There are two ways to look at UFCs second live event on FS 1, held on 8/28 from the Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
The show did a 0.69 rating and 824,000 viewers. The good news is that if youre comparing it to the 160,000 or so viewers that FS 1 has been averaging in prime time, its a major success.
The bad news is that UFCs first event on FS 1, just 11 days earlier, did a 1.38 rating and 1,782,000 viewers. So this show did less than half the number of viewers and half the rating. The success of the first show seemed to indicate that most of the fan base that watches UFC on television would seek out and find a show that they wanted to see. FS 1 was a new station, in a new dial position, so its wasnt on your familiar channel list. Sure, that card would have done more than 2 million viewers on FX, and even more than that during the Spike era, but it likely was going to deliver almost no fans switching around to their favorite channels on a Saturday night and suddenly see theres a UFC show. Plus, as far as audience goes FX is in nine percent more homes.
But the rating underscores a bigger issue when it comes to UFC, which is one that the financial success of the big shows has hidden. In a business of making stars, the companys secondary-level stars are far less popular than they were a few years ago. Thats part of the reason why the top level shows are remaining strong but you have rank-and-file shows doing so-so.
As far as why, there are different factors in play. One is the number of shows and number of fighters on the roster making it overwhelming for anyone except the niche that lives and breathes the sport (which includes its decision makers and almost all the hardcore fans that they hear from, and the media that covers it). The other have been the changes in television. The third factor is that possibly the number of stars with charisma is simply less. I think the product of adding more new weight classes has hurt, because when you had five champions, everyone knew all five off the top of their head and they were special. With nine champions, that is no longer the case, so both the champions and the top challengers lose steam because there is only so much room in the brain of average Joe Sports Fan to process when it comes to UFC. Plus, there are no Brock Lesnar and Kimbo Slices, and both of them brought great attention to the sport. The closest is Ronda Rousey, and she has an appeal, but its very different. And perhaps, with the quality of fighters constantly increasing, even the great ones on the way up, the stars dont have the ability to run through guys the way they did a few years ago so dont look as dominant.
While the FS 1 overall numbers for just about everything not UFC has been labeled a big disappointment, its not like ESPN didnt take years to get off the ground. FOX is a huge corporation and has earmarked huge money behind the channel. They are going to get Major League Baseball next season, college football starting now, and no doubt will bid heavily for an NFL game a week at some point. Its going to get stronger and more familiar over the next few years and right now were at the ground floor.
Still, the excuse that FS 1 is new for the rating of show No. 2 would hold water if it wasnt for the fact show No. 1 did double the number, and show No. 2 was heavily pushed during show No. 1. Show No. 2 wasnt as strong a show, but it was a quality Fight Night lineup that a large percentage of what were regular UFC television fans didnt watch.
Right now there are so many different things going on that make aspects of learning from history different. One thing is for sure. Too many shows lessens the value of the individual show. However, the financial dynamic of a business like UFC is completely different from other periods of time.
What they are doing now would have been suicide if it was during a period before television rights became the primary revenue stream for most sports. Running so many shows and falling ratings because of it would have made it less attractive for TV, and TV would have moved on. There are countless examples of this, including in boxing.
However, with so many niche sports networks out there, UFC is making far more money from television presenting lower rated television than it was from higher rated television years ago.
If youre talking financially, the company is likely to be taking in more money this year than any year in its history. The television contract is a fixed number regardless of popularity. And while right now they are only slightly above on PPV where they were at the same period last year, the final four months of the year should be huge as long as there arent key injuries ruining the marquee matches. And they have a far stronger international business, particularly in Brazil.
That said, here is a sobering look at the popularity of the individual show. On April 1, 2009, Carlos Condit, in his UFC debut, faced a good fighter without much of a following in Martin Kampmann, on Spike TV. Kampmann was 5-1 in UFC, but his only bout with a name fighter, Nate Marquardt, he was knocked out in 82 seconds. They did 1.9 million viewers for what ended up being one of the best fights of that year, a split decision win for Kampmann.
In the four plus years that followed, Kampmann had won six of ten, although two of those losses, once to Jake Shields and the other to Diego Sanchez, were decisions that easily could have gone the other way. And the latter was a fantastic fight, the type that both guys should have gotten more over in. But almost every fight was against a name fighter. From a name recognition standpoint, he should have been higher now than in 2009. Before he was thought of as a good fighter, but in six fights, his level was still to be determined. After ten more fights, his level was determined. He was not going to be a title contender, but he was a very good top-ten fighter, the type who would beat most guys, with his only decisive losses being a knockout from Paul Daley and another from Johny Hendricks.
Condit, on the other hand, should have been a far bigger star. He got three-week Countdown publicity on FX for a match with Nick Diaz, a PPV main event for the interim title that he won. He was part of a huge main event with GSP, and while he lost, he came closer to beating GSP than anyone in six years. And while he did lose a decision to Hendricks, it was the kind of a fight that should have elevated his stature. He was ranked No. 3 in the division, behind only GSP and Hendricks.
The same two participants, one a slightly bigger star, the other a much bigger star, drew barely one-third the audience that they had. Sure, part of it was UFC was established on Spike in 2009, and it was on FS 1 in 2013, a new channel. But the rating for the FS 1 debut showed people that most, not all, but most of the viewers that would watch UFC on cable are going to find a show that they want to see.
Less than half of them wanted to see this, on paper, solid show with a high quality TV main event. The first rating says point blank you can only blame the station so much. And you cant blame the station one iota for the drop-off in audience from 8/17 to 8/28. Nor can you blame market conditions or claim the difference between the two numbers is because UFC is losing popularity, because in 11 days, thats not the case.
The answer is that there is so much UFC, that people are going to find the big stuff, and if its not big, theyll skip it because there is too much content to try and keep up with. But even at these depreciated levels, its a big success for a station struggling to find its calling. And UFC is holding up a whole lot better than boxing, which debuted with a Golden Boy promotions show to 156,000 viewers going head-to-head with Raw on 8/19. And that number in no way means boxing is dying, just that boxing fans are not going to watch secondary fights.
Essentially, and this is an inevitable product, the base audience for the non top-tier shows, for both TV and PPV, has declined significantly. Whether it will continue a trend that has been going on for years, or will reverse with the idea their audience will grow as FS 1 grows, is the million dollar question.
This week is a big one with the start of The Ultimate Fighter season on 9/4. UFC has heavily promoted this show, and with the hook of Rousey and Miesha Tate as coaches and women and men in the house together, one would think the show would have done its biggest numbers to date on FX. Well probably know in week one, and certainly by week three, if UFC didnt, in a sense, sacrifice its potentially most attractive season of TUF in order to help build FS 1. I hate making predictions on things like this, but even in a worst case scenario, TUF is likely to be the closest thing to a hit weekly series on the station. But the lower the audience, the less effect the show will have for the 12/28 PPV, and the less impact it will have toward making the coaches and fighters into bigger stars to a larger fan base.
Another point that someone in the TV industry noted to us regarding TUF and Fight Night ratings, is that UFC is still a Southwest and West Coast concentrated sport. Based on interest level, California, Nevada, Washington, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and Hawaii are per capita the strongest states. Most of those states are Pacific time zone. Instead of the show airing in prime time from 10-11 p.m., in most of those places, because unlike FX and Spike, FS 1 doesnt have a staggered West Coast feed, the show will be 7-8 p.m., and this will hurt the numbers somewhat. For example, the 9/4 Fight Night on the West Coast airs from 2-7 p.m. on a Wednesday and with a prime audience Males 25-49, thats actually a killer for most.
Still, its success or failure has more to do with being on FS 1, and being promoted on FS 1, a new station, what the potential of a weekly series is and if the casual UFC fan finds it compelling enough to be cant miss weekly television. If enough people think the show is great, we saw by 8/17 that it can do well. But anything short of that kind of buzz, and its going to be hurt by being on the new station with the tiny base audience.
UFC is lacking in what I call the Rashad Evans level stars, as well as in making new big stars. Rousey became a star fighter last year on Showtime, really off the Tate fight and then the hype that followed. She was nobody in 2011, a big star in 2012, and as far as fan interest goes, the biggest UFC star of this year even though shes only fought once. It was the UFC publicity machine and media that took her to a different level this year and shes been the companys genuine new superstar success story. And make no mistake about it, the jury is still out on women as headliners long-term.
She did so with her hype specials on Fuel, but had an incredible amount of media surrounding her. Anderson Silva, Georges St-Pierre and Jon Jones remain as strong as ever, as does Chael Sonnen. But as far as the next level UFC stars, you have Cain Velasquez, Vitor Belfort, Nick Diaz and Miesha Tate, as well as Chris Weidman, who did get over more than any new male fighter this year. But Weidman also had to beat Anderson Silva to do so and really should be stronger than he is. But its the people like Evans, Dan Henderson, Benson Henderson, Gilbert Melendez, Demetrious Johnson, Jose Aldo, Rory MacDonald, Josh Koscheck and others, who have been put in main events, had exposure and hype specials, who dont have the kind of interest that they should have. Or enduring stars like Frank Mir, who may not be title contenders, but theyve been around, have been fighting in significant fights, but they dont have that level interest. This also ties into the struggles in the video game market, in the sense it has its audience but its not as hot to as many, and has less people who have that big star aura to the public.
This all ties together. The company is growing, particularly overseas. While we dont have the books, when it comes to the big revenue streams, which are TV money and PPV money, when 2013 is over, it should be the biggest year in company history, due to its international growth. Then again, if you ignore warning signs based on that, you are WCW in early 1998.
At the end of 2010, of the big 50 in last weeks issue, there were 21 people from UFC on the list when it comes to the home U.S. market. Right now, that number is 12, and Dana White is one of them (we had 13 on the list when published but it was done last minute and some retooling leaves us with 12). Essentially, youve got far more shows and far fewer marquee stars on those shows, and the people who should be the kind of second level stars who can bring people to the table on shows like this, well, thats exactly where they are hurting.
The hoped for situation is that as FS 1 grows, UFC, as prime property, will grow with it, and these type of shows will be back to the level of the Spike days. But I strongly believe being on Spike instead of ESPN all those years was a key to growth. On ESPN, they would have been a niche secondary sport, with the bulk of the promotion around the traditional top-tier sports. On Spike, they were the UFC channel and their events were heavily promoted in commercials and programming and for the stations marketing department, they were the biggest things on the station. If FS 1 gets to where it is hoped they would get, particularly if they get an NFL game in a few years, the station will grow. But UFC will never be its top priority. Right now it should be given its strength compared to all other programming coming out of the blocks.
With UFC having what looks to be on paper its strongest PPV stretch in a long time, its at a weak position advertising. Its still better than February, and they made a success of Rousey vs. Liz Carmouche off Countdown shows that only aired on Fuel, and GSP vs. Diaz was a giant success. The Countdowns on FX were doing close to 500,000 viewers and the FS 1 version for UFC 164 was 150,000. Its the TV hype shows that drew big numbers that were part of the companys growth on PPV and have been a big part of the biggest boxing and UFC PPV shows. Its also those shows that delve into the personalities that help create the interest that makes the new stars.
For years, when it comes to stars on the rise, UFC and WWE were dueling pretty much equal, but over the last year, WWE has taken the lead and this is the category you should most closely look at because its the one that is going to be a big part of the future.
Throwing out the enduring stars on both sides, when it comes to newer made stars, UFC has Rousey, Tate, Weidman and Alistair Overeem, the latter who had the great potential to be a star but it appears will flame out because with his last two knockout losses, its going to be tough to come back to relevance. Plus the jury is out on the women long-term, particularly if Rousey either loses twice or decides to leave for the movies. And even Weidman isnt a guarantee, because if hes not competitive on 12/28, hes not going to remain a big money player.
Of the real top tier fighters in UFC, Rousey is a unique situation. Silva is 38. GSP is still there at the top and not too old but I dont see GSP fighting once his inevitable decline starts and being like a Matt Hughes or Chuck Liddell or Randy Couture or B.J. Penn. For all anyone can say negative about Jon Jones, he is both young and great. On paper, hes the future of the company in the U.S. market, which is why UFC is so careful these days in how hes presented, particularly since the incident last year with Dan Henderson did him no favors from a marketing standpoint.
But his issues in connecting with the public may keep him from being the star his ability has the potential of being. Sonnen is 36 and I dont think anyone is counting on him inside the cage three years from now. Tate is a good fighter, not a great fighter, who is along for the Rousey rivalry, but as far as being an enduring superstar, I dont see it, unless she wins the second fight and a third fight then becomes even bigger. If she loses a second time, shes just a pretty girl on the roster.
Velasquez is a guy who is only going to be a draw as long as hes champion, and thats a matter of his body holding up and somebody great coming along. Hes very popular with Hispanics, a market that UFC has been slow in breaking into. The belief is because of the popularity of boxing and wrestling in that culture, UFC will have similar success. Pretty much nobody dislikes him, but he doesnt have the charisma and personality to reach the level that his fighting ability could take him.
Three years ago at this time, you had a Brock Lesnar, and nobody in UFC can replicate that and its not really fair because they probably wont ever get another one just like that. GSP and Silva were right there in 2010, only three years younger. You had Penn, and the difference between Penn and Benson Henderson and Anthony Pettis is huge. You had Kimbo Slice, another freak who didnt last and wasnt going to last and the changes in society and knowledge surrounding MMA and depth of skill level pretty much make the Kimbo Slice and Tank Abbott type characters obsolete.
In 2010, Velasquez was actually significantly bigger because of the rub of beating Lesnar than he is now. You had Carwin, who ended up not meaning a great deal to the future due to injuries. You had the legends like Couture, Liddell, Ortiz and Hughes who could still draw and UFC really doesnt have that dynamic right now. You had the colorful Rampage Jackson, who was still in the top mix. You had the antagonists in Sonnen and Evans, both three years younger, who could put up big numbers with the right foe. With the exception of Sonnen, Im not sure theres anyone on the UFC roster who fits that bill. And this is key, you even had Dan Hardy. This is a key character when comparing a few years ago to today. This was a guy who they were able to take as a nobody, who had some good charisma himself, and they were able to create him as a top draw with one month of TV. To make that dynamic work, you need the right personality, the aura of great punching power and the super over champion. For example, Conor McGregor has everything Dan Hardy had as far as charisma, and really for his size, has more knockout power, but will he have a three week Countdown vehicle with a great storyline (Matt Serra trains Dan Hardy to beat GSP) that gets 700,000 viewers or more?
There is no evidence of any similar erosion when it comes to top-tier PPV shows because those big four, Silva, St-Pierre, Jones and Rousey, are as strong as ever. When I was running the numbers last week, and I try to do this twice a year for patterns, the thing that really surprised me was how much from an interest level the secondary level UFC stars for the most part had fallen.
When there is a fight people want to see, theyll watch it, whether its TV or PPV. For all the talk of how everyones friends no longer watch MMA, when the big fight comes, like GSP vs. Diaz, the numbers are there. This is the exact thing that happened to boxing and it was probably inevitable for MMA in some form, but not necessarily inevitable for UFC as the major league. And as long as television is willing to pay money for hundreds of thousands of viewers of sports, as opposed to millions, the company is making far more money while most shows are going to draw less viewers. But make no mistake about it, the 2009 vs. 2013 Condit vs. Kampmann numbers tell a major story when it comes to popularity of a normal show.
The Condit vs. Kampmann main event peaked at 1.02 million viewers.
The show did lower numbers than every UFC live event ever on FX or Spike in history. It beat every Fuel show, but thats hardly a fair comparison. When it comes to viewers, it beat four of six UFC events on Versus, but Versus was also in those days in 75 million homes vs. 89.2 million for FS 1. A straight ratings comparison is a fairer look, and when it comes to every non-Fuel televised live (or same day tape delayed) show in company history, only one card in history, ironically the classic Sanchez vs. Kampmann fight, which did a 0.67, was lower rated.
For bragging rights, in the 18-49 overall demo, the show was nowhere near No. 1 like the last card, or even near the top on cable. In the money demo, they were down 59% from the first show, from a 1.33 to a 0.55. Still, they more than doubled ESPNs number for a Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox game in the 18-49 demo. They did a 0.93 overall in Males 18-49 and 0.17 with women. Usually the UFC TV split is around 70/30, and in the money demo, it was 85/15, and that either says this show had no appeal to women, or in the guys watching with their wife or girlfriend department, well, they chose something else. The show overall lost to the new episode of WWE Main event, which did a 0.8 overall rating and 1.2 million viewers, but probably beat it in the key demos since WWE draws so many more younger and older viewers.
The prelims on FS 2 did a 0.25 rating and 109,000 viewers. The second hour of prelims aired on both FS 1 and FS 2, with the FS 1 hour doing a 0.08 rating and 114,000 viewers. The decision to air those prelims wasnt made until the day of the show and wasnt publicized at all.