I agree with you, and others, that their new strategy may not work out for them in the console market. I just don't agree that it's absolutely certain the market will reject it.
It's a hard sell. Any new thing is, and nothing is certain. Microsoft may pull it off, of course. Even though I don't think they'll pull it off, if anyone is in a position to do it, it's Microsoft. In the event that the market accepts Microsoft's "platform" and it becomes wildly successful, it would make major waves in the gaming industry in the PC, app device, and console markets, there's no doubt about that. It would give them a nearly-insurmountable advantage over Sony and Nintendo. Again, assuming the market accepts it.
I think in the case that it does fail the Xbox team would focus on making games for the devices where they are seeing MAU growth and revenue.
That's the beauty. This move allows Microsoft to adjust if their plan fails or if the bottom falls out on the traditional console market. It's a smart move in a certain respect. But it's definitely a move away from traditional consoles.
EDIT: I have some pretty strong opinions as well that I would like the traditional console market to die ASAP. I hate all the hardware, but I love all the games so I have no choice. I am looking forward to the day I don't need to purchase a proprietary device from Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft. My dream world looks something like a Apple phone, a Windows laptop, and a Sony TV, where I have access to everything on the Windows Store, PSN, Steam, iTunes, etc. Not sure I'll see that in my life time, but I am feeling pretty confident that the traditional console business is coming to an end and I couldn't be happier about it.
I feel the complete opposite. Consoles have always been a curious realm of innovation. Sure, they lag behind in many ways, but I personally love the strange marriage of hardware specs, UI, controller design, console philosophy, and so forth. This unique concoction has led to some of the most revolutionary videogames ever created, and I feel we'd be losing that to a certain degree if the traditional console model went away.
Even though we feel different, I'm not saying you're wrong and I'm right. Just replying to your opinion, that's all.
Okay, I see what you're saying. It's true consoles are less important to Microsoft than they are to Sony or Nintendo, and that this could transition Xbox from being a platform in and of itself to being simply one of several portals to a platform. The main fear I still see throughout this thread though is that we'll no longer see games optimized specifically for that one box, and I think that fear is unfounded at this point.
This move definitely comes with the risk of games no longer being optimized for "that one box" and I'll explain below.
When developers make software for platforms based on multiple pieces of hardware, they tend to optimize around the most popular common denominator, not necessarily the newest or most powerful one. I don't think you're going to see Windows 10 games that run at 15fps on Xbox.
I'm not worried about that. At a basic level, I'm sure Microsoft will expect games to run on all hardware at an acceptable framerate and resolution until the hardware version is phased out.
More people will still play those AAA games on Xbox, so they'll be optimized for Xbox. This is technically already the case, as developers make games for Xbox and PC, but optimize around Xbox because they know more copies will sell on Xbox. The only way Xbox eventually disappears is if people start favoring all the other devices over Xbox. The only way support for the base "original" Xbox One get's dropped is if the majority of the audience dumps it for the upgraded models.
I do not have a strong opinion on this topic. There's been back-and-forth discussion about the dangers of multiple SKUs and how the Windows API will make things all better etc etc etc but I don't necessarily feel strongly either way. I can see how the multiple SKUs would be bad as well as good for devs. I can see how customers would love it and how it would confuse them. Again, no strong opinion.
Rather, my concern is far more fundamental.
Previously, Xbox One was the tip of the spear for Microsoft's gaming division. Even with Windows integration looming on the horizon, it was still the tip of that spear. It was Microsoft's premium gaming device where developers made games exclusively for it, where the hardware was pushed to its limits, and where gamers were promised a premium (or, ahem, First Class) experience.
For starters, (for the most part) games are no longer being developed exclusively for the Xbox One console hardware. Let's not confuse the issue by trying to expand the definition of "platform". It is a simple fact. Microsoft is not going to make Xbox One console hardware exclusives any more.
This may or may not have ramifications. Maybe Microsoft's APIs will negate any and all problems. Maybe Xbox One hardware is already so flexible that developing cross-platform on PC and XBox One will be the same as developing exclusively. That all may be true.
But developing a game multiplatform has always had consequences in the past. Always. Again, maybe Microsoft will buck that trend? Who knows? But it is foolishness to pretend that Microsoft isn't trying to buck that trend. It's foolishness to act as if this is a different situation. It's not. A console's library just went multiplatform, and even though the same company owns the other piece of the platform, it's still a split between two platforms. The end. Microsoft appears to have a lot of mechanisms in place to make this work and lessen the impact, but it is still a fact that Xbox One is now pretty much a multiplatform machine.
On top of that, Microsoft's messaging makes it clear that Xbox One is now only
one of many. It is not Microsoft's focus. It is not the tip of the spear. Games aren't being made to take advantage of its unique hardware or unique capabilities. In the very same way that Xbox moving away from the "traditional console model" may have good and bad consequences (you'd have to be silly to not admit that there are pros and cons to this decision), Xbox moving away from traditional console exclusives may have good and bad consequences. I can't think of many good consequences because this hasn't really been tried before. I can think of plenty of examples of bad consequences when a console loses its exclusives, though.
As such, my concern is that first-party development will suffer.
Let me put it another way on a new line for everyone to see:
my concern is that the Xbox One will no longer be the best place to play Xbox exclusives. If that is the case, what's the value of getting the Xbox console? I understand that multiplatform games will almost never be "best" on consoles (assuming they have a PC equivalent), but for exclusives, what does this mean?