For all the talk in recent years about boxing being a dying sport, the annual ESPN Sports poll found more people who said they were fans of boxing than fans of WWE pro wrestling or UFC.
The annual poll was a reversal. More people overall, since UFC was listed in the poll as a major sports property in 2007, have always said they are fans of boxing because UFC has few fans over 45, while that generation grew up with boxing. But thats people who said they had some interest in it.
For people who claimed they were avid fans, MMA was ahead of boxing from 2006 to 2010. Boxing went back ahead last year. It was more a decline of MMA than an increase in boxing, as 13.3% of people claimed to be avid MMA fans on average between 2007 and 2010. That number has fallen to 11.7% on average in the 2011 and 2012 polls.
ESPN spoke with Lorenzo Fertitta of UFC for his reaction to the decline.
Our sport is built on stars and rivalries, and we have had key injuries to stars, so thats part of it. We also changed networks and know it takes time for people to get reconnected. That said, we know the key is building relationships between the fans and the fighters and we believe while social networking helps, the power for us to do that is still television. So we are working to re-establish the familiarity of where to find us on TV and grooming the stars, stories, and rivalries for the future while we make the most of what we have now.
A big thing regarding the future is that not necessarily on a weekly basis, where WWE is really going to be the biggest of the three because of its television being a product more will watch, but when it comes to the public at large and casual fans, boxing looks to be a growing sport, not a declining sport. A big key is the emergence in numbers of the Hispanic audience, where boxing is the second biggest sport next to soccer. Those numbers have increased over the past decade from 37.4 million to 50.7 million, and will continue to increase over the next decade. What makes that strange is that pro wrestling is twice as popular with the Hispanic audience in the U.S. than the white audience, so whatever growth boxing should have because of it should be mirrored by wrestling. Its hard to say why that isnt the case. Boxing hasnt had that superstar Hispanic since Oscar De La Hoya, and wrestling really hasnt had one in decades. Eddy Guerrero was close before his death and was the biggest since the heyday of Mil Mascaras (who was a superstar only regionally in the U.S.), but to really draw from that type of audience, the guy has to be No. 1, not No. 5 when it comes to being pushed as the serious top star of the brand.
When it comes to the 2012 poll, when asked if you had any interest in the sport, broken down into Demos:
M 12-17 M-18-34 M35-54 M55+
Boxing 70.1% 66.6% 56.0% 43.4%
WWE 40.9% 35.6% 31.7% 20.8%
UFC 65.6% 67.4% 48.7% 27.5%
Of course the first thing youll note is that TV ratings completely contradict these numbers. But having any interest would mean some curiosity and lets face it, PPV does tell you outright when the big event comes, whether its a Mayweather fight, a major UFC fight like Silva vs. Sonnen, or a WWE WrestleMania, the interest level overall is boxing, then UFC and then WWE.
Next well look at women.
W12-17 W18-34 W354-54 W55+
Boxing 43.5% 41.2% 28.1% 15.7%
WWE 35.9% 24.6% 16.4% 10.0%
UFC 52.5% 44.0% 27.6% 15.0%
Still, you go to a WWE, a boxing event and a UFC event in the same city, which I do all the time, and WWE draws an audience with far more kids and teens. UFC did, although that is greatly declining, draw the dressed up rich guys, dressed up women, late 20s and 30s dating audience. Wrestling draws very little of that. Boxing draws even less.
The wrestling I grew up with drew people from almost every age group, lots of older people in particular. Every city with regular wrestling that had any kind of a promotion would see the first several rows filled with older people who had season tickets and got them due to seniority. At the Cow Palace, I needed connections to get to third row. And even with connections that was as close as I got. But I could get second row in San Jose. That older audience is non-existent. Wrestling has lost its appeal as a spectator activity to that group. When I grew up, the place was loaded with kids. The difference was wrestling was a place where 12-16 year old kids would go weekly and be dropped off. It was not much in the way of families, just all kinds of teenagers running around with no supervision going crazy. They would be dropped off before the show and picked up when it was over. Now there are kids, but they are always accompanied by an adult. That isnt a wrestling difference but a societal difference about people being afraid to leave their kids unaccompanied. Its actually crazy when you think about it, because the Cow Palace on a Saturday night wrestling show was dangerous as hell. I routinely saw people arguing and pulling knives, fights were there all the time. It was insane if you think about it that kids were everywhere with no adults. Now, its safe, but nobody would do that.
However, you see almost no kids at a UFC show, and very few over the age of 40. Its mostly guys, but plenty of women, usually 25-40, some of which is caused by the expensive ticket prices. Boxing draws a very old and very Hispanic audience. The kids are usually family members of the fighters. And again, when it comes to major fights, because of ticket prices, you barely see any kids. Big boxing matches dont draw as many 25-40, but tons over 40, very well off with the trappings of big shots and being rich. Theres some of that at a UFC show, and virtually none at a WWE show.
Wrestling numbers over the last decade have declined greatly, while boxings have improved with younger demos and women, when it comes to casual interest. Nobody even knew UFC then. In similar polls in the early 80s, wrestling would usually come in as the fifth most popular sport and now its not even top 25. So while Vince McMahon did increase revenue (but lets face it, comparing actual revenue of any sport from 30 years ago to today will show even greater increases), it is far less popular. Also, 2002 was the year of a huge decline in interest that really started in 2001. So this isnt a comparison of boom period to today, this is comparing a down period of ten years ago to today.
My theory about the wrestling audience changing is that it has a super loyal audience, the same basic people; Raw has its audience, Smackdown has its audience. Impact has its audience. Every now and then, like if The Rock comes back and its advertised well, or Raw 1,000, or any kind of nostalgia theme, you can pick up the Raw audience. But they seem to have very little interest outside of their group. In the past, we used to joke about casual fans, who watch every now and then, but are aware of many if not all the big names. Pretty much any sports fan could tell you the names of the top wrestlers then who were active, but if you ask today, past John Cena, any names mentioned are going to be stars from another era. Thats the difference between Ric Flair showing up at an NHL game in 1989 (or even 2012) and people mobbing him, and C.M. Punk or the Miz doing so today , and nobody knowing who they are.
There are more people aware of boxing because its covered as a mainstream sport, but people dont watch it weekly on television. They only care about two guys now, and in MMA, you have the mix.
One analyst noted the chart showed that pro wrestling has lost substantial audience in recent years to MMA. But thats not really proven. There has been a decline in pro wrestling, and MMA came out of nowhere in 2006. Boxing really never declined in the past decade even though the perception is that it has. Its actually much stronger among women. WWE has. Once again, weve seen those similarities in PPV numbers. But there is no proof of anything past coincidence other than the WWE PPV numbers being significantly lower when they are on the same weekend as a UFC show that does significant numbers. And we havent really even seen that this year, but its possible with UFCs decline on PPV the past two years, and WWEs increases, that there is some correlation.
Next well look at people who say they are avid fans, and these are the ones who count, because they are the ones who will spend money on a big show.
M12-17 M18-34 M35-54 M55+
Boxing 24.7% 27.9% 17.4% 10.8%
WWE 10.7% 10.8% 10.7% 5.1%
UFC 29.2% 28.6% 14.9% 5.0%
The key is WWE gets its avid audience to watch its television weekly or multiple times per week. Boxing and UFC get them for big events only.
As for women:
W12-17 W18-34 W35-54 W55+
Boxing 13.8% 10.1% 6.7% 2.0%
WWE 5.7% 5.5% 3.3% 1.5%
UFC 12.0% 11.5% 5.7% 2.3%
A final comparison point, only good for boxing and WWE, is popularity among masses and people who call themselves avid fans over the past decade. As noted, in the past, WWE numbers were generally cut in half in recent ten year trends because through 2001, wrestling was still in its 1997-2001 boom period. Now we are figuring one year past boom and into a big decline, with ten years later.
For casual interest:
M12-17 M18-34 M35-54 M55+
Boxing +3.9% -1.3% +6.1% +7%
WWE -31.3% -22.6% +8.9% +24.6%
What is amazing here is that this shows almost the opposite of what one would suspect. There is an older audience that has some interest. Now, they arent attending the shows. We dont know if they are buying PPVs. And they dont necessarily watch or follow it much. But they dont dislike it, although they may dislike this form of it since they dont attend it.
And for women:
W12-17 W18-34 W35-54 W55+
Boxing +2.6% +23% +42.6% +84.7%
WWE -14.9% -11.2% +3.1% +9.9%
Those are numbers for people who have some interest, but dont consider themselves serious fans. Second tier sports live and die on serious fans, but not casual fans who arent going out of their way to attend arenas, and may only buy the biggest shows of the year. For the people who really follow things closely, here is how Boxing and WWE fared in every major demo.
For avid fan interest:
M12-17 M18-34 M35-54 M55+
Boxing -1.6% +17.2% +14.5% +10.2%
WWE -56.3% -40.0% +40.8% +37.8%
This is really crazy. The audience that WWE has ignored and doesnt support them live, claims they are more interested in numbers than before. The audience they gear everything toward is tuning out in droves. The post 35 numbers are probably this. Throughout the 80s and again in the late 90s, wrestling had upswings in popularity. A lot of people who came on board in that era who may have been teenagers or young adults are now in their 40s. If they were asked if they were avid fans, they may say yes, since they were and its just an age group switch, even if they dont watch religiously and may want a different version of the product. But the question is are you an avid fan of pro wrestling, and people who were big time fans at one point may still say yes. If we just use 1985 as a year and figure people who were born between 1970 and 1975 were getting into it big, they would be between 27 and 32 in 2002, and between 37 and 42 in 2012, and look at the groups both ages fit into in the comparisons. So that probably explains it more than suddenly WWE right now is more successful at reaching older viewers. So in actuality, even though arenas dont tell you this, interest in pro wrestling is skewing older because the people who are fans are those who became fans in another era. Its too bad they couldnt go one step further in the poll and ask that audience that likely started in the 80s or late 90s what they think of the current product, and compare that with NFL fans or NBA fans, where their sport is largely unchanged and the WWE entertainment is vastly different. Because as a general rule, most fans want wrestling to be what it was when they first started watching. It should be noted that same patterns dont hold true for women.
And for women:
W12-17 W18-34 W35-54 W55+
Boxing +133.9% +42.3% +81.1% +53.8%
WWE -55.8% -42.1% -35.3% -37.5%
Women, across the board are way down on being avid fans of WWE, and way up on boxing, which again may be more an increase in the Hispanic population being a big part of it. Whats notable is the gap isnt that large among casual fans. WWE has driven away the younger audience, which makes no sense given that they were an audience that grew up on only WWE. There are older audience increases in saying they are fans, but that audience for the most part wont attend matches.