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Monitoring the situation in Iran

Brucey said:
aYefPI4HBt1peJQB.jpg
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Interesting. My arm chair analysis: Kharg is defenseless, final chance to surrender or at least agree to re-open Hormuz. The implied threat here is bombing Kharg oil infrastructure to set Iran's economy back decades... But I assume that is just misdirection as the next real step is boots on the ground to secure the Iranian side of Hormuz by force, and leave Kharg oil infrastructure intact for the 'new Regime' (however unlikely) to operate to rebuild Iran under US direction (ala Venezuela).
 
Vestal said:
the hell are you talking about? Did you even bother reading what you were responding to?
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Your myopic view of this is deeply concerning.

I'm not saying this war has been well thought-out beyond the initial attacks, but it needed to happen before theocratic Iran became a nuclear power.
 
Forsete said:
Iran will probably not surrender after a bombing campaign.

Ukraine hasn't.. The UK didn't... Nazi Germany never did.
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Depends on how motivated they are (and nationalistic). Ukraine and English people never hated their governments to the extend Iranians did recently (and how many of them were brutally killed by the government).

Germans thought that Russians would rape and kill them all.
 
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Bojji said:
Depends on how motivated they are (and nationalistic). Ukraine and English people never hated their governments to the extend Iranians did recently (and how many of them were brutally killed by the government).

Germans thought Russians would rape and kill them all.
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Correct.

I don't know the percentage which are regime loyal and how many aren't.
Western media makes it out to be many aren't loyal, but what are the real figures?

If most are die hard fanatics they will not surrender.

When looking at former occupied Europe, surprising many are still so called Soviet nostalgic to this day.. Which makes me think XX number of years of brain washing makes most of the Iranian population regime loyal. Then it is probably game over for the current strategy.
 
Biff said:
Interesting. My arm chair analysis: Kharg is defenseless, final chance to surrender or at least agree to re-open Hormuz. The implied threat here is bombing Kharg oil infrastructure to set Iran's economy back decades... But I assume that is just misdirection as the next real step is boots on the ground to secure the Iranian side of Hormuz by force, and leave Kharg oil infrastructure intact for the 'new Regime' (however unlikely) to operate to rebuild Iran under US direction (ala Venezuela).
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If we were to bomb the oil infrastructure it would take millions of barrels of production off the market. I hate to think what that would do to oil prices.
 
Tams said:
Your myopic view of this is deeply concerning.

I'm not saying this war has been well thought-out beyond the initial attacks, but it needed to happen before theocratic Iran became a nuclear power.
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I think you got your concerns wrong. You should be concerned by how myopic of a view this administration had of this engagement.

My problems with this engagement are because I am looking at the entire table and not just a corner of it.

Theocracies have no place in modern society. But we can't just carpet bomb one out of existence. You need boots on the ground and a cohesive regional strategy.
 
ADiTAR said:
Trump just announced that US has bombed military targets on Kharg island. Where 90% of Iran's oil is exported from.

This could all be about oil. First Venezuela, now Iran, next Cuba. Trump is securing US as the main oil controller in the world.

www.ynet.co.il

טראמפ בהודעה דרמטית: "הפצצנו באי הנפט של איראן, השמדנו כל מטרה צבאית"

"היהלום שבכתר" הותקף: לראשונה במלחמה, ארה"ב הפציצה את האי חארג' במפרץ הפרסי, שדרכו עוברים 90% מהנפט שטהרן מייצאת. "זו אחת ההפצצות הגדולות בהיסטוריה של המזרח התיכון", אמר טראמפ. "החלטתי לא למחוק את כל תשתיות הנפט באי, אבל אם איראן תסכל תנועה במצר הורמוז אשקול זאת מחדש"
www.ynet.co.il www.ynet.co.il
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Bingo! Talks about democracy, when the US itself is anything but, are frankly laughable.
 
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Forsete said:
Correct.

I don't know the percentage which are regime loyal and how many aren't.
Western media makes it out to be many aren't loyal, but what are the real figures?

If most are die hard fanatics they will not surrender.

When looking at former occupied Europe, surprising many are still so called Soviet nostalgic to this day.. Which makes me think XX number of years of brain washing makes most of the Iranian population regime loyal. Then it is probably game over for the current strategy.
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I mentioned this a few days ago but calls for boycotting elections happened twice just in 2024. First during their parliamentary elections and again when 'The Butcher of Tehran' died in a chopper crash in May.

www.bbc.com

Iran elections: Record low turnout in polls as hardliners win

Most reformists were barred from the elections, which saw a turnout of only 41% after boycott calls.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

Hardliners have won a majority of the seats in the parliamentary elections in Iran, which saw a record low turnout of 41% after calls for a boycott.
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At least 60 percent of the 61.5 million eligible voters abstained from voting on Friday, according to official figures. However, many believe the turnout was even lower than reported, possibly as low as 20 percent, suggesting that over 80 percent of voters boycotted the election.
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41% voter turnout according to official figures from the government itself. That suggests to me that the real turnout was even lower than that.
 
YCoCg said:
Cyberpunkd Cyberpunkd being permd over politics is a bit sad tbh, what's the point of the threadban feature if staff are going to perm you here, at least link to the posts otherwise it feels a bit reee
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He was defending attacks on ships from countries that have nothing to do with the issue. I'd say it was pretty warranted.

Blaming the US for Iran attacking people from other countries is just bizarre. Like they're just wild animals and not responsible for their own actions.
 
Brucey said:
It was the presence of US troops on the ground in Saudi Arabia and Somalia (invited in by their governments) that got Osama Bin Laden targeting the USA, not the Iraq war.:


"In 1988, after Soviet forces were defeated and withdrew from Afghanistan, bin Laden founded an organization called al Qaeda, or "the Base," to continue the cause of jihad (holy war) through violence and aggression.

Al Qaeda soon began raising money, setting up training camps, and providing military and intelligence instruction in such areas as Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Sudan. Under bin Laden's direction, al Qaeda started launching attacks and bombings in various nations to further its violent aims.

During this time, bin Laden was becoming increasingly hostile to the United States. In particular, he opposed the U.S. military presence in Saudi Arabia and Somalia and sought to drive our nation's personnel out of these areas by force.

After centering his operations in Sudan in the early 1990s, bin Laden began formulating plans to attack the West with an evolving, deadly new brand of jihad.

Bin Laden and other members of al Qaeda also began issuing fatwas—rulings on Islamic law—indicating that attacks on the U.S. and its citizens were both proper and necessary. Bin Laden later openly declared war on the United States."
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Just a small addition

This was during the Iraq invasion of Kuwait. OBL was alarmed by the prospect of non-Muslim "Crusaders" on Saudi soil which he believed was against Islamic law before Operation Desert Shield. He proposed mobilizing his network of his fighters to the Saudi royal family. He claimed he could prepare a substantial fighting force of mujahideen trained in Afghanistan along with Saudis volunteers. He got a meeting with the King Fadh and Saudi Defense Minister and when asked by the Defense MInister how do they plan on fighting against Saddam's 400K+ thousand professionally trained and recently battle harden troops and chemical weapons? OBL basically said he was going to fight with the faith of Allah. 😂

King Fahd:

el-risitas-juan-joya-borja.gif



Obviously the Saudi government viewed this offer as an unrealistic crackpot idea opting instead for a professional coalition led by the United States. And that set OBL down the path on attacking the US.
 
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EviLore said:
Strange how many Europeans now talk like the kind of guy Arnold would heroically blow up with a Harrier jet in True Lies.
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What do you think terrorism means, do you think it's just '' bad guys bomb something ''?
This is especially ironic too considering the US has been blowing up boats on international waters claiming they're drug boats with zero evidence and broke into North Korea and shot civilian fishers in a botched mission to bug a meeting.
 
Svalr93 said:
What do you think terrorism means, do you think it's just '' bad guys bomb something ''?
This is especially ironic too considering the US has been blowing up boats on international waters claiming they're drug boats with zero evidence and broke into North Korea and shot civilian fishers in a botched mission to bug a meeting.
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Buddy no legitimate fishing boat out there is running multiple massive outboard motors.
 
YCoCg said:
Cyberpunkd Cyberpunkd being permd over politics is a bit sad tbh, what's the point of the threadban feature if staff are going to perm you here, at least link to the posts otherwise it feels a bit reee
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Guy was pretty obtuse, in one ear out the other. When challenged on his absurdity vanishes. Half his post were asinine one liners. Dunning-Kruger Award Winner.
 
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Does anyone actually think that if Iran acquired nukes that they would ever actually use them? Of course more of these in the world is a bad thing but using them is just asking to be wiped off the planet.
 
Bojji said:
Germans thought that Russians would rape and kill them all.
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Why didn't they surrender to the Western Allies then? Russia has never had air superiority without which any war becomes a protracted one. But even that does not rule out the possibility of a guerrilla war if there is an occupation (Iraq, Afghanistan). It all depends entirely on motivation, which is demonstrated not by shouting "Allahu Akbar", but by concrete actions. It remains to be seen whether Khamenei's supporters will be willing to die for their leader (if there is a ground operation and an occupation).
 


Sidequest status update

Cuba should just become an insular territory of the US like Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands

The island is right off the coast of Florida and would be a valuable tourism and commercial shipping hub for everything from cruise ships to oil tankers
 
Unknown Soldier said:


Sidequest status update

Cuba should just become an insular territory of the US like Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands

The island is right off the coast of Florida and would be a valuable tourism and commercial shipping hub for everything from cruise ships to oil tankers
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They should negotiate for guarantees of infrastructure and essential services, job opportunities etc., but yes, would be mutually beneficial.
 
T-0800 said:
Does anyone actually think that if Iran acquired nukes that they would ever actually use them? Of course more of these in the world is a bad thing but using them is just asking to be wiped off the planet.
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Odds of some religious zealot wanting his 10,000 virgins having his hand close enough to the button seems significantly higher than 0.
 
DrFigs said:
I think Scott Jennings really is one of those "pretending to be retarded" guys. He's clearly just going for a clip here that plays well to the conservative audience. I think we all understand the concept of cause and effect. In the same way we can say poverty leads to gang violence without saying that gang violence is a good thing.
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Or how wearing a short skirt can lead to being raped?
 
T-0800 said:
Does anyone actually think that if Iran acquired nukes that they would ever actually use them? Of course more of these in the world is a bad thing but using them is just asking to be wiped off the planet.
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First strike? No. They would use it to blackmail the world and it would shield them from regime change and allow them to continue with funding their proxies and being a bleeding wart on the ass of that region.

It'll will be able to sustain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz with a nuclear tripwire where any intervention will be too costly.

It also means Saudi Arabia will obtain nuclear weapons.
 
Taking Kharg out of action would reduce the global oil supply by 1-2% (so not ideal in the circumstances, but not too significant if it gets lost compared to the strait being closed), but it would effectively end Iran's ability to export oil. Putting a gun to Iran's head and forcing them to decide between opening the strait or losing the ability to export oil themselves is a reasonable option.

The sticking point is China, which takes almost all of Iran's exports and would be mad if it actually lost them, but this does also mean there is an incentive for China to put pressure on Iran to choose opening the strait over losing Kharg.
 
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Ozriel said:
Iran was shipping missiles and ammunition to Russia to kill Ukrainians. This ends that
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Iran supplied drones for a while, but production was subsequently localized (thanks to China). North Korea supplies the missiles and ammunition, but I'm not sure if it's in significant quantities. Iran has not been a key supplier to Russia for a long time now.
 
Critical Hit said:
Iran supplied drones for a while, but production was subsequently localized (thanks to China). North Korea supplies the missiles and ammunition, but I'm not sure if it's in significant quantities. Iran has not been a key supplier to Russia for a long time now.
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You will notice I did not mention drones.

They've been giving missiles and ammunition to Russia, along with North Korea.
 
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