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Monitoring the situation in Iran


France Paris GIF


Some genius decided that Strava his run on the French aircraft carrier deck was a good idea...
 
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All these headlines signaling a "wind down" reads to me like the opposite is about to happen. They really are batshit insane if they try a ground invasion, even if it is just that small island.
There are too many rumours floatting around. A lot of options here and there, so various "sources" will give various answers. It is pretty clear that the operation in Iran is going to wind down - I mean there is no way to Iran to escalate further - just don't have resources anymore. So it will gradually wind down. No need to keep those many ships and resources there anymore and there is a small amount of targets left to bomb. Sure, Iran will continue launching things here and there but they have no capacity to increase anything and they will have to use more sophisticated tools in less amounts. The only question is the strait and the Kharg Island, but even those won't require bigger escalation - like all that original fleet of bombers and such. There is just no point anymore.

People of course will run around with articles about TACO or then claiming that some special forces operations (if they were to happen) are the escalation and such. The truth is that will be neither.


Imagine Iran hitting some holy site. Would be hilarious :messenger_tears_of_joy:

Only people who found it distasteful are "Koreans or CCP agents" according to all the Japanese X comments I've been reading*

*possible I'm seeing a Japanese right-wing echo chamber
Basically the japanese right wingers do not care, the japanese left wingers complain. That's all to it.


France Paris GIF


Some genius decided that Strava his run on the French aircraft carrier deck was a good idea...
Personally I wonder why people treat it like such a big deal. The aircraft does not the invisibilty shield in any case so if anybody wanted to find, they could do that relatively easily.
 
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*possible I'm seeing a Japanese right-wing echo chamber
Everyone is being shoved into an echo chamber. Internet algorithms have put people into one of two camps when it comes to politics, which is why most conversations erase a lot of nuance. I lean left of center, which is why I know I get fed way more left-wing stuff than right-wing whether I'm browsing on Youtube, reddit, or whatever else. So I actively seek out opposing viewpoints whether it be Drudge Report, Fox News, or whatever else because every news organization is framing their content to whatever agenda they have. It's impossible to stay truly informed if you're passively receiving your news.
 
Only people who found it distasteful are "Koreans or CCP agents" according to all the Japanese X comments I've been reading*

*possible I'm seeing a Japanese right-wing echo chamber
Japanese people don't care. On a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 being Assassin's Creed Shadows, it doesn't even register.
 
There are too many rumours floatting around. A lot of options here and there, so various "sources" will give various answers. It is pretty clear that the operation in Iran is going to wind down - I mean there is no way to Iran to escalate further - just don't have resources anymore. So it will gradually wind down. No need to keep those many ships and resources there anymore and there is a small amount of targets left to bomb. Sure, Iran will continue launching things here and there but they have no capacity to increase anything and they will have to use more sophisticated tools in less amounts. The only question is the strait and the Kharg Island, but even those won't require bigger escalation - like all that original fleet of bombers and such. There is just no point anymore.

People of course will run around with articles about TACO or then claiming that some special forces operations (if they were to happen) are the escalation and such. The truth is that will be neither.


Imagine Iran hitting some holy site. Would be hilarious :messenger_tears_of_joy:


Basically the japanese right wingers do not care, the japanese left wingers complain. That's all to it.


Personally I wonder why people treat it like such a big deal. The aircraft does not the invisibilty shield in any case so if anybody wanted to find, they could do that relatively easily.

Tracking the exact location of a carrier in the ocean is not an easy task.

Just trace a 250m length line on Google Earth, then zoom out and it will give you a broad idea.

One of the most difficult things is to pin point the exact location of carrier in the ocean in real time. Specially for a regional power like Iran.
 
Tracking the exact location of a carrier in the ocean is not an easy task.

Just trace a 250m length line on Google Earth, then zoom out and it will give you a broad idea.

One of the most difficult things is to pin point the exact location of carrier in the ocean in real time. Specially for a regional power like Iran.
They have the Russians providing targeting and Intel info. Only way they could have successfully struck a bunch of thaad radar trailers at various locations
 
Tracking the exact location of a carrier in the ocean is not an easy task.

Just trace a 250m length line on Google Earth, then zoom out and it will give you a broad idea.

One of the most difficult things is to pin point the exact location of carrier in the ocean in real time. Specially for a regional power like Iran.
The countries are perfectly able to track carriers if necessary. From third person views, from planes flying about. And that's just the observers - now imagine countries using satellites and stuff. Countries don't rely on Google Maps in any case (well the ones that have the military power).
 
The countries are perfectly able to track carriers if necessary. From third person views, from planes flying about. And that's just the observers - now imagine countries using satellites and stuff. Countries don't rely on Google Maps in any case (well the ones that have the military power).

The Google maps example is just to illustrate how much ground someone has to cover with sensors without Strava boy trying to impress the girls by shinning a spotlight on his "middle of the ocean" workout.

Third person/spotters would only be able to track a carrier only close to shore.

Planes are not even allowed to fly close to it without being intercepted, sppecially in a combat scenario. It would probably be intercepted before sensor range on even the escorts. (I've posted not so long ago what happens when you fly close to a navy ship)

Unless you have:
1. Eyes in the sky relaying real time data and information...
Like a surveillance satellite, a capacity that just a dozen of countries have and isn't something that you can glue on a fast target indefinitely.
(Planes are somewhat unreliable to this because it's too much ground to cover.)

2. To another kind vessel/vehicle capable to shadowing it in sensor range undetected (eg. a submarine)

You simply will not have REAL TIME (emphasis here) location on it with a target capacity.

An asshole running around the deck in real time and you can cut the entire first loop and point the responsible for the second loop to a "semi" exact location.

It's a risk too big for such an important asset.

Ps. This is why it's so hard for land based ballistic missile to target a moving combat ship. It simply hard to know where to shoot at.
 
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As countries hosting bases involved in attacking Iran, they would be fully in their rights to attack those bases.
America may pretend otherwise but without the bases in Europe for ships and planes no large scale attack on Iran would be possible. The carriers have not enough firepower to do it on their own.

If Russian bombers flying from Cuba bombed the US you'd consider Cuba to also be the attacker and not an innocent bystander.
 
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Well according to Europe it is not their war, so if they hit by the rocket they can always blame Russia to continue pretending.
In terms of damage to Europe the economic damage from the strait closing is worse than being hit by a few gonzo rockets. And Europe is not even the worst off here. Overall countries in Europe will see this as a war that profoundly affects them but they will see the country mainly attacking them and their interests as being the USA for not planning this out and keeping the strait open.
 
Here in Italy, we are fucked: 2,5€ per Liter... taxes on Fuel are between 50/70%....we had enough of Trump on his First term, but this time in Insane level like Homelander(Berlusconi is an amateur in comparison on what he did for the country) , we want Joe Biden or another democratic president....
 
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They would have to be retarded to think this, so maybe.
Certainly nobody in America could be bothered to explain why they are wrong in ways that make sense to them. They will just send Vance over again to threaten them with biblical disasters if they step out of line.
 
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We all need more energy production in the West. The net zero degrowth movement only made us weaker and more dependent on enemy powers.
 
Certainly nobody in America could be bothered to explain why they are wrong in ways that make sense to them. They will just send Vance over again to threaten them with biblical disasters if they step out of line.
If they need something as simple as this explained to them they are beyond hope.
 
We all need more energy production in the West. The net zero degrowth movement only made us weaker and more dependent on enemy powers.
Trump keeps cancelling wind energy projects in this country unfortunately. It is so weird how anti-energy production he is. One of the first things he did when he took office was cancelling leases for wind energy projects. And recently he's been trying to stop offshore windfarms in the northeast right now. One reason he's against them, among others, is because they "drive whales crazy". Or maybe he's beholden to fossil fuel companies. idk.
 
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Trump keeps cancelling wind energy projects in this country unfortunately. It is so weird how anti-energy production he is. One of the first things he did when he took office was cancelling leases for wind energy projects. And recently he's been trying to stop offshore windfarms in the northeast right now. One reason he's against them, among others, is because they "drive whales crazy". Or maybe he's beholden to fossil fuel companies. idk.
Wind is unfortunately not a great energy source. Low output, highly variable, kills millions of birds, makes areas ugly.

I'm a proponent of residential solar where viable, and nuclear.
 
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Solar panels in a desert is a good idea as well
Absolutely. Solar panels in general now are cheap and efficient. China is deploying them in huge quantities.

Still need a reliable baseline power output via nuclear or fossil fuels, but solar can take stress off the grid especially during high AC usage periods.
 
Nuclear energy would be great. Just look at oil right now. blocking one strait in the middle east can apparently double the world price of oil? this is not ideal for national security.
 
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