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[ChuckeRearmed]

The collapse, no. But a change in government, yes.
Maybe something like a constitutional monarchy, with the return of the Shad, could be something feasible, that most Iranians could get behind.

Shah has no power in Iran. I know people love talking about him as people are chanting his name that but Shah is like that interim vice president Elbaradei really, who was also very popular, propped up by the western government but lasted like 2 months (with Monsour) after one coup (against Muslim Brotherhood) and then another kinda coup where Sisi just became a president. It is telling that the Artesh is not doing anything in Iran despite the confrontation between IRGC and the protesters. And that's without various militant groups that exist within Iran still (opposition forces and terrorists).

Shah has no real political influence in Iran. None. Elites behind Artesh just won't accept an outsider who hasn't been in power for 40+ years. Why would they give power away like that?

I think by and large, ayatollah and IRGC are cooked. But nobody wants them to fall for real in the region. Too much unpredictability.

• You have shia groups in Iraq and gulf monarchies that might revolt in their provinces in Qatar and Saudi Arabia (one of the reasons Saudi Arabia was openly against the direct attack). They can be united in their "hate" against Israel, but Iran is a different matter;
• you have kurds in Syria that Turkey wages the war against and they might be pushed deeper into Iran (due to collapsing IRGC), which becomes an issue for Turkey;
• you have azerbaijani (province) who literally fought against IRGC recently and also kinda hate Shah historically;
• you have sunni group insurgency in Sistan and Baluchestan that is still ongoing (and that's without the mess in Pakistan/Balochistan)
• you have issues in Afghanistan right now;
• you have water crisis in Iran too;

So the risks of the fragmentation are high and the region still is unable to recover post Iraq collapse (due to many of the Iraqi officers founding ISIS later). Hell, even Syria post-Assad is not stable still. Imagine adding the collapse of Iran that essentially a wall against the Central Asia and South Asia.

Potentially they might be culled. Especially with the banking collapse in Iran. Some tigher leash for example. Maybe some scenario like Venezuela. Iran has a population of 90m+. Comparable to Turkey but more than Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia co.

I don't know what is going to happen but right now - especially after China and Russia abandoning Iran - it would be a chance to put Iran on a leash as a weakened country who is unable to project power in the region anymore but can serve as a buffer zone.

 

[kruis]

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In addition to senior officials in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Egypt, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also spoke to President Donald J. Trump on Wednesday and requested that he postpone any plans for an American military attack on Iran, concerned that an attack could lead to a wider regional conflict, worries seemingly shared by Gulf States, a senior U.S. official told the New York Times.
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That seems to tie in to this news report.



The Washington Post reports that Israel and Iran exchanged secret messages via Russia in late December, aimed at preventing a new escalation.According to the paper, Israeli officials told Tehran (through a Russian intermediary) that they would not strike Iran unless Israel was attacked first. Tehran reportedly replied via the same channel that it would also refrain from a preemptive attack.

==============

Crazy that Israel and Iran are using Russia as an intermediate to cool things down.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

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Senior Iranian official Mohsen Rezaee taunts Trump:

"It brings to mind Hitler's army getting trapped by Russia's winter.

After that defeat, Germany could no longer be saved and half the country was lost.

Iran serves the same purpose today.

The further Trump pushes ahead, the worse his position becomes."
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Thy can try burning his effigy or something. That will show him.

Crazy that Israel and Iran are using Russia as an intermediate to cool things down.

Not really crazy. Israel and Russia hasn't been true enemies ever really. Yeah, propping up Assad was a contentious point but even in the Ukrainian war, Israel hasn't not been against Russia really. Only later Russia took a tougher stance against Israel because it needed the support from Iran (when they had issues with drone production). Russia is an ally for Israel against Turkey (well at least it was but now probably it becomes harder for them to do anything against Turkey). Same as with SA or Qatar arranging talks between Russia and USA and Ukraine. Or Oman serving as intermediary between Iran and USA. It is all trade.

World alliances and connections are crazy. That's why people should not be surprised each time when Trump tries to deal with so many people he supposed to be enemy with. He is not an ideological person. I do wonder how the conversation went:
- Yo Vova, Bibi is here. Could you ping Khame? He is not responding
- Sure bro.
- Hey, Bibi what did you want?
- I wanted to say that we are not attacking you.
- Oh, got it. I will tell my boys

What it demonstrates though, is the fact that USA is so dangerous that you have whole regions scrambling to find a solution to address matters like this.

 

[jason10mm]

Thy can try burning his effigy or something. That will show him.

 

[Madonis]

Crazy that Israel and Iran are using Russia as an intermediate to cool things down.

The cynical, depressing truth is that they need each other.

Israel needs Iran as a boogeyman and likewise goes for Iran with Israel.

 

[Herbspiceguy]

The cynical, depressing truth is that they need each other.

Israel needs Iran as a boogeyman and likewise goes for Iran with Israel.

Yes, having peace in the Middle East simply isn't in the interest for those with all the power and wealth.

 

[delirium trigger]

If they go in, they're not going in when you think they are.

 

[jason10mm]

If they go in, they're not going in when you think they are.

When they do go in, I hope they dress like this.....

 

[DeepEnigma]

When they do go in, I hope they dress like this.....

This would be far more legendary.

 

[Senua]

This would be far more legendary.

Careful

 

[jason10mm]

This would be far more legendary.

It's already happening, but I think Crusade related symbology is gonna be a MAJOR lodestone for anti illegal immigrant/mass refugee sentiment, probably so much so the symbols will suddenly be associated with "far-right nazi fascists" by the media in yet another attempt to squash and erode the public opinion on the issue.

 

[DeepEnigma]

It's already happening, but I think Crusade related symbology is gonna be a MAJOR lodestone for anti illegal immigrant/mass refugee sentiment, probably so much so the symbols will suddenly be associated with "far-right nazi fascists" by the media in yet another attempt to squash and erode the public opinion on the issue.

Too late.

The hard right is claiming the cross – and true Christians should not allow it | Polly Toynbee

British church leaders have finally spoken out about the dangerous rise of Christian nationalism. But their message was far too timid, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee

www.theguardian.com

They also propagate it as being a "white religion" more often than not as well. Ignoring the millions of Arab, African, Hispanic, etc., Christians.

 

[EviLore]

 

[RJMacready73]

Yeah they'd be dealing with a country that can basically fly in and out at will dropping bombs willy nilly and you'd be powerless to stop them

 

[Madonis]

Conversely, if the U.S. and its allies can weather the storm and continue taking action until there's success, then Iran won't be able to threaten anyone like this anymore.

Not doing anything only guarantees that this guy or someone else will get to make the same threats in the future.

I don't know what is going to happen but right now - especially after China and Russia abandoning Iran - it would be a chance to put Iran on a leash as a weakened country who is unable to project power in the region anymore but can serve as a buffer zone.

Right. If you don't do it now, then the next time it's possible Iran will have stronger backing from China, Russia and/or others by then, if only for their own self-interest(s) and regional ambitions.

 

[Hero of Spielberg]

Yeah they'd be dealing with a country that can basically fly in and out at will dropping bombs willy nilly and you'd be powerless to stop them

Problem is if it becomes a protracted situation and US have to keep making strikes and Iran strikes US bases in response, the Trump has got himself into a war in the Middle East. That's the threat from Iran here, not that they'd necessarily 'win', just that it won't be the 'in and out' operation that Trump needs it to be.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

 

[Madonis]

Problem is if it becomes a protracted situation and US have to keep making strikes and Iran strikes US bases in response, the Trump has got himself into a war in the Middle East. That's the threat from Iran here, not that they'd necessarily 'win', just that it won't be the 'in and out' operation that Trump needs it to be.

The other argument, such as it is, would be that if you weaken their forces enough, then the opposition should have an easier time to organize and act, because Iran's regime can't handle dealing with everything at once.

Which is part of why it's so tragic that Trump spoke like he was going to act in a matter of days or hours, since that caused more people to go out...only to be repressed with even more merciless tactics and without interruption.

 

[ADiTAR]

While the world was afraid of a Nuclear Iran, they built a shit ton of ballistic missiles which are just as much as a threat. They still have those.

They need an action to wipe out all of them in one go.

Also from Israeli media, the strike was postponed not cancelled.

 

[Hero of Spielberg]

The other argument, such as it is, would be that if you weaken their forces enough, then the opposition should have an easier time to organize and act, because Iran's regime can't handle dealing with everything at once.

From what I've read, one of the other problems is the lack of a united opposition.

Who could lead Iran if the Islamic Republic falls?

Names frequently raised include an exiled prince, a former president, and the leader of a leftist movement, but experts say no single figure has the power and legitimacy to take control alone.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

While the world was afraid of a Nuclear Iran, they built a shit ton of ballistic missiles which are just as much as a threat. They still have those.

They need an action to wipe out all of them in one go.

Also from Israeli media, the strike was postponed not cancelled.

Most of those missiles were already destroyed last year i think

 

[Madonis]

From what I've read, one of the other problems is the lack of a united opposition.

Who could lead Iran if the Islamic Republic falls?

Names frequently raised include an exiled prince, a former president, and the leader of a leftist movement, but experts say no single figure has the power and legitimacy to take control alone.

www.abc.net.au

That's a completely valid point, but they could deal with this a lot easier when you can get at least a bit of temporary breathing room from the repression.