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[donny2112]

1. Final Fantasy will sell 4x what MGS4 did in Japan.

FFXII didn't sell 4x MGS4's numbers in Japan, so FFXIII doesn't have a snowball's chance in heck of doing so.

 

[solid2snake]

nice to see that the PSP lives finally. screw the PS3, give me more awesome PSP titles.

 

[Weisheit]

1. It'll sell in the area of 2 - 2.5 million units when it's all said and done, yes. Userbase doesn't necessarily have much to do with the potential of a series like this. FFXII sold like 2.4 million after its first 2 weeks, while FFX sold even better with a smaller userbase, I believe. People said MGS4 would never sell as well as it ended up doing. FF is a hardcore series. The fans will come out and buy it upon release.

2. Seems overplayed? Maybe, maybe not. Given that theres not much software to influence them to buy a PS3, and its still costly, I'm sure many are content to wait for a revision.

3. Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Kingdom Hearts, GT5....some of these titles may never come out on the PS3, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're on the platform a few years down the line after a game like FFXIII has boosted PS3 sales and introduced a new sense of life into the platform.

:lol

 

[Firestorm]

Ah right forgot it's exclusive in Japan still.

 

[donny2112]

after a game like FFXIII has boosted PS3 sales and introduced a new sense of life into the platform.

The phrase you're looking for is "last gasp of life."

 

[Private Hoffman]

FFXII didn't sell 4x MGS4's numbers in Japan, so FFXIII doesn't have a snowball's chance in heck of doing so.

Actually, FFXII did sell 4x MGS4's numbers in Japan.

"Final Fantasy XII sold more than 1,764,000 copies in its first week in Japan, almost equaling the sales of Final Fantasy X in its first week.[104] The total number of copies sold stood at 2,150,671 after five weeks of release.[105] A Square Enix conference report stated that Final Fantasy XII sold more than 2.38 million copies in Japan in the two weeks since its March 16, 2006 release.[5] In North America, Final Fantasy XII shipped approximately 1.5 million copies in its first week.[106] On the seventh anniversary of the PlayStation 2 in the U.S. (October 2007), Final Fantasy XII was listed as the tenth best selling game for the PS2.[107]"

The phrase you're looking for is "last gasp of life."

Okay, are you just trolling now? It seems like some people here want the PS3 to stay dead.

 

[botticus]

:lol

Mario is also a big hit in Japan, that would be a big help for the PS3.

 

[ElFly]

hahaha, Gran Turismo 5 not coming to the PS3 would be funny.

 

[solid2snake]

:lol

he meant spin-offs. like Monster Hunter: Vice City or Dragon Quest: Sudoku. lulz.

 

[thestopsign]

1. Final Fantasy will sell 4x what MGS4 did in Japan. Is it enough to change the tide? Not necessarily; but coupled with a PS3 slim, a pricedrop, and other software to accompany it in the future, I'd say that it is. It's not a single factor, but it is an important one.

2. PSP was never as expensive as the PS3, nor as big. Americans may not care how big a console is, but Japanese tastes may be different...and the PS3 is ridiculously large from what they're used to with consoles.

3. Most major franchises have already been released? Ehh...I don't think so. There's a lot of games that have been on the PS2 and haven't come out yet on the PS3, and none nearly as big as say a FF title or a DQ title.

4. Yeah, this holiday I don't think will change many minds in Japan. There's not a whole lot in the pipeline for this year.

Overall, I'm not saying the PS3 will necessarily start selling 50-60k, but I can see it doing more like 40k a week after the FF bump occurs, which is still a huge improvement over where it is now.

But, we'll just have to wait and see. Right now this is just a whole lot of speculation.

You'll be wrong. If you knew anything about Japanese buying habits or how Final Fantasy actually sells in Japan, you would agree with me too. Every Sales-Age person here will vouch for me here. You'll be wrong, trust us.

 

[schuelma]

3. Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Kingdom Hearts, GT5....some of these titles may never come out on the PS3, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're on the platform a few years down the line after a game like FFXIII has boosted PS3 sales and introduced a new sense of life into the platform.

No no no no no. Monster Hunter 3 is a Wii exclusive after it was CANCELLED for the PS3. Dragon Quest will not come out on PS3. Never. Probably not even a spin off. Kingdom Hearts..I think it's unlikely, but you can't discount Nomura lovin his PS3.

But, let's just assume you're correct and FF13 awakens the inherent Sony love present in every Japanese videogame player. So it's released Fall 2009. Then 3rd parties, after seeing the amazing and incredible sales jump, are now going to start developing expensive, hi def PS3 exclusive projects to take advantage of the incredibly growing PS3 userbase. Even if all this comes true, those games wouldn't be out until like 2011 or 2012.

Do you realize how unlikely this all sounds?

 

[donny2112]

Actually, FFXII did sell 4x MGS4's numbers in Japan.

No, it didn't.

It seems like some people here want the PS3 to stay dead.

It's not dead. However it, by definition, cannot have a PSP-like sales resurgence due to games, since PSP's sales resurgence is not due to store-bought games.

 

[dolemite]

Do we know what the shipment number is for Vesperia and its bundle?

 

[Private Hoffman]

No, it didn't.



It's not dead. However it, by definition, cannot have a PSP-like sales resurgence due to games, since PSP's sales resurgence is not due to store-bought games.

According to those figures I grabbed from wikipedia, it did.

As for your second comment; stupid. People could be pirating games or buying used copies. They still purchased the hardware for the games.

 

[Private Hoffman]

You'll be wrong. If you knew anything about Japanese buying habits or how Final Fantasy actually sells in Japan, you would agree with me too. Every Sales-Age person here will vouch for me here. You'll be wrong, trust us.

Okay, and sales age was wrong about MGS4.

Sales age is very knee jerk. Grab that title wave and say things will never change.

 

[donny2112]

According to those figures I grabbed from wikipedia, it did.

Then you're just ignorant of FFXII and MGS4's current LTDs in Japan.

They still purchased the hardware for the games.

When the 1-Seg Tuner was sold with every third PSP Slim purchase at launch, every on-the-ground report says that about the only game being seen being played on PSPs is Monster Hunter Portable 2 G, and the tie ratio has stagnated/dropped since the Slim's release, the concept that the hardware was bought for games is very much wrong.

 

[FrankT]

hahaha, Gran Turismo 5 not coming to the PS3 would be funny.

Kazunori Yamauchi: Of course after this next update, we're going to have another update later on in the year. There's no plans in the works for GT5 yet - that might be 2009,or it might be 2010... But we're totally focused on getting the updates through for Gran Turismo 5 Prologue, and that's all we're focused on.

http://uk.ps3.ign.com/articles/891/891903p1.html

Well the way this sounds it's not really even in prodcution mode yet as they are focused on GTP DLC, but 2010 I would say maybe.

Okay, and sales age was wrong about MGS4.

Sales age is very knee jerk. Grab that title wave and say things will never change.

Last time I remember level headed Sales Agers stated MGS4 would cause a bump and be back to normal after about a month or so. Seems to be exactly the case to me at this point.

 

[Johann]

1. Final Fantasy will sell 4x what MGS4 did in Japan. Is it enough to change the tide? Not necessarily; but coupled with a PS3 slim, a pricedrop, and other software to accompany it in the future, I'd say that it is. It's not a single factor, but it is an important one.

2. PSP was never as expensive as the PS3, nor as big. Americans may not care how big a console is, but Japanese tastes may be different...and the PS3 is ridiculously large from what they're used to with consoles.

3. Most major franchises have already been released? Ehh...I don't think so. There's a lot of games that have been on the PS2 and haven't come out yet on the PS3, and none nearly as big as say a FF title or a DQ title.

4. Yeah, this holiday I don't think will change many minds in Japan. There's not a whole lot in the pipeline for this year.

Overall, I'm not saying the PS3 will necessarily start selling 50-60k, but I can see it doing more like 40k a week after the FF bump occurs, which is still a huge improvement over where it is now.

But, we'll just have to wait and see. Right now this is just a whole lot of speculation.

Seriously, Japanese homes aren't dog houses despite popular belief. It's refrigerator and copious amounts of clothes that cause concern. Watch the Travel Channel (Bourdain is going to meet Iron Chef Morimoto!)

We're seeing a harrowing changing of the guard around the world. Lightning has not struck twice for many, many last-gen system sellers. We've seen many popular franchises have excellent sales, cause a significant sales bump (or a negative bump for GTA4) for a month, and cease. Instead, the torch was passed unto games such as Wii Sports and Wii Fit.

 

[Private Hoffman]

Then you're just ignorant of FFXII and MGS4's current LTDs in Japan.

Okay, I suppose Square is ignorant of their own LTD numbers, because that's the source.

When the 1-Seg Tuner was sold with every third PSP Slim purchase at launch, every on-the-ground report says that about the only game being seen being played on PSP's is Monster Hunter Portable 2 G, and the tie ratio has stagnated/dropped since the Slim's release, the concept that the hardware was bought for games is very much wrong.

Yes, of course, because obviously if a person buys a used copy or pirates a game, thus not contributing to software sales, when they pick up a PSP then that means they aren't buying a PSP for the games! Makes perfect sense.

 

[schuelma]

Last time I remember level headed Sales Agers stated MGS4 would cause a bump and be back to normal after about a month or so. Seems to be exactly the case to me at this point.

Many were definitely wrong about 1st week sales. Myself included. But as you note, basically everyone called the non permanent impact of the game.

 

[Private Hoffman]

http://uk.ps3.ign.com/articles/891/891903p1.html

Well the way this sounds it's not really even in prodcution mode yet as they are focused on GTP DLC, but 2010 I would say maybe.




Last time I remember level headed Sales Agers stated MGS4 would cause a bump and be back to normal after about a month or so. Seems to be exactly the case to me at this point.

Yeah, and there was only like one or two sales age persons that said MGS4 would sell around 450-500k, most saying it would sell half of that or less.

The one guy who defended his stance was laughed at by the sales age horde..

 

[ElFly]

http://uk.ps3.ign.com/articles/891/891903p1.html

Well the way this sounds it's not really even in prodcution mode yet as they are focused on GTP DLC, but 2010 I would say maybe.

yeah, I remember those interviews perfectly :lol

 

[Psychotext]

Okay, and sales age was wrong about MGS4.

A lot of people were saying a title with a hardcore fanbase such as MGS4 had a good chance to do really well... short term (and it has). The problem is that sequels to other previously high selling titles haven't done well, mostly because casuals aren't buying the PS3 in Japan and these titles appeal to mainly casuals (golf, football, fighting etc).

The question is whether FFXIII is a casual or hardcore title, and if its hardcore - are there enough fans to get the numbers people are throwing about?

 

[justchris]

3. Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Kingdom Hearts, GT5....some of these titles may never come out on the PS3, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're on the platform a few years down the line after a game like FFXIII has boosted PS3 sales and introduced a new sense of life into the platform.

Dragon Quest will never be on the PS3. Per Yuji Horii, Dragon Quest goes to the console with the highest install base, period. Unless you think the PS3 is going to shoot past the Wii sometime in the next 2 years, that's not something that's going to happen.

Monster Hunter is unlikely. MH3 is already slated for Wii in 2009, it's hard to say there'll be another one before the generation ends, but if there is, it'll probably be on the Wii where they already have the assests and engine for it.

We do know GT5 is coming, and KH is a definite possibility...eventually...someday...whenever Nomura gets a minute to work on it.

 

[schuelma]

Yeah, and there was only like one or two sales age persons that said MGS4 would sell around 450-500k, most saying it would sell half of that or less.

..

I don't think that's correct- I remember a fair amount of people saying it would hit 500K eventually. Most definitely got the 1st week's number wrong, but with where its going to finish (650K or so), many GAFer's weren't obscenely off.

 

[donny2112]

Okay, I suppose Square is ignorant of their own LTD numbers, because that's the source.

I should have given you the numbers instead of just saying you were ignorant. Sorry.

Famitsu:
FFXII - 2.32m
MGS4 - 622K (as of 7/27)

Media-Create:
FFXII - 2.25m

 

[legend166]

Private Hoffman's a Sony fanboy. He's been going around posting thinly veiled fanboy comments in sales threads for about a month now.

Pay him no attention.

 

[Private Hoffman]

I should have given you the numbers instead of just saying you were ignorant. Sorry.

Famitsu:
FFXII - 2.32m
MGS4 - 622K (as of 7/27)

Media-Create:
FFXII - 2.25m

So....3.7x instead of 4x.

BTW, FFXIII is a hardcore title IMO, will it do as well as the other PS2 FF games? Probably not, just like MGS4, but I imagine it will be slightly less.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Private Hoffman's a Sony fanboy. He's been going around posting thinly veiled fanboy comments in sales threads for about a month now.

Pay him no attention.

Come on. Media Create threads aren't that interesting lately but there is randomly a Sony fanboy that will come into the thread with a glimmer of hope in their eye for the PS3 to make this bad ass comeback in Japan that will show everyone just how right they were all along.

I love these posters, it keeps the JPN sales threads interesting.

 

[Liabe Brave]

So....3.7x instead of 4x.

donny2112 is also not including the Zodiac re-release of XII, which on Famitsu pops it up to 2.46 million. (Though to be fair, MGS4 is likely to also have a re-release, so maybe they cancel out.)

Still, I don't think FFXIII can get to 2.5 million when the installed base will only be about twice that when it releases. But 1 million? Even 1.5? Quite possible. In any case, a huge proportion of the base will buy it. But that's indicative of an unpopular system, not a popular one.

Any single game can't turn the tide; there are always other factors when a system undergoes a boost, and I don't believe we have much convincing evidence that they'll fall into place for PS3. You may end up right (for who indeed saw the PSP resuscitation coming?), but if so it'll be by accident. People predicting moribund PS3 sales in the years to come have more data on their side than you do.

 

[thestopsign]

What I don't get is the fact that he's trying to take a stand for the PS3 the week before it's going to be beaten by the 360.

 

[test_account]

Didnt some people say that the PSP would end up with an LTD around 6.5 million units sold when it was all said and done in Japan? Now the PSP is around 10 million units sold in Japan and its still selling relatively well each week.

Who knew/predicted that the PS3 would sell this little in Japan before the price was announced? Who knew/predicted that the Wii would sell this well in Japan before Wii controller was shown? I dont think that too many people knew/predicted that these things would happend.

The way things look right now, and in the near future, i agree to that it doesnt look like much will change in the console market (then i'm mostly thinking about the console hardware sales) in Japan, but we dont know what will happend in i.e 1-2 years from now.

I dont think its anything wrong with being wrong when it comes to predictions, but if someone is not saying that things wont change at all, i would then think that this is alittle bit of a bold statement (or what i shall say).

Also just to underline, i'm not saying that things will change, i say that things can change.


By the way, i dont think Private Hoffman's point in the discussion was to show a big turn in the console hardware sales, that the PS3 would outsell the Wii's LTD etc. This is something he wrote earlier in this thread:

Overall, I'm not saying the PS3 will necessarily start selling 50-60k, but I can see it doing more like 40k a week after the FF bump occurs, which is still a huge improvement over where it is now.

But, we'll just have to wait and see. Right now this is just a whole lot of speculation.

From what he said earlier it seems to me that his main point in this discussion was that the PS3 could improve its weekly sales in about 1 year from now. I think this is possible too. I dont know exactly how many PS3 consoles that would be sold each week though, but better than around 10k atleast. But it pretty much all depends on if a PS3 slim comes out and/or if the price gets reduced relatively much. We'll see what happends


EDIT: I see now that Liabe Brave already pointed out that who knew that the PSP would increase in preformance like it did when the PSP Slim was released

EDIT 2: I fixed a typo

 

[Jokeropia]

I dont think its anything wrong with being wrong when it comes to predictions, but if someone is noq saying that things wont change at all, i would then think that this is alittle bit of a bold statement (or what i shall say).

It's less bold than predicting that something will change. (Since it almost never does and even when it happens like with PSP it doesn't really make much difference overall.)

 

[Dash Kappei]

1) IMO 1.5 million for Final Fantasy XIII is a lock, however it'll not make quite the impact on hardware sales those many copies sold would led to believe; it reminds me of the Halo 3 situation... the kind of gamers the title will likely attract are already on board or will be from here to the day FF13 releases, everyone else will most likely sell the system back after having beaten the game.

2) Sony's lucky that X-Box360 is still burdened by the X-Box brand otherwise we'll be looking at a completely different picture, at the moment X360 boosts a games' library that is actually more suitable for Japan's tastes and the fact they're not "letting" Square release FFXIII for the 360 in Japan is another evidence that Sony could face a real threat that way.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

3. Most major franchises have already been released? Ehh...I don't think so. There's a lot of games that have been on the PS2 and haven't come out yet on the PS3, and none nearly as big as say a FF title or a DQ title.

The list of biggest PS2 franchises, in approximate order, would probably look something like
Dragon Quest
Final Fantasy
Gran Turismo
* Warriors
Kingdom Hearts
Winning Eleven
Hot Shots Golf
Onimusha
Metal Gear Solid

Overall, I'm not saying the PS3 will necessarily start selling 50-60k, but I can see it doing more like 40k a week after the FF bump occurs, which is still a huge improvement over where it is now.

Saying it will do only PS2/Wii numbers isn't holding back much, though.

Didnt some people say that the PSP would end up with an LTD around 6.5 million units sold when it was all said and done in Japan?

Somebody can be assured to voice almost any possibility around here. But a prediction of PSP ending at that point would have to be from maybe 3 years ago for me to think it at all serious. And at that time DS hadn't even showed its true eventual dominance.

 

[Loudninja]

Edit:NVM

 

[PantherLotus]

The trick is knowing the difference between a short-term impact and a long-term impact, and learning to recognize when one becomes the other.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So I just realized that in my regular weekly post from earlier I skipped over this part:

Wii comparisons: After 87 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 87.7 weeks (November 21, 2002), where DS was at 69.0 weeks (March 25, 2006), where PS2 was at 96.5 weeks (January 2, 2002), and where PSP was at 149.2 weeks (October 15, 2007).

Two notables in there are GBA and PS2; Wii has been losing its lead on them. Reason: holiday sales. You can see Wii's LTD currently matches with a GBA November and a PS2 early January, so they're in particularly hard-to-slog-through weeks. I imagine it breaks even with GBA next week.

 

[Arde5643]

Thanks much, JJ, PL, and donny for the wonderful charts and analysis.

 

[Narcosis]

Final Fantasy XIII will not reverse the PS3's standing in Japan, the only thing that would do that is if they created a portable PS3

 

[Pureauthor]

Final Fantasy XIII will not reverse the PS3's standing in Japan, the only thing that would do that is if they created a portable PS3

If it reversed the PS3's standing, it'd sink Sony further into the red. The RnD costs of squeezing PS3 level tech into anything vaguely portable would be ridiculous.

 

[Narcosis]

If it reversed the PS3's standing, it'd sink Sony further into the red. The RnD costs of squeezing PS3 level tech into anything vaguely portable would be ridiculous.

The very idea itself was intended to be ridiculous

 

[UntoldDreams]

What's with the PS3 hate-fest here?

You guys having fun? I mean Really?

*** By all means keep going. Its fascinating.

 

[Firestorm]

So....3.7x instead of 4x.

BTW, FFXIII is a hardcore title IMO, will it do as well as the other PS2 FF games? Probably not, just like MGS4, but I imagine it will be slightly less.

So you think that Final Fantasy XIII will sell the amount as Final Fantasy XII? Good luck with that theory.

 

[Katze mit Hut]

Luv u PatherLotus!
Thx for the charts and graphs!

 

[Arde5643]

What's with the PS3 hate-fest here?

You guys having fun? I mean Really?

*** By all means keep going. Its fascinating.

It seems that reality has a well-known bias against PS3.

 

[CorwinB]

Does anyone really think that PS3 Slim will change the fate of PS3 in Japan?

Yes. Delusional Sony fanboys do. "Wait for PS3 slim" is the new "Wait for FF13", which is the new "Wait for MGS4", which is the HD version of "Wait for Spaceworld".

How does aesthetic and size matter to the Japanese gaming consumer?

Not sure. Delusional Xbox fans used this excuse for the whole lot of last gen... The 360 is a nice improvement in terms of aesthetics over the Xbox 1, but visibly that didn't do the trick.

 

[Mr. Pointy]

FFXIII will probably do ~2 million.

I'm not going to say anything about how the PS3 will do.

 

[road2serfdom]

Wii 41K-----------------Grand Canyon---------------------PS3 9K---Silicon Valley---360 5K

 

[gantz85]

So you think that Final Fantasy XIII will sell the amount as Final Fantasy XII? Good luck with that theory.

I think it could, definitely.

The situation in Japan is certainly very curious, and I'd really like to see Sony CE take on their homeland market more seriously than before. They've really dropped the ball for JP game development this generation and it's very fascinating to see if they can do a U-turn. Any U-turn will take years given the development cycle of software, but I'm waiting to see what they do; unless they think they should give up on the JP market entirely this generation.