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[Tfault]

Sometimes reading Sales-Age stupidity can be headache inducing. It's unbelievable how out of touch some people here are and then go around to criticize Pachter when in actuality the general consensus here tends to be just as poorly informed.

To keep it simple: The XBO is indeed doing well. It is poised to most likely sell less than the 360 but not by the levels some are predicting here, more likely a marginal decline. It won't come close to the PS4 worldwide but it doesn't need to in order to justify it's existence, just do well enough to convince Microsoft to continue supporting the division which it is. The system on the extreme (Highly unlikely) low end will probably end up over 40 million, maybe as high as 70 million. Systems that sell like that aren't just discontinued the way people around here are claiming. It might not be ideal but to claim that they would drop a division over it is ridiculous.

May I ask what matric you are using to make this statement, the 'which it is' in particular? As far as I can tell the Xbox is loosing money every quarter and in particular since the Xbox One was introduced due to higher cost of revenue.

And at the end of the day sales numbers are nice for us, but revenue is what counts to investors!

 

[Pancakes R Us]

Youch. Maybe it will just be Ninty and Sony by 2017...

Yep, that's clear with the way Wii U sales are going...

 

[jcm]

It's completely bullshit, Sony's market cap is 20B, their TOTAL revenue if you don't even minus out the operating expenses etc. was 1.8B last quarter and not 23B. Net income was only a bit over 400mil, the prior quarter then lost almost 700mil.

A company with revenue of 23Bil would have a market cap SIGNIFICANTLY higher then 20Bil.

LOL, silly people talking about something they know nothing about.

If you're going to call someone silly you ought to ensure you know what you're talking about. Sonys revenue last quarter was $17.9 billion. It's right there in the earnings report.

 

[KillerMan91]

maybe 12.

I can't see the ps4 selling 7-8 million consoles between October and December. I'll say 4-5 more

PS3 used to pull over 6 million holiday shipments regularly. PS4 is doing better than PS3 ever did outside of Japan. Sony will ship over 7 million PS4s easily during holiday quarter.

 

[Captain Tuttle]

And at the end of the day sales numbers are nice for us, but revenue is what counts to investors!

Profit counts (and in MS's case dividend) and MS is doing just fine. Xbox is almost a rounding error on their balance sheet.

 

[mangochutney]

May I ask what matric you are using to make this statement, the 'which it is' in particular? As far as I can tell the Xbox is loosing money every quarter and in particular since the Xbox One was introduced due to higher cost of revenue.

And at the end of the day sales numbers are nice for us, but revenue is what counts to investors!

Profit, not revenue is what they're after - but I guess you were kinda aiming for that direction!

Edit: beaten .

 

[Tfault]

Profit counts (and in MS's case dividend) and MS is doing just fine. Xbox is almost a rounding error on their balance sheet.

100% agree, but the conversation was specifically about the Xbox.

 

[Chobel]

If you're going to call someone silly you ought to ensure you know what you're talking about. Sonys revenue last quarter was $17.9 billion. It's right there in the earnings report.

LMAO!

You know the fanboys have gotten unbearable when the sane people start requesting forced exile.

You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. "Fanboys" had nothing to do with it.

 

[stryke]

You know the fanboys have gotten unbearable when the sane people start requesting forced exile.

Pretty sure it had little to do with fanboys.

 

[Captain Tuttle]

100% agree, but the conversation was specifically about the Xbox.

Investors who matter don't invest in Xbox, they invest in Microsoft, the whole company.

 

[demosthenes]

It's completely bullshit, Sony's market cap is 20B, their TOTAL revenue if you don't even minus out the operating expenses etc. was 1.8B last quarter and not 23B. Net income was only a bit over 400mil, the prior quarter then lost almost 700mil.

A company with revenue of 23Bil would have a market cap SIGNIFICANTLY higher then 20Bil.

LOL, silly people talking about something they know nothing about.

I don't think you know anything about business or accounting.

:lol

 

[Tfault]

Profit, not revenue is what they're after - but I guess you were kinda aiming for that direction!

Edit: beaten .

Let me hand Tuttle a large bat!

Investors who matter don't invest in Xbox, they invest in Microsoft, the whole company.

Lol, No doubt about it..

 

[Kazuma Kiryu]

You know the fanboys have gotten unbearable when the sane people start requesting forced exile.

You also get to know who doesn't know what he's talking about.

 

[Welfare]

Ugh. Was expecting the "family", but my heart told me otherwise.

 

[xxracerxx]

You know the fanboys have gotten unbearable when the sane people start requesting forced exile.

Umm, seems like you don't know what actually caused her to ask.

 

[Guevara]

Ugh. Was expecting the "family", but my heart told me otherwise.

Xbox means family. Family means no one gets left behind OR forgotten.

 

[B.O.O.M]

If you're going to call someone silly you ought to ensure you know what you're talking about. Sonys revenue last quarter was $17.9 billion. It's right there in the earnings report.

welp....

I mean people make mistakes but he actually chose to be condesending while correcting someone and it backfired gloriously..no sympathy whatsoever

OT: decent result really. Just because it's not doing as good as one of the rivals doesn't mean they are doing bad.

 

[TypuyBaran]

If you're going to call someone silly you ought to ensure you know what you're talking about. Sonys revenue last quarter was $17.9 billion. It's right there in the earnings report.

My apologies, I was looking at their SNE balance sheet in yen, stock traded on NYSE.... LOL

I should have looked at the currency... Yen.

That's what I get for being an ass... Regardless it's not 23bil

 

[Schrade]

Xbox means family. Family means no one gets left behind OR forgotten.

Except for the original Xbox. Xbox 1.


huhuhuh

 

[TypuyBaran]

welp....

I mean people make mistakes but he actually chose to be condesending while correcting someone and it backfired gloriously..no sympathy whatsoever

OT: decent result really. Just because it's not doing as good as one of the rivals doesn't mean they are doing bad.

I deserve it for not looking carefully ... Lol

 

[Bold One]

So good news for the Xbros?

 

[vpance]

1 million bones in the channel probably, give or take one or two 100k's.

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

Good, but maybe not great numbers. The unquestionably good news is that they are no longer working on moving old stock like last quarter, so it means that stores are buying again and they would not order more unless consumers were buying off of them. The maybe troublesome news is that a good percent must have gone to launch countries and with reception being fairly low in those places, ship will still be a large distance from sold for these numbers. To make a call back to Collin Moriarty of IGN, in a vacuum Xbox1 is still doing well and I would argue that this quarter still reflects that. I sure Microsoft is not as happy as they would like to be, but give Spencer some credit for working hard to realign the proverbial train back on its tracks.

 

[Guevara]

Really makes me wonder how many One's were available for each of the 28 regional launches.

I mean just 2.4M/28 countries + 1 (U.S.) = 82k each

And that's split between Ones/360s

Obviously that's not how units were allocated, but it does man many regions probably got very few Ones.

 

[Apathy]

Does this include however many they sold in Japan and China?

 

[SwiftDeath]

Does this include however many they sold in Japan and China?

Yes although the China launch is just on the end of tracking for this quarterly report. Would still include the initial chinese shipment/sales of 100k [not sure that was ever qualified as sales or shipments?]

 

[Dragonborn]

Somewhat better rhan I thought it'd be but it's likely a lot is sitting on shelves. I doubt it's hit close to 6 million sold through yet which means there's a rather large amount waiting to be sold

 

[Final Verdict]

Did some math. According to our NPD numbers (courtesy of those who have been willing to share), X1 & X360 have sold at a 72-28 ratio throughout this year in the US.
(Which basically means that for every 10 'xbox' consoles sold, 7/10 were X1 units)

If we extrapolate these numbers, we can see that Microsoft probably sold around 1.7M Xbox ones, and 0.7M Xbox 360s in July-September.

 

[Guevara]

Did some math. According to our NPD numbers (courtesy of those who have been willing to share), X1 & X360 have sold at a 72-28 ratio throughout this year in the US.
(Which basically means that for every 10 'xbox' consoles sold, 7/10 were X1 units)

If we extrapolate these numbers, we can see that Microsoft probably sold around 1.7M Xbox ones, and 0.7M Xbox 360s in July-September.

The U.S. is pretty clearly the One's strongest region though. Also most likely to buy a $4-$500 console.

Not saying that isn't a fine estimate, just that it probably overstates One adoption.

 

[Y2Kev]

It's completely bullshit, Sony's market cap is 20B, their TOTAL revenue if you don't even minus out the operating expenses etc. was 1.8B last quarter and not 23B. Net income was only a bit over 400mil, the prior quarter then lost almost 700mil.

A company with revenue of 23Bil would have a market cap SIGNIFICANTLY higher then 20Bil.

LOL, silly people talking about something they know nothing about.

LOL

 

[Noobcraft]

How many more Minecrafts can Microsoft buy? Someone break this down for me like I'm 6.

 

[Guevara]

I put on my robe and market cap...

 

[Biker19]

She got overwhelmed in that thread. I hope shes doing ok. She really was trying to do a good thing unfortunately she was getting heat by some. Cant have good things like alot aready said.

Man, I feel bad for her. She doesn't deserve this awful treatment.

 

[Welfare]

Just going to throw in my estimates.

Quarter 4 (April-June)

Xbox 360

On June 9, Microsoft announced 84 million 360 were shipped WW. In the previous Q, it sold 800k, bringing the total to 83.7 million units. That means MS shipped 300k units in the span of 2 months, or more accurately, 70 days. There would still be 21 days before shipments ended, so the number is >300k.

Now we have some numbers to work with. That's about 150k per month. From what I remember, June did not have anything of note for the 360 for MS to bump production passed 150k per month, so I think the most logical answer for Q4 numbers for the 360 would be 450k.

I'll just round these numbers down for now.

  FY          Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr    Ap-Jn      FY      

2013/14        1.2      3.5      0.8       0.4         5.9        84.1

Hooray! 360 is now above 84 million!

Xbox One

But what else does this number tell? The Xbox One shipment data! Selling 1.1 million combined Xbox's that Q, and now assuming that the 360 shipped 450k, that leaves 650k for the Xbox One!

              Xbox One Hardware Unit Sales (Unit:Million)


  FY          Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr    Ap-Jn      FY      LTD

2013/14         -       3.9      1.2       0.6         5.7       5.7

Now that's one less mystery solved, gang. I also think I found out just why Xbox Family showed up. Look at the LTD for both these systems. The 360 is actually ahead of the One. Let that sink in, and maybe you could understand why MS would use Xbox family.

Quarter 1 (July-September)

Xbox 360

Now this is all completely out of my ass, so be warned.

Now then, with MS coming up to the holidays and out of the slower months, they will start to ramp up production. Seeing as the 360 is currently "dying", we aren't going to see it 400k a month like last year. If anything, we could see MS ramp up production 35% for over 200k per month meaning 600k for the Quarter or a 50% drop YOY.

              Xbox 360  Hardware Unit Sales (Unit:Million)


  FY          Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr    Ap-Jn      FY       LTD


2014/15        0.6      ?      ?       ?         ?        ?

Seems logical, right? 360 is going out the door, much less demand for it now that both the PS4 and Xbox One are out, so it's only logical that it's dropping fast.

Xbox One

Now that we have a number

Spoiler

pulled from the ass

it's just simple subtraction.

2,400,000 - 600,000 = 1,800,000

Presto! We have a winner!

With the unbundling of Kinect, that free's up a lot of Xbox Ones to roam free, and with the holidays coming up, MS might as well start stuffing the channel.

              Xbox One  Hardware Unit Sales (Unit:Million)


  FY          Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr    Ap-Jn      FY       LTD


2013/14         -       3.9      1.2       0.6         5.7       5.7

2014/15        1.8      ?      ?       ?         ?        ?

That means 7.5 million Xbox Ones have been shipped to consumers.

Now then, depending on how well the Wii U did, this could mean the Xbox One is now officially the No.2 best selling console shipped in the 8th Generation.

Well, there. That's what I think the numbers are at now, and if you have anything to add, please tell me.

Sorry for the long post!

 

[Miles X]

Man, I feel bad for her. She doesn't deserve this awful treatment.

What awful treatment? Nobody is talking ill of her now and although I agree with her stance entirely (and would like her to come back) it's all being blown out of proportion, people just got a bit argumentative over the aspect of how to share the numbers.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Welfare, suggesting 400k 360 shipped in Q4 FY13/14 [Apr-June] suggests a 60% YOY drop for that quarter while the largest drop YOY for the 3 previous quarters was 40%. I really don't see that as likely.

Financial Year 2012/2013 -> 2013/2014 YOY changes for 360 shipments
------------------------------------------------

Quarter    |   Q1   |    Q2  |    Q3  |    Q4  |
------------------------------------------------
FY12/13    |   1.7  |   5.9  |   1.3  |   1.0  |
FY13/14    |   1.2  |   3.5  |   0.8  |   ???  |
------------------------------------------------
YOY Change | -29.5% | -40.5% | -38.5% |   ???

Average YOY change = -36.2%

With Q1 FY14/15 360 shipments I'm not sure why that would then be a 50% drop YOY

You're suggesting the trend is something like 30% drop, 40% drop, 39% drop, 60% drop, 50% drop. Doesn't seem the most logical approach to the situation even if one was to assume the bottom was falling out of 360 sales as why would it go up to a 60% drop YOY and then drop back down?

I should really pull up calendar 2013 NPD 360 sales and compare them to calendar 2014 NPD sales to get a better idea of how consistent the YOY drop is from quarter to quarter

 

[shinra-bansho]

I should really pull up calendar 2013 NPD 360 sales and compare them to calendar 2014 NPD sales to get a better idea of how consistent the YOY drop is from quarter to quarter

CYQ1: -67.6%
CYQ2: -50.5%
CYQ3: -53.6%

It's hard to compare sell-through and shipments directly though, given sell-through is retrospective, but in some respects shipments are prospective i.e. shipments recorded on September 30th likely won't be sold-through in the quarter.

 

[ethomaz]

I'm a bit skeptical about this 60% drop for 360 estimates... I have the feeling it is doing better than most people expect here.

700k is my personal estimate but well I can be wrong

 

[Final Verdict]

The U.S. is pretty clearly the One's strongest region though. Also most likely to buy a $4-$500 console.

Not saying that isn't a fine estimate, just that it probably overstates One adoption.

Its a good point, but I could also point out that it seems like people in those other countries outside the US didn't mind spending $400 to pick up a PS4, so why would price suddenly be an obstacle to that demographic when it comes to the X1?

Also, saying the ratio couldn't work because US is One's strongest territory doesn't work as US is also 360's strongest territory....I could agree to the ratio being a bit different for the rest of the world, but probably not too much different

Lets just say that for the rest of the world, Xbox consoles have been selling at a 65-35 spilt for X1-360 (totally a hypothetical number)
Well considering that the rest of the world is probably %50 of Xbox's market (maybe less), combining that with the Xbox's US rate of 72-28 would round out to be a 68-32 global rate, which is still 1,632,000 X1 Units sold (around 78k difference).

 

[Lynn616]

May I ask what matric you are using to make this statement, the 'which it is' in particular? As far as I can tell the Xbox is loosing money every quarter and in particular since the Xbox One was introduced due to higher cost of revenue.

And at the end of the day sales numbers are nice for us, but revenue is what counts to investors!

Where are you seeing that the Xbox lost money?

 

[Miles X]

X360 is clearly doing very well outside of the states. Where it's seeing drops over 50% yoy, it's only down 40% yoy.

US used to be 50% of 360 sales but it's more like 30% these days.

 

[shinra-bansho]

X360 is clearly doing very well outside of the states. Where it's seeing drops over 50% yoy, it's only down 40% yoy.

US used to be 50% of 360 sales but it's more like 30% these days.

I don't really know where on earth you're pulling any of these numbers from.

 

[hawk2025]

The sell/shipped comparison is particularly hopeless given the low shipments and stuffed channels in the past quarter, coupled with the launch in several additional territories.

As much as I enjoy a prediction with limited data, I wouldn't even venture a guess for this one right now, unless we have some solid info on sell-through and stock rates for the launches in the new areas.

 

[Aces&Eights]

Why would they give a shit on how much they're selling when they just made 24 bil. Theyre making bank

Investors care very much for every single penny lost. I'm not saying they are losing money in the gaming division but from an investment standpoint, if one area of company is underperforming, most would vote to cut it and take on something more profitable.

An investor isn't just going to say, "Oh, well, look at the total MS revenue. Its a lot! Great!"

They want a breakdown of each division. They want to see if there is fat that could be trimmed to yield them a higher return next quarter. Again, I'm not saying MS gaming is in any type of trouble but you need to remember they answer to stockholders, not gamers.

 

[Biker19]

What awful treatment? Nobody is talking ill of her now and although I agree with her stance entirely (and would like her to come back) it's all being blown out of proportion, people just got a bit argumentative over the aspect of how to share the numbers.

Just saying, if Canis lupus & Goldmund haven't started this shit of theirs in the first place, then none of this would've happened.

 

[Miles X]

I don't really know where on earth you're pulling any of these numbers from.

A) US typically 50% of 360 - Userbase is around 42m~ there, WW shipments are 84m~

B) Down 40% YOY I'm talking about the first Q where it's down 40% yoy (1.3m to 800k) and others and I assuming the drop has been similar last 2 Q's.

C) NPD last Q was 170k vs the 600k~? shipments people are estimating? Q before that 190k NPD Vs another 500k~, Q before that 270k vs verified 800k shipments.

Anything else?

Just saying, if Canis lupus & Goldmund haven't started this shit of theirs in the first place, then none of this would've happened.

Ooh, well the former doesn't surprise me, and yeah they had no place doing what they did and should have been grateful. Some people are entitled though unfortunately.

Anyway, she'll be back for the holidays, far too much juicy stuff she won't be able to resist spilling ;-)

 

[shinra-bansho]

Anything else?

It seemed like you were drawing some sort of conclusion based on actual numbers rather than layer upon layer upon layer of assumption.

 

[Miles X]

It seemed like you were drawing some sort of conclusion based on actual numbers rather than layer upon layer upon layer of assumption.

Where are my assumptions exactly? I laid out evidence for you. A) has facts, B) has facts and estimates from me and others, C) has facts.

 

[Chobel]

A) US typically 50% of 360 - Userbase is around 42m~ there, WW shipments are 84m~

B) Down 40% YOY I'm talking about the first Q where it's down 40% yoy (1.3m to 800k) and others and I assuming the drop has been similar last 2 Q's.

C) NPD last Q was 170k vs the 600k~? shipments people are estimating? Q before that 190k NPD Vs another 500k~, Q before that 270k vs verified 800k shipments.

Anything else?

About C: just because they sold X in NPD doesn't mean they shipped exactly X to US in that quarter. We have no idea to know how much MS is shipping to US.

 

[Biker19]

Ooh, well the former doesn't surprise me, and yeah they had no place doing what they did and should have been grateful. Some people are entitled though unfortunately.

I agree. And shit like this is exactly why I get upset when some other posters start derailing threads & starts bashing me for my opinions for no real reason (when mostly talking about Microsoft & their screw-ups).

Something like what moderator besada said in the other thread right here in the 2nd sentence should be posted in every single thread.