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Monitoring the situation in Iran

WSJ just reported UAE joining fight. First gulf country to join


Nice.

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If the UAE could fly their Rapid Support Forces mercs out of Sudan and drop them into Iran that would be great.

For those who may not know who the RSF are, they are genociding non-Arabs in the civil war. Somehow these guys are not mentioned with all the TENS OF THOUSANDS KILLED BY IRAN messages going out.
 
Propably not insulting everyone left and right, night and day and not informing allies might lead to the conclusion How Could Trump and not America or the US people do this.
Mon Dieu, he insulted us!! We should just let a terrorist regime allied with our abusive neighbor we're in a pseudo proxy war with entrench itself and race for a nuclear weapon!

Trump's behavior is childish and erratic, but there are limits to his convulsions and there's a limit to him. Clock runs out on January 20th 2029. The clock on Russian, Chinese and Iranian imperialist ambitions has no expiration date at this time.

If you're seriously not seeing the opportunity of following through and the risk of not doing this because of insults and SC-restricted tariffs, you're an even bigger child than him.

Plus i think most Europeans including me think this is a pretty awesome distraction from the Epstein files.
Trump's mentions in the Epstein Files must be horrific.

This keeps on being said ad infinitum, so I don't want to hear anything about "off topic".

Ffs, no. The majority of what you think you know about it is a public game of chinese whispers between profit-seeking lawyers and internet cranks.

It's ridiculous this has to be said anyway. The world doesn't revolve around Epstein and this has nothing to do with it, and you have no proof otherwise. Geopolitical paradigms are at stake here, not your own brand of critical theory.
 
Mon Dieu, he insulted us!! We should just let a terrorist regime allied with our abusive neighbor we're in a pseudo proxy war with entrench itself and race for a nuclear weapon!

Trump's behavior is childish and erratic, but there are limits to his convulsions and there's a limit to him. Clock runs out on January 20th 2029. The clock on Russian, Chinese and Iranian imperialist ambitions has no expiration date at this time.

If you're seriously not seeing the opportunity of following through and the risk of not doing this because of insults and SC-restricted tariffs, you're an even bigger child than him.




This keeps on being said ad infinitum, so I don't want to hear anything about "off topic".

Ffs, no. The majority of what you think you know about it is a public game of chinese whispers between profit-seeking lawyers and internet cranks.

It's ridiculous this has to be said anyway. The world doesn't revolve around Epstein and this has nothing to do with it, and you have no proof otherwise. Geopolitical paradigms are at stake here, not your own brand of critical theory.

The reasons could be many, but I do find it funny that the US government and even head of security, FBI etc were all clearly terrified of the epstein files. These wars that seem to pop up when something clearly needs "covering up" makes for some great conspiracy theories.

It is funny how this war seemed to be the only thing that stopped people talking about the files, after clear pleads from Trump and his entire government to stop talking about it and move on. It adds a little spice to the whole terrible situation.

I think the convo does need to come back up about the files though. They did not do enough and clearly are covering something. If it has nothing to do with the files they should get them out there ASAP once this is sorted. I am sure they will do what they promised they would do.
 
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The reasons could be many, but I do find it funny that the US government and even head of security, FBI etc were all clearly terrified of the epstein files. These wars that seem to pop up when something clearly needs "covering up" makes for some great conspiracy theories.

Did you read the files? For example Bill Gates did nothing illegal, but he's in the "files" as someone Epstein tried to blackmail. And yet his reputation was destroyed from extramarital affair and nothing illegal.

It is funny how this war seemed to be the only thing that stopped people talking about the files, after clear pleads from Trump and his entire government to stop talking about it and move on. It adds a little spice to the whole terrible situation.

I think the convo does need to come back up about the files though. They did not do enough and clearly are covering something. If it has nothing to do with the files they should get them out there ASAP once this is sorted. I am sure they will do what they promised they would do.

Gotta read the files first before you can talk about it and I somehow doubt the vast majority bothered to read anything. But you're already trying to prove a negative.
 
Did you read the files? For example Bill Gates did nothing illegal, but he's in the "files" as someone Epstein tried to blackmail. And yet his reputation was destroyed from extramarital affair and nothing illegal.



Gotta read the files first before you can talk about it and I somehow doubt the vast majority bothered to read anything. But you're already trying to prove a negative.

I am not trying to prove anything, I am saying it is interesting and I think many people feel that way. If there is nothing negative, they can just release it all like they said they would and stop being so defensive.

I will make a bet that stuff leaks or comes out after Trump is long gone from office.
 
The grand irony of Trump's enormous fuck-up here, is that if the US pulls out of Iran, Iran will have proven that they have the power to defy the so-called "greatest military on Earth", and hold global supply chains to hostage.
They're going to toll the fuck out of the Strait, because they know they can, cause who the fuck is gonna stop them, if even the mighty US can't.

Masterclass in how not to handle foreign policy, and project power on a global stage.
If Iran can hold the US by the balls over energy/oil prices with a few cheaply made drones vs multi-billion dollar weapons systems, then why the fuck can't China? Or any other adversarial nation state?
TACO principle strikes again.
 
The grand irony of Trump's enormous fuck-up here, is that if the US pulls out of Iran, Iran will have proven that they have the power to defy the so-called "greatest military on Earth", and hold global supply chains to hostage.
They're going to toll the fuck out of the Strait, because they know they can, cause who the fuck is gonna stop them, if even the mighty US can't.

Masterclass in how not to handle foreign policy, and project power on a global stage.
If Iran can hold the US by the balls over energy/oil prices with a few cheaply made drones vs multi-billion dollar weapons systems, then why the fuck can't China? Or any other adversarial nation state?
TACO principle strikes again.
We'll see where this goes, as we've got a ways to go yet, to put it mildly, but there's no denying this whole thing has been an absolutely incredible fuckup.

At this point, yes, they've bombed the shit out of a lot of military hardware and targets and killed some people who have since been replaced, but they've also made Iran more extreme, fucked up the world's oil supply, and further eroded relationships with every other country. It's something a competent team could absolutely have foreseen, and planned differently and developed a strategy around.

It feels like a plan and strategy made by incompetent people surrounded by yes men. Which, most likely, it was.
 
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We'll see where this goes, as we've got a ways to go yet, to put it mildly, but there's no denying this whole thing has been an absolutely incredible fuckup.

At this point, yes, they've bombed the shit out of a lot of military hardware and targets and killed some people who have since been replaced, but they've also made Iran more extreme, fucked up the world's oil supply, and further eroded relationships with every other country. It's something a competent team could absolutely have foreseen, and planned differently and developed a strategy around.

It feels like a plan and strategy made by incompetent people surrounded by yes men. Which, most likely, it was.
There was no plan or strategy.

Either Trump follows through and endures the political and economic pain for his mistakes to ensure the US's global position doesn't diminish any further than it already has. Or if he chooses to pull out, he will basically be telling the rest of the world, that they can contravene US foreign policy goals with impunity if they squeeze them on economic factors.

That's not even taking the fact that Iran is accepting toll payments in Yuan, and not dollars, so as not to maintain dollar cashflows globally to help finance the US's debt. Its a step change in global hegemonic power. And all so that ol' Trumpy boy could distract us from his disastrous polling and the Epstein Files.

Frankly, the surgical precision with which Trump has undermined the US' global position, is so incredible that if it wasn't for the fact that he's a demented, stupid, evil old man, I'd almost believe it was intentional.
 
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We'll see where this goes, as we've got a ways to go yet, to put it mildly, but there's no denying this whole thing has been an absolutely incredible fuckup.

At this point, yes, they've bombed the shit out of a lot of military hardware and targets and killed some people who have since been replaced, but they've also made Iran more extreme, fucked up the world's oil supply, and further eroded relationships with every other country. It's something a competent team could absolutely have foreseen, and planned differently and developed a strategy around.

It feels like a plan and strategy made by incompetent people surrounded by yes men. Which, most likely, it was.

This could be one of the worst self owns of all time, and we will all suffer for his fuck up.
 
There are already oil ships heading for China that have paid Iran "toll money" to get through.
It would not surprise me that more countries start doing the same, as their oil and gas reserves run dry.
 
There are already oil ships heading for China that have paid Iran "toll money" to get through.
It would not surprise me that more countries start doing the same, as their oil and gas reserves run dry.
If all of this is supposed to be a message to China that the US can cut off their fuel supply then what's the point if China is fine and everyone else, apart from US and Russia, are totally fucked?
 
the fact that these "Tolls" are being paid in Chinese Yuan is absolutely wild. Even America is helping shift the worldwide "power" to China due to this. That can not have been planned.
 
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but they've also made Iran more extreme
So they're going to start posting AI slop at triple the intensity.

That's not even taking the fact that Iran is accepting toll payments in Yuan, and not dollars, so as not to maintain dollar cashflows globally to help finance the US's debt. Its a step change in global hegemonic power.
Yes, clearly, letting a few ships (I don't think there are even dozen of them) through for a small fee in yuan spells the inevitable collapse of the dollar.

🤦‍♂️
 
I don't buy the news about the US pulling out of Nato (I think it's another hollow threat).

The main reason is that they won't risk Nato later deciding to stop buying American arms.
 
Yes, clearly, letting a few ships (I don't think there are even dozen of them) through for a small fee in yuan spells the inevitable collapse of the dollar.

🤦‍♂️
I didn't say that.

But it does represent a shift in the balance of power.
The US can run its massive deficit and debt, because the dollar underpins basically all global transactions as the global reserve currency. As soon as countries start shifting away from using the dollar as a reserve currency, the ability to service that massive debt starts to go away.

Iran by itself isn't going to do much. But it sends a signal to other nations who are on rocky terms with, or are actively adversarial to the United States, that its okay to start trading in Yuan, instead of dollars.
 
The reasons could be many, but I do find it funny that the US government and even head of security, FBI etc were all clearly terrified of the epstein files.
Terrified according to what?

These wars that seem to pop up when something clearly needs "covering up" makes for some great conspiracy theories.
What wars? Wtf are you talking about?

It is funny how this war seemed to be the only thing that stopped people talking about the files, after clear pleads from Trump and his entire government to stop talking about it and move on. It adds a little spice to the whole terrible situation.
This is the Tucker method of rhetoric. You're just asking questions right? It's "funny how people have stopped talking about the files"? That is funny, because people have not. You're doing it now. Congressman and media figures across podcastistan and establishment institutions have taken to calling this the "Epstein War" or a coverup for "the Epstein Class".

I think the convo does need to come back up about the files though.
There's no "conversation" about the files as evidenced by the idiocy encountered when you actually get into the details and not the slop. It's mass hysteria. They've dumped millions of documents and people have tried and failed to make mountains out of anthills. People have been wrongly fired, a Prince has been stripped of his title. Now that they realise they don't have the red meat they seem to want bizarrely, they claim that there's still a coverup. Do you even realise why all those redactions are in place? Who asked for them?

I am not trying to prove anything, I am saying it is interesting and I think many people feel that way. If there is nothing negative, they can just release it all like they said they would and stop being so defensive.
Again, Tucker is that you??
"People feel that way" because they want to. They want to believe the world is governed by satanic sexual predators of the worst degree.

They don't actually read the files they claim to want, and they never will. The reason why the likes of Pam Bondi and Kash Patel are being "evasive" is not because they're afraid of anything coming out that would incriminate Emperor Trump.

The chud fragment of the admin is embarrassed of getting duped like everyone else by the Epstein Grift, and afraid of the backlash of the segment of their base that will not hear that they've been taken in by a myth. Bondi's memo in January was damage control. The truth is that there was no trafficking ring, there are no thousand victims "harmed", and the majority of accusers were above the age of consent of any US state (usually in their 20s) when they claimed to have ever even met Epstein, particularly after his guilty plea in 2008. Many of them are documented to have changed their story or only came out of the woodwork when literally half a billion dollars in civil suit monies became available for the taking with zero cross examination tax free.

Let's see if you engage with that in "conversation".
 
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I don't buy the news about the US pulling out of Nato (I think it's another hollow threat).

The main reason is that they won't risk Nato later deciding to stop buying American arms.
Arms sales are a tiny percentage of the economy and the MIC's lobby power is a fraction of Big Tech, Pharma or even Entertainment.


Lockheed Martin is the top defense company at number 76. The famous quote of Eisenhower on the Military Industrial Complex was 75 years ago in a completely different world.
 
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I didn't say that.

But it does represent a shift in the balance of power.
The US can run its massive deficit and debt, because the dollar underpins basically all global transactions as the global reserve currency. As soon as countries start shifting away from using the dollar as a reserve currency, the ability to service that massive debt starts to go away.

Iran by itself isn't going to do much. But it sends a signal to other nations who are on rocky terms with, or are actively adversarial to the United States, that its okay to start trading in Yuan, instead of dollars.
Global trade has been moving away from the dollar for a while now. Any shift there isn't likely to happen overnight. As for who is "winning" globally China is already ahead of the US using using GDP (PPP) which is why in American media you will only ever hear about nominal GDP even though all that basically means is that it is more expensive to live in the USA than China. So if there is competition between USA and China everyone will be really impressed by how expensive the American solutions are but China has more than a good chance of winning on scale and price performance. US nominal GPD is propped up by the safe haven effect of being a huge stable trade currency and the markets being able to soak investment. And also propped up by the natural resources. But there are huge forces pulling down the PPP of the US like the healthcare system where the US could reform, if they found the will to tackle all the inefficiencies there, but cutting edge health care for an aging population (who are too fat and sedentary) is a problem no matter what.
 
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Terrified according to what?


What wars? Wtf are you talking about?


This is the Tucker method of rhetoric. You're just asking questions right? It's "funny how people have stopped talking about the files"? That is funny, because people have not. You're doing it now. Congressman and media figures across podcastistan and establishment institutions have taken to calling this the "Epstein War" or a coverup for "the Epstein Class".


There's no "conversation" about the files as evidenced by the idiocy encountered when you actually get into the details and not the slop. It's mass hysteria. They've dumped millions of documents and people have tried and failed to make mountains out of anthills. People have been wrongly fired, a Prince has been stripped of his title. Now that they realise they don't have the red meat they seem to want bizarrely, they claim that there's still a coverup. Do you even realise why all those redactions are in place? Who asked for them?


Again, Tucker is that you??
"People feel that way" because they want to. They want to believe the world is governed by satanic sexual predators of the worst degree.

They don't actually read the files they claim to want, and they never will. The reason why the likes of Pam Bondi and Kash Patel are being "evasive" is not because they're afraid of anything coming out that would incriminate Emperor Trump.

The chud fragment of the admin is embarrassed of getting duped like everyone else by the Epstein Grift, and afraid of the backlash of the segment of their base that will not hear that they've been taken in by a myth. Bondi's memo in January was damage control. The truth is that there was no trafficking ring, there are no thousand victims "harmed", and the majority of accusers were above the age of consent of any US state (usually in their 20s) when they claimed to have ever even met Epstein, particularly after his guilty plea in 2008. Many of them are documented to have changed their story or only came out of the woodwork when literally half a billion dollars in civil suit monies became available for the taking with zero cross examination tax free.

Let's see if you engage with that in "conversation".
I've been on this planet for a few decades now and I know when someone is under pressure and absolutely doing everything they can to bullshit their way out of a situation and that's every clip I've seen on Pam Bondi responding to Congress.

Do I think there is stuff in the Epstein files? I think there is potentially something major but I do think there is something.

I'm not even in America but I have seen that they are not letting up on pressurising Bondi when I just googled it so all should be well.

I also saw something about regrets for not adding terms to be able to go after members of trump's administration for dodging stuff around the files. That says a lot. They never thought they would have to have such laws to be able to prosecute....but here we are.
 
I've been on this planet for a few decades now and I know when someone is under pressure and absolutely doing everything they can to bullshit their way out of a situation and that's every clip I've seen on Pam Bondi responding to Congress.

Do I think there is stuff in the Epstein files? I think there is potentially something major but I do think there is something.

I'm not even in America but I have seen that they are not letting up on pressurising Bondi when I just googled it so all should be well.

I also saw something about regrets for not adding terms to be able to go after members of trump's administration for dodging stuff around the files. That says a lot. They never thought they would have to have such laws to be able to prosecute....but here we are.
You should re-read my post, because I freely acknowledge that both Bondi and Patel are being evasive.

She's been evasive because she's caught between a rock and a hard place. She's put her foot in her mouth multiple times with this Epstein shit, and then she released that idiot memo back in July. In that memo, she claimed over 1000 victims were "harmed" by Epstein, while also saying that he only trafficked to himself and Maxwell.

"Harmed" is not rigorous or precise or standard legal jargon. We now know the 1000+ "victims" include accusers who have almost entirely never been adjudicated as victims, and their family members. Immediate family, fourth cousins, great grandparents, who knows?
She also made a litany of weasel worded claims to pump up the material that was actually found in the criminal investigation against Epstein.

We now know what the FBI actually found - this is part of the Epstein Files dump:



HAmR88nX0AEiriC


Getting into the weeds in all of this would mean admitting that she was dead wrong about the case as well as the podcast-educated wing of the Trump 2024 campaign and current admin, and weathering backlash from left right and center. Similar to the backlash people receive for airing out these details on the internet. Anger for dispelling the myth that she herself has spread.
 
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Prime time address for the prime time ratings.



Donald Trump plans to give a primetime address on the war in Iran on Wednesday evening, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced.

"Tomorrow night at 9PM ET, President Trump will give an Address to the Nation to provide an important update on Iran," Leavitt wrote on X.

Earlier, Trump told reporters that the war could end in "two or three weeks."

"We will be leaving very soon," Trump said.

Iran has put a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump said that "if France or some other country wants to get oil or gas, they'll go up through the strait … and they'll be able to fend for themselves. I think it'll be very safe, actually. But we have nothing to do with that."

A number of polls show a majority of the American public are opposed to U.S. action in Iran. The U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes a month ago, but Trump authorized the military action without congressional authorization.
 
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Arms sales are a tiny percentage of the economy and the MIC's lobby power is a fraction of Big Tech, Pharma or even Entertainment.


Lockheed Martin is the top defense company at number 76. The famous quote of Eisenhower on the Military Industrial Complex was 75 years ago in a completely different world.
Damn MSFT dropped hard. And they were above 4T at one point.
 
IF they are doing any address tonight it is either great news, or the worst news of a Ground invasion.
 
The USA cannot defeat Iran by bombing alone so they are making statements that "They want a deal!" "They want a ceasefire!"- but Iran are constantly stating this is bullshit and won't reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

So it's a stalemate now.

Either ground troops go in and force the Strait open or leave the region with their tails between their legs?
 
"'You know you never defeated us on the battlefield,' said the American colonel. The North Vietnamese colonel pondered this remark a moment. 'That may be so,' he replied, 'but it is also irrelevant.'"

History repeats itself.
 
The grand irony of Trump's enormous fuck-up here, is that if the US pulls out of Iran, Iran will have proven that they have the power to defy the so-called "greatest military on Earth", and hold global supply chains to hostage.
They're going to toll the fuck out of the Strait, because they know they can, cause who the fuck is gonna stop them, if even the mighty US can't.

Masterclass in how not to handle foreign policy, and project power on a global stage.
If Iran can hold the US by the balls over energy/oil prices with a few cheaply made drones vs multi-billion dollar weapons systems, then why the fuck can't China? Or any other adversarial nation state?
TACO principle strikes again.

Even his most zealous acolytes arent defending this at this point. Its been an unmitigated disaster that has ensured the middle east breeds more america hating nutjobs out of their youth for the next couple decades.
 
Trump's out is pretty clear at this point, he's going to claim victory and blame the situation with the Strait on Europe and NATO. "We won, and Europe lost. It's their problem."
 
Even his most zealous acolytes arent defending this at this point. Its been an unmitigated disaster that has ensured the middle east breeds more america hating nutjobs out of their youth for the next couple decades.
Just need to look at this thread.
Defense against of the dark arts.
 
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or the worst news of a Ground invasion.
There is no need for invasion.

Either ground troops go in and force the Strait open or leave the region with their tails between their legs?
They will take control of the Strait. The main question right now is at what cost. If they manage to get away with minimal losses, it can be considered a victory. If the attempt to seize control ends in disaster, it will be seen as a defeat, despite Iran's demilitarization.
 
Politically, the straights situation is a way to undermine how badly beaten Iran was in the conflict. It's a way to save face.

In any situation where you're defending an ambush point, it's super easy, especially in these times with drones. They're simply avoiding military engagement and targeting civilian ships, as they always have. They always kill and terrorize civilians.

This idea that they're being clever and 'defeating the world's strongest military' is a joke. They were wiped out and they're simply doing the only thing they can, trying to cause chaos to attacking civilians and freighters.

There's no special scalpel here, it's just their only option. Terrorism.

The problem with their strategy is now all the US military weapons are turning towards the straights. So, they're just committing suicide just to make gas higher for a few weeks. Lol

Not that I agree with the war either. I'm against it.
 
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It's funny seeing the posts acting like Iran has somehow won despite taking 20,000 or so direct strikes on targets and a whole level of its leadership wiped out, and the current leadership is only there because USA asked them to be on a no-kill list.
 
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