Bellator's attempt to break into PPV was canceled just eight days in advance with a lot of questions unanswered.
The company held a press conference on 10/25, just eight days before the 11/2 show, to announce that Tito Ortiz suffered a fractured neck, and that even though willing, there was no way they would allow him to fight. Instead of giving Quinton Jackson a new opponent, he was pulled from the show, which was then moved from PPV to Spike TV.
Spike announced a three-hour show starting at 9 p.m. Eastern, featuring originally scheduled PPV fights with Michael Chandler (12-0) vs. Eddie Alvarez (24-3) for the lightweight title, King Mo Lawal (11-2) vs. Emanuel Newton (21-7-1) for the interim light heavyweight title, Pat Curran (19-4) vs. Daniel Straus (21-4) for the featherweight title, Joe Riggs (39-14) vs. Mike Bronzoulis (15-5) in the Fight Master tournament final and opening with Akop Stepanyan (13-6) vs. Mike Richman (15-3).
There will also be five prelims starting at 7 p.m. Eastern on Spike.com. Former UFC star Karo Parisyan, who was scheduled to face Cristiano Souza, from the cast of Fight Master, also pulled out of the show due to injury. Souza will still be on the undercard against Alejandro Garcia.
Jackson will now face recent UFC cut Joey Beltran, a mid-level slugger with a great ability to take punishment, in the main event of the 11/15 show at Revel in Atlantic City.
This season's heavyweight tournament final, Cheick Kongo vs. Vinicius Spartan (Vinicius Queiroz), scheduled as the main event of the pre-show on Spike, is now out due to Spartan tearing his ACL. Since that injury will require somewhere around eight months to a year off, they in this case need to either bring back Lavar Johnson, who lost to Spartan, and have him face Kongo in a new final when Johnson is ready (he'll have to sit out time since he was knocked out by Spartan), or just declare Kongo the tournament winner. They have some time to wait since heavyweight champion Alexander Volkov still has to face Vitali Minakov, before the Kongo vs. Spartan winner was scheduled for his title shot. But it makes no sense to hold Kongo and the tournament final off for as long as it would take for Spartan to return. The fight had originally been moved to the main event spot on the 11/8 show in Thackerville, OK.
Ortiz was said to have suffered the injury, a fractured C-6 vertebrae, although no explanation was given past it was in training, on 10/19. Bellator CEO Bjorn Rebney and Spike President Kevin Kay said they went through various options and ideas before making their decision.
The show was unlikely to do well in a PPV market where even with the major promotion, the UFC, people are becoming more and more selective in their purchases. Whatever appeal Jackson vs. Ortiz had was closer to Rashad Evans vs. Dan Henderson, two superstars who haven't done as well of late but have been long-time big names. That show did less than 150,000 buys even with the UFC brand name and its level of promotion. Spike had promoted the hell out of the show with commercials all over not just Spike but several other Viacom cable stations. Spike also took out a full page ad in this week's issue of Sports Illustrated, which doesn't come cheap. It, of course, lists the old card and specifies it as a PPV.
Coming in a period when UFC has a number of major shows on the horizon, the only way this would have done well is if it caught fire in the last week, and there were no signs of that happening. The advance wasn't strong, which isn't a fool-proof indicator, but more often than not is a good one.
Rebney said they had Attila Vegh, their light heavyweight champion, in training camp, but he was more there to back up if there was an in jury to Lawal or Newton. Why a light heavyweight champion would be in training and on weight to back up a match third from the top but not the main event is a question that wasn't fully answered. Granted, there would be limited interest in Jackson vs. Vegh, and Bellator's doctrine about title matches being earned would not have allowed it to be a title match. Plus, Jackson had been training for a three-round fight, so it would have had to have been a title fight.
But as far as those who had purchased tickets, at least they'd get to see Jackson, who was probably the biggest drawing card for the live show. Now they paid to see a main event where neither man is fighting on the show. And while it may not have been a great fight, and Chandler vs. Alvarez was more likely to have stolen the show based on their previous fight, it's more than likely most of the people buying tickets, particularly in Long Beach, since Jackson and Ortiz are both Southern California guys, came to see the headliners.
Jackson himself seemed unclear what was going on for him, because even after the announcement, he was tweeting about how he hoped he was still on the card. Rebney had said at the press conference that Jackson would be fighting on one of the usual Friday night shows, "hopefully before Thanksgiving," noting Jackson had trimmed to 220 pounds and was in shape ready to fight. Given Vegh was in shape and ready to fight, it seems strange that isn't the fight made. Jackson himself threw out the name of Kimbo Slice, a heavyweight who has moved over to low-level boxing, who was once a big MMA draw but hasn't even trained in the sport for years, as a prospective opponent, but he seemed like he was just talking without really having any idea what was going on.
The other option would have been Jackson vs. Lawal and Vegh vs. Newton in a title match, given Newton had earned the title shot before Lawal to begin with. On the surface that seems like a good idea. But what was strange, with Ortiz being hurt on 10/19, Lawal, like pretty much everyone, never even found out about it until 10/25.
"I told em I'd fight Quinton, too," Lawal said.
An issue here is Spike has a ton invested in Jackson. They want him as a PPV draw, if that's possible. They are talking about a full ten episode season of a Rampage reality show, when he's not in training and can be out having fun. Ortiz was probably a safe opponent, since Jackson was a favorite in that fight. With Lawal, there is significantly more danger of him losing. Beltran is nowhere near the level of Jackson, although he would have the ability to possibly outlast Jackson because he is tough if Jackson were to show up out of shape. But stylistically, he's tailor made for an entertaining Jackson win.
Then again, they were close to making a fight with Jackson vs. Roy Jones Jr. under boxing rules, that Jackson would have likely lost. The only explanation I can come up with for Jackson not being on the show is that once it was taken off PPV, they figured they would try and get two good ratings out of it (one for Chandler vs. Alvarez and one for Jackson) instead of one.
The odds were that this PPV was not going to be successful. Taking Jackson and Ortiz off the payroll, it may be an expensive weekly show, but it should do better than usual television numbers, as should a Jackson fight against anyone. As far as the economic hit, it's impossible to ascertain. My gut says they actually save substantial money on the night because the PPV revenue was not going to cover anywhere near what Jackson and Ortiz were being paid.
However, the expense of Jackson's salary is still there, just listed for another show. The belief may have been that putting Jackson in a television fight, they have a lot more leeway as to opponents than putting him in a PPV fight, which Beltran as the foe seems to bear out. But given his contract, it's likely to blow away the budget for a regular Friday night show, so some of the savings on 11/2 are going to be major losses on 11/15.
They'll save money on Ortiz not fighting, but Ortiz is still under contract and will likely still try to fight, perhaps even against Jackson because it's the only fight that can even come close to justifying Ortiz's contract, when he gets healthy. So that expense is still there. The question becomes do they again try it on PPV, and does Ortiz try and get ready for a fight again when he really should retire.
As far as the costs of putting a show on Spike vs. PPV, there are some differences but based on speaking to a promoter in the industry, it's not really a major thing. Traditionally, the promotion pays the PPV costs, while the station pays the costs of the satellite hook-ups for television. In this case, Peter and Paul are the same, in the sense, while Bellator is a company under Viacom, the parent company of Spike TV, it is owned and funded by Viacom. So the difference is basically how much revenue can be made based on television sponsorship of the event being put on with eight days to spare vs. the combination of the corporate sponsorship of the event (by essentially the same sponsors) and whatever PPV revenue comes in. Keep in mind that the sponsorship revenue is likely not to be all that different since Spike had scheduled the prelims from 8-10 p.m. leading to the PPV, and instead, it's the main card from 9 p.m. to midnight. So essentially they are out whatever PPV revenue the event would have drawn, which was likely to have been in the $850,000 range for 50,000 buys, plus whatever added revenue they get for another hour of Bellator content.
The event will have greater visibility to the public as a television event and is the best card they've put on to date, but it will feel less important. A PPV show has far more impact to those who see it because it's a special stage than a television show, and the events become more memorable. But less people will see it.
When Spike purchased Bellator, the model was roughly 26 weekly fight shows per year, ancillary programming such as reality shows (Fight Master was a bomb in the ratings and the second season hasn't been ordered). Gym Rescue with Randy Couture is currently in production. The idea is also to possibly do a ten-episode Rampage 4 Real reality series based on a period when he's not training for a fight. The idea was the big money would be made eventually on PPV, as in the UFC business model.
The idea was not to do what UFC and WWE have done, with the monthly PPVs with dates booked well in advance and filling in matches for the dates, but do the boxing model of getting the right main event, and then booking the date.
Jackson vs. Ortiz was heavily criticized as the first main event, but there was no better alternative. While nostalgia, in bringing back Ken Shamrock and Royce Gracie in 2006 did work huge in the PPV market for MMA, times have changed with the glut of shows. What we don't know is if Bellator is like TNA, in the sense that the PPV ceiling is somewhat limited simply based on No. 1 having too many shows so there is limited interest in anything done by a No. 2. Bellator doesn't appear to have a huge distinct audience, and its TV audience could be like TNA, in the sense they are MMA fans who will watch it for free, but aren't willing to pay for the product.
There was a time not that long ago when Jackson vs. Ortiz under the UFC banner would have easily topped 300,000 buys, but today, it would probably be closer to 130,000 to 200,000. Removing the UFC name from the banner, and it's uncharted water what it would mean other than no promotion other than Zuffa has been able to successfully do MMA on PPV in the U.S. Affliction didn't do badly in the sense they got six figure buys, and without a television outlet. But they lost their ass badly because the amount they spent on talent was too far out of whack and they lost millions per event.
Ortiz was said to have been in tremendous pain, to the point he didn't even want to fly to Las Vegas to see the doctor who did his neck surgery, to be examined after his injury. The injury is said to have not been related to his previous neck problems. He got his MRI results, revealing the fracture, on 10/23. However, he was on TSN's "Off the Record" on 10/24 (which I believe was taped with him being at a studio in Southern California on 10/23), still promoting his fight.
Rebney claimed Ortiz said he was wanting to go through with the fight, but he wouldn't allow it after hearing the doctor warn that if he was slammed and landed badly, Ortiz was risking permanent paralysis. He made no estimate of when Ortiz would be ready to fight, saying doctors told them that it's possible Ortiz would not be able to fight again. Ortiz has had a history of back, neck and knee problems, and pulled out of his 2010 fight with Chuck Liddell after doing the season coaching Ultimate Fighter due to a worsening neck issue. The injuries resulted in his retirement last year when his UFC contract expired.
In his last several years in UFC, it had become a broken record where he would claim before every fight to have been in his best shape since 2003 and injury free, only to, after the fight, list his injuries that allowed him to do only limited training. Since his two wins over Ken Shamrock in 2006, he's gone 1-7-1, and had pulled out of a few scheduled top fights due to injuries. Granted, that was mostly against top-level competition, and he was competitive in most of those fights. He was once again declaring himself in his best condition in years, even though the reality is he had just had reconstructive knee surgery in May, and was scheduled to fight five months later. Generally after that surgery, the earliest someone fights is about nine months. Just that fact alone told how much Bellator was throwing the dice in making this match.
With the change, Spike has also changed its television plans for building up the show. The third episode of Rampage 4 Real that was scheduled to air after Impact on Halloween night was going to be re-edited and will air after Impact on 11/14. In its place, from 11 p.m. to midnight on Halloween night will be, first, a 30 minute Chandler vs. Alvarez special that debuted on 10/28. Alvarez came off very compelling in the show and they didn't go into detail on the legal and contract situation, but it was mentioned about how important this fight is to Alvarez, far more than any fight in his career, because of the ramifications. He also made a remark about how it would feel for Rebney to have to strap the title belt on him. Appearing on the special to hype the fight included UFC fighters Dan Henderson, Michael Johnson and Ross Pearson, which is the equivalent of WWE stars appearing on a TNA Countdown special. Immediately following will be a newly-edited 30 minute Countdown special promoting all three title bouts.
Chandler vs. Alvarez for the lightweight title is a rematch of the November 19, 2011, fight in Hollywood, FL, where Chandler beat Alvarez via choke in the fourth round in what was among the greatest MMA fights of all-time, and easily the best and most memorable fight in Bellator history.
Moving this show to Spike with a Chandler vs. Alvarez headliner could have been very telling from a legal standpoint. When Alvarez was attempting to sign with UFC after his Bellator deal expired, Bellator claimed that as part of matching the UFC offer, they were going to give him similar points on a PPV show he would headline with Chandler in his first fight back. The points started at 200,000 buys, which was where the UFC contract offer started. For UFC, his debut was scheduled for the Georges St-Pierre vs. Nick Diaz show as the semifinal, meaning his PPV points would have ended up being worth more than $1 million. For Bellator, which had no chance to do 200,000 buys, those points were worth nothing. However, by moving this fight, even with Chandler vs. Alvarez still on the card and now as the main event, showed Bellator did not have the confidence in the two to actually put them in a PPV main event.
For Alvarez at this stage, it doesn't seem to matter about the move of the fight to TV. If anything, it's a positive for the fighters on the show since they'll be seen by far more people. By all rights, this should be Bellator's most-watched event in its history.
The belief is that Alvarez, if he wins, will only have to fight once more with Bellator and he's an unrestricted free agent. If he loses this fight, he's an unrestricted free agent. It should be noted that while these terms have not been said to be inaccurate by either side, neither side confirmed them and Alvarez's side put out a statement saying that the terms are confidential and that people shouldn't be speculating about them. The terms are actually a major part of the behind-the-scenes story.
If Alvarez wins, most likely a third Chandler fight would be arranged. It's the ultimate sink-or-swim scenario for Alvarez. If he loses to Chandler, there is a question whether UFC would sign him. I would expect they would if it's a great competitive fight, but there's no guarantees UFC would make a substantial offer to a good fighter coming off two straight losses to the champion of the rival organization. In a sense, if Alvarez loses this fight, and then comes in and does damage in UFC, it gives Chandler tremendous credibility. Even if UFC would sign him, there's no way he'd be able to get a deal on the level of his original offer.
Alvarez is, or at least was before all the pressure he's been under, an exciting and charismatic fighter, so, unless he's blown out in the first round or looks bad, he would be of value to UFC as far as potentially exciting matches with a ton of different fighters in UFC's deepest division.
If he wins twice, then Bellator loses big. It would mean that Alvarez will have beaten Chandler, generally considered the company's best fighter, twice, and would then leave the promotion for UFC, where at that point he would likely get a strong offer and would walk in with a superstar level of promotion.
Bellator is banking that Alvarez can't beat Chandler twice in a row. It's a bet where the odds favor Bellator, since Chandler has looked outstanding since winning the title, beating Akihiro Gono and David Rickels both in less than one minute, and completely dominating Rick Hawn, leading to a second round stoppage, in his three bouts since.
That quiet storyline, only known to a few, is actually the most interesting thing about this week's show.
