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Monitoring the situation in Iran


France Paris GIF


Some genius decided that Strava his run on the French aircraft carrier deck was a good idea...
 
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All these headlines signaling a "wind down" reads to me like the opposite is about to happen. They really are batshit insane if they try a ground invasion, even if it is just that small island.
There are too many rumours floatting around. A lot of options here and there, so various "sources" will give various answers. It is pretty clear that the operation in Iran is going to wind down - I mean there is no way to Iran to escalate further - just don't have resources anymore. So it will gradually wind down. No need to keep those many ships and resources there anymore and there is a small amount of targets left to bomb. Sure, Iran will continue launching things here and there but they have no capacity to increase anything and they will have to use more sophisticated tools in less amounts. The only question is the strait and the Kharg Island, but even those won't require bigger escalation - like all that original fleet of bombers and such. There is just no point anymore.

People of course will run around with articles about TACO or then claiming that some special forces operations (if they were to happen) are the escalation and such. The truth is that will be neither.


Imagine Iran hitting some holy site. Would be hilarious :messenger_tears_of_joy:

Only people who found it distasteful are "Koreans or CCP agents" according to all the Japanese X comments I've been reading*

*possible I'm seeing a Japanese right-wing echo chamber
Basically the japanese right wingers do not care, the japanese left wingers complain. That's all to it.


France Paris GIF


Some genius decided that Strava his run on the French aircraft carrier deck was a good idea...
Personally I wonder why people treat it like such a big deal. The aircraft does not the invisibilty shield in any case so if anybody wanted to find, they could do that relatively easily.
 
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*possible I'm seeing a Japanese right-wing echo chamber
Everyone is being shoved into an echo chamber. Internet algorithms have put people into one of two camps when it comes to politics, which is why most conversations erase a lot of nuance. I lean left of center, which is why I know I get fed way more left-wing stuff than right-wing whether I'm browsing on Youtube, reddit, or whatever else. So I actively seek out opposing viewpoints whether it be Drudge Report, Fox News, or whatever else because every news organization is framing their content to whatever agenda they have. It's impossible to stay truly informed if you're passively receiving your news.
 
Only people who found it distasteful are "Koreans or CCP agents" according to all the Japanese X comments I've been reading*

*possible I'm seeing a Japanese right-wing echo chamber
Japanese people don't care. On a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 being Assassin's Creed Shadows, it doesn't even register.
 
There are too many rumours floatting around. A lot of options here and there, so various "sources" will give various answers. It is pretty clear that the operation in Iran is going to wind down - I mean there is no way to Iran to escalate further - just don't have resources anymore. So it will gradually wind down. No need to keep those many ships and resources there anymore and there is a small amount of targets left to bomb. Sure, Iran will continue launching things here and there but they have no capacity to increase anything and they will have to use more sophisticated tools in less amounts. The only question is the strait and the Kharg Island, but even those won't require bigger escalation - like all that original fleet of bombers and such. There is just no point anymore.

People of course will run around with articles about TACO or then claiming that some special forces operations (if they were to happen) are the escalation and such. The truth is that will be neither.


Imagine Iran hitting some holy site. Would be hilarious :messenger_tears_of_joy:


Basically the japanese right wingers do not care, the japanese left wingers complain. That's all to it.


Personally I wonder why people treat it like such a big deal. The aircraft does not the invisibilty shield in any case so if anybody wanted to find, they could do that relatively easily.

Tracking the exact location of a carrier in the ocean is not an easy task.

Just trace a 250m length line on Google Earth, then zoom out and it will give you a broad idea.

One of the most difficult things is to pin point the exact location of carrier in the ocean in real time. Specially for a regional power like Iran.
 
Tracking the exact location of a carrier in the ocean is not an easy task.

Just trace a 250m length line on Google Earth, then zoom out and it will give you a broad idea.

One of the most difficult things is to pin point the exact location of carrier in the ocean in real time. Specially for a regional power like Iran.
They have the Russians providing targeting and Intel info. Only way they could have successfully struck a bunch of thaad radar trailers at various locations
 
Tracking the exact location of a carrier in the ocean is not an easy task.

Just trace a 250m length line on Google Earth, then zoom out and it will give you a broad idea.

One of the most difficult things is to pin point the exact location of carrier in the ocean in real time. Specially for a regional power like Iran.
The countries are perfectly able to track carriers if necessary. From third person views, from planes flying about. And that's just the observers - now imagine countries using satellites and stuff. Countries don't rely on Google Maps in any case (well the ones that have the military power).
 
The countries are perfectly able to track carriers if necessary. From third person views, from planes flying about. And that's just the observers - now imagine countries using satellites and stuff. Countries don't rely on Google Maps in any case (well the ones that have the military power).

The Google maps example is just to illustrate how much ground someone has to cover with sensors without Strava boy trying to impress the girls by shinning a spotlight on his "middle of the ocean" workout.

Third person/spotters would only be able to track a carrier only close to shore.

Planes are not even allowed to fly close to it without being intercepted, sppecially in a combat scenario. It would probably be intercepted before sensor range on even the escorts. (I've posted not so long ago what happens when you fly close to a navy ship)

Unless you have:
1. Eyes in the sky relaying real time data and information...
Like a surveillance satellite, a capacity that just a dozen of countries have and isn't something that you can glue on a fast target indefinitely.
(Planes are somewhat unreliable to this because it's too much ground to cover.)

2. To another kind vessel/vehicle capable to shadowing it in sensor range undetected (eg. a submarine)

You simply will not have REAL TIME (emphasis here) location on it with a target capacity.

An asshole running around the deck in real time and you can cut the entire first loop and point the responsible for the second loop to a "semi" exact location.

It's a risk too big for such an important asset.

Ps. This is why it's so hard for land based ballistic missile to target a moving combat ship. It simply hard to know where to shoot at.
 
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