Support NeoGAF

[Kuramu]

 

[BusierDonkey]

Just because of game pass? I give them credit it’s a legitimate service but let me mention to my eye Microsoft is still young in the gaming world compared to Sony. PS1, PS2.

Microsoft Adventure was released in 1979 though.

 

[kyussman]

I wish I could get a job getting paid lots of money for talking horse shit.

 

[Ghost of Caelid]

Clickbait headline OP...but I think saying sony will cease to exist as we know them in 10 years is true...but thats true for all companies. At the rate the media industry is evolving most companies will be massively different than they are today...saying sony cant compete is hyperbolic because despite being one of the smaller companies nintendo competes every day.

 

[Clear]

Why is it always Playstation that's going to be destroyed? Its not like Nintendo aren't in the console business also and are actually far less diversified in terms of fields of interest.

 

[digital_ghost]

wtf did I just read.

 

[Zeroing]

Microsoft Adventure was released in 1979 though.

I think he meant Xbox and let’s face it, MS forgot PC gaming existed for a long time. That’s why steam exists for example!
For even a clearer example Apple also had history in gaming with the Mac… could we say Apple is on the console business?

 

[Azelover]

Pachter.

So the opposite will happen

A broken clock is eventually right. I guess that's why we're still talking about him.

 

[DinosaurNerd89]

This is a great reminder not to do drugs kids.

 

[Neofire]

This dude loves climbing out of the shadows running his mouth

 

[Javthusiast]

Pachter saying thing will happen in the future...

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Say what you will but the guy can still market the #@$% out of himself. Thread exploded.

 

[Mabdia]

Is hard to believe, but you start to think that there is a possibility when you see that Sony is making a mistrake of playing Microsoft's game. In that aspect I can say that the guys at Nintendo are really smart. They do theirs thing and don't care about the others. But Sony is trying to align themselves to fight in Microsoft's field instead of keep theirs. To be honest, to me looks like Sony is trying to destroy their field.

 

[ryzen1]

While he might be laughed at by some here, he is the leading games futurist and he influences investment decisions amongst other things.

Lmfao!!
I even wonder why this dude still get this kind of attention

 

[Bear*Walken*the*Sweeper]

We're really using this guys videos now?


And Pachter? So the opposite will happen.

The sheer facts guys like this had to shift from the power narrative to Gamepass rules tells you all you need to know.

 

[mckmas8808]

I listened to the podcast. It was a longer discussion than this spicy headline of Sony cant compete and will be gone in 10 years.

I'll expand:
He also said that Sony is resting on the massive leads they built up in other territories US & UK (2:1), Middle East (10:1), etc. Sony views XBox as an anomaly and only US centric.

Where they will be in trouble is in 10 years, as there will be no need for consoles and they aren't positioned well for the future as they are reliant on consoles and have some good IP, but not enough content to fill a GamePass type service (primary driver for MS acquisition of Activision - duh).

One interesting other tidbit was he fel that Amazon will be a huge player in the future once consoles go away because their infrastructure, etc. is already built to handle it. Its also who Microsoft is most scared of. (Which back up Phil's comments about XBox's true competition).

Pachter actually came off decent and relatable. It was an enjoyable podcast and def not console fanboy flame war commentary. Check it out if interested in hearing for yourself.

Take a look at the bolded from your comment and then look at this that Pacther said in the past.

Pachter Thinks Console Gaming Will Be Gone By 2020​

"Console software is gonna move off consoles...in the next 2 to 3 years, you're gonna have the opportunity to download to your PC and play on your T.V...in the next 10 years you're gonna download to your phone and play on your T.V."

There aren't many figures more polarizing in the video game industry than Michael Pachter. The Wedbush Securities electronics analyst has never been shy about making bold predictions regarding the future of gaming, and much of his current concerns stem from the fact that he believes console gaming is dying - although just how swiftly and spectacularly varies depending on his current market analysis. In the latest episode of his Pachter Factor show, Pachter remained adamant that console gaming was on its last legs, using a Twitter question about Sony to discuss the industry's future:

Pachter Thinks Console Gaming Will Be Gone By 2020

Video game industry analyst Michael Pachter discusses what he believes will be the end of the console in the near future on the latest episode of Pachter Factor.

gamerant.com

I'm here to tell you, PLEASE DO NOT LISTEN TO PACHTER! Us vets that have been around awhile know how coo-coo he is when it comes to this stuff.

 

[SlimySnake]

Is hard to believe, but you start to think that there is a possibility when you see that Sony is making a mistrake of playing Microsoft's game. In that aspect I can say that the guys at Nintendo are really smart. They do theirs thing and don't care about the others. But Sony is trying to align themselves to fight in Microsoft's field instead of keep theirs. To be honest, to me looks like Sony is trying to destroy their field.

Yeah, going multiplatform like MS makes no sense whatsoever for Sony. Nintendo is selling millions of units every year by staying exclusive.

it's all about the closed eco system. Apple is fighting MS and Epic tooth and nail to keep their walled garden closed while Sony is spending $3.5 billion on one studio only to keep it multiplatform.

 

[JCK75]

Personally game pass is why I went Series X over PS5..
but I still don't think that's true..

 

[RoadHazard]

That's amazing news for Sony.

 

[Bear*Walken*the*Sweeper]

Perfect example of how you can fail upwards.

 

[TAS]

Has Pachter ever been right on one of his so-called predictions? No seriously..has he because I don't recall any.

 

[mckmas8808]

Yeah, if you actually watch his podcast he seems like a cool guy. It's like hanging out with your dad, only he tries to talk games with you, but still has a dad perspective. It's just his opinion, and it generates interesting discussions every time.

He's said some stupid things over the years, but he isn't all that bad. He apologized for his Iwata comments, which was a dealbreaker for me for a bit.

In terms of your post and the full context, I think that's a more interesting argument for sure. Sony in a post-console world. Personally, I think that even then they would still be around. We would have Nintendo, Sony, Amazon, Xbox apps on our TVs just like our TVs have 20 streaming apps on them now. Not all of those companies own cloud infrastructure. Sony has enough to hang on, even if they are diminished.

People need to start considering if "consumers" actually WANT a post-console world. So far the answer has been a fat NO! Yet, market analysts and videogame journalist have been saying for the past 8 years that consoles are dying. They both said the same thing about single player games. Yet, that's been 100% wrong too!

For some reason these folks can't understand that the business of gaming is growing and both things can co-exist. They still believe that it's either single player games likes TLOU dominates or Apex Legends dominate. They can't see a world where gamers play both. And they can't see a world where gamers game on consoles, PCs, and handhelds natively AND game via streaming from their TVs, PCs, or some HDMI stick. To them it's one or the other, but never both.

The truth is both will co-exist for a long while.

 

[Interfectum]

On the RDX podcast today Michael Pachter was asked about how he sees the landscape between Sony and Microsoft this gen, to which he replied "I think PlayStation is doomed, and I think they will cease to exist with how we know them in about 10 years. They can't compete, they have no chance of competing".

His point is that Gamepass is going to become the biggest thing in gaming and Sony don't have the first party studios to fill a comparable service, and the back catalogue that MS is going to have when Activision closes is a mountain too high for them.
While he might be laughed at by some here, he is the leading games futurist and he influences investment decisions amongst other things.
Time stamp 56 40

 

[LordBlodgett]

I tried to listen to this podcast because usually these things are boiled down to quotes that don't actually meet the original intent, but by God dealer gaming is awful. How the fuck do people listen to this shit....

 

[DeepEnigma]

I tried to listen to this podcast because usually these things are boiled down to quotes that don't actually meet the original intent, but by God dealer gaming is awful. How the fuck do people listen to this shit....

 

[ReBurn]

Poor Sony. Imagine how they felt seeing this news.

 

[Spukc]

Damn i really thought gamepass would make it hard for sony.
Guess microsoft is doomed

 

[blacktout]

Why is it always Playstation that's going to be destroyed? Its not like Nintendo aren't in the console business also and are actually far less diversified in terms of fields of interest.

Don't worry, Patcher has been predicting Nintendo's doom for over a decade too. This isn't a console war thing. This is just a guy with an extremely narrow and frequently wrong view of the industry.

 

[mckmas8808]

lol at Gamepass. It's just a business model. Content will kill Sony or rather lack thereof. If MS goes out and buys COD, Madden, Fifa, GTA, and Ubisoft then yes, MAYBE.

But even then, Nintendo has managed to survive and thrive without those franchises so its not a sure thing.

Pachter was saying the PS3 gen would be last and then the PS4 gen will be last. These guys secretly hate video games and dont want to cover them. Video games have never been more popular. The industry never been more profitable. MS is about to have a very good next ten years thanks to CoD and Bethesda, but Sony still has their first party studios that produce GOTY caliber games year after year. They are also finally selling better than ever with even Horizon doing 20 million sales.

It's nonsense to suggest Sony will bow out because of gamepass. If anything, they will be stronger.

The bolded is the most under rated part of your post that most here and in podcasts don't want to admit. I think most of them hate the current set up of the gaming industry. They were all pushing for a "one-console" future during the middle of the PS3 days. I remember it clearly.

 

[Topher]

Poor Sony. Imagine how they felt seeing this news.

 

[mckmas8808]

Is hard to believe, but you start to think that there is a possibility when you see that Sony is making a mistrake of playing Microsoft's game. In that aspect I can say that the guys at Nintendo are really smart. They do theirs thing and don't care about the others. But Sony is trying to align themselves to fight in Microsoft's field instead of keep theirs. To be honest, to me looks like Sony is trying to destroy their field.

If your post was correct, Sony wouldn't be making this.........

 

[Mabdia]

"I think PlayStation is doomed, and I think they will cease to exist with how we know them in about 10 years. They can't compete, they have no chance of competing".

He's not wrong here? When he said that? Don't know. But I know that Playstation already isn't what it used to be. Patchter were spot on this one.

Sony are positioning themselves to fight a war that they can't really win. Instead of fight a war that they already are defeated, they should focus on what they are strong and let the services providers do their thing.

Yeah, going multiplatform like MS makes no sense whatsoever for Sony. Nintendo is selling millions of units every year by staying exclusive.

it's all about the closed eco system. Apple is fighting MS and Epic tooth and nail to keep their walled garden closed while Sony is spending $3.5 billion on one studio only to keep it multiplatform.

Even now I'm baffled on how much they paid for Bungie. They don't have nothing that pays that price.

I can understand MS pay $70 Billion for Activision to keep it multiplataform. Microsoft's consoles will never sell more than what they achieved with Xbox 360. But they also have Windows to keep it filled with games. They have more to gain in a multiplataform ecosystem. Sony, meanwhile does not. In short term they will win some bucks. But how much will it cost to the brand?

I mean... I'm considered myself a hadcore Playstation fan. Even now I have my PS1, PS2, PS3, PSV and my PS4. But Sony make it really easy for me to just ignore totally the PS5.

If your post was correct, Sony wouldn't be making this.........

Well... how mainstream is that? Will it have the same market penetration as any console? It is an interesting accessory. But that's all for now. In the future it can really be mainstream. But it's not like you can't have the same experience elsewhere.

 

[Marvel14]

Sony to destroy Xbox confirmed!

While he might be laughed at by some here, he is the leading games futurist

OP Are You The Leading Games Humorist?

 

[Arsic]

His job is awesome. Make shit up all day and get rich uneducated dick heads to invest in shit he tells them to.

He probably lost a lot of people money by having them invest in activision blizzard a while back lol.

 

[enigmatic enthusiast]

6G Wireless PSVR says otherwise.

 

[kingfey]

Is hard to believe, but you start to think that there is a possibility when you see that Sony is making a mistrake of playing Microsoft's game. In that aspect I can say that the guys at Nintendo are really smart. They do theirs thing and don't care about the others. But Sony is trying to align themselves to fight in Microsoft's field instead of keep theirs. To be honest, to me looks like Sony is trying to destroy their field.

If there is one 1 thing Sony has advantage, it's the gamers field. MS is a corporation. Sony doesn't have the same power as MS. So gamers will always rally behind the little guy. Then there is the generation were those gamers grow up with Sony systems. Ps1-ps2 were big.

Sony can afford to make stupid mistakes like ps3, but MS cant. Xbox one destroyed their reputation. To the point, where people forgot about ring of death.

Until MS can recover their identity, they pose no threat to MS, even with gamepass.

MS money won't matter, until they can produce iconic SP games. Sony have those ready.

 

[oldergamer]

I don't know why patcher makes statements like this. It really makes him look uninformed after the fact. Even though he has been doing it for 20 years.

 

[SLB1904]

He's not wrong here? When he said that? Don't know. But I know that Playstation already isn't what it used to be. Patchter were spot on this one.

Sony are positioning themselves to fight a war that they can't really win. Instead of fight a war that they already are defeated, they should focus on what they are strong and let the services providers do their thing.

Even now I'm baffled on how much they paid for Bungie. They don't have nothing that pays that price.

I can understand MS pay $70 Billion for Activision to keep it multiplataform. Microsoft's consoles will never sell more than what they achieved with Xbox 360. But they also have Windows to keep it filled with games. They have more to gain in a multiplataform ecosystem. Sony, meanwhile does not. In short term they will win some bucks. But how much will it cost to the brand?

I mean... I'm considered myself a hadcore Playstation fan. Even now I have my PS1, PS2, PS3, PSV and my PS4. But Sony make it really easy for me to just ignore totally the PS5.


Well... how mainstream is that? Will it have the same market penetration as any console? It is an interesting accessory. But that's all for now. In the future it can really be mainstream. But it's not like you can't have the same experience elsewhere.

what a bunch of nonsense

 

[kingfey]

I don't know why patcher makes statements like this. It really makes him look uninformed after the fact. Even though he has been doing it for 20 years.

MS is spent $76b to acquire studios. They put their services on all systems, aside of Nintendo and Ps systems.

He is looking from that perspective.

But what he doesn't realize is that gamers, are dumbfuck. They are always so loyal. People stuck with xbox one sinking ship, hoping xbox will once be good. People buy COD, EA mtx games, sport games, and always pre-order games, despite getting fucked by their last pre-orders.
When you have people like these, then your business won't run out.

 

[LostDonkey]

Can someone post a concise list of everything Pachter has ever got correct.

 

[Dick Jones]

MS is spent $76b to acquire studios. They put their services on all systems, aside of Nintendo and Ps systems.

He is looking from that perspective.

But what he doesn't realize is that gamers, are dumbfuck. They are always so loyal. People stuck with xbox one sinking ship, hoping xbox will once be good. People buy COD, EA mtx games, sport games, and always pre-order games, despite getting fucked by their last pre-orders.
When you have people like these, then your business won't run out.

Could you clarify what additional systems MS have put these 76bn acquisitions? I mean more than what the companies were already doing prior to acquisition.

Otherwise it's a restriction of availability. Just call it as it is, 76bn to make certain future games/IP exclusive to Xbox. Call it what it is, exclusivity.

If I said Nintendo make all their games available on all systems except for Xbox ecosystems, Sony ecosystems and PC, I'd sound like a dumbass.

 

[Dick Jones]

Can someone post a concise list of everything Pachter has ever got correct.

Full list of everything Pachter got right:









That is the exhaustive list.

 

[Sosokrates]

They may laugh at this prediction but I doubt they will be laughing at a trillion dollar company who purchased Zenimax for 7.5billion and is going to aquire acti-blizz for 70bill.

 

[ZoukGalaxy]

Full list of everything Pachter got right:









That is the exhaustive list.

That's a SHAME. How DARE you.


You forget those ones:





END OF LIST

 

[Topher]

I have a new favorite from Pachter from way back in 2009 talking about the PS3 and Xbox 360....

Pachter: This Is The Final Generation

“I think we’ve seen the last generation of consoles,” Pachter said at the GamesBeat conference today. What Pachter saw in his crystal ball was this: Nintendo might release an upgraded Wii with HD and more storage, but Sony and Microsoft probably won’t release another console. That’s because there’s just no more money in it, and third parties won’t want it either.

“[Third party publishers] are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720,” he said. “The content is not going to change in any meaningful ways because the publishers can’t afford it.” Instead, Pachter envisions a standard delivery form – maybe something like the recently announced OnLive cloud-based system that delivers on-demand gaming by crunching data on remote servers and displaying video over the intertubes to your PC or TV.

They may laugh at this prediction but I doubt they will be laughing at a trillion dollar company who purchased Zenimax for 7.5billion and is going to aquire acti-blizz for 70bill.

 

[BeardGawd]

Yeah, going multiplatform like MS makes no sense whatsoever for Sony. Nintendo is selling millions of units every year by staying exclusive.

it's all about the closed eco system. Apple is fighting MS and Epic tooth and nail to keep their walled garden closed while Sony is spending $3.5 billion on one studio only to keep it multiplatform.

GAAS are basically their own platforms now. Fortnite, GTA, Roblox, Minecraft, etc.. No single hardware platform will ever reach 100% of the market. So if Sony can make a few software platforms available on multiple hardware platforms they stand to reach more people and make more money.

 

[CatLady]

Well that's it for MS, it's always opposite of Pachter.

As an Xbox fangirl this makes me really sad, but I agree this probably spells doom for the Xbox.

 

[DJ12]

Shame the people renting a comment never bring up his piss poor prediction record.

 

[ZoukGalaxy]

Pachter: This Is The Final Generation

“I think we’ve seen the last generation of consoles,” Pachter said at the GamesBeat conference today. What Pachter saw in his crystal ball was this: Nintendo might release an upgraded Wii with HD and more storage, but Sony and Microsoft probably won’t release another console. That’s because there’s just no more money in it, and third parties won’t want it either.

“[Third party publishers] are not going to support a PS4 or Xbox 720,” he said. “The content is not going to change in any meaningful ways because the publishers can’t afford it.” Instead, Pachter envisions a standard delivery form – maybe something like the recently announced OnLive cloud-based system that delivers on-demand gaming by crunching data on remote servers and displaying video over the intertubes to your PC or TV.

Thanks for the reminder, I almost forgot this gem !

BTW, here an exclusive view of Pachter's main tool:

The P.A.C.H.T.E.R.
(Prediction Assisted Comical Half Tool of Egocentric Rubbish)

 

[kingfey]

Could you clarify what additional systems MS have put these 76bn acquisitions? I mean more than what the companies were already doing prior to acquisition.

Otherwise it's a restriction of availability. Just call it as it is, 76bn to make certain future games/IP exclusive to Xbox. Call it what it is, exclusivity.

If I said Nintendo make all their games available on all systems except for Xbox ecosystems, Sony ecosystems and PC, I'd sound like a dumbass.

Pc, xcloud and their console. Unlike Sony, which is restricted to their console for day1 games, and pc games are roulette chance as of now.
MS is ready for the future, and their titles will reach alot of gamers, while Sony is limited to their console, unless they change their practices. This will have huge implication on next gen, if Xcloud improves fast, Windows store improves, and PC steam gets a lot of players. Sony will not be able to compete with that.
If Sony does day1, then they can challenge MS on the pc ground.

For their studios, MS has PC games. Elder scrolls and call of duty. Both zenimax and Activision/blizzard are PC publishers. Add that to their day1 pc games, and the gap between Sony and MS in that market is huge.

Xcloud also brings cloud gaming in to the table, but on another level. All day1 xbox+zenimax+activision/blizzard would be available through cloud. Meaning you dont need a console at all. If Smart tvs have xcloud, then you can potentially see the numbers MS will get from that section.

In short term, MS is proof future for their gaming division, while Sony is still pro consoles, and little bit dips on PC section. That $76b is putting them in a good spot. This is without gamepass. 3 years ago, MS had nothing, and now they have 30 studios firing contents for them, and 2 other systems ready to receive those contents.


Take these points as future investment.