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Monitoring the situation in Iran

winjer said:
The collapse, no. But a change in government, yes.
Maybe something like a constitutional monarchy, with the return of the Shad, could be something feasible, that most Iranians could get behind.
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Shah has no power in Iran. I know people love talking about him as people are chanting his name that but Shah is like that interim vice president Elbaradei really, who was also very popular, propped up by the western government but lasted like 2 months (with Monsour) after one coup (against Muslim Brotherhood) and then another kinda coup where Sisi just became a president. It is telling that the Artesh is not doing anything in Iran despite the confrontation between IRGC and the protesters. And that's without various militant groups that exist within Iran still (opposition forces and terrorists).

Shah has no real political influence in Iran. None. Elites behind Artesh just won't accept an outsider who hasn't been in power for 40+ years. Why would they give power away like that?

I think by and large, ayatollah and IRGC are cooked. But nobody wants them to fall for real in the region. Too much unpredictability.
  • You have shia groups in Iraq and gulf monarchies that might revolt in their provinces in Qatar and Saudi Arabia (one of the reasons Saudi Arabia was openly against the direct attack). They can be united in their "hate" against Israel, but Iran is a different matter;
  • you have kurds in Syria that Turkey wages the war against and they might be pushed deeper into Iran (due to collapsing IRGC), which becomes an issue for Turkey;
  • you have azerbaijani (province) who literally fought against IRGC recently and also kinda hate Shah historically;
  • you have sunni group insurgency in Sistan and Baluchestan that is still ongoing (and that's without the mess in Pakistan/Balochistan)
  • you have issues in Afghanistan right now;
  • you have water crisis in Iran too;
So the risks of the fragmentation are high and the region still is unable to recover post Iraq collapse (due to many of the Iraqi officers founding ISIS later). Hell, even Syria post-Assad is not stable still. Imagine adding the collapse of Iran that essentially a wall against the Central Asia and South Asia.

Potentially they might be culled. Especially with the banking collapse in Iran. Some tigher leash for example. Maybe some scenario like Venezuela. Iran has a population of 90m+. Comparable to Turkey but more than Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia co.

I don't know what is going to happen but right now - especially after China and Russia abandoning Iran - it would be a chance to put Iran on a leash as a weakened country who is unable to project power in the region anymore but can serve as a buffer zone.
 
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EviLore said:


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In addition to senior officials in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Egypt, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also spoke to President Donald J. Trump on Wednesday and requested that he postpone any plans for an American military attack on Iran, concerned that an attack could lead to a wider regional conflict, worries seemingly shared by Gulf States, a senior U.S. official told the New York Times.
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That seems to tie in to this news report.



The Washington Post reports that Israel and Iran exchanged secret messages via Russia in late December, aimed at preventing a new escalation.According to the paper, Israeli officials told Tehran (through a Russian intermediary) that they would not strike Iran unless Israel was attacked first. Tehran reportedly replied via the same channel that it would also refrain from a preemptive attack.

==============

Crazy that Israel and Iran are using Russia as an intermediate to cool things down.
 
EviLore said:


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Senior Iranian official Mohsen Rezaee taunts Trump:

"It brings to mind Hitler's army getting trapped by Russia's winter.

After that defeat, Germany could no longer be saved and half the country was lost.

Iran serves the same purpose today.

The further Trump pushes ahead, the worse his position becomes."
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Thy can try burning his effigy or something. That will show him.

kruis said:
Crazy that Israel and Iran are using Russia as an intermediate to cool things down.
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Not really crazy. Israel and Russia hasn't been true enemies ever really. Yeah, propping up Assad was a contentious point but even in the Ukrainian war, Israel hasn't not been against Russia really. Only later Russia took a tougher stance against Israel because it needed the support from Iran (when they had issues with drone production). Russia is an ally for Israel against Turkey (well at least it was but now probably it becomes harder for them to do anything against Turkey). Same as with SA or Qatar arranging talks between Russia and USA and Ukraine. Or Oman serving as intermediary between Iran and USA. It is all trade.

World alliances and connections are crazy. That's why people should not be surprised each time when Trump tries to deal with so many people he supposed to be enemy with. He is not an ideological person. I do wonder how the conversation went:
- Yo Vova, Bibi is here. Could you ping Khame? He is not responding
- Sure bro.
- Hey, Bibi what did you want?
- I wanted to say that we are not attacking you.
- Oh, got it. I will tell my boys

What it demonstrates though, is the fact that USA is so dangerous that you have whole regions scrambling to find a solution to address matters like this.
 
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ChuckeRearmed said:
Thy can try burning his effigy or something. That will show him.
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WQvYziKo6o4qf0nj.jpg
 
kruis said:
Crazy that Israel and Iran are using Russia as an intermediate to cool things down.
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The cynical, depressing truth is that they need each other.

Israel needs Iran as a boogeyman and likewise goes for Iran with Israel.
 
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DeepEnigma said:
This would be far more legendary.
tom cullen battle GIF by HISTORY UK
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It's already happening, but I think Crusade related symbology is gonna be a MAJOR lodestone for anti illegal immigrant/mass refugee sentiment, probably so much so the symbols will suddenly be associated with "far-right nazi fascists" by the media in yet another attempt to squash and erode the public opinion on the issue.
 
jason10mm said:
It's already happening, but I think Crusade related symbology is gonna be a MAJOR lodestone for anti illegal immigrant/mass refugee sentiment, probably so much so the symbols will suddenly be associated with "far-right nazi fascists" by the media in yet another attempt to squash and erode the public opinion on the issue.
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Too late.

www.theguardian.com

The hard right is claiming the cross – and true Christians should not allow it | Polly Toynbee

British church leaders have finally spoken out about the dangerous rise of Christian nationalism. But their message was far too timid, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

They also propagate it as being a "white religion" more often than not as well. Ignoring the millions of Arab, African, Hispanic, etc., Christians.
 
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EviLore said:
Click to expand...


Conversely, if the U.S. and its allies can weather the storm and continue taking action until there's success, then Iran won't be able to threaten anyone like this anymore.

Not doing anything only guarantees that this guy or someone else will get to make the same threats in the future.

ChuckeRearmed said:
I don't know what is going to happen but right now - especially after China and Russia abandoning Iran - it would be a chance to put Iran on a leash as a weakened country who is unable to project power in the region anymore but can serve as a buffer zone.
Click to expand...

Right. If you don't do it now, then the next time it's possible Iran will have stronger backing from China, Russia and/or others by then, if only for their own self-interest(s) and regional ambitions.
 
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RJMacready73 said:
Yeah they'd be dealing with a country that can basically fly in and out at will dropping bombs willy nilly and you'd be powerless to stop them
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Problem is if it becomes a protracted situation and US have to keep making strikes and Iran strikes US bases in response, the Trump has got himself into a war in the Middle East. That's the threat from Iran here, not that they'd necessarily 'win', just that it won't be the 'in and out' operation that Trump needs it to be.
 
Hero of Spielberg said:
Problem is if it becomes a protracted situation and US have to keep making strikes and Iran strikes US bases in response, the Trump has got himself into a war in the Middle East. That's the threat from Iran here, not that they'd necessarily 'win', just that it won't be the 'in and out' operation that Trump needs it to be.
Click to expand...

The other argument, such as it is, would be that if you weaken their forces enough, then the opposition should have an easier time to organize and act, because Iran's regime can't handle dealing with everything at once.

Which is part of why it's so tragic that Trump spoke like he was going to act in a matter of days or hours, since that caused more people to go out...only to be repressed with even more merciless tactics and without interruption.
 
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While the world was afraid of a Nuclear Iran, they built a shit ton of ballistic missiles which are just as much as a threat. They still have those.

They need an action to wipe out all of them in one go.

Also from Israeli media, the strike was postponed not cancelled.
 
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Madonis said:
The other argument, such as it is, would be that if you weaken their forces enough, then the opposition should have an easier time to organize and act, because Iran's regime can't handle dealing with everything at once.
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From what I've read, one of the other problems is the lack of a united opposition.

www.abc.net.au

Who could lead Iran if the Islamic Republic falls?

Names frequently raised include an exiled prince, a former president, and the leader of a leftist movement, but experts say no single figure has the power and legitimacy to take control alone.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
ADiTAR said:
While the world was afraid of a Nuclear Iran, they built a shit ton of ballistic missiles which are just as much as a threat. They still have those.

They need an action to wipe out all of them in one go.

Also from Israeli media, the strike was postponed not cancelled.
Click to expand...

Most of those missiles were already destroyed last year i think
 
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Hero of Spielberg said:
From what I've read, one of the other problems is the lack of a united opposition.

www.abc.net.au

Who could lead Iran if the Islamic Republic falls?

Names frequently raised include an exiled prince, a former president, and the leader of a leftist movement, but experts say no single figure has the power and legitimacy to take control alone.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
Click to expand...

That's a completely valid point, but they could deal with this a lot easier when you can get at least a bit of temporary breathing room from the repression.
 
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Hero of Spielberg said:
Problem is if it becomes a protracted situation and US have to keep making strikes and Iran strikes US bases in response, the Trump has got himself into a war in the Middle East. That's the threat from Iran here, not that they'd necessarily 'win', just that it won't be the 'in and out' operation that Trump needs it to be.
Click to expand...
It's not a war when you have air superiority right from get go and have absolutely no intentions of landing forces, all you need to be doing is a few sorties here and there taking out the senior leadership
 
RJMacready73 said:
It's not a war when you have air superiority right from get go and have absolutely no intentions of landing forces, all you need to be doing is a few sorties here and there taking out the senior leadership
Click to expand...
Do people forget desert storm?

War was over in the air before allied forces could even engage.

If Israel can achieve air superiority in 1 day... Us navy alone could in 12 hours
 
RJMacready73 said:
It's not a war when you have air superiority right from get go and have absolutely no intentions of landing forces, all you need to be doing is a few sorties here and there taking out the senior leadership
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War is an armed conflict, doesn't matter if there are landing forces or not.

It's the reason why Trump is asking the military for precision. He knows if it drags on at all it will be perceived as the US getting involved in a war in the Middle East.
 
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Madonis said:
Right. If you don't do it now, then the next time it's possible Iran will have stronger backing from China, Russia and/or others by then, if only for their own self-interest(s) and regional ambitions.
Click to expand...
They won't get stronger backing anymore. That's the whole point- just before the strike all their allies abandoned them. Do you think they will change their mind now? Or do you think Iran will trust them again?

Madonis said:
The other argument, such as it is, would be that if you weaken their forces enough, then the opposition should have an easier time to organize and act, because Iran's regime can't handle dealing with everything at once.

Which is part of why it's so tragic that Trump spoke like he was going to act in a matter of days or hours, since that caused more people to go out...only to be repressed with even more merciless tactics and without interruption.
Click to expand...
Bombing would not have changed anything. There is no organized opposition - aside some terrorist groups and the protesters failed to build an organization. If elites within wanted a change, Artesh would have joined the protesters and the police too. It did not happen. So the protesters will be supressed if the elites within do nothing.

That's why am curious what Saudi and Qatar are offering.
 
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Madonis said:
That's a completely valid point, but they could deal with this a lot easier when you can get at least a bit of temporary breathing room from the repression.
Click to expand...
Except that's not how it usually works.

Donald mac Ronald said:
Do people forget desert storm?

War was over in the air before allied forces could even engage.

If Israel can achieve air superiority in 1 day... Us navy alone could in 12 hours
Click to expand...
Iraq had a completely different landscape. The problem in Iran is not the bombings per se or air superiority. But its very complicated landscape. Kinda like Afghanistan.
 
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According to CNN, Bibi asked Trump to hold off the attack because Israel defenses weren't ready. I could see that. Iran did manage to cause havoc in Israel during the war. It's just a shame that that war didn't end with them more weakened.

Even though Israel's new houses (last 20-30 years) have built in bomb shelters, they were not protective against a close or direct hit.
 
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ADiTAR said:
According to CNN, Bibi asked Trump to hold off the attack because Israel defenses weren't ready. I could see that. Iran did manage to cause havoc in Israel during the war. It's just a shame that that war didn't end with them more weakened.

Even though Israel's new houses (last 20-30 years) have built in bomb shelters, they were not protective against a close or direct hit.
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I guess what has happened is that countries did not believe that Trump would strike and then realized that he was not actually joking.
 
ChuckeRearmed said:
They won't get stronger backing anymore. That's the whole point- just before the strike all their allies abandoned them. Do you think they will change their mind now? Or do you think Iran will trust them again?


Bombing would not have changed anything. There is no organized opposition - aside some terrorist groups and the protesters failed to build an organization. If elites within wanted a change, Artesh would have joined the protesters and the police too. It did not happen. So the protesters will be supressed if the elites within do nothing.

That's why am curious what Saudi and Qatar are offering.
Click to expand...
As someone whos parents are Iranian and I've visited the country a few times, I can say with confidence that the Iranian regime takes good care of their police officials and most likely also higher ranking military personnel.
My uncle used to be a cop in Iran, he retired 10+ years ago, but they essentially lived in a gated community and had a pretty nice house, they also got a lot of benefits which other Iranians didn't. I'd imagine it's so that if protests like these start, they wouldn't go against the regime so easily.
Funnily enough, my dad's family are quite wealthy there, there are doctors and architects among them so some of them lived in pretty fancy houses, but they absolutely hated Iranian regime.
 
ADiTAR said:
They knew he would, there is full cooperation with Israel. And prob Qatar too.
Click to expand...
They did not know the scale or how it would have gone. Otherwise they would not have tried to stop him at the last moment. They certainly did not have some information until the last moment.

Granted it is also possible that JD allegedly was also opposing the attack - especially with Tucker roaming around.

All in all, i dont think ayatollah will last. The question is how he is going to dissappear.
 
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ChuckeRearmed said:
Shah has no power in Iran. I know people love talking about him as people are chanting his name that but Shah is like that interim vice president Elbaradei really, who was also very popular, propped up by the western government but lasted like 2 months (with Monsour) after one coup (against Muslim Brotherhood) and then another kinda coup where Sisi just became a president. It is telling that the Artesh is not doing anything in Iran despite the confrontation between IRGC and the protesters. And that's without various militant groups that exist within Iran still (opposition forces and terrorists).

Shah has no real political influence in Iran. None. Elites behind Artesh just won't accept an outsider who hasn't been in power for 40+ years. Why would they give power away like that?

I think by and large, ayatollah and IRGC are cooked. But nobody wants them to fall for real in the region. Too much unpredictability.
  • You have shia groups in Iraq and gulf monarchies that might revolt in their provinces in Qatar and Saudi Arabia (one of the reasons Saudi Arabia was openly against the direct attack). They can be united in their "hate" against Israel, but Iran is a different matter;
  • you have kurds in Syria that Turkey wages the war against and they might be pushed deeper into Iran (due to collapsing IRGC), which becomes an issue for Turkey;
  • you have azerbaijani (province) who literally fought against IRGC recently and also kinda hate Shah historically;
  • you have sunni group insurgency in Sistan and Baluchestan that is still ongoing (and that's without the mess in Pakistan/Balochistan)
  • you have issues in Afghanistan right now;
  • you have water crisis in Iran too;
So the risks of the fragmentation are high and the region still is unable to recover post Iraq collapse (due to many of the Iraqi officers founding ISIS later). Hell, even Syria post-Assad is not stable still. Imagine adding the collapse of Iran that essentially a wall against the Central Asia and South Asia.

Potentially they might be culled. Especially with the banking collapse in Iran. Some tigher leash for example. Maybe some scenario like Venezuela. Iran has a population of 90m+. Comparable to Turkey but more than Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia co.

I don't know what is going to happen but right now - especially after China and Russia abandoning Iran - it would be a chance to put Iran on a leash as a weakened country who is unable to project power in the region anymore but can serve as a buffer zone.
Click to expand...

Of course the current Khomeini regime won't give up power without a fight. The Iranian people will have to take it back by force, which is what they are trying to do.
The Shad is just a possibility. But of course, the Iranian people can choose something else. Maybe even a Presidential system. Or whatever fits their needs.
One advantage Iran has is that it is not as divided with ethnic tensions as Arab countries. So there is a good chance it won't devolve like Iraq did.
 
Braag said:
As someone whos parents are Iranian and I've visited the country a few times, I can say with confidence that the Iranian regime takes good care of their police officials and most likely also higher ranking military personnel.
My uncle used to be a cop in Iran, he retired 10+ years ago, but they essentially lived in a gated community and had a pretty nice house, they also got a lot of benefits which other Iranians didn't. I'd imagine it's so that if protests like these start, they wouldn't go against the regime so easily.
Funnily enough, my dad's family are quite wealthy there, there are doctors and architects among them so some of them lived in pretty fancy houses, but they absolutely hated Iranian regime.
Click to expand...
It is a common case in a lot of regimes like that. You keep military, police etc. kinda separated from the common populace and maintain their loyalty. We saw in Myanmar, Belarus etc. that without military support the revolution is not possible. Even the French revolution was not done just by the rioters alone. You either need local elites or the army to take your side, or have a proper infrastructure in place to take over.
 
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ChuckeRearmed said:
I guess what has happened is that countries did not believe that Trump would strike and then realized that he was not actually joking.
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One of the strangest side effects of global TDS is that literally everyone doesn't believe anything Trump says he'll do even though he has an increasingly endless track record of doing exactly what he says he will do

But it works in Trump's favor that significant portions of the entire world are completely terminally infected with TDS because he can just do things without caring about anybody's approval because he knows everything he says will be automatically opposed and everything he does will be automatically condemned. It gives him a great deal of freedom to basically be like "Fuck it they will hate me no matter what" and just do what he wants
 
Unknown Soldier said:
One of the strangest side effects of global TDS is that literally everyone doesn't believe anything Trump says he'll do even though he has an increasingly endless track record of doing exactly what he says he will do

But it works in Trump's favor that significant portions of the entire world are completely terminally infected with TDS because he can just do things without caring about anybody's approval because he knows everything he says will be automatically opposed and everything he does will be automatically condemned. It gives him a great deal of freedom to basically be like "Fuck it they will hate me no matter what" and just do what he wants
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Unless it's "attacking Greenland," then they are 100% sure he's "Hitler" and dead serious and they totes believe him.

Wild phenomenon, really.
 
DeepEnigma said:
Unless it's "attacking Greenland," then they are 100% sure he's "Hitler" and dead serious and they totes believe him.

Wild phenomenon, really.
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I think Bill O'Reilly or smb said that Trump has an uncanny ability to bring the worst out of the people.

And it is true. He is like the guy with that mirror, where it reveals a true nature of people. And not just people - whole countries and organizations. The worst qualities, all the hypocrisy, all the drawbacks and limits are exposed each time Trump is doing anything.
 
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DeepEnigma said:
Unless it's "attacking Greenland," then they are 100% sure he's "Hitler" and dead serious and they totes believe him.

Wild phenomenon, really.
Click to expand...

Waiting on him to take Poland, and then fight a prolonged ground war in Russia during winter. Only then will I buy into the Hitler talk.
 
ADiTAR said:
Jy8X2tRtmx24Yz36.png


Iranians still don't have internet, and the amount of bodies will never be known. This is just sad and weak.
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Instead of hanging them, they are just going to stay in jail until shot. Or just quietly shot outright.

No, I don't greatly respect any of that.
 
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Feels real bad looking at some of the victims of the latest quelling. Damn those people have it rough. The general muslim world already considers them deviant even though the majority are only muslim by name. Then you have the superpowers wanting to maintain the status quo of the regime. Very fend for themselves situation.

Seems like the only way for a regime change is through sheer bloody attrition.
 
efyu_lemonardo said:
He couldn't at least have come to some deal where actual human lives are saved? Maybe brought out of Iran even?
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Some of the lives were saved no? People that supposed to be executed, haven't been executed as of yet at least 🤷‍♂️
But you can't save them all. That's just reality.

Essentially, as the gulf monarchies were involved, some favors were traded for sure. It is like Venezuela - you cannot think that installing a different person as a president wii somehow lead to kumbaya. You have to deal with reality on the ground.
 
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ChuckeRearmed said:
Some of the lives were saved no? People that supposed to be executed, haven't been executed as of yet at least 🤷‍♂️
But you can't save them all. That's just reality.

Essentially, as the gulf monarchies were involved, some favors were traded for sure. It is like Venezuela - you cannot think that installing a different person as a president wii somehow lead to kumbaya. You have to deal with reality on the ground.
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I never expected this to lead to a swift regime change, and I've been saying that a plan is needed from the beginning of this thread.
I did hope for there to be a plan in place for a bolder and more clever operation, after the successful surgical one in Venezuela, but wasn't expecting the same effect, certainly not immediately.

This "thank you for not hanging the protestors" when at best they will never see the light of day again, is pathetic, however. And every country in the Middle East hosting terrorists will be emboldened by such a chicken shit message. I hope that when that happens, there will be a stronger response from the U.S. I hope a much better plan for that response is being prepared as we speak.
 
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