winjer
Gold Member
No child LIKES Strict Daddy, but every child NEEDS Strict Daddy
The reality is that people don't like narcissistic lunatics.
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Monitoring the situation in Iran
- Thread starter EviLore
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The reality is that people don't like narcissistic lunatics.
StueyDuck
Member
You just described almost every political leader.
winjer
Gold Member
Trump takes it to extreme levels.
buttnuggett
Gold Member
No child LIKES Strict Daddy, but every child NEEDS Strict Daddy
Europe was great for us when they gave us military and diplomatic support. Our use of their bases and sanctions on our request were good for the dollar hegemony. If they start to rethink their position, then it's time to start rethinking ours. While our military support was one-sided, their other support made it whole. Or at least close enough.
StueyDuck
Member
Id say he just hides it worse. They are all extreme and corrupt fuckers
buttnuggett
Gold Member
Irgc sympathizers needa explain why taco is so funny? Did they want trump to blow up everything, I thought you werent for that
I'm very wary of the whole thing, and it didn't to be a "destruction of civilation" tweet. Ya, we've hit power plants before, but generally they're just disabled and can be repaired within a few days. It's mainly transmission lines and not the damn plant itself.
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Meicyn
Member
Oh, neat! You've changed the modifier to your statement. Originally it was:
...but now it's:
How convenient! By the way, still waiting for you to provide sources/references. You'll employ weasel words, tell me that I "have all the information", make other comments... but you won't provide a single reference for your "Ukrainian bias" claim or anything else supporting your position. Show me. Or don't, that's fine too. But in lieu of evidence or sources, I believe US and EU officials over you. It's not personal, they just have credentials and you don't.
...but now it's:
How convenient! By the way, still waiting for you to provide sources/references. You'll employ weasel words, tell me that I "have all the information", make other comments... but you won't provide a single reference for your "Ukrainian bias" claim or anything else supporting your position. Show me. Or don't, that's fine too. But in lieu of evidence or sources, I believe US and EU officials over you. It's not personal, they just have credentials and you don't.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Unfortunately it's gonna take probably the whole 4, or more, years of the next admin to mend relationships.
winjer
Gold Member
It's the opposite, Europe is the one that had to rethink it's position, when the current administration betrayed Europe.
The part that a few people seem to forget, is that until very recently, Europe tagged long the USA in several wars. Europe voted along side the USA in most questions.
The USA and Europe were very close partners, with high levels of trust and sharing economic, political and military influence.
There was a time, not too long ago, when a POTUS could call on dozens of allies for assistance in whatever was needed.
Trump is the first POTUS to have lost that capability and he lost it all because of himself.
lachesis
Member
Oh yes, I forgot that Iranians would work much faster than us - especially ones in NYC 495 repair guys or GWB repair guys. They've been fixing it for years now!!!
Seriously though, still, I think 2 weeks is a big hurdle for the railways, airport and to certain extent, roads. I don't think those bombs created 3 inch potholes you see around.
On top of that, that's lot of oil refinery, steel manufacturing capapbilities are gone too. So 2 weeks, I think best IRGC can do is restructure and re-establish their line of command. With so many of their heads are gone like daily basis - I wouldn't be surprised Private Mohamed is named next commander.
They've been sending such mixed signal - and I do believe because there's some serious communication issues with IRGC hiding in the ground and politicians not getting along well.
I highly doubt this whole cease fire deal, IRGC and Iran's political puppet heads were 100% in sync other than "We'll let you know how it went, and let you know when it's safe to come out of your holes, so stand by."
Yes it will be a point of leverage, but what I'm saying is they lost half the leverage. 2000 ships were essentially hostage. Now they are freed.
Think of this way. A bank robber blockaded a bank with a dozen people as hostage. He lets go of all the hostages, guns pointed towards the entrance yelling "nobody can come in and get money out of it".
Sure, you can't use the ATM in there or deposit money (for now) - but the leverage's importance has been severely compromised.
And Hormuz strait isn't only place you get the oil. Yes 20% of worlds oil export come out of there - but oil isn't limited to middle east. There are other routes, countries (including US and Canada) who are big oil producers.
If you are a ship's insurance holder, I highly doubt they'll send out to Hormuz unless things are safe. Till then, they will have to find out other places, routes to get oil.
It will bring oil price rise somewhat - but not as significant as current blockade situation.
In my opinion, of course.
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buttnuggett
Gold Member
Look at NATO doctrine. If ever a USSR or Russian invasion, the plan was to hold the line until American forces got there from across the pond. That's one-sided. Of course, Europe made it up on other ends.
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
Not sure we have anyone on the horizon that can do that
Much like our previous election I am not confident in any of the early front runners for the next election
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Vance is too spine-less and I don't even know who the D's have as a forerunner? Newsom? Fuck him, lol. AOC? She might be ok for local stuff but she doesn't have the chops for big international diplomacy from all hear hearing appearances.
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
Our future doesn't look promising
buttnuggett
Gold Member
Vance is an enigma, Rubio is a possibility. Shapiro would be good for the democrats, but he's a jew, so that disqualifies him from the Hamas bros in your party.
calico
Member
Good to see at least one rational post.
poppabk
Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
Not an IGRC sympathizer, but the whole Taco thing seems to be this weird thing where Trump puts pressure on himself or his people rather than on the people he is making deals with.Irgc sympathizers needa explain why taco is so funny? Did they want trump to blow up everything, I thought you werent for that
'I've made a crazy proclamation - you guys better figure out something before the deadline to get me out of it'
I think it's possible that we were more scared that Trump would actually go through with it than the Iranians were.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Lionel Richie
Member
Irgc sympathizers needa explain why taco is so funny? Did they want trump to blow up everything, I thought you werent for that
Can't speak for sympathizers, but I can speak for everyone who isn't a retard that we didn't want him threatening to nuke another country for fucking no other reason than to save face.
IlGialloMondadori
Member
Straight closed again goddamn what a shitshow fuckup this whole thing has been.
buttnuggett
Gold Member
I don't really think it was a nuke threat, just a threat to start blowing up power plants and shit. Def a check that he couldn't cash without major repercussions.
winjer
Gold Member
NATO is a defensive alliance. It only operates if one of it's members is attacked.
And there has only been one country to have ever declared article 5, which was the USA, and Europe responded accordingly.
Critical Hit
Member
The meaning is the same - a small number of drones implies technology transfer, not that the IRGC would use them for strikes. I highly doubt this will happen.
All this information started coming out of Ukraine 3–4 weeks ago
International News | Latest World News, Videos & Photos
Get the latest international news and world events from Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and more. See world news photos and videos at ABCNews.com
abcnews.com
How Saudi Arabia Tamed Russia - The American Prospect
The political economy behind recent OPEC oil production cuts
prospect.org
Zelensky fails to secure Tomahawk missiles at talks with Trump
Following the meeting, Trump calls for Kyiv and Moscow to "stop where they are" and end the war.
www.bbc.com
An attack on bridges and power plants would most likely have taken place. The rest of what he said is a massive exaggeration, as usual.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Considering that countries continue to bomb each other, I don't why people are complaining - it is only USA that has withdrawn. Others seems to continue the joyride.
It is too early to believe anything - you have to wait at least 2 days.
That's why it was such a lame thing to withdraw. Granted the planes are still arriving to the region.
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buttnuggett
Gold Member
Yes, and if a defensive alliance is one-sided then, other things have to be done. The entire defensive nature was one way. If we're giving in some things, you better give another.
winjer
Gold Member
Yes, Europe helped the USA when they were attacked and called on article 5.
The USA never had to help Europe, because no European country called on Article 5.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
How is it one sided? NATO has answered US's call when they asked for it by invoking article 5.
Unless you mean one sided in that Europe has never had to ask for US's help?
For the events happening right now, no NATO nation under threat of direct attack called for the article.
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OLED_Gamer
Member
Take it for face value- it was a threat to kill a lot of innocent people at best, and genocide at worst. That has no place in our world, and especially from the WH.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
buttnuggett
Gold Member
Would they be OK with us sending 50k troops and mostly chilling at bases? They wouldn't. NATO doctrine is literally us taking the brunt of that.
Madflavor
Member
It might take quite a long time, and that's if everything goes well. Even if another Obama got elected in 2028, the US has shown itself to be wildly unpredictable and unhinged in the political spectrum, and that we voted in a profoundly unqualified, and irrational buffoon not once, but twice. So any leader could ask the next POTUS "What guarantee can you make us that your people won't vote in Trump 2.0?"
ChuckeRearmed
Member
The whole democrat bench are Biden/Harris wannabees intelligence wise. At this point it is pretty much expected that the democrat presidency in its current form is going to be similar to Carter or Biden simply due to main players being not in the front but behind the scenes (like it was with Biden). With republicans they have stronger front facing candidates.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
The bases are kept and operated by mutual agreements, it helps US keep a foothold in the region, is a deterrent to Russia and basically does the most positive for US PR by showing the world that we're present in so many countries.
There is no obligation for NATO nations to send their troops or allow their space for something outside of their purview. It's defensive, not offensive.
But keep in mind, multiple NATO nations were very happy and eager to help the US for the Iraq war, so that trend of countries like the UK not being willing to help the US is something we can attribute to the messaging from the current admin.
Take the Denmark/Greenland fiasco for example. If I have an uncle who comes to my doorstep, threatens me and tells me he'll take over my attic by force and then asks my help to move his couch. Do you think I'll be eager to help him? fuck no.
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j0hnnix
Member
Welcome back to square one.
Iran says it is halting oil tanker traffic through Strait of Hormuz after Israel strikes Lebanon
Iran has halted the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz over Israel’s strikes in Lebanon, the Fars news agency reports. Fars reports that two oil tankers were allowed to pass through the strait this morning after the ceasefire between Iran and the US took effect.
ground.news
Tams
Member
It was a threat to destroy infrastructure.
Yes, that can lead to indirect civilian deaths, but that infrastructure also helps prop up the regime.
The idea that conflict is neat and orderly isn't and has never been true. If anything, this is the era of the most 'civilised' conflict humanity has ever seen.
winjer
Gold Member
And mind you, The Trump administration knows that NATO is a defensive alliance. That is why they didn't call on article 4, to have a meeting. Much less call on article 5.
This posturing is just for the MAGA crowd, because they know these people will believe anything Trump says. Even if it's complete nonsense.
buttnuggett
Gold Member
I'm not even bitching about NATO not sending ships to this arena. Their ships are old. OTOH, if one party is doing the lion's share of the defensive work, it would make sense to let them use your bases, and stay within range of political goals. Yes, Trump is a blowhard idiot, I won't deny that, but refusing base access for a one-sided affair is certainly a choice.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
The whole european participation has always been about participation trophies really since the end of the WW2.
OLED_Gamer
Member
Where was infrastructure in that post?
Hari Seldon
Member
Also the complete denial of airspace. I was pro-NATO before this but now I'm so pissed that I would support Trump pulling us out of NATO. If he doesn't want to expend the political capital on getting this through congress, at least announcing that our NATO support only extends to the nuclear triad.
buttnuggett
Gold Member
He can't. There was a resolution that was passed that takes approval of the legislative branch. Nor would I want him to. It would take more severe deterioration of things to get to this point. Their complaints are filed, so are ours.
calico
Member
Putting to bed the myth of most of the European nations being worthwhile allies is one of the biggest wins in an operation full of wins. The post-9/11 wars pretty much showed it anyway, but now it is beyond doubt. Far better to find out now in an engagement where it doesn't really matter than to find out in one where it does.
His instincts on Greenland were correct, and should be revisited once Iran is put to bed.
His instincts on Greenland were correct, and should be revisited once Iran is put to bed.
buttnuggett
Gold Member
No. They were completely batshit. While his argument , that the treaty was broken by Denmark by the way Greenlanders, invading them is way bad form.
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adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Hundreds of NATO soldiers died in the Afghanistan war. Very blasé to call it just 'participation'.
I'm not even counting the Iraq war casualties here since that was not a NATO charter.
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Critical Hit
Member
The same applies in Russia. Two weeks is long enough.
The problem is that it's not just oil that flows through the strait.
And 20% doesn't seem like a scary figure until you're part of that 20% and 100% dependent on it. And once again, you're overlooking the infrastructure - the other routes (infrastructure and logistics) are designed for the current routes, so it won't be possible to reallocate/rebuild them quickly. Just look at the Europeans, who haven't been able to completely phase out Russian gas in 5 years and won't be able to do so until 2027 (and it's not certain they'll succeed).
Hari Seldon
Member
He functionally can because he controls where the US military gets deployed and in what numbers. NATO support can mean nuclear triad + intelligence and logistics, not US troops.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
People die in miltiary conflicts. What else is new? Plus, again the participation of NATO in Afghanistan war was NATO inititive and not the american one. Tony Blair's with his "humanitarian intervention". I think in Yugoslavia war - for example - Europe did not even want to participate (as they had trouble reaching the agreement) to cleanup their own backyards but I don't remember details.Hundreds of NATO soldiers died in the Afghanistan war. Very blasé to call it just 'participation'.
I'm not even counting the Iraq war casualties here since that was not a NATO charter.
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adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
New is the incredibly poor form to try and liken it to a 'participation trophy'.
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