Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Regulators have a really tough job, but I think the CMA made the right choice and I was partially in favor of the deal going through.

I thought it was both a good situation and a bad situation for the industry.

A little nuanced perspective never hurts...
 

ShaiKhulud1989

Gold Member
And given that Sony is the only one who offers VR hardware between Xbox and PlayStation, they have a monopoly and are market leader.
I have some problems with your previous posts, but that is some prime-time drivel. VR market is cornered by big tech already, thanks to Meta and Quest 2. Apple is entering the space too, according to some leaks. PS VR is a distant second, even third if we throw in some PC VR numbers where Valve is a market leader.

But I love how everyone bashing the CMAs findings ingnores the focal point: Azure. Azure is the main anti-competative leverage here, even Sony rent CDNs to provide it's services. MS in the unique position ot both provide itself both product and HW/SW platform for that product. Platform that is impossible to circumvent if you're not, say, Amazon or Google. Note that for MS Azure will be free (minus the running cots of course), while for Sony or Nintendo cloud will inevitably will cost way more. They will be in a losing position from the start. CMA argues that if the deal went through, it will be the landscape of 4 companies gatekeeping the market from even mid-sized competitors all over again. CMA seeks to prevent exactly that.

It's not like it's not written in plain English though. Even I, non-native to that language in general, kinda understood CMAs points.
 
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Sony

Nintendo
I have some problems with your previous posts, but that is some prime-time drivel. VR market is cornered by big tech already, thanks to Meta and Quest 2. Apple is entering the space too, according to some leaks. PS VR is a distant second, even third if we throw in some PC VR numbers where Valve is a market leader.

I have some problems with your previous posts, but that is some prime-time drivel. VR market is cornered by big tech already, thanks to Meta and Quest 2. Apple is entering the space too, according to some leaks. PS VR is a distant second, even third if we throw in some PC VR numbers where Valve is a market leader.

Oh I agree with you. But I'm talking about the precedent CMA has set and how it caught itself in its own web.

- CMA has defined the high performance console market, not me
- In CMA's high performance console market, Xbox and PlayStation are the only two competitors, by CMA's own admission.
- Given that CMA has defined a high performance console market as being Xbox vs. PlayStation, Sony is de-facto market leader in VR and has a monopoly, by being the only player in this market with VR. Additionally, Sony owns a big part of the hardware chain in BR, from lenses to sensoring.

Thus, by applying CMA's market analysis to VR, then Sony has a monopoly and is market leader in the high performance console market as defined by CMA.

The fact that we're having this argument proves that CMA has a faulty analysis whose precedent is far reaching.
 

Ar¢tos

Member
With Sony buying up all of these exclusives and dominating over Xbox, I don't see why Sony isn't coming under more scrutiny. They bought out Stellar Blade, have Final Fantasy on exclusive and if the rumors are true, they will be getting a bunch of exclusives from Konami

In light of all of this, Microsoft 'should' be able to buy Blizzard Activision. Do I want to? Looking at the track record of their recent studies, both of those studios will probably degrade significantly and it'll take twice as long to release games.

As a videogame 'fan', it might be fun to root for your favorite console manufacturer to win, but it actually sucks when they do because that means they become more comfortable with anti-consumer practices. Remember 'always online' gaming only that Microsoft wanted? Now, look at all these Sony games selling at $70. Competition keeps prices low and it keeps companies delivering the best results to consumers.
Funding games in exchange for exclusivity (timed or not) is something MS did a ton of in the 360 era.
It wasn't a problem for the people complaining about it then.
It's a legal practice that MS can do whenever they want, and they have a shit ton more money than Sony to do it. So it won't be under scrutiny.
 
With Sony buying up all of these exclusives and dominating over Xbox, I don't see why Sony isn't coming under more scrutiny. They bought out Stellar Blade, have Final Fantasy on exclusive and if the rumors are true, they will be getting a bunch of exclusives from Konami

In light of all of this, Microsoft 'should' be able to buy Blizzard Activision. Do I want to? Looking at the track record of their recent studies, both of those studios will probably degrade significantly and it'll take twice as long to release games.

As a videogame 'fan', it might be fun to root for your favorite console manufacturer to win, but it actually sucks when they do because that means they become more comfortable with anti-consumer practices. Remember 'always online' gaming only that Microsoft wanted? Now, look at all these Sony games selling at $70. Competition keeps prices low and it keeps companies delivering the best results to consumers.

Sony is funding and/or developing the Konami titles

The only reason they exist is because Sony is bringing them back

Call of Duty exists whether MS buys them or not.

Totally false analogy
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
Or you know... they actually like Xbox. Not saying shills don't exist, but those hardcore fanboys that likely annoy you are just super fans. Xbox takes advantage of them, sometimes to their own detriment, but they really are just fans.

EDIT: I've been banned from the thread. It was fun, y'all!
Super fans of what exactly? Games like Redfall and Pentiment? Microsoft literally have internal documents on shilling, like the 130 page behemoth below. Educate yourself.

Explains some of our friends on here, from Reddit;

I found this while looking into Florian Mueller who is another Microsoft shill on twitter

http://techrights.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/comes-3096.pdf

It essentially lays out Microsoft's playbook for astroturfing and dealing with any competition or "enemies" as they call them.

It is an internal Microsoft document that became public during an anti trust lawsuit Microsoft lost many years ago and seems to have been lost with time.

Essentially if Microsoft has any competitor they want to extinguish them. Sometimes that involves playing nice with others but eventually want to overwhelm them with their money and power.

Here's just a small part of the craziness in this doc
 

Elios83

Member
I hope the eu will approve this deal
So we can move on and talk about games
And how that is supposed to happen even if EU approves the deal?
The whole thing will be stucked in a legal limbo for an other year best case because of CMA and FTC.
It's the opposite, if you want this to be over soon you should hope that EU blocks as well :messenger_tears_of_joy:
 

Aaron Olive

Member
Oh I agree with you. But I'm talking about the precedent CMA has set and how it caught itself in its own web.

- CMA has defined the high performance console market, not me
- In CMA's high performance console market, Xbox and PlayStation are the only two competitors, by CMA's own admission.
- Given that CMA has defined a high performance console market as being Xbox vs. PlayStation, Sony is de-facto market leader in VR and has a Monopoly, by being the only player in this market with VR. Additionally, Sony owns a big part of the hardware chain in BR, from lenses to sensoring.

Thus, by applying CMA's market analysis to VR, then Sony has a Monopoly and is market leader in the high performance console market as defined by CMA.

The fact that we're having this argument proves that CMA has a faulty analysis whose precedent is far reaching.
princess-bride-you-keep-using-that-word.gif

ICerP4v.png
 
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Ev1L AuRoN

Member
And how that is supposed to happen even if EU approves the deal?
The whole thing will be stucked in a legal limbo for an other year best case because of CMA and FTC.
It's the opposite, if you want this to be over soon you should hope that EU blocks as well :messenger_tears_of_joy:
I think EU will block the deal as well. CMA made some valid points that can't be ignored.
Instead of buying studios and mismanagement them, Microsoft should commission third party developers to make exclusives for them, from the ground up, with Microsoft keeping the ownership of the IP, like Sony used to do with Insomniac. Much better deal, you don't take games away from your competitor, fund the industry and get new IP's that can blow up and become the next big thing, much easier letting those companies do business as usual than bringing them in and have them underperform under your "leadership".
 

Elios83

Member
I think EU will block the deal as well. CMA made some valid points that can't be ignored.
Instead of buying studios and mismanagement them, Microsoft should commission third party developers to make exclusives for them, from the ground up, with Microsoft keeping the ownership of the IP, like Sony used to do with Insomniac. Much better deal, you don't take games away from your competitor, fund the industry and get new IP's that can blow up and become the next big thing, much easier letting those companies do business as usual than bringing them in and have them underperform under your "leadership".

It's a wait and see situation.
It's likely that EU has seriously considered and investigated a solution based on a set of behavioral remedies around the cloud market.
Maybe the CMA and FTC will give them enough confidence to throw it away or they could stick with it justifying the divergency with market differences (translated: fear of appeals and political pressure).
It can go both way honestly.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
Oh I agree with you. But I'm talking about the precedent CMA has set and how it caught itself in its own web.

- CMA has defined the high performance console market, not me
- In CMA's high performance console market, Xbox and PlayStation are the only two competitors, by CMA's own admission.
- Given that CMA has defined a high performance console market as being Xbox vs. PlayStation, Sony is de-facto market leader in VR and has a monopoly, by being the only player in this market with VR. Additionally, Sony owns a big part of the hardware chain in BR, from lenses to sensoring.

Thus, by applying CMA's market analysis to VR, then Sony has a monopoly and is market leader in the high performance console market as defined by CMA.

The fact that we're having this argument proves that CMA has a faulty analysis whose precedent is far reaching.

The CMA didn't define a "high performance console market". That was the FTC.
 

Sony

Nintendo
The CMA didn't define a "high performance console market". That was the FTC.
Fair enough, give it a name. The fact is the matter is that CMA excluded Nintendo in the console SLC findings because they only defined a market of consoles/ competitors consisting of Sony and Microsoft.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Irrelevant. Stop moving goalposts.
It's not irrelevant.

Again, who's fault is that?

Even Nintendo put in more effort with that Labo garbage.
 
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feynoob

Banned
Fair enough, give it a name. The fact is the matter is that CMA excluded Nintendo in the console SLC findings because they only defined a market of consoles/ competitors consisting of Sony and Microsoft.
CMA dropped console slc.
 

feynoob

Banned
Microsoft doesn't own hardware supply chain for VR chain though. You're proving my point ;).
If they join right now, they could rule that market.

Even Sony is failing badly with a market that they supposedly have advantage over.

Psvr sold 5m lifetime, while quest series combined sold 20m lifetime.

MS has the clear advantage due to PC+console hybrid. It's a market they themselves don't want to get in. But will rule if they step in.
 

feynoob

Banned
They dropped argument that it would lead to SLC, they didn't drop the market definition.
They dropped console completely. Market definition or not, it doesn't matter to the decision.

Cloud slc is what killed this deal, which is completely different than consoles.
 

Nvzman

Member
Which of those are availible for consoles?
Which part of your brain cells are using critical thinking?

Being available to a console has fuck-all to do with a monopoly. Monopoly implies nearly impossible to compete dominance within its relevant market. As in the VR market, which is what the PSVR2 is in, there is a lot of competition which Sony isn't even close to leading. Microsoft choosing not to do VR on console and Nintendo having Labo VR (lol) doesn't mean PSVR2 is a monopoly lmfao. You need a PC for Valve index, does that mean Valve is leading a monopoly in the PC-VR space?????????

Use your head and do some research so you don't sound ridiculous arguing this.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
Fair enough, give it a name. The fact is the matter is that CMA excluded Nintendo in the console SLC findings because they only defined a market of consoles/ competitors consisting of Sony and Microsoft.

Simply not true. The CMA's provisional findings of SLC were due to the impact of CoD on Sony. The CMA said Nintendo competed less closely with Xbox/PlayStation than Xbox and PS competed with each other, but explicitly said Nintendo was a competitor.
 
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Lol Fortnite is free, like who cares about this?
Fortnite is also free on Xcloud. Luma dominates Xcloud since it has a bigger fanbase via streaming. Majority of gamers on Xbox Game Pass Ultimate plays their games natively, not through the cloud.


CMA logic is flawed. Amazon is competing against Xcloud.


If you only include Xcloud Statistics vs Luma.

Luma has 18+ million gamers

Xcloud has alot less than 18 million gamers.
 
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Topher

Identifies as young
Fortnite is also free on Xcloud. Luma dominates Xcloud since it has a bigger fanbase via streaming. Majority of gamers on Xbox Game Pass Ultimate plays their games natively, not through the cloud.


CMA logic is flawed. Amazon is competing against Xcloud.

Not flawed. The CMA is focusing on the long term effects of the merger in the cloud market rather than just who is currently in competition.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
With Sony buying up all of these exclusives and dominating over Xbox, I don't see why Sony isn't coming under more scrutiny. They bought out Stellar Blade, have Final Fantasy on exclusive and if the rumors are true, they will be getting a bunch of exclusives from Konami

In light of all of this, Microsoft 'should' be able to buy Blizzard Activision. Do I want to? Looking at the track record of their recent studies, both of those studios will probably degrade significantly and it'll take twice as long to release games.

As a videogame 'fan', it might be fun to root for your favorite console manufacturer to win, but it actually sucks when they do because that means they become more comfortable with anti-consumer practices. Remember 'always online' gaming only that Microsoft wanted? Now, look at all these Sony games selling at $70. Competition keeps prices low and it keeps companies delivering the best results to consumers.
This is so absurd. Sony funded Stellar Blade, so Microsoft should be allowed to buy Activision-Blizzard-King. 😄

Come On Reaction GIF by MOODMAN
 
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Mr Moose

Member
If you only include Xcloud Statistics vs Luma.

Luma has 18+ million gamers
What is Luma and where is this number from?
Amazon Prime Video remained on a par, with 13.12 million homes in Q4 2022, a slight increase of +0.1% from 13.11 million in Q3 2022.
The number of households in the United Kingdom with an Amazon Prime Video subscription increased to around 13.12 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. The service faces tough competition from the subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) giant Netflix, who reported over 17 million subscribers in the UK.
This?
 
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DeepEnigma

Gold Member
What is Luma and where is this number from?


This?
As of April of last year (published),
As of the fourth quarter of 2021, Microsoft's Xbox Cloud gaming service had approximately 13.2 million subscribers, more than any of its closest competitors combined. During the same period, Amazon Luna only had 270 thousand subscribers.

People are obfuscating 18 million Prime members in the UK with "Luna gamers." In other words, it's bullshit.
 
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Mr Moose

Member
As of April of last year,


People are obfuscating 18 million Prime members in the UK with "Luna gamers." In other words, it's bullshit.
People listening to shill Jizz' numbers?

Prime Video is 13M.
 
Oh I agree with you. But I'm talking about the precedent CMA has set and how it caught itself in its own web.

- CMA has defined the high performance console market, not me
- In CMA's high performance console market, Xbox and PlayStation are the only two competitors, by CMA's own admission.
- Given that CMA has defined a high performance console market as being Xbox vs. PlayStation, Sony is de-facto market leader in VR and has a monopoly, by being the only player in this market with VR. Additionally, Sony owns a big part of the hardware chain in BR, from lenses to sensoring.

Thus, by applying CMA's market analysis to VR, then Sony has a monopoly and is market leader in the high performance console market as defined by CMA.

The fact that we're having this argument proves that CMA has a faulty analysis whose precedent is far reaching.
If Sony spends $70 billion dollars to acquire Oculus/META VR and/or buy all of the VR studios in existence (which they can't/won't) then you might have a fair argument. And if those acquisitions do happen, the CMA will be taking a look at it.

But all of that is meaningless because right now the CMA has been asked to review Microsoft buying ABK for $70 billion, not Sony. They've been asked to review the largest video game acquisition in the history of video games by a full order of magnitude. Not only are they looking to make the biggest acquisition in gaming history, they themselves are a multi-trillion dollar tech giant, with insanely massive cloud presence. Any and all acquisitions they make will be regarded with a great deal of suspicion and scrutiny, and rightfully so. ABK basically allows them to control an absolutely gargantuan gaming IP portfolio to supplement their efforts to push cloud gaming (please see Satya Nadella and Phil Spencer talking about Sony not even being their true competition in gaming). Microsoft have shifted their own narrative to downplay cloud gaming, despite showing off to shareholders just how big of an opportunity it is for them in the gaming space.

Level your petty accusations of "bias" against the CMA if they get asked to review a Sony transaction in VR when it happens. Because right now, this is just a whataboutism.
 

GHG

Gold Member
I'm not the best at stock info but yeah generally people sell when the stock value is about to drop, so buying would mean he expects the stock value to increase in the coming weeks/months. And MS agreed to buy at $95 share.

GHG GHG probably knows a lot better.

The reality is that either way it could prove to be a good purchase at the current price point.

ATVI receive 3 billion - that gets added to the balance sheet or is used for share buybacks.

Deal goes through - share price goes to $95.
 
This is so absurd. Sony funded Stellar Blade, so Microsoft should be allowed to buy Activision-Blizzard-King. 😄

Come On Reaction GIF by MOODMAN
We had some of our shills here saying that MS should acquire Capcom next to switch Street Fighter from PS to Xbox. It wasn't even that long ago. They equate funding a game with buying the whole company, which is exemplary of how a monopolist thinks and unfortunately also demonstrates why MS is the world's most notorious monopolist.
 

demigod

Member
Oh but by CMA's definition, they are. CMA defined the high performance console market, which is Xbox vs. PlayStation, leaving out Nintendo. And given that Sony is the only one who offers VR hardware between Xbox and PlayStation, they have a monopoly and are market leader.
Oh jesus, we got another ignorant one here. Sony is NOT the leader in VR. The Quest 2 has already outsold psvr.
 
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demigod

Member
Fortnite is also free on Xcloud. Luma dominates Xcloud since it has a bigger fanbase via streaming. Majority of gamers on Xbox Game Pass Ultimate plays their games natively, not through the cloud.


CMA logic is flawed. Amazon is competing against Xcloud.


If you only include Xcloud Statistics vs Luma.

Luma has 18+ million gamers

Xcloud has alot less than 18 million gamers.
Stop making shit up and being disingenuous like jizz corden. Those are Amazon Prime members. Luna+ requires a different subscription and are nowhere near that number, i doubt it’s even passed 2mil.
 
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