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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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Excess

Member
If the FTC approves, the CMA won't be the one stopping this deal. They will find a way around it. Pressure will be immense on them.

Agreed, the entire deal will hinge on the FTC's decision, not the CMA's, and I think the bellweather here is the EU's decision, who is often much more protective of consumers than the FTC. This is why MSFT/ATVI barrelled forward even after the setback.

CMA will ultimately capitulate on remedies so that they can save political face.
 
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And that brings us to the first thing we should agree on which is that the CMA are a bunch of inadequate people who shouldn't have this much power to begin with.

Total opposite. CMA is the only one with the balls to say fuck off to giant corporations like Microsoft thinking they can use their money to gain a foothold in an anti competitive way whilst also reducing actual competition. Nobody except a small minority of silly xbox fanboys like yourself wants this kind of thing in the industry. Well done to the CMA for actually doing their job properly!
 
I think the FTC is a crapshoot. On one hand, they're probably just as corrupt as the rest of our government and will take whatever money to pass it.
On the other hand, the FTC is trying to be tough against big tech lately and this might be the perfect decision to let them showboat and pretend like they care for once.
 

sainraja

Member
Microsoft has already [successfully] acquired Zenimax/Bethesda. The ones frowning about the CMA are completely ignoring this or forgetting this. Whatever happens, happens... but no one should be rooting for MS (or anyone really) to acquire even more publishers, especially big ones like Activision. MS isn't owed that.

CMA seems to be the only one that seems brave enough to stand up to it. The others should have also but here we are.
 
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DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Why the fuck do you think Nvidia and every other cloud gaming provider want this deal to happen if it was bad for them?
Because nVidia was shot down by them with ARM merger. They love anti-competitive mergers, look how they strongarm the GPU industry with their proprietary software/hardware features where as AMD leaves them all open source.

And what do you mean, every other? Google was against this, do we have Amazon's take?
 

Nothing1234

Banned
Microsoft has already [successfully] acquired Zenimax/Bethesda. The ones frowning about the CMA are completely ignoring this or forgetting this. Whatever happens, happens... but no one should be rooting for MS (or anyone really) to acquire even more publishers, especially big ones like Activision. MS isn't owed that.

CMA seems to be the only one that seems brave enough to stand up to it. The others should have also but here we are.
That deal went under the EU tbf.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
Agreed, the entire deal will hinge on the FTC's decision, not the CMA's, and I think the bellweather here is the EU's decision, who is often much more protective of consumers than the FTC. This is why MSFT/ATVI barrelled forward even after the setback.

CMA will ultimately capitulate on remedies so that they can save political face.

Incorrect. CMA's ruling is final. They are blocking the deal. MS can appeal, but CMA does not have to budge on their remedy of prohibiting the merger at all.
 

Nydius

Member
CMA will ultimately capitulate on remedies so that they can saven political face.

Pure Copium.

They’ve already decided. They’re not revisiting their decision or any potential remedies unless they’re forced to by a CAT appeal. The likelihood of a CAT appeal being in Microsoft’s favor is very small.

I realize this thread is almost 1000 pages long but all of this has been explained ad nauseum. Do try and keep up.
 

zomboden

Banned
I think the FTC is a crapshoot. On one hand, they're probably just as corrupt as the rest of our government and will take whatever money to pass it.
On the other hand, the FTC is trying to be tough against big tech lately and this might be the perfect decision to let them showboat and pretend like they care for once.
I'm sure Microsoft sends plenty of "donations" to the right politicians to make sure things go smoothly over at the FTC
 

sainraja

Member
That deal went under the EU tbf.
Not sure if I follow... Zenimax/Bethesda? I assumed it went through the same type of scrutiny with all the regulators; I suppose the requirement for approval may not have been the same?
 
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Bernoulli

M2 slut
Microsoft has already [successfully] acquired Zenimax/Bethesda. The ones frowning about the CMA are completely ignoring this or forgetting this. Whatever happens, happens... but no one should be rooting for MS (or anyone really) to acquire even more publishers, especially big ones like Activision. MS isn't owed that.

CMA seems to be the only one that seems brave enough to stand up to it. The others should have also but here we are.
It was under the EC and not the CMA
Thankfully now we have the CMA
 

Ar¢tos

Member
Microsoft can stop the CMA by easily by leaving the UK or using the queen and prime Minister to stop the CMA
The dead queen or you are talking about some influential British drag queen?
Easily leaving the UK?
Easily? Firing all employees, selling all assets, losing all profit from the UK business? That's "easy" for you?
Leaving the UK would cost them more than 3bn they have to pay ATK!
 

RickMasters

Member
hypothetical question….. if the FTC approves, how does this go. That would mean only the CMA move to block. How does this work if only one country blocks it? Hypothetical question….
 

PaintTinJr

Member
Agreed, the entire deal will hinge on the FTC's decision, not the CMA's, and I think the bellweather here is the EU's decision, who is often much more protective of consumers than the FTC. This is why MSFT/ATVI barrelled forward even after the setback.

CMA will ultimately capitulate on remedies so that they can save political face.
You know we have nearly 1000 pages of this thread with lots of external links to how things work to tell you that everything you have written just now is wrong.

For the CMA to overturn their own decision on a failed defence on appeal at the CAT this would have a bigger corruption stink than anything that has ever hit UK shores.

The CMA have no political face to save, as they are an independent body, which as you might be unaware are non-partisan and don't answer directly to the government
 

Clear

CliffyB's Cock Holster
I think the FTC is a crapshoot. On one hand, they're probably just as corrupt as the rest of our government and will take whatever money to pass it.
On the other hand, the FTC is trying to be tough against big tech lately and this might be the perfect decision to let them showboat and pretend like they care for once.

I agree, the precedent set by the CMA and EC gives them the opportunity to go either way. Either way its all political.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
I think the FTC is a crapshoot. On one hand, they're probably just as corrupt as the rest of our government and will take whatever money to pass it.
On the other hand, the FTC is trying to be tough against big tech lately and this might be the perfect decision to let them showboat and pretend like they care for once.
I feel that in the end, it's all grandstanding. Pure political theater 101.

Just like the "stern talking to" theaters they put on display with Facebook and the like.
Mark Zuckerberg Smile GIF

Theater.
 
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Nydius

Member
hypothetical question….. if the FTC approves, how does this go. That would mean only the CMA move to block. How does this work if only one country blocks it? Hypothetical question….
Per Microsoft’s SEC filings on the merger, regulatory approval must be unanimous. Doesn’t matter if the UK is the lone hold out, it’s still blocked. The only option will be for Microsoft to appeal and hope they can pursuade CAT that the CMA were just being idiots, and kick the ball back to the CMA for round two (or is it three at this point?) of negotiations and concessions.

The CAT appeal process alone may take 12-18 months. Even if it’s successful, which, again, the odds are slim, the CMA could easily decide to block the deal again for similar, or completely different, grounds. Or they could accept the concessions and let it go through.

But you’re still looking at a matter of years. Years that shareholders of either Microsoft or Activision may not want to bother with.
 
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Mr Moose

Member
Per Microsoft’s SEC filings on the merger, regulatory approval must be unanimous. Doesn’t matter if the UK is the lone hold out, it’s still blocked. The only option will be for Microsoft to appeal and hope they can pursuade CAT that the CMA were just being idiots, and kick the ball back to the CMA for round two (or is it three at this point?) of negotiations and concessions.

The CAT appeal process alone may take 12-18 months. Even if it’s successful, which, again, the odds are slim, the CMA could easily decide to block the deal again for similar, or completely different, grounds. Or they could accept the concessions and let it go through.

But you’re still looking at a matter of years. Years that shareholders of either Microsoft or Activision may not want to bother with.
 

ulantan

Member
Keeping 100% of the game's revenue, cutting out the middle man on competing platforms.

Sensible!

/s

This is an even worse Trojan Horse than the OG 10-year deal. You just completely cut out your competitions revenue stream on worldwide various platforms.
It's amazing isn't it. when Phil said that shit about people selling their ps5 he gave away the game plan. The strategy was never to compete by making better games. Thier entire strategy hinges on reducing their competitions revenue and because of that weaken thier product. It's a strat only They have the money to pull off.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Exactly. I think it should be blocked, but it's also like, so now you wanna pretend to stop monopolies? Why don't you revisit a few things then . . .
Because back in the day (the 90s) when they gave Bill Gates that very same theater "stern talking to," it was to assist in setting up proper lobbying procedures to help them become the behemoths they are today. "What government contracts and taxpayer money sinks can you assist us with, Mr. Gates."

They only excluded sports and news from the Disney/Fox to not look too "on the nose," but still another deal that should not have happened. Especially after Lucasfilm/Star Wars/Marvel. Same with Comcast deals, etc., etc..

But this is going down that rabbit hole too much.
 
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DeepEnigma

Gold Member
It's amazing isn't it. when Phil said that shit about people selling their ps5 he gave away the game plan. The strategy was never to compete by making better games. Thier entire strategy hinges on reducing their competitions revenue and because of that weaken thier product. It's a strat only They have the money to pull off.
He projected what their plan was a couple of months back when he tried accusing Sony of making them, MS, the 3rd richest company in the world, smaller.

Accuse the the other side that in which you are guilty of yourself.

A political playbook.
 
Per Microsoft’s SEC filings on the merger, regulatory approval must be unanimous. Doesn’t matter if the UK is the lone hold out, it’s still blocked. The only option will be for Microsoft to appeal and hope they can pursuade CAT that the CMA were just being idiots, and kick the ball back to the CMA for round two (or is it three at this point?) of negotiations and concessions.

The CAT appeal process alone may take 12-18 months. Even if it’s successful, which, again, the odds are slim, the CMA could easily decide to block the deal again for similar, or completely different, grounds. Or they could accept the concessions and let it go through.

But you’re still looking at a matter of years. Years that shareholders of either Microsoft or Activision may not want to bother with.

Let alone I or many others would be interested in having to talk about this as a point of discussion. It just seemed like last week or two general discussion was finally pivoting away from this acquisition and back to what actually matters: games.

Unfortunately, one platform released a putrid turd of a AAA game that became a meme, then had the CEO of its gaming division put out a defeatist interview with a shill podcast, so fanboys/fangirls of that platform kicked up temper tantrums over games released on the other two platforms after the CMA blocked "their" deal.

And now, today, we're right back to the exhausting circus of this acquisition dominating gaming news yet again. I don't want another 18 months of this shit, but that doesn't mean I want Microsoft to get approval for the deal just to have it go away from the news circuit. There are a lot more points of merit against the deal than for it IMO, particularly around precedent it may set for other companies to buy up big publishers in the gaming market just to feel like it's their only means to "compete".
 
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