before it.

 

[Arde5643]

I don't buy for a second someone's claim that FFVII wasn't part of a 'veteran series'.

Compare the differences between FFVI and FFVII as well as the gaming landscape at the time.

And please compare the differences between FFXII and FFXIII as well as the current gaming landscape.

 

[Weisheit]

PSP slim

Not referring specifically to you, but, man, I love how the roles get reversed. Last year
Sony fans were saying "No, no, no Nintendo fans, there's no relation between the HH market and the console market. None whatsoever, completely different."

 

[Private Hoffman]

Compare the differences between FFVI and FFVII as well as the gaming landscape at the time.

And please compare the differences between FFXII and FFXIII as well as the current gaming landscape.

What does that have to do with whether or not FFVII was a part of a veteran series that everyone was anticipating? Just because it's on a different hardware manufacturer than it has traditionally been on doesn't change that fact.

 

[[Nintex]]

Not referring specifically to you, but, man, I love how the roles get reversed. Last year
Sony fans were saying "No, no, no Nintendo fans, there's no relation between the HH market and the console market. None whatsoever, completely different."

Well actually there isn't just look at how different the Wii and DS software is. Nintendo lost software support with the GameCube and got more third parties aboard the GBA at the same time. SEGA's handhelds were never succesfull but they were very competitive with the Genesis against the SNES.

What does that have to do with whether or not FFVII was a part of a veteran series that everyone was anticipating? Just because it's on a different hardware manufacturer than it has traditionally been on doesn't change that fact.

FFVII was a reboot for the series, from popular NES/SNES RPG series to a mainstream mass market "cool" Playstation game.

 

[charlequin]

To be fair, he did mention both FF13 and PS3 Slim, not just FF13.

I think the importance of a "PS3 slim" is overrated. Slim models present a difference in functionality for handhelds, and are pretty much always relevant to every user; slimness is only a factor in consoles for people who don't have enough room for the larger version.

Today it doesnt look like that the PS3 situation will change, i agree to that, but what will happend in the future is anyone's guess.

True, but what we have room to discuss is the factors in place today. Based on what we know of console history and what we know about the near future, there's no reason to believe FFXIII will spearhead a sea change in PS3's performance rather than simply be a solid software performer that heralds a temporary hardware bump. Looking at the situation rationally calls for one to expect the likely to occur, and to do so with increasing strength the lower the variability on the prediction of said likelihood is.

Correct me if i'm wrong, but i think that Private Hoffman used the "you're wrong about the MGS4 sales" comment to prove that people can be wrong about what will happend.

Yes, but it's not a tremendously relevant event unless your goal is to establish that Sales Age is unable to predict effectively for areas in which you have an agenda to push. People's long-term predictions on MGS4 stretching back some ways before its release ("It won't do as well as previous entries and definitely won't hit a million") were pretty accurate. It surprised a lot of people by opening very strongly and showing that the MGS fanbase is much more dedicated than people expected, but it's not like that one circumstance is some kind of "proof" that sales analysis is built on a house of cards or something.

 

[Arde5643]

What does that have to do with whether or not FFVII was a part of a veteran series that everyone was anticipating? Just because it's on a different hardware manufacturer than it has traditionally been on doesn't change that fact.

FFVII not only got the old fanbase, but also captured a new market, a market that never played the old 2D Final Fantasy series at all.
FFVII was also on the most popular console at the time.

FFXIII is no different at all from previous 3D FFXII, only better looking - by definition, this means their fanbase is limited to the fanbase of previous 3D Final Fantasy series.
FFXIII is also on the less popular console this time.

If you can't even see this really obvious difference, it's kinda hard to take you even a bit seriously.

 

[Pureauthor]

What does that have to do with whether or not FFVII was a part of a veteran series that everyone was anticipating?

'Everyone'?

Final Fantasy was always a relatively niche game in America, and a high-average tier franchise in Japan - until Final Fantasy VII.

Just because it's on a different hardware manufacturer than it has traditionally been on doesn't change that fact.

The hardware manufacturer's role in this was singular - disc-based format as opposed to cartridges. That was it. Aside from that Final Fantasy VII was a massive departure from the previous Final Fantasies in the eyes of many - there is a reason a good number of people think that the later Final Fantasies are nowhere as good as the old ones and it isn't (always) because they're Nintendo fanboys.

Personally I feel FFVII was really the culmination of what FFIV and FFVI was aiming for, but those two games were more 'baby steps' as opposed to the huge leap to FFVII. The 'darker and edgier' setting (which made a mild showing in FFVI) was played up to the hilt. The massive use of FMV to make the game look really good didn't hurt either.

 

[solid2snake]

FFVII not only got the old fanbase, but also captured a new market, a market that never played the old 2D Final Fantasy series at all.
FFVII was also on the most popular console at the time.

FFXIII is no different at all from previous 3D FFXII, only better looking - by definition, this means their fanbase is limited to the fanbase of previous 3D Final Fantasy series.
FFXIII is also on the less popular console this time.

If you can't even see this really obvious difference, it's kinda hard to take you even a bit seriously.

but but it's both times on a Sony console
they should port FFXIII with the old XII engine to PSP damn it. suck this MS!

 

[Thunder Monkey]

FFVII not only got the old fanbase, but also captured a new market, a market that never played the old 2D Final Fantasy series at all.
FFVII was also on the most popular console at the time.

FFXIII is no different at all from previous 3D FFXII, only better looking - by definition, this means their fanbase is limited to the fanbase of previous 3D Final Fantasy series.
FFXIII is also on the less popular console this time.

If you can't even see this really obvious difference, it's kinda hard to take you even a bit seriously.

Oh come on. He's got a flying high kind of attitude with dreams of butterscotch and unicorns, but it's not like the man is dumb.

I hope I fill enough of that void for everyone.

It's okay Hoffman. I may think you're batshit insane sometimes, but you at least give me something to read and get angry about without pissing me off. You can still be my friend.

Arde too. Then we can all have fun in the land of rainbows and fluttery things.

 

[Private Hoffman]

FFVII not only got the old fanbase, but also captured a new market, a market that never played the old 2D Final Fantasy series at all.
FFVII was also on the most popular console at the time.

FFXIII is no different at all from previous 3D FFXII, only better looking - by definition, this means their fanbase is limited to the fanbase of previous 3D Final Fantasy series.
FFXIII is also on the less popular console this time.

If you can't even see this really obvious difference, it's kinda hard to take you even a bit seriously.

FFVII's greatest impact was on western markets and broadening appeal over in the states and in europe.

FFVII is no different from the previous FF games except it had prettier graphics. The core gameplay is exactly the same. Better production values, better graphics, more cinematic...Wow, that's exactly what FFXIII is compared to FFXII.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Not referring specifically to you, but, man, I love how the roles get reversed. Last year
Sony fans were saying "No, no, no Nintendo fans, there's no relation between the HH market and the console market. None whatsoever, completely different."

Just givin' answers to questions here. I've clearly no love for fanboys of any stripe.

 

[solid2snake]

FFVII's greatest impact was on western markets and broadening appeal over in the states and in europe.

FFVII is no different from the previous FF games except it had prettier graphics. The core gameplay is exactly the same. Better production values, better graphics, more cinematic...Wow, that's exactly what FFXIII is compared to FFXII.

 

[charlequin]

What does that have to do with whether or not FFVII was a part of a veteran series that everyone was anticipating?

Final Fantasy VII was a dramatic reinvention of the series, in much the same way that GTA3 was -- it used new technology to utterly reinvent itself and created a paradigm shift in the franchise, the entire genre, and the console war. It's straightforward to see that FFXIII does not, in fact, represent a similar paradigm shift.

 

[gantz85]

Yes, but it's not a tremendously relevant event unless your goal is to establish that Sales Age is unable to predict effectively for areas in which you have an agenda to push. People's long-term predictions on MGS4 stretching back some ways before its release ("It won't do as well as previous entries and definitely won't hit a million") were pretty accurate. It surprised a lot of people by opening very strongly and showing that the MGS fanbase is much more dedicated than people expected, but it's not like that one circumstance is some kind of "proof" that sales analysis is built on a house of cards or something.

I don't think this is fair.

Alot of sales-age posters were saying that it won't even do remotely nearly as well as its predecessors, and VERY FEW came close to anything like 600K sales predictions. Also, MGS4 will continue to sell here and there and might reach something like 650K, 680K in sales for LTD in 12 months from now. Quoting "It won't do as well as previous entries and definitely won't hit a million" is a cop-out, because none of the MGS skus have ever crossed a million on its own, and no one with sense actually predicted a million. I'm not going to say I'm accurate just because I predicted Bioshock is not selling 3 billion copies.

In short, I think MGS4 out performed most sales-age expectations.



As for PS3 Slim, unless Japanese users have a high emphasis on aesthetic for their consoles, I think the slim factor in and of itself will not contribute a lot but hardcores will be looking to replace their current sets and there will be plenty of cheap 2nd hand PS3s on the market which will spike sales as well. Sony can use this as a marketing opportunity to promote release-synchronized software, various PS3 initiatives, and more. The Slim in and of itself as a sole factor may not weigh much, but the opportunity it brings could be priceless for Sony.

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

To be honest the Sony fans are the only thing keeping M/C threads interesting lately. I see no reason to scare them all off with all this quibbling over facts and whatnot.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

To be honest the Sony fans are the only thing keeping M/C threads interesting lately. I see no reason to scare them all off with all this quibbling over facts and whatnot.

It's a fine line. They're only making the threads interesting cuz the regulars beat them with the logic stick until they leave or get banned.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

To be honest the Sony fans are the only thing keeping M/C threads interesting lately. I see no reason to scare them all off with all this quibbling over facts and whatnot.

Exactly.

I could read page after page of Sony fans posting and Segata destroying their dreams in a blaze of blood and fire.

 

[solid2snake]

Exactly.

I could read page after page of Sony fans posting and Segata destroying their dreams in a blaze of blood and fire.

it was the only reason, why i bookmarked the FFXIII 360 thread form the E3 back then. pure comedy gold.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

it was the only reason, why i bookmarked the FFXIII 360 thread form the E3 back then. pure comedy gold.

*cough* I did the same thing. *cough*

No offense, but who didn't see that one coming from a million miles away?

 

[solid2snake]

*cough* I did the same thing. *cough*

No offense, but who didn't see that one coming from a million miles away?

i could name a group of hardcore fans, but i leave it

 

[Arde5643]

it was the only reason, why i bookmarked the FFXIII 360 thread form the E3 back then. pure comedy gold.

Oh god, that was pure insane hilarity, oh yes it was. :lol

Is it in the archives section?

 

[charlequin]

Not referring specifically to you, but, man, I love how the roles get reversed. Last year
Sony fans were saying "No, no, no Nintendo fans, there's no relation between the HH market and the console market. None whatsoever, completely different."

I've always thought both ends of that argument were probably too strident. Handhelds are a lot more like consoles than those who want to wall off success in either market from the other would prefer things to be, but there are factors

FFVII's greatest impact was on western markets and broadening appeal over in the states and in europe.

Digging up the exact numbers might have to wait for later, but FFVII did something like twice the LTD sales of its predecessor in Japan. It only had a larger impact in America because the jump from "niche series" to "ultra-blockbuster" is bigger than that from "successful series" to "ultra-blockbuster."

FFVII is no different from the previous FF games except it had prettier graphics.

Calling this shift "prettier graphics" is nothing short of disingenuous. Final Fantasy VII took a series (and genre) that had always been story-oriented and took the presentation and framing of that storytelling to an unprecedented level. It's a much huger leap than simply "prettier" -- it made a leap from abstract representation (where everything in the SNES FFs was drawn out on essentially the same 2D tile grid and story events were shown through simple animations and text) to concrete representation (with story FMVs that could show exactly what was happening in the world, and represent things like the Weapons, the Sister Ray gun, and the city of Midgar with scope that would have been impossible to convey on SNES.)

Anyone who was around for the introduction of FFVII is aware of the scope of its impact and the reasons why it's a completely different case from FFXIII are quite clear.

 

[Pureauthor]

*cough* I did the same thing. *cough*

No offense, but who didn't see that one coming from a million miles away?

Given the response? Quite a few people.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Given the response? Quite a few people.

Crazies are the outliers.

I personally expected the announcement to come a year earlier though. In this generation, or more specifically in the HD generation thinking that nonmoneyhatted 3rd party games will stay exclusive is just crazy.

 

[charlequin]

In short, I think MGS4 out performed most sales-age expectations.

It unquestionably did, and I think it's basically a result of wrong expectations about the MGS fanbase (or giving the game's status as a PS3 title more credit than its status as an MGS game).

What annoys me is how this is now a piece of ammo for people with totally left-field position to trot out in order to generally and categorically discredit Sales-Age. I don't think that's a reasonable conclusion to draw from that instance and I think it's getting brought up as a general slam (rather than as a contextual cautionary note like "don't underestimate the fanbase of hardcore series X, they might provide a bigger opening week than you're guessing just like MGS4") by people who are dipping in to try to score points in Sales-Age threads rather than by people who are actually invested in discussing sales as an end to itself.

 

[gantz85]

It unquestionably did, and I think it's basically a result of wrong expectations about the MGS fanbase (or giving the game's status as a PS3 title more credit than its status as an MGS game).

What annoys me is how this is now a piece of ammo for people with totally left-field position to trot out in order to generally and categorically discredit Sales-Age. I don't think that's a reasonable conclusion to draw from that instance and I think it's getting brought up as a general slam (rather than as a contextual cautionary note like "don't underestimate the fanbase of hardcore series X, they might provide a bigger opening week than you're guessing just like MGS4") by people who are dipping in to try to score points in Sales-Age threads rather than by people who are actually invested in discussing sales as an end to itself.

Your complaint stems from the nature of Neogaf though; look at the posters prior to you -- the condescending mockage is but nature to GAF. Fanboys stick to their tribal relationships but plenty of pseudo-intellectuals like to pretend they're away from it all and treat the fanboys like rubbish. These sorts of essentially adversarial relationships in GAF make posters regard it as a piece of "ammo" for people against sales-age and the fact that some sales-age posters should care as well means that the relations are recognized. It's not as if sales-age is entirely neutral; there's plenty of bits of commentary here and there at minimum and many of them take delight in this or that and not just purely analytical number churning and forecasting.

More than sales I would like to talk about marketing though.. or more generally the strategic planning and placement that companies can use to improve sales. However all these are essentially useless speculation just to dabble in :lol I guess my time is misused..

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

MGS4 did much better than most expected. And regardless of one unexpectedly large title, PS3 is back to 10K. I'd say that's better evidence against known-game bumps causing long-term hardware changes than toward reasoning of "Since the unexpected can happen, the specific unexpected event I tout is no longer unlikely."

 

[onipex]

MGS4 did much better than most expected. And regardless of one unexpectedly large title, PS3 is back to 10K. I'd say that's better evidence against known-game bumps causing long-term hardware changes than toward reasoning of "Since the unexpected can happen, the specific unexpected event I tout is no longer unlikely."

I still have hope that the PS3 will have a turn around like the PSP, but I know it is not written in stone. People were quick to write off the Nintendo fans saying the Wii will follow the same path as the DS too.

 

[Count Dookkake]

MGS4 did much better than most expected. And regardless of one unexpectedly large title, PS3 is back to 10K. I'd say that's better evidence against known-game bumps causing long-term hardware changes than toward reasoning of "Since the unexpected can happen, the specific unexpected event I tout is no longer unlikely."

But unfounded hope is funny.

 

[noonche]

As for PS3 Slim, unless Japanese users have a high emphasis on aesthetic for their consoles, I think the slim factor in and of itself will not contribute a lot but hardcores will be looking to replace their current sets and there will be plenty of cheap 2nd hand PS3s on the market which will spike sales as well. Sony can use this as a marketing opportunity to promote release-synchronized software, various PS3 initiatives, and more. The Slim in and of itself as a sole factor may not weigh much, but the opportunity it brings could be priceless for Sony.

I think this is worth expounding on for a minute. The main advantage of a re-design, is that it effectively re-orients the media's attention on your device. Not just the gaming press, but everyone covered the DS-Lite and Slim-PSP launches. This draws your device attention from everyone. You'll get a second chance with people whose attention you wouldn't have been able to get with a big game release because they don't read gaming media or are a part of the community.

 

[ElFly]

So, how did demos of Final Fantasy games perform before?

Apparently Tobal 1 sold 650K copies, and that could be pinned on the FF7 demo. I think there was a FF8 demo too, but can't find it.

I guess that the FF13 demo sales would be a good gauge for the title's performance. Will Media Create even track Advent Children's rerelease?

 

[Man God]

I don't get where this PS3 will have a PSP like turnaround bit even comes from.

The PSP was never as constantly low in sales as the PS3 is.

The FF VIII demo was packaged with Brave Fencer I believe.

 

[Jocchan]

What annoys me is how this is now a piece of ammo for people with totally left-field position to trot out in order to generally and categorically discredit Sales-Age.

Actually, I think this can be a good indicator of a poster's degree of knowledge about the Japanese market. If you read someone using this argument, you automatically know he's totally clueless.

 

[test_account]

I think the importance of a "PS3 slim" is overrated. Slim models present a difference in functionality for handhelds, and are pretty much always relevant to every user; slimness is only a factor in consoles for people who don't have enough room for the larger version.

When it comes to the PS3 slim alone i do agree that i dont think it would do wonders for the PS3 sales. A PS3 slim at PS3's currrent price (34.995 yen or something, right?) probably wouldnt sell that much more compared to the current PS3, atleast that is what i think, but with a new and a lower price + a PS3 slim, then i think The PS3 could sell more hardware and software. Better than 10k PS3 consoles a week atleast.

True, but what we have room to discuss is the factors in place today. Based on what we know of console history and what we know about the near future, there's no reason to believe FFXIII will spearhead a sea change in PS3's performance rather than simply be a solid software performer that heralds a temporary hardware bump. Looking at the situation rationally calls for one to expect the likely to occur, and to do so with increasing strength the lower the variability on the prediction of said likelihood is.

I agree to what you say about the near future, but i guess it depends on how you define "near future". If a big titled PS3 game would to be released in i.e 2 months from now, then i think it would probably sell relatively like the previous big titled PS3 games, something like 300k + - (totally depending on which game it is). But if we talk about the situation in 1-2 years from now, then things might be different than what they are today.

If the situation is just like it is today when FF13 is being released, then i would also say that FF13 would most likely just give the PS3 a temorary bump in hardware sales, but i wouldnt rule out that the PS3 situation might have changed for the better (not necessarily alot for the better, but alittle better atleast) like 1-2 years from now.

Yes, but it's not a tremendously relevant event unless your goal is to establish that Sales Age is unable to predict effectively for areas in which you have an agenda to push. People's long-term predictions on MGS4 stretching back some ways before its release ("It won't do as well as previous entries and definitely won't hit a million") were pretty accurate. It surprised a lot of people by opening very strongly and showing that the MGS fanbase is much more dedicated than people expected, but it's not like that one circumstance is some kind of "proof" that sales analysis is built on a house of cards or something.

I'm not saying that the current sale ages predictions are built on a house of cards or something like that, or that the predictions are taken out from thin air (i dont think that you're accusing me of saying this, but i just wanted to point it out that this isnt what i mean anyway ). As i wrote earlier in this post, if a PS3 game should be released in i.e 2 months, using today's sales data you might probably be able to predict relatively close to how this game would preform.

Using data from previous games in a serie can also make people's prediction pretty close. Just to take an example, Fatal Frame 4 for the Wii, it preformed relatively like the previous Fatal Frame games if i'm not mistaken. If we havnt had any idea about how many copies the previous Fatal Frame games had sold it might be much much harder to predict a close/ballpark figure on what Fatal Frame 4 would do.

So i'm not saying that looking at previous sales data is totally useless. I'm just saying that looking at previous data and how the situation is might now be static all the time, it can change and people can be wrong with their predictions (there is nothing wrong with that in my opinion). The console market can change in the future, and looking at previous sales data today might not reflect on how the situation is in, lets say about 2 years.


Metal Gear Solid 4 didnt sell as well as MGS 2 and 3, thats true indeed, and some people did indeed say that MGS 4 wouldnt give a long time boost in the PS3 hardware sales, and that turned out to be true as well. They probably "knew"/predicted this by looking at the previous sales data around the PS3, and they predictions turned out to be right because of this. So previous sales data is clearly relaltive and very good to have in some cases

But as you say, the 1st week sales of MGS4 suprised people. I dont think many people here thought it would preform that well. If i should guess, the main reason why people thought MGS 4 wouldnt do this well was because they looked on how the previous big titled games had sold on PS3, atleast on the first week of sales. If i remember right, there were some comments like "are you expecting MGS 4 to sell more in its first week than any other PS3 games has done in their lifetime?". It kinda seemed "impossible" (or what i shall say) that MGS 4 would sell what it did in the first week based on previous sales data on PS3 games. Looking at previous sales data might not always turn out simular when a new game gets released, if you know what i mean


And i must just underline, i'm not talking crap about sales ages or previous data or anything, and i'm not saying that previous sales data is usless or not relative at all, i hope what i write isnt understood like that, because that is not what i'm saying at all! Looking at previous sales data can in many cases indeed be a good way to make a prediction more likely to happend the way it is predictied

I really like sale numbers, i really like to see how things are selling, especially when it comes to sale numbers for videogames and systems I am very greatful that some people archive all this sales data and makes it accessible to people. So i want to say thanks alot to everyone who archive the sales data and does it accessible to people, thanks!!!

 

[Lightning]

So, how did demos of Final Fantasy games perform before?

Apparently Tobal 1 sold 650K copies, and that could be pinned on the FF7 demo. I think there was a FF8 demo too, but can't find it.

I guess that the FF13 demo sales would be a good gauge for the title's performance. Will Media Create even track Advent Children's rerelease?

I really don't think that a rerelease of a crappy movie will be a indication of anything. This is nothing more than a stupid marketing ploy from Square Enix to push sales of this BS movie of theirs.

 

[Parmenides]

Yes, I'm really more interested in a discussion about the possible kind of strategic planning that Sony has to put in place in order to bring about a better performance for PS3 in Japan rather than continually slamming Sony for its performance the past 18 months.

I´m an avid gamer since before Pac-Man and Galaxian while I know(and love) a little bit the financial environment.I will try to explain what they´re(Sony) thinking and,of course,I´m not wasting my time forecasting sales or arguing with people.Do you think PS3 is dead?No problem,I don´t own a PS3.



Sony,according to Kaz Hirai,needs to accelerate cost reductions.They always talk about the importance of reducing production cost in order to cut prices,as Hirai thinks PS3 price is a barrier to entry.

1) Price reduction.If everything goes according to plan in Sonyland,PS3 will sell for ¥20,000-25,000 later next year


Hirai has said that price reductions work,once you have a sustained release of software.They need to enhace their lineup and they´re aware of that.

2) Capcom,Bandai Namco,Square-Enix and Sony will release good software early next year.Sony is looking forward to March 2009S3+FF demo,Resident Evil and (maybe) WKS


PS3 needs blockbusters.Resident,Tekken and friends will sell well,but Sony knows that PS3´s fate depends on Final Fantasy,Gran Turismo and Winning Eleven(*)

3)PS3´s heavy hitters will be released later next year (Final Fantasy,Gran Turismo and Winning Eleven)



(*)- According to PD,Gran Turismo 3 sold 1.89 million units;Gran Turismo 4 sold 1.25 million units.

-According to Famitsu Winning Eleven 2008 (PS2) sold 658,467 units;Winning Eleven 2008 (PS3) sold 275,069 units.Of course PS2 cannibalized WE(PS3) sales.