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Monitoring the situation in Iran

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Again? What a fucking mess of negotiations.


Both India and China are closer to the straight of Ormuz, yet none of them is doing anything to help. And both depend more on it for oil and gas than Europe.
Trump has called for their assistance but they just ignored him.
That would seem like a FAFO situation. Much like a lot of this has been.
 
The salt levels 😂

A major discussion point of the thread -and media coverage of the war- has been that military action against Iran was a huge mistake because of their ability to retaliate by closing the strait, that this could only be countered by a ground invasion, and that the Trump administration had ignored this reality before acting.

That analysis apparently turning out to be completely false, and that the military action could be conducted and then the strait forced open again by (very briefly) using US naval supremacy to apply an economic chokehold, seems like a significant development.
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Grim Reaper Stars GIF by Xbox
This sequence of posts and the GIF selection, within minutes of each other, is a work of art only possible on an Internet forum. I love this place.
 
Ceasefire with Iran ends in two days, right? Not like they followed through on their side of the deal though, so not sure it served much purpose beyond savings few drone attacks on the GCC countries.
 
Ceasefire with Iran ends in two days, right? Not like they followed through on their side of the deal though, so not sure it served much purpose beyond savings few drone attacks on the GCC countries.
It's prob gonna get extended. I dunno if they have been actual talks.
 
The ceasefire has been very productive: cracks are showing in the regime, and we found out that Iran's price for bending the knee over the strait is being let out of the economic chokehold the blockade has put them in, ie. they are willing to trade the only leverage they have (and it's not even great leverage vs the US) for a card President Trump conjured out of thin air a week ago expressly for the purpose of trading.

Where Iran messed up is being so desperate to take that deal and get out of the chokehold that they tipped their hand. Now President Trump knows the blockade card can be traded for more than just a quick fix to the strait.
 
How is there in fighting when your military and political structure all answer to the same guy, the new not seen yet sub-supreme leader ? Something fishy.

Honestly I was shocked they opened the Strait despite US blockade. Made no sense unless Trump was going to give them a good deal which would be embarrassing for US.
 
I thought Mr Trump said Iran had no boats and no launch capability

It's easy to hammer anything passing through with artillery. Radio pleading probably occurred under that kind of fire, not dodging missiles. edit: It can't be good for insurance clearance when Iran says you're good to pass and then fires anyway, whether by intention or incompetence.
 
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Macron of course was very verbal as he bent over.

Could be worse. Israel bending over for Russia repeatedly despite the Russians support for Iran and Hamas is certainly some weird shit.


Reminder that experts agree that it is highly probably that Russia knew about October 7th before it happened.
 
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They give Iran too much time. It is pretty clear that IRGC wants to drag it as long as possible and it won't go anywhere. The longer it drags, the more time IRGC has.

Turkey is probably one of the most concerned parties there.
 
They must have read reddit and convinced themselves they are winning this.
Absurd. Everyone knows that America is winning because America is a nation of winners and always wins. The main confusing thing is why the US has not declared victory yet and bravely relocated its ships to other waters leaving the strait closed.
 
Seems like the Iranians are either not interested in going or are denying that any Iranian negotiators there have any credibility.
Iranians are not interest. They want to drag it as long as possible to buy themselves time and ideally wait until all american troops leave the region. They are just dragging it. That's why negotiations are useless and they won't learn until the bombed to the stone age.
 
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