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Media Create Sales: 07/28 - 08/03
- Thread starter PantherLotus
- Start date
Phife Dawg
Member
Private Hoffman
(neutral)
Don't mention Sony sales to me: Imight will cry even more than that other guy
(neutral)
Don't mention Sony sales to me: I
gantz85 said:
It is not curious. PS2 was de facto platform for most japanese games in 2001. Now, this market is divided in DS/PSP/PS2/Wii/PS3 and mobile phones. DS is the de facto platform for most japanese oriented games like RPG, unlike you found yourself like MS did. Sony internal culture is not ready to fight for exclusives, they were so used to get everything by default, which is the case for DS now. They are in the same position as Nintendo in 95, where all their RPG/Japanese portfolio doed overnight.
justchris said:
KH is very far in the the future looking at the recent PSP show. Square is putting a lot of games recently on many platforms, many having more production values than many ps2 games. For example, Agito XIII coming on PSP has most likely boosted his budget and team size. Same for PE3.
donny2112 said:
If you consider the weekly top 100 as the total market you will be surprised when you see that the top 500 captures more than 100 % of the market. Fact is that the top 100 only contains ~80% of total sales depending on week. If a big game is released, then it's higher of course.
In 2007 the top 500 included 67,539,900 units while the 52 top 100 charts summed up to 63,324,475. Thankfully, Dengeki provided total software (and hardware) numbers for the year. According to them, total software sales were 81,700,000. This might be the closest we get to the Media Create number, but my guess is that it's a little too high. This guess is based on data showing that total Dengeki software sales always are higher than corresponding Famitsu numbers. (If Dengeki is very high compared to Famitsu, it's unlikely that Media Create is even higher)
Paracelsus
Member
I wonder if they can afford such a massive pricedrop because it's being made in a country where nobody buys PS3s <_<
JoshuaJSlone
Member
That's a cheap PS3, but the apologetic penguin from 2007 was better.
donny2112 said:
It's not wrong if MHP2G is a game.
Ok, you said games as in more than one game. I don't know. But I do know that PSP software sales are much healthier now than a year ago.
Don't know if this has been shown, but here are the graphs for Powerful Pro Baseball Portable 1 (red), 2 (blue) and 3 (green). This is a beautiful example of the recovery.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Rock_Man said:
So this made me curious how different this year's PSP sales really were from last year's, other than the obvious of MHP2G. So I took the SQL that would normally be going on for a game search to find games released through July last year, and added the small twist to only consider known sales through that time, instead of the latest as we have them now. This means there are a few games released during that time that aren't included, as their sales data came later from things like Top 500 lists.
PSP January - July, 2007
PSP January - July, 2008
There is quite an improvement, and it would be even more marked if Famitsu was a bit quicker so this included Phantasy Star sales.
Phife Dawg
Member
There are also negative examples. HSG (red), HSG 2 (blue)Rock_Man said:
WE also had declining sales (although it did pick up a bit with the PSP relaunch): WE9 (blue), PES 2007 (red), PES 2008 (green)
Tales of Rebirth also did exceptionally bad since the relaunch (although not entirely fair since it's a port [although Eternia, Phantasia and Destiny 2 were too] and the Tales series seems to have issues nowadays): Eternia (red), Phantasia(blue), Destiny 2(green), Rebirth (black)
HSG and WE titles have huge broad appeal and the iterations in the series are much more comparable than a series like Tales of... So it's not a universal truth or a default benefit. I wouldn't use niche titles like VK, which remained pretty much flat as an example because those usually don't benefit that much from a boost in userbase. Bleach also remained flat but I don't think that Bleach has a huge appeal anymore so it basically sells to the same fanbase (Manga/Anime fans can maybe shed a better light).
JoshuaJSlone said:That's a cheap PS3, but the apologetic penguin from 2007 was better.
This picture is better in what way? I don't quite understand..
I wonder how price sensitive the JP consumers are towards the PS3 though. Is price that strong an entry barrier for them? There's a lack of compelling software to drive hardware sales and it's all a problem that stemmed from the launch; a whole slate of compelling first and third party games including RPG heavy weights should have been readied. Chicken and egg problems like hardware base vs. software development are usually less relevant then, and it's pretty much the biggest problem now for companies.
Now the only way I can see Sony pushing the PS3 forward significantly in JP (wait wait, the tards have to relax -- I don't think PS3 will ever overtake Wii in JP. I'm just saying overall "revival-esque" push) would be to prepare an onslaught of compelling Japan-centric first party software plus whatever third party key software they can muster and couple that with a renewed hardware + local marketing strategy. This could center around FFXIII's release next year but that would mean another 12 months of dismal sales and next-gen failure. I hope Shuhei Yoshida and Kaz Hiraii are paying attention to this:
(1) PS3 Slim - Aesthetics, weight, size factor goes up
(2) Pricing - Mass marketing pricing
(3) 1st Party Software - Team ICOlympic, GT5, ???
(4) 3rd Party Software - FFXIII, Tekken 6, ???
They need to develop a cohesive strategy which specifically targets the local Japanese market with content unavailable on other platforms. I don't know if they even have this in mind but I would hope to believe so, because losing JP developers in their stable of software was one of the biggest damaging factors to the PS3. If they have a plan, I really look forward to them rolling something out this TGS.
Again I'm not saying it will outperform the Wii, so you guys can relax.
Phife Dawg said:
I agree, though there were several years between the HSG games which makes the comparison less valid.
On a side note, the software support has remained constant in terms of quantity. In 2007 (through July) there were 54 new games released compared to 53 this year, not counting limited editions, budget releases and such. It'll be interesting to see if this number will increase next year.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
In that it's funny to have a penguin mascot apologizing to Sony that they needed to cut the price to move the thing.gantz85 said:
test_account
XP-39C²
I guess it all depends on how big of a change we are talking about. In the PS3 case, going from 10k a week to a steady 20k a week, or even 15k a week, is a change, even if its not really big.Jokeropia said:
What do you mean with "it doesn't make much difference overall"?
Thats true, but i have no idea who that made that prediction, and i cant recall seeing that prediction myself either, so i just asked by using the word "somebody"JoshuaJSlone said:
I'm not sure when or if this prediction was made either.Segata Sanshiro
Member
It amuses how little the average Sony knob-polisher knows about Japan, the Japanese, and the Japanese market.
Please continue holding your breath. I love watching your grubby little faces turn pink.
Please continue holding your breath. I love watching your grubby little faces turn pink.
Well I was basing it on it having a good Nov&Dec, where it has done over 100k before at the time when Blue Dragon came out. Not sure what it did last year between those two months. This year it has The Last Remnant, which could be bigger than BD, not to mention, Infinite Undiscovery before that. I think it will deffinitely do 700k.
Man, some of you pessimists will NEVER change (and you know who you are).
Why can't we all just want whats best for us as GAMERS?
I wish Nintendo the best with their DS, Wii, and future projects, and hope they make more games for the 'hardcore' crowd.
I wish Sony the best with their PSP, PS3, and future projects and hope that they give people more reasons to pick up their PS3 system and that they keep improving their relations with developers so more will support the PS3 with their games.
I wish Microsoft the best with their Xbox360 and other projects and hope they sell better in Japan.
Why can't we all just want whats best for us as GAMERS?
I wish Nintendo the best with their DS, Wii, and future projects, and hope they make more games for the 'hardcore' crowd.
I wish Sony the best with their PSP, PS3, and future projects and hope that they give people more reasons to pick up their PS3 system and that they keep improving their relations with developers so more will support the PS3 with their games.
I wish Microsoft the best with their Xbox360 and other projects and hope they sell better in Japan.
TheKingsCrown
Banned
Then you are not GAF quality poster. Please exit stage right. Guards will escort you off the premises.Fady K said:
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Because these threads aren't about hopes, dreams, and butterflies, Fady. It's a sales thread, and that means market analysis, and that means hurting some people's feelings with the probable outcomes.Fady K said:
You want to hold hands and sing folk songs about how great games are? Awesome, I love games too, but this isn't the thread for it.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
So in the past I've used a little Visual Basic program I made to cut down super-long Garaph URLs and put them into a form where they can be directly posted here as images. I put this online and have linked it a time or two, but I bet it's a very little group who's bothered to grab such a specialized tool. Well, I finally got around to making a web version, porting it to JavaScript, so it should be easily accessible to all. Tell me if something seems busted.
We can, but what we wish for and what we think will actually happen don't necessarily coincide. There's definitely room for interpreting the facts as suits one's wishes, but hopefully the more fact-based we stay the less that happens.Fady K said:
JoshuaJSlone said:
Of course, we have to be realistic too - but don't you think saying the PS3 isnt doing well in Japan is more accurate than saying its dead? I mean shifting 10,000 systems a week when rarely 1 hit comes out at all for a whole month - it doesn't sound right to call it dead in my opinion.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Rock_Man said:
1. Good eye, and thanks for noticing. It makes me realize that people are looking at specific things.
2. Added. See below.
3. Be careful taking too much heart in the 360 revival. We have to remember that the Console Market Share Line(s) are all directly related to the other two at the same time. For instance, this week, the PS3 went from 24.04% down to 24.00%. It lost .04% of market share in one week. Where did it go? This week, the Wii went up .02% and the 360 went up .02%.
4. The sales of the 360 are so low that them sneezing will make the line sneak upward. As PS3 approaches that next horror line, 5k per week, 360 can continue to sell close to nothing and gain on its own.
5. 360 Market Share Line 2008:
01/07/08 7.27%
01/14/08 7.21%
01/21/08 7.16%
01/28/08 7.10%
02/04/08 7.05%
02/11/08 6.99%
02/18/08 6.94%
02/25/08 6.90%
03/03/08 6.87%
03/10/08 6.83%
03/17/08 6.78%
03/24/08 6.75%
03/31/08 6.72%
04/07/08 6.69%
04/14/08 6.66%
04/21/08 6.63%
04/28/08 6.58%
05/05/08 6.54%
05/12/08 6.52%
05/19/08 6.50%
05/26/08 6.47%
06/02/08 6.46%
06/09/08 6.39%
06/16/08 6.37%
06/23/08 6.38%
06/30/08 6.39%
07/07/08 6.39%
07/14/08 6.40%
07/21/08 6.41%
07/28/08 6.43%
charlequin
Banned
Private Hoffman said:
This is wildly unlikely. MGS4 is unquestionably the biggest success story on PS3 in Japan, and it's reasonable to expect FFXIII to meet but not exceed that level of success -- which means around a 25% reduction in overall LTD sales.
But it also didn't match previous franchise performance; it came in well below the numbers of previous games, despite being a thundering success for a game on the PS3 platform.
That's... really not true. :lol
So your argument is that PS3 will succeed because of people buying it for all the franchises that will be announced for it after people start buying it?
(Also, no DQ game will ever be released on PS3. You can count on this series remaining DS/Wii exclusive for the life of the generation.)
...
Anyway, for anyone who wants to talk about console resurrection without a preconceived end in mind, this is my position on the matter:
- Consoles traditionall sell based on games. Each purchase decision is based on some modulated opinion of the games already out, games that have just been released the current week, and games that are due out in the future.
- For most systems, these are all vague variables at the start that become increasingly clear as the generation rolls on. At the beginning, all you have is "traditional" franchises for the brand and what's been announced pre-release; after a couple of years, what you've seen to date helps form a reasonable model of what's still to come.
- The success of a winning system is based on a feedback loop: better hardware sales cause more and better-funded games to be announced for the system, leading future buyers to see a stronger game future for the system.
- This means that you can't rely on future third-party announcements to "save" a console. If a game could be for the PS3, there's very little reason right now not to make it for the PS360. If a game could go anywhere, there's a significant pull to put it on the Wii, or the DS, or even the PSP. The quantity and quality of announced system exclusives will only go down, not up, if it is a poor performer in the marketplace.
- Because this cycle already takes into account expected future game releases, any new game that people know about and expect is not going to make a big difference; like stock prices, those games are already factored into performance.
- This means that to change the fortunes of an existing system, you can't rely on something well-worn. You need a disruptive strategy.
- DS applied this very effectively, early on in its life. It was selling at a mediocre pace, but unexpected hit software turned it into a monster.
- PSP applied this fairly effectively, midway through its life, through the combination of a hardware redesign and an unexpected hit software: Monster Hunter Portable. (Crisis Core had nothing to do with it.)
- These disruptions have a few things in common: they appeal to a different market than the system's previous base, they have a low buy-in (since they're trying to capture a new, untested market), they provide something that no one else in the market currently does, and they can only take you so far without a constant flood of support. (PSP's reinvention is less successful overall than DS's because the new target market is more limited and hasn't received as of yet as much software support as the DS did for its nongame market right out of the gate.)
- So what's this mean for PS3? Well, it's expensive and it has no obvious candidates for disruptive software on the horizon. Being a home console, it's harder for it to offer something that no competitor does than it was for the handheld systems (except BluRay playback, which is pretty much already factored into its currently level of success.) And it certainly suggests to me that FFXIII will have the exact same "solid software sales, small hardware bump" effect that MGS4 (and every previous "wait until...!" title) did.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Fady K said:
I think you're debating the difference of not on the market and dead. Think about it like this: if Sony wasn't selling those 9.8k units per week, they'd be gaining money.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
charlequin said:
This list needs to be posted in every sales-age locker room on the planet. Well done.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Jokeropia said:
I can't believe you responded to that.
charlequin
Banned
test_account said:
The issue is really less in what argument is being presented and more in what end it is being presented to serve. Private Hoffman's MO here is to run interference for Sony. If someone can't leave their biases at home and come to Sales-Age willing to accept and learn from events as they happen, they're arguing disingenuously and it sours the debate.
Hoffman's going about it in a more reasoned way than the standard "crazy poster of the week," but in the end his argument breaks down to a well-refuted base case ("FFXIII will save the PS3") that falls back to a defensive nuh-uh position ("well, you guys were wrong about MGS4 software sales!") The idea that PS3 could have an unexpected revival isn't tempered by a realistic understanding of what that would require, or of how unlikely such a thing is -- or, more specifically, of the fact that there are no good candidates for software or strategy changes on the horizon that might aid in such a revival.
With the PSP, a canny eye could have suggested a direction the system could take to tack towards greater success by noting MHP's early status as a breakout PSP hit that dramatically improved over its console counterpart. PS3 doesn't have an equivalent breakout hit yet, nor can I think of anything announced that could really qualify on the Japan side. (As much as I don't think LBP will be that breakout hit in the West, it's at least a reasonable candidate to propose for such a thing.)
charlequin said:
Very well written. I would just add that unexpected sofware hits are not easily predicted, so we can't really know if PS3 will have some. Even the developers usually aren't able to know if their software will be that kind of hit (except Nintendo lately, it seems).
test_account
XP-39C²
Thats true. I mentioned PS3 Slim and pricedrop earlier:Jokeropia said:
test_account said:
That is also true, Wii will sell most numbers of consoles in Japan this generation, PS3 will be on 2nd place and Xbox 360 will be on 3rd (maybe PS2 will sell more than Xbox 360, but i'm thinking mostly of the systems of this generation, and not from the last generation), there isnt much doubt about that, but it doesnt mean that things can change like they are right now. It depends on how you define "change". PS3 going from 10k to 15k each week is a change, Wii going from 50k to 60k a week is also a change etc. etc.Jokeropia said:
JoshuaJSlone
Member
What term we use is semantic. What's fact is that it's hanging out in the GCN hardware sales ranges, while lagging behind a bit in software. GCN itself was a fair step behind N64 and Saturn.Fady K said:
charlequin
Banned
Atreides said:
Well, to a certain degree we can at least identify candidates. Does a game offer something that's different from the titles already available on the system? Is it a new IP, or a series entry that offers something entirely new compared to previous entries in the same series? Does it have a unique selling point that can be summed up in a "high concept," single sentence pitch? Is there a new specific market that it's designed to appeal to? If so, it's probably a decent candidate to watch as a potential breakout hit.
(The answer to all four questions is "Yes" for both Monster Hunter Portable and Nintendogs; at least three of them are probably true of LBP in the US, but no to all four for FFXIII.)
Private Hoffman
Banned
It seems like you have a problem understanding my argument. I never said it would be a single factor that would increase the PS3's sales; I said it would be multiple factors that hopefully coincide simultaneously with the release of Final Fantasy XIII, and I think that if you believe Sony will continue selling at its current lows then that is a foolish position to take.
Yes, "Sales Age" is often wrong; often, current data will not predict shifts in trends in the future (obviously, or else there wouldn't be a shift). While yes, I concede that MGS4 currently is doing less well in Japan than its predecessors, it's still putting up very strong numbers when taking into account the userbase, and I feel that Final Fantasy XIII will easily follow this trend -- perhaps slightly less than previous installments, but still strong. Many people predicted it would be a much greater failure, and sales age nearly took some guy's head off for suggesting first week sales of 450+k....but it happened. Surely, Square's decision to support the Xbox 360 in western markets with FFXIII is partially a move to mitigate whatever loss in sales they expect in Japan and then some.
Some people are convinced that the PS3 will be forever doomed. I'm not suggesting it will ever start outselling the Wii, DS, or PSP anytime soon, all I'm saying is that it will have much better days than it is having right now. Currently, we know very little about the software landscape from late 2009 and beyond, much less how Sony structures the PS3 in terms of pricing and SKUs.
You cite MHP as a breakout title for the PSP, and to me that is Final Fantasy XIII on the PS3 (perhaps combined with GT5).
But again, this is all speculation. We'll see what happens in the future. I'm halfway inclined to bookmark this thread just in case what I'm saying comes to pass.
Yes, "Sales Age" is often wrong; often, current data will not predict shifts in trends in the future (obviously, or else there wouldn't be a shift). While yes, I concede that MGS4 currently is doing less well in Japan than its predecessors, it's still putting up very strong numbers when taking into account the userbase, and I feel that Final Fantasy XIII will easily follow this trend -- perhaps slightly less than previous installments, but still strong. Many people predicted it would be a much greater failure, and sales age nearly took some guy's head off for suggesting first week sales of 450+k....but it happened. Surely, Square's decision to support the Xbox 360 in western markets with FFXIII is partially a move to mitigate whatever loss in sales they expect in Japan and then some.
Some people are convinced that the PS3 will be forever doomed. I'm not suggesting it will ever start outselling the Wii, DS, or PSP anytime soon, all I'm saying is that it will have much better days than it is having right now. Currently, we know very little about the software landscape from late 2009 and beyond, much less how Sony structures the PS3 in terms of pricing and SKUs.
You cite MHP as a breakout title for the PSP, and to me that is Final Fantasy XIII on the PS3 (perhaps combined with GT5).
But again, this is all speculation. We'll see what happens in the future. I'm halfway inclined to bookmark this thread just in case what I'm saying comes to pass.
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
charlequin said:
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
What are you saying will come to pass, hoffman?
Private Hoffman
Banned
PantherLotus said:
In 2 years PS3 selling regularly 3-4x currently per week than it is now in Japan.
charlequin said:
I agree mostly with your prior mentioned list with some qualifiers to the statements. I think I've accounted for that in previous posts and my argument is that for Sony to in any way revive the PS3 will require mainly 1st party efforts, unless a "disruptive" 3rd party software strikes the console (like maybe the Idolmaster game on 360 for JP?). 3rd party will not invest in Sony because of the current hardware base but Sony will continue to invest in Sony.
What is important is for Sony to put out a renewed strategy with core JP-centric 1st party titles that will push the market. This is the way they can pour renewed vigor and velocity in the hardware-software feedback loop. They don't have a very strong track record in doing this so they counts against them, but it is a strategy they can pursue anyway. I also agree with you that FFXIII's hardware contribution will be a hardware bump and not a permanent long-term contribution, but if the bump is extraodinarily large then there may be ripple effects. It is unlikely though.
MassiveAttack
Banned
PantherLotus said:
That the planned PS3/FFXIII demo bundle in March 2009 will spur significant HW sell-through that may or may not be sustained by the release of WKS around the same time followed by the full release of FFXIII later in 2009.
What Sony does in terms of size/cost reductions next year is anyone's guess. But the opportunity exists for a relaunch of PS3 in Japan.
Private Hoffman said:
The problem with your argument is your "multiple factors" don't seem to be very well defined. What are these multiple factors? You keep hinting that PS3 is suddenly going to get great software even after it has sold poorly both hardware and software wise for nearly 2 years.
Price drops and hardware revisions to consoles only take you so far- you need great games, and your argument in that regards keeps boiling down to Final Fantasy. That's it.
Furthermore, you really aren't paying attention to charlequin's great posts if you are equating Final Fantasy to Monster Hunter. There is absolutely nothing new about Final Fantasy. There is nothing new about Final Fantasy that potential PS3 owners haven't known about for over 2 years.