Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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Which is why its pointless to blame Sony here. MS has the capital to do what Sony can do 100x.
Activision purchase itself is worth 65% of enitire Sony business. They have gamepass, which is their strength against timed exclusive.


Because its cheaper to get 10-20 day1 gamepass deals for 10 year, which will make Xbox a very attractive console, compared to gambling it with 1 company.

If day1 AAA game cost $100m, that would result in $1b-$2b a year for those games.
With a console cycle of 7 years, that is spending of $7b-$14b worth of content. That could seriously make Xbox a very attractive system, without paying for timed exclusive.

How is spending $2 Billion per year for exclusivity cheaper than earning $2 billion per year from owning Activision? One is an expense and the other is profit. You're proposing that its more sensible for Microsoft to spend an amount equivalent to Playstation's operating income annually to buy exclusivity in the hopes of swaying gamers than it is to just buy the franchises outright and not have to worry about licensing the games at at.
 
How is spending $2 Billion per year for exclusivity cheaper than earning $2 billion per year from owning Activision? One is an expense and the other is profit. You're proposing that its more sensible for Microsoft to spend an amount equivalent to Playstation's operating income annually to buy exclusivity in the hopes of swaying gamers than it is to just buy the franchises outright and not have to worry about licensing the games at at.
Because you are getting users who are going to buy 3rd party games on your system.
How many gaming companies will put themselves up for sale? Nobody seems to be upset at Activision or Zenimax for deciding to sell. They only seem to be upset that Microsoft is the one buying them.
No one is upset about that. We are just using Activision price tag as to how MS can invest on Xbox.
The only reason Sony is brought up is because Sony has made it their purpose to stop this acquisition. If they hadn't said anything I'm pretty sure MS would not have mentioned them. I agree that MS can find success no matter what Sony does, all three companies can.
MS will do the same, if Sony were to buy EA.
 
Because you are getting users who are going to buy 3rd party games on your system.

Purchasing profitable publishers achieves the same goal only now those third party games become first party games. Gamepass receives perpetual licenses for all of the IP. Microsoft gets to profit off games sold on other platforms while growing its own ecosystem. How is spending more money annually than Playstation makes for licensing more rational?
 
No one is upset about that. We are just using Activision price tag as to how MS can invest on Xbox.
No one is upset about Microsoft buying Activision?
This thread is probably going to go down as one of the longest in Neogaf/Gaming-Age forum history and I don't think it's because folks are singing Kumbaya.
 
MS will do the same, if Sony were to buy EA.
If Madden and the other sports titles still hit Xbox I don't know why MS would complain. Sony ending EA Play in Game pass might cause a complaint though. The real question is if regulators would have a problem with it seeing how Sony is the market leader and MS is not.
 
No one is upset about Microsoft buying Activision?
This thread is probably going to go down as one of the longest in Neogaf/Gaming-Age forum history and I don't think it's because folks are singing Kumbaya.

Based on the context, you should be smart enough to realize that he was saying nobody was upset that Activision chose to sell.

Actually, I didn't read it properly. What he is saying is that, between the people discussing this, the issue isn't that people aren't upset that Microsoft is buying Activision so much as they are upset that Microsoft is taking a stupid road to be able to better compete.
 
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We are just using Activision price tag as to how MS can invest on Xbox.

Taking this at face value for some discussion. I'm not sure this is even how MS are funding ABK e.g. they couldn't really just take ABK $70B and instead invest $70B cash anywhere near same timeframe nor benefits nor guarantee outcomes. The tax reduction/avoidance alone, which forms a large part of this acquisition, would not be applicable e.g. MS ain't spending $70B directly, they have huge profits and want to write down taxes via buying assets that will grow further again. I doubt the same would apply with investing over years or decades to build studios/hires/equipment and all that. Essentially depreciation over years of self grown vs instant write off in terms of same fiscal year benefits from buyouts.

I'm no accountant or auditor but I would heavily doubt the financial/tax merits of trying to compare a buyout vs organic growth.

*I agree they should invest in studios and titles but I disagree with your statement.
**It's not like they haven't purchased, started up, grown and expanded ID@Xbox, Rare, 343, Playground/Turn 10, Mojang, Ninja Theory, Kinect/HoloLens, Undead Labs, The Initiative, Compulsion, World's Edge, xCloud, Double Fine, Obsidian.

Given the investment in their current hardware, accessories, ecosystem, Game Pass, cross play, parity releases, streaming and ID@Xbox I'm very happy with their investments from a gaming point of view. Would I have liked some more AAA tent pole games over the last 5 years? Fuck yes. Would I have liked Halo to have been on song under 343 for the last 5-10 years? Fuck yes. I don't even have to go into the success and enjoyment from Game Pass, it's directly helped fund, develop, release and get more games of more genres in front of gamers.

I see them doing all things across the board. ZeniMax/Bethesda/Activision/Blizzard are huge gets with many facets and I see them not just set to continue what those purchased entities do best but also collaborating with all the other efforts of Xbox/MS e.g. Game Pass and more; studios will benefit from the talent, assets, engines, support and more. Given the factory type output of say COD it looks like Xbox have more options and diversity of titles out of Game Pass e.g. it's looking pretty great in terms of what games devs get to make and what games we get to play.

Now we can look at the differences of invest and grow your own vs buying known quantities and brands. Would you invest $70B in the unknown and have to foster everything from the ground up while taking a decade or more to achieve what can be done in say 2-3 years with buyouts and known IPs/talent? It's a pretty easy answer.

For something a little more direct, I'll take buying ZeniMax over creating/running 343 any day of the week.
 
Taking this at face value for some discussion. I'm not sure this is even how MS are funding ABK e.g. they couldn't really just take ABK $70B and instead invest $70B cash anywhere near same timeframe nor benefits nor guarantee outcomes. The tax reduction/avoidance alone, which forms a large part of this acquisition, would not be applicable e.g. MS ain't spending $70B directly, they have huge profits and want to write down taxes via buying assets that will grow further again. I doubt the same would apply with investing over years or decades to build studios/hires/equipment and all that. Essentially depreciation over years of self grown vs instant write off in terms of same fiscal year benefits from buyouts.

I'm no accountant or auditor but I would heavily doubt the financial/tax merits of trying to compare a buyout vs organic growth.

*I agree they should invest in studios and titles but I disagree with your statement.
**It's not like they haven't purchased, started up, grown and expanded ID@Xbox, Rare, 343, Playground/Turn 10, Mojang, Ninja Theory, Kinect/HoloLens, Undead Labs, The Initiative, Compulsion, World's Edge, xCloud, Double Fine, Obsidian.

Given the investment in their current hardware, accessories, ecosystem, Game Pass, cross play, parity releases, streaming and ID@Xbox I'm very happy with their investments from a gaming point of view. Would I have liked some more AAA tent pole games over the last 5 years? Fuck yes. Would I have liked Halo to have been on song under 343 for the last 5-10 years? Fuck yes. I don't even have to go into the success and enjoyment from Game Pass, it's directly helped fund, develop, release and get more games of more genres in front of gamers.

I see them doing all things across the board. ZeniMax/Bethesda/Activision/Blizzard are huge gets with many facets and I see them not just set to continue what those purchased entities do best but also collaborating with all the other efforts of Xbox/MS e.g. Game Pass and more; studios will benefit from the talent, assets, engines, support and more. Given the factory type output of say COD it looks like Xbox have more options and diversity of titles out of Game Pass e.g. it's looking pretty great in terms of what games devs get to make and what games we get to play.

Now we can look at the differences of invest and grow your own vs buying known quantities and brands. Would you invest $70B in the unknown and have to foster everything from the ground up while taking a decade or more to achieve what can be done in say 2-3 years with buyouts and known IPs/talent? It's a pretty easy answer.

For something a little more direct, I'll take buying ZeniMax over creating/running 343 any day of the week.
I think Xbox players would like to see more games on Xbox.
Buying studios is fine. But MS needs to focus more on games that is being released on Xbox.
Because more content on your system= more userbase= more publishers putting their content on your system.

MS can partner with studios like cdpr or remedy to make an exclusive Xbox game. MS will get to own those IPs and can use those games to fill up any schedule issues.

Imagine having exclusive games like Ryse son of rome or Quantum break like games.
 
I think Xbox players would like to see more games on Xbox.
Buying studios is fine. But MS needs to focus more on games that is being released on Xbox.
Because more content on your system= more userbase= more publishers putting their content on your system.

MS can partner with studios like cdpr or remedy to make an exclusive Xbox game. MS will get to own those IPs and can use those games to fill up any schedule issues.

Imagine having exclusive games like Ryse son of rome or Quantum break like games.

I'd love a sequel to Ryse. The story was well presented, I enjoyed the harder difficulty modes and the multiplayer was actually pretty decent. It's a pity the default normal campaign was far too easy and resulted in a QTE fest that lacked combat flows. A sequel could kill it, easily. Control hit post Quantum Break and the DLC was awesome. I'm really not fussed if a game is exclusive or not, just give me great games overall. In fact I'd rather games come out on more devices/platforms so more games get made or the content is richer or the game is sustained for longer. I'd rather see SoT and the last 5 years over Halo Infinite and the last 5 years.

Besides Xbox has recently given us Grounded, Cuphead, Ori, Forza Horizons, Sea of Thieves, Tunic, Atomic Heart, Hi Fi Rush and more.

Xbox is about to give us Starfield, Redfall, Minecraft Legends, Forza Motorsport, Age of Empires IV (to consoles), Replaced (of Shadow Complex fame), Hollow Knight Silksong.

Then we have Game Pass non exclusives, there's a ton to enjoy right now and so much coming e.g. Ghostwire, Wo Long, Vlaheim, Street Fighter 6. I'm also very curious about what is going to be shown in tomorrow's ID@Xbox show.

EDIT: Now imagine when the wheels of DOOM, Wolf3d, Avowed, Everwild, Elder Scrolls, Fallout all get rolling. Xbox got games and a shitload more coming. Especially if/when ABK goes through we're seeing more Diablo, WoW, COD, Overwatch.
 
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Pretty sure Tencent makes more money and Embracer has more studios.

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This chart shows MS's studio count in relation to others.

The only reason Sony is brought up is because Sony has made it their purpose to stop this acquisition. If they hadn't said anything I'm pretty sure MS would not have mentioned them. I agree that MS can find success no matter what Sony does, all three companies can.
My Eyes Pain GIF
 
Because MS can use 5% ($3.375b)of that money to do exactly samething, or improve gamepass day1, use 2%($1.35b) for marketing and use 10%($6.7b) for exclusive games from 3rd parties.
That is a total of $11.425b investment on xbox.

were you getting those figures from
 
I guess it depends on smartphone definition, Looking online, I was thinking modern day touchscreen phones, not keypad phones.
Sony Ericsson's P800 - security, modulation and camera resolution ignored - does all of that - with detachable keypad for regular candy bar formfactor - and could still fully function doing everything a modern day smartphone can, even better than the Nokia Communicator that gets taken and used in DieHard 4.0 can.

Texas instruments also had a smartphone, that may predate those other two, but wasn't touch IIRC, but the P800 is the original smartphone design that Apple is effectively freeloading as their design creation IMO.
 
Apple popularized touchscreen smartphones, even if they didn't create them. The innovation around the first iPhone was really software-based innovation, not hardware.
It wasn't IMO, it was that they waited until others had done all the heavy lifting with telecoms patents and eco-systems and size and affordability. They were able to freeload the MP3 market with making players DRM free because they had no copyrighted music to protect, so were able to freeload on offering easy piracy capable players to displace DRM heavy Walkman, the iPod gave them their volume product to easily convert that MFR saving at day one on the iPhone.

People will forget, but the call audio quality on early iPhones was only just passable in optimal conditions because of the CPU performance in the phone, and was still inferior to 5year older pre-smartphone handsets working on much slower CPUs - but were using patented techniques for noise cancelling, etc. apple were very lucky that patent licensing changed to fair usage - unlike what will have put 3dfx out of business - because most of the important telecoms patents were held by Nokia, Sony, Ericsson, Motorola, etc, and google, they could cross license, where all Apple had was a popular product and money to pay. Microsoft's acquisition of Nokia is a interesting tale that just happened to end up with Microsoft owning all those patents to cross license to Google.
 
Source is epic's free games cost.
By using that data, we can estimate spending of $50m to $200m depending on the type of the game.
3rd party exclusives are expensive and cost like AAA game cost from first party studios.

so your initial cost was a total of 11B , how long would you cost cover for AAA exclusives from third party?
 
Entire gen.

why not spend more and buy the publisher like Microsoft is trying to do, recoup the costs in the long run. also with Keeping COD on other platforms you can reap the benefits of profits of them to. plus offering exclusive games to you own ecosphere.

if you spend the 11b on third party your only getting 30% when they buy off your own digital store and what ever percentage when they buy physical, when you buy the company/publisher you get 100% on your own digital store, a much bigger cut of physical media and then in the likes of COD get 70% off other peoples store who will sell it to.

the bigger picture is its better to spend money on owning than it is to just fund third party exclusivity
 
Because MS can use 5% ($3.375b)of that money to do exactly samething, or improve gamepass day1, use 2%($1.35b) for marketing and use 10%($6.7b) for exclusive games from 3rd parties.
That is a total of $11.425b investment on xbox.
Those 11B would be lost money given the situation (you are far from being the market leader) because later you have a very good chance of not recovering them.

And without counting the negative reaction of the media and social networks that MS suffers when it uses its money in that type of strategy of massive purchase of timed exclusives. Imagine the social reaction if MS bought FF serie, SH2, etc and moved them away from PlayStation 😅

That without taking into account that the purchase of timed exclusives does not depend only on money, it also depends on the Studio or editor agreeing. I assure you that many Studios and publishers do not want to face the public condemnation and bad press of "selling out to MS" and betraying the PS community... And as you understand, paying 3x what the publisher asks Sony is not a profitable business or interesting in the Gamepass model.

It would only be a short-term investment, looking only at the console business and that does not interest MS in its future strategy. I am surprised that you yourself recently recognized that the purchase of 3rd party timed exclusives for MS was too expensive and uninteresting and now you change and put that type of investment as a better option?. What is the reason for the change?

It's simple, if your economic strength allows it, it will always be more interesting and better to buy the rights and licenses completely. It is a more profitable investment both in the short, medium and long term.

You may be against the concentration and consolidation of the market and you may not like MS or another BigTech buying publishers, It Is OK ..... but that is a different matter....
 
This is the same shit from the same members of Congress from a couple of weeks ago. Why is this guy acting like this is new?


Oh you're right, the tweet is new but the letter is dated from march.

Disregard please.
 
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They will give us the numbers if they close Activision.
They were supposed to do it this January.


The last time they gave numbers was when the deal was announced, so you're probably right, they might give an updated figure when it closes.
 
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