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Monitoring the situation in Iran

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And let's not forget that JC Vance went to Hungary to support the election campaign of Viktor Orbán, the biggest piece of shit in the whole of the EU.

The funniest part of the whole thing is that Vance says EU is interfering in Hungary's elections, while being on stage at Orban's rallies and calling Trump on phone.

No sense of irony or shame in that couch-lover :messenger_grinning_sweat:
 
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The funniest part of the whole thing is that Vance says EU is interfering in Hungary's elections, while being on stage at Orban's rallies and calling Trump on phone.

No sense of irony or shame in that couch-lover :messenger_grinning_sweat:
And the funny part is that Orcban lost 3% in the polls after the Vance show. 🤣

If Orcban loses on Sunday I have a feeling he not go willingly. Claim election fraud and try to start some shit.
 
PAC-3 is anti-ballistic. Ballistic missiles are the rarest (excluding nukes). The main focus right now should be on protection against drones and usvs.


Are you Pakistani or something?

PAC-3 have ability to shoot down ballistic missiles they are latest version of interceptors. PAC2 are still in use and don't have capability of taking down balistic missiles. You need PAC-3s to counter Iran. The issue is that Iran has capability to produce ballistic missiles en masse. Secondly in order to take down SINGLE ballistic missile you need to shot TWO PAC-3 missiles at minimum. In current Iran-US conflict US was shooting upwards of 8 PAC3 missiless to take down single ballistic missile from Iran and even that does not guarantee you taking down ballistic missile. Just to iterate again. Current production rate is around 600 pac3s per year. And that's with exports which are all halted currently. By 2030 production rate will be at around 2000.

There isn't right now any good option to counter cheap drones. All projectile based systems have too short range and missiles are to expensive to shot cheap drones and you run out of them. Moreover those drones flight pattern is low to the ground so it's not like you can even detect them well at range.
Ukraine does it by creating several layers of defense where drones are tracked and each lines tries to take them down with short range weapons. But that's in theatre of war over land stretching literally nearly a 1000km. You don't have that in fight with Iran and US nave is too small to create such layered defense on the sea.
Sorry, but I find it highly implausible that the Iranians will find it easier to rebuild all the shit that got destroyed than the US to manufacture more ordnance to destroy said shit.

And no. Building underground is slow and highly resource intensive, way more so than surface construction and still creates natural choke-points because without surface access what use is an underground base ?

Stop talking like the IRGC are supermen! Its laughable.

Iran right now operates whole missile CITIES underground. US own reports say that bombed launch shafts from which they fire ballistic missiles are firing them again withing days of being bombed. Moreover they were preparing for US attack for DECADES. From assessments before this war even started Iran main hubs of command are located below ground so much that even nuclear strikes won't take them out, we know that because they hired russian engineers decades ago who build same stuff for russian command structure under moscow metro. There are only few nations in the world that have such bunkers, US, france, russia, uk, maybe India, probably now pakistan and for sure China. Iran is also one of them.

IRGC aren't supermen. They are actually far from that.

But they invested heavily into defense of Iran and they were doing that over decades. Moreover they are 100mil nation with gold goose in form of oil with theocratic government that was predicting that US WILL attack them in future. And guess what they did, so they are now directly reaping benefits of preparing for a war with US they prepared for decades.

It's not that Iran is smart. It's US heads that are stupid.

--------

It's like case of Switzerland. They didn't get attacked because they said they are neutral. They didn't get attacked for 100s of years because they invested HEAVILY into defense of their nation for as long as they are nation. Whole chains of bunkers, latest gear, incredible topography for defense, whole huge stockpiles, underground logistic networks ensuring that whoever attacks Switzerland will have to go through absolute hell to conquer it. So no one fucking bothered because it doesn't make fucking sense to attack it. It's stupid^2 to attack it.

Now imagine instead of small Switzerland you have 100milion people Iran, instead of shit topography for invasion you have absolute hell topography for invasion where you can hide anything you want in mountains, valleys of death where any invasion force would be surrounded on all sides for 100s of kms to reach interior absolutely shelled the fuck out by artillery hidden in mountains surrounding you. In a country size of 1/4 of US.

As for underground construction. Yes it is expensive but you assume civilian costs under no conflict. During conflict prices are slashed down considerably as people often work for just food and maybe something extra. And again we are talking here about country that did it for DECADES.

They are simply benefiting from being massive country that practiced spending on defense for decades.

Just to further iterate. US and arab states are fighting war in Yemen and Lebanon for YEARS. Hesbollah has been using same tactic as Iran aka underground and lobbing drones/missiles and despite YEARS of bombing campaigns Hesbollah is still there.

And that's US+Israel+multiple arab nations bombing the living fuck out of Hesbollah in those regions and they are still fine operating there.
And Hesbollah compared to Iran have like no money, no-know how, simple tools and whatever they can get from Iran from time to time.

that's why every expert was saying attacking Iran was stupid. Because it is Stupid.


"NATO. Is. A. Defensive. Alliance."

This must be the new talking point for people who don't really know what they're talking about to mindlessly parrot I guess. NATO can act whenever it chooses to act, as it has demonstrated repeatedly previously. No NATO member needs to be attacked for it to take action.

NATO members can act on their own. They can even form coalition and attack someone. But they aren't then using NATO then. Moreover if say US get attacked right now on American soil by Iran, say they will send ballistic missiles and attack main cities. US has no right to use Article5 according to NATO rules because when they attacked Iran they were working outside of NATO.
 
But they invested heavily into defense of Iran and they were doing that over decades.
Iran has literally invested zero in defense, or good defense. US and Israel bombed the shit out of it with almost 0 interuptions. They invested only in offense because it doesn't give two shits about its people.
 
I find it's pretty curious move of EU allies and Asian allies not sending mine sweepers and warships to protect those ships when Trump asked for - or it's just their beef with current US government?
Maybe it would take too long or whatnot, but I don't think Trump was asking to participate in offense - but protect the tankers and mine sweeps.... of more often then not, their own nations oil tankers.
Don't they consider their crews safety, whose been stranded in the sea? Or is this something that I'm not aware of other than Trump factor? Sure, you'll be sending your sons and daughters into possible harm's way -but what about the lives of those tankers, that their ownly fault was to be at strange times.

Sure, it's not the war they were asking for, but every single one of EU nation had Iran marked as "severe threat" too. Even if they didn't offer help, I don't think they needed to actively block - like Spain. Then again, when a NATO member Turkey was attacked - they didn't do anything anyway... so It's hard to believe anything will come out of NATO in timely manner.

Oh you were not ready for a military operation. Well, more often than not - things happen when you are not ready.
 
I find it's pretty curious move of EU allies and Asian allies not sending mine sweepers and warships to protect those ships when Trump asked for - or it's just their beef with current US government?
Maybe it would take too long or whatnot, but I don't think Trump was asking to participate in offense - but protect the tankers and mine sweeps.... of more often then not, their own nations oil tankers.
Don't they consider their crews safety, whose been stranded in the sea? Or is this something that I'm not aware of other than Trump factor? Sure, you'll be sending your sons and daughters into possible harm's way -but what about the lives of those tankers, that their ownly fault was to be at strange times.

Sure, it's not the war they were asking for, but every single one of EU nation had Iran marked as "severe threat" too. Even if they didn't offer help, I don't think they needed to actively block - like Spain. Then again, when a NATO member Turkey was attacked - they didn't do anything anyway... so It's hard to believe anything will come out of NATO in timely manner.

Oh you were not ready for a military operation. Well, more often than not - things happen when you are not ready.
I have to imagine it's almost impossible - hence why the US aren't doing it.
 
I find it's pretty curious move of EU allies and Asian allies not sending mine sweepers and warships to protect those ships when Trump asked for - or it's just their beef with current US government?
Maybe it would take too long or whatnot, but I don't think Trump was asking to participate in offense - but protect the tankers and mine sweeps.... of more often then not, their own nations oil tankers.
Don't they consider their crews safety, whose been stranded in the sea? Or is this something that I'm not aware of other than Trump factor? Sure, you'll be sending your sons and daughters into possible harm's way -but what about the lives of those tankers, that their ownly fault was to be at strange times.

Sure, it's not the war they were asking for, but every single one of EU nation had Iran marked as "severe threat" too. Even if they didn't offer help, I don't think they needed to actively block - like Spain. Then again, when a NATO member Turkey was attacked - they didn't do anything anyway... so It's hard to believe anything will come out of NATO in timely manner.

Oh you were not ready for a military operation. Well, more often than not - things happen when you are not ready.
I would guess a lot of these countries are terrified of the prospects of getting involved and then not able to pull out. Possibly trickling into a larger conflict.
 
Iran has literally invested zero in defense, or good defense. US and Israel bombed the shit out of it with almost 0 interuptions. They invested only in offense because it doesn't give two shits about its people.

Considering that US attacked them after all their choice of ignoring wellbeing of their people and prepare for war was 100% on point. I have no doubt that after this war there won't be any opposition to theocracy there for next 100 years.
 
Is it true that Trump has actually used a shit load of the US ordnance and fucked up?

So all those social media accounts that were sharing clips of US rockets to rock and roll music and like pure "AMERICA! FUCK YEAH" vibes going on were actually watching their president literally sink a massive load of their stockpile down the drain, like a crazy fireworks show?
 
Is it true that Trump has actually used a shit load of the US ordnance and fucked up?

So all those social media accounts that were sharing clips of US rockets to rock and roll music and like pure "AMERICA! FUCK YEAH" vibes going on were actually watching their president literally sink a massive load of their stockpile down the drain, like a crazy fireworks show?
what would you have preferred america use, sticks and stones?

are these ordinances any different than that of the persistent Obama bombing runs?

don't just believe everything you read on the internet.
 
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Conservativism isnt going away. MAGA is though. Those are two very different things
It's one and the same to the younger generations and none of them are buying any of it.

A lot of why America got so fucked up to begin with was the blowback over Dubya's blunders, now imagine the next, even bigger wave of that.
 
I have to imagine it's almost impossible - hence why the US aren't doing it.

That's what I'm curious about. I know US decomissioned the last Avengers class mine sweeper from that region earlier this year to be scrapped - and newer LCS is supposed to replace, but not sure if it's there or not.
Timing is pretty bad for US, I must admit.

Operation of it though - LCS mine sweeper seem to operate from far away place with underwater drones - so on paper it sounds pretty safe, especially combined with air support - but there must be some more of military/tactical reasons.

Kinda wish we still had big gun warships of yore - shelling out 16" to the shore base/bunker/drone launchers constantaly.
 
I find it's pretty curious move of EU allies and Asian allies not sending mine sweepers and warships to protect those ships when Trump asked for - or it's just their beef with current US government?
They said they would be involved when the conflict is over which is when you would need minesweeping. I think it really is that simple. But minesweeping ships seem sort of bad generally in the drone warfare era.
 
I find it's pretty curious move of EU allies and Asian allies not sending mine sweepers and warships to protect those ships when Trump asked for - or it's just their beef with current US government?

Because it is impossible to protect straight of Hormuz from Iran. Many people believe that technology solves all issues but that is the furthest from the truth. Topography is the most important aspect of modern war as it was 5000 years ago.

1. Iran has insanely long shoreline that is covered with high mountains throughout whole straight.
2. Actual navigable straight is just 2km wide.
3. Simple artillery batteries can blockade whole straight from those mountain ranges. They don't need any advanced weapons or even mines.
4. Iran navy isn't like any others. They did have some high cost ships US sunk but actual bulk of their navy are literally 100s of speedboats armed with short range missiles and HMGs. Those are mostly shored within shoreline docks that lead under mountains.
5. And that straight is very congested space with civilian traffic. Not just tankers. So Iran can hide those boats effectively within civilian traffic.

that's why US started flying again A-10s there. F15/35s are too fast to get target recognition and confirm if boat belongs to Iran and helicopters have too low range. A-10 can loiter for hours and fly slow so they can get confirmation. Either way, experts say it's impossible to stop Iran from closing straight and if you see topography and asymetric status of conflict it doesn't take iq of 50 even to see why.
 
Considering that US attacked them after all their choice of ignoring wellbeing of their people and prepare for war was 100% on point. I have no doubt that after this war there won't be any opposition to theocracy there for next 100 years.
Not sure if you are cheering them on.

But after last year's attack it took the people half a year to go out to the streets. There was a lot of damage done to the Basij and IRGC, they could rise again and sooner than you think.
 
Because it is impossible to protect straight of Hormuz from Iran. Many people believe that technology solves all issues but that is the furthest from the truth. Topography is the most important aspect of modern war as it was 5000 years ago.

1. Iran has insanely long shoreline that is covered with high mountains throughout whole straight.
2. Actual navigable straight is just 2km wide.
3. Simple artillery batteries can blockade whole straight from those mountain ranges. They don't need any advanced weapons or even mines.
4. Iran navy isn't like any others. They did have some high cost ships US sunk but actual bulk of their navy are literally 100s of speedboats armed with short range missiles and HMGs. Those are mostly shored within shoreline docks that lead under mountains.
5. And that straight is very congested space with civilian traffic. Not just tankers. So Iran can hide those boats effectively within civilian traffic.

that's why US started flying again A-10s there. F15/35s are too fast to get target recognition and confirm if boat belongs to Iran and helicopters have too low range. A-10 can loiter for hours and fly slow so they can get confirmation. Either way, experts say it's impossible to stop Iran from closing straight and if you see topography and asymetric status of conflict it doesn't take iq of 50 even to see why.
Appreciate the explanation. I guess they could just shoot cannons from the hills/mountains - and easily cover all the way to Oman side as well.
 
The issue is that Iran has capability to produce ballistic missiles en masse.
BS.

In current Iran-US conflict US was shooting upwards of 8 PAC3 missiless to take down single ballistic missile from Iran
These were isolated incidents, not standard practice.

All projectile based systems have too short range
The Americans need to defend their bases, which severely reduces the detection range.
 
Because it is impossible to protect straight of Hormuz from Iran. Many people believe that technology solves all issues but that is the furthest from the truth. Topography is the most important aspect of modern war as it was 5000 years ago.

1. Iran has insanely long shoreline that is covered with high mountains throughout whole straight.
2. Actual navigable straight is just 2km wide.
3. Simple artillery batteries can blockade whole straight from those mountain ranges. They don't need any advanced weapons or even mines.
4. Iran navy isn't like any others. They did have some high cost ships US sunk but actual bulk of their navy are literally 100s of speedboats armed with short range missiles and HMGs. Those are mostly shored within shoreline docks that lead under mountains.
5. And that straight is very congested space with civilian traffic. Not just tankers. So Iran can hide those boats effectively within civilian traffic.

that's why US started flying again A-10s there. F15/35s are too fast to get target recognition and confirm if boat belongs to Iran and helicopters have too low range. A-10 can loiter for hours and fly slow so they can get confirmation. Either way, experts say it's impossible to stop Iran from closing straight and if you see topography and asymetric status of conflict it doesn't take iq of 50 even to see why.

If all this is true then wouldn't the solution be essentially Trump's threatened "zero option" to level Kharg from the air and destroy their economy. Then methodically take apart their power and transport infrastructure, while isolating them from external aid, until they are Afghanistan II ?

Its ugly, and would almost certainly bring down Pakistan too due to an influx of refugees, but it checks all the boxes ?
 
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Appreciate the explanation. I guess they could just shoot cannons from the hills/mountains - and easily cover all the way to Oman side as well.

Current modern artillery has around 50-70km range. IRGC boats are mostly there in case of invasion.
This is how it looks on map. Iran is whole north. Notice mountain ranges.

To invade Iran there are only two possible routes. One leading from afganistan and one leading through straight of Hormuz near Minab city which you can see on map. Then right into valley of death for 100s km then left into another valley of death for another 100s of kms and then you get into interior of Iran. Afganistan direction is much easier to invade but it is no walk in the park either.

VU0vhu2.jpeg


The whole problem is that, if Iran would not be spending insane amount of resources preparing for war for decades this would be already like afganistan but 20 times worse and that's conservative. But they did.
 
If all this is true then wouldn't the solution be essentially Trump's threatened "zero option" is to level Kharg from the air and destroy their economy. Then methodically take apart their power and transport infrastructure, while isolating them from external aid, until they are Afghanistan II ?

Its ugly, and would almost certainly bring down Pakistan too due to an influx of refugees, but it checks all the boxes ?

The problem here isn't in technical way for US to conquer Iran. With all it's resources US is capable of conquering Iran. Even 10 irans.
The problem is practicality.

If US will choose to do that then Iran will close straight for good. That's 20-30% of world oil being gone from market. Even now despite claims that Iran closed straight actual traffic of oil fallen down to just 50% not 0%.

Right now despite only 50% of dip Trump is on his way out because how it crashed economy. If straight is closed for good then economies will be fucked completely and people will be out for blood for government that allowed for it.

To open straight of Hormuz Iran has to be conquered by land invasion and it's government changed to allied one.
To invade Iran you need minimum 1 milion troops from estimates and that's not counting rotation, occupation and so on.
The current US army counts around 400-450k soldiers.

Which means draft. Draft is instant lose for anyone who proposes it.
That's why Trump/US will fold in this conflict and why It was stupid to begin it in the first place.

That's why US is fucked when it comes to escalation ladder. Iran knows that US overplayed hand and can't escalate further without paying price for it.
 
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The problem here isn't in technical way for US to conquer Iran. With all it's resources US is capable of conquering Iran. Even 10 irans.
The problem is practicality.

If US will choose to do that then Iran will close straight for good. That's 20-30% of world oil being gone from market. Even now despite claims that Iran closed straight actual traffic of oil fallen down to just 50% not 0%.

Right now despite only 50% of dip Trump is on his way out because how it crashed economy. If straight is closed for good then economies will be fucked completely and people will be out for blood for government that allowed for it.

To open straight of Hormuz Iran has to be conquered by land invasion and it's government changed to allied one.
To invade Iran you need minimum 1 milion troops from estimates and that's not counting rotation, occupation and so on.
The current US army counts around 400-450k soldiers.

Which means draft. Draft is instant lose for anyone who proposes it.

That's why Trump/US will fold in this conflict and why It was stupid to begin it in the first place.

To be honest I don't think having the strait closed should be treated with anything close to the level of concern as leaving a psychotic theocracy like the Iranian regime unchecked.

The reality is that Europe should be looking for petrochemical independence, or at least be greatly less dependent on oil transported along the strait because to allow it to remain, gives leverage to a ruthless and implacable enemy.

The trouble is of course that to do that would need rolling back all the green and net-zero policy because renewables for the most part are inferior in every aspect, particularly cost-effectiveness, and will lead to the revelation that the whole climate "crisis" is utter bullshit and has been from the start.
 
BS.


These were isolated incidents, not standard practice.


The Americans need to defend their bases, which severely reduces the detection range.

It's not BS. It's from official US assessment. Secondly many people think that all ballistic missiles has to be those huge SCUD like missiless but nothing is further from the truth. Iran has those but also they have many smaller grade ones they lob to saturate defenses and in between them they have those big ones that do real damage. Moreover they fire them in such a way that both drones, small ones and big ones arrive at the same time. Lately they also have been using cluster warheads for big ones, no PAC3 is gonna help anything about those. One cruster one consists of around 20-30 warheads.

The problem with ballistic missile interception is that in terminal stage of flight they are simply faster than interceptors and interceptors aren't fast enough to properly intercept them. Regardless of actual payload and there is no good way to fire PAC3s only at those huge ones.

I said upward to 8. Minimum is actual 2. At current production rate that's 300 targets per year. With 2030 production that's 1000 targets.

Idk what you mean there about bases and detection range. Those bases are there usually to provide huge radars to increase detection range.
 
To be honest I don't think having the strait closed should be treated with anything close to the level of concern as leaving a psychotic theocracy like the Iranian regime unchecked.

No one treats Iran as psychotic theocracy. That's mostly BS for public in order to manufacture consent for supposed war.
They are essentially Pakistan before they got nukes.

A quick history lesson. Before India and Pakistan got nukes everyone was taking part in their conflicts just like now in middle east. US meddled there, Uk, and so on.
They got nukes and since then you never hear anything in US/EU news other than once few months some report from another skimrish on border between them. Both Pakistan and India were considered pariahs much like Iran. India was in alliance with Russia (and they still are more or less) and Pakistan was sold to public as nutjobs and so on.

Now everyone tries to avoid they even exist. US tries to be very cordial with India and US is more or less allied with Pakistan (US was using Pakistan to attack Iraq and Afganistan from).

The moment Iran gets nukes is the moment when middle east situation stabilizes. After them Turkey will be next and Israel will probably publicly announce they own nukes too. US wants to avoid that and Israel because Isreal has greater israel project on their mind and target is to be hegemon in middle east.

After Iran, Turkey will be next in line.
 
The moment Iran gets nukes is the moment when middle east situation stabilizes. After them Turkey will be next and Israel will probably publicly announce they own nukes too. US wants to avoid that and Israel because Isreal has greater israel project on their mind and target is to be hegemon in middle east.

The moment Iran gets nukes is when the Israeli's drop their stance of nuclear ambiguity that they've been cultivating since the 1980's and the entire region turns into a nuclear tinderbox.

Iran is not Pakistan. Pakistan is a failed state barely held together by a military dictatorship. Iran is a theocracy, the I in IRGC is not Iran, its Islamic. Its baked-in and has been since 1979.
 
No one treats Iran as psychotic theocracy. That's mostly BS for public in order to manufacture consent for supposed war.
They are essentially Pakistan before they got nukes.

A quick history lesson. Before India and Pakistan got nukes everyone was taking part in their conflicts just like now in middle east. US meddled there, Uk, and so on.
They got nukes and since then you never hear anything in US/EU news other than once few months some report from another skimrish on border between them. Both Pakistan and India were considered pariahs much like Iran. India was in alliance with Russia (and they still are more or less) and Pakistan was sold to public as nutjobs and so on.

Now everyone tries to avoid they even exist. US tries to be very cordial with India and US is more or less allied with Pakistan (US was using Pakistan to attack Iraq and Afganistan from).

The moment Iran gets nukes is the moment when middle east situation stabilizes. After them Turkey will be next and Israel will probably publicly announce they own nukes too. US wants to avoid that and Israel because Isreal has greater israel project on their mind and target is to be hegemon in middle east.

After Iran, Turkey will be next in line.
And of course the crazy reveals itself.
 
No one treats Iran as psychotic theocracy. That's mostly BS for public in order to manufacture consent for supposed war.
They are essentially Pakistan before they got nukes.

A quick history lesson. Before India and Pakistan got nukes everyone was taking part in their conflicts just like now in middle east. US meddled there, Uk, and so on.
They got nukes and since then you never hear anything in US/EU news other than once few months some report from another skimrish on border between them. Both Pakistan and India were considered pariahs much like Iran. India was in alliance with Russia (and they still are more or less) and Pakistan was sold to public as nutjobs and so on.

Now everyone tries to avoid they even exist. US tries to be very cordial with India and US is more or less allied with Pakistan (US was using Pakistan to attack Iraq and Afganistan from).

The moment Iran gets nukes is the moment when middle east situation stabilizes. After them Turkey will be next and Israel will probably publicly announce they own nukes too. US wants to avoid that and Israel because Isreal has greater israel project on their mind and target is to be hegemon in middle east.

After Iran, Turkey will be next in line.
for a history lesson you haven't got much correct in terms of what happens between India and pakistan to this day.

they were literally going to nuke each other not that long ago, they are constantly slaughtering each other on their borders and while the world is ok with doing trade with india most still see Pakistan as a pariah, they literally started attacking the US embassy on day one of this Iran war.

It's insane to think the country that is literally trying to bomb the civilians of all countries nearest to it that aren't true believers is going to just get a nuke and be complacent.

I can't believe i just read that Iran getting a nuke is going to equal peace in the middle east, like i literally just read someone say that...
 
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The problem here isn't in technical way for US to conquer Iran. With all it's resources US is capable of conquering Iran. Even 10 irans.
The problem is practicality.

If US will choose to do that then Iran will close straight for good. That's 20-30% of world oil being gone from market. Even now despite claims that Iran closed straight actual traffic of oil fallen down to just 50% not 0%.

Right now despite only 50% of dip Trump is on his way out because how it crashed economy. If straight is closed for good then economies will be fucked completely and people will be out for blood for government that allowed for it.

To open straight of Hormuz Iran has to be conquered by land invasion and it's government changed to allied one.
To invade Iran you need minimum 1 milion troops from estimates and that's not counting rotation, occupation and so on.
The current US army counts around 400-450k soldiers.

Which means draft. Draft is instant lose for anyone who proposes it.
That's why Trump/US will fold in this conflict and why It was stupid to begin it in the first place.

That's why US is fucked when it comes to escalation ladder. Iran knows that US overplayed hand and can't escalate further without paying price for it.

That's also taking account Iran's capacity and capability at tip top condition, and their military is at full capacity.
We know we didn't take out the all the missiles or drones or boats yet in that region as they seem to be shooting out fair bit of missiles.

Plus, right now the country is having a severe water shortage to begin with (they over used their underground water source) - that their 4 major dams are like 2-5% capacity.
Most of their industry, that's even remotely related to the military have been destroyed. The country is expected to lose over 10% of GDP from sustained damage + unsustainable inflation thats been going on (which led Jan revolt)
Closure of the strait is a double edged sword for them too - that they also have severe food shortage (rice/flour) etc.

And their governing body (who wants to talk) and extreme IRGC who wants to fight are not on the same line either - and all we hear about Iranian side is thru that talking head.
So the question is whether Iran has time and supply to continue on? Only thing IRGC seem to have is now the will (at least on surface level) to fight on without imploding themselves.

As per the rest of the world, they will find some other source and route - which they will have to in order to survive - so I'm not too worried. No country is just going to sit around w/o looking into alternative source/route for the energy, IMO.
 
for a history lesson you haven't got much correct in terms of what happens between India and pakistan to this day.
they were literally going to nuke each other not that long ago, they are constantly slaughtering each other on their borders and while the world is ok with doing trade with india most still see Pakistan as a pariah, they literally started attacking the US embassy on day one of this Iran war.
It's insane to think the country that is literally trying to bomb the civilians of all countries nearest to it that aren't true believers is going to just get a nuke and be complacent.
I can't believe i just read that Iran getting a nuke is going to equal peace in the middle east, like i literally just read someone say that...

Did they nuke each other ? No. China is also fighting with India at the border with India often. Did they nuke each other ? No. US is fighting proxy war in Ukraine with Russia. Did US nuke Russia and Russia nuked US ? No. Do you see the problem with you reasoning or do I need to spell it out ?
As for Pakistan the current peace talks are headed by JD Vance... guess where. In fucking Pakistan. And like I said both in Iraq and Afganistan war US was using bases in Pakistan to launch invasion and strikes.
Even when Osama motherfucking Binladen was found in Pakistan US didn't even send a protest note to Pakistan gov.
Just because in Pakistan there are nutjobs that will attack and protest US doesn't mean a shit toward relations between US and Pakistan.
 
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Did they nuke each other ? No. China is also fighting with India at the border with India often. Did they nuke each other ? No. US is fighting proxy war in Ukraine with Russia. Did US nuke Russia and Russia nuked US ? No. Do you see the problem with you reasoning or do I need to spell it out ?

As for Pakistan the current peace talks are headed by JD Vance... guess where. In fucking Pakistan. And like I said both in Iraq and Afganistan war US was using bases in Pakistan to launch invasion and strikes.

Even when Osama motherfucking Binladen was found in Pakistan US didn't even send a protest note to Pakistan gov.

Just because in Pakistan there are nutjobs that will attack and protest US doesn't mean a shit toward relations between US and Pakistan.
Your reasoning is stupid because it always requires foreign interventions before they don't nuke each other... So Iran getting a nuke will bring world peace because everytime they wanna nuke someone we all gotta run there and stop them with gifts and deals... that's assanine.

He's going to Pakistan because Pakistan has defence pacts with nations, who their best buds (IRGC) are busy bombing, and they are shit scared of being pulled into a war they know they'll absolutely lose. Pakistan isn't just one people, you know that right? Same as how Lebanon and Gaza weren't one people either, these are states that are either run by terrorism or have terrorist occupations across their countries.

You kind of just answered your own conundrum, why do you think Bin Ladin was hiding in Pakistan?

It actually means alot in relations when your people attack your foreign embassy, to play that off as just good fun is weird. Pakistan is absolutely still a pariah globally, but even if everyone loved Pakistan, that doesn't stop the fact that those fuckers are at war 24/7 and it escalated to the point where the world was expecting nukes to be used because the feud is so deepseated in hatred, India however have the historical context with the UK and have had strong ties since before the division of persia and the Middle east. Those partnerships go far back.

Nothing of what you said Proves or indicates any modocum of reasoning why Iran SHOULD have a nuke and that it would bring peace, in fact you even suggest turkey should have too... sure just let everyone have nukes that's gonna end so well for the world.

The fuckers now who have nukes we can barely trust, Putin threatens that shit every other year, at what point does he just do it.
 
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The only reason they're meeting in Pakistan is cause it's one of the very few countries that has good relations with both the US and Iran.

Trump is a surprisingly ok with the current Pakistani PM and head of army.

 
I would like to believe Iran's ambition of taking nuclear bomb as defensive measure, but really cant.
Their theocratic leaders have been shouting the destruction of Israel is their "holy requirement" for Mahdi's arrival - and have acted persistently to destroy Israel by funding Hezbollah, Hamas and Hoothis.
Unlike any other country in the world, Iran's got all the motivation to shoot a nuke at Israel, because it's driven by religious justice.

That's why I don't think fanatical theocracy should be in power but a secular one, which is only possible inside, by Iranians.
I guess Israel and USA overestimated Iranian civilians courage after that 40k massacre in January.
 
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People seem to conflate military success and "war success" I do think the US military has mostly achieved the missions they have sent their airmen/soldiers on. The rescue of the pilots was a unanimous success, but the Strait of Hormuz hasn't been a successful outcome in terms of the general war.

As you say, the operation itself, as in soldiers doing what they are tasked to do, has been mostly a success. There's no doubt that the US military is still lethal and precise and achieve their goals.

That's the definition of a strategic loss, if they can't extract significant concessions at the table.
 
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"The problem is the military's a racket, it's the military industrial complex version of a somali daycare. The iranian military budget is 10 billion dollars..."

 
🚨 Happening watch! 🚨

More US interference in EU elections.

paul happening GIF


Trump under orders of FSB is doubling down on Hungary.

X9vpM8A.jpeg


Community note: Viktor Orban is the most corrupt leader within the European Union. I suppose it fits with Trump though.
 
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🚨 Happening watch! 🚨

More US interference in EU elections.

paul happening GIF


Trump under orders of FSB is doubling down on Hungary.

X9vpM8A.jpeg


Community note: Viktor Orban is the most corrupt leader within the European Union. I suppose it fits with Trump though.

I really wish he would stop the nonsense. I'm also hoping even the most die hard fan of this guy is cringing at these posts.
 
🚨 Happening watch! 🚨

More US interference in EU elections.

paul happening GIF


Trump under orders of FSB is doubling down on Hungary.

X9vpM8A.jpeg


Community note: Viktor Orban is the most corrupt leader within the European Union. I suppose it fits with Trump though.





Bro how about you use some of that full economic might to sort shit out in our own country first? You literally said 2 weeks ago that we 'can't afford daycare' or some shit like that ..

Where's that healthcare plan that's been coming for 2 weeks since 2016? :messenger_grimmacing_
 
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