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[Unknown?]

I suppose we see this differently. And I'm not saying America is Russia, I'm saying Trump wants it to be and is trying to get the ball rolling. Trump wants what Putin has. My comparison is not controversial.

Specifically referring to the change in documentation requirements which impact legal citizens and mail-in-vote dates - yes, this undermines US elections by deliberately making it harder, or impossible depending on implementation timelines, for a specific portion of the population to vote. The number of documented cases of non-citizens voting is pretty small, as best as I can see. Yet, Trump has said he believes the changes will guarantee the Republicans the midterms. Sounds like he's expecting a pretty big impact - one that doesn't reflect the size of the stated need for these changes. This should tell you he knows its going to impact legal citizens voting.

Based on the video evidence alone, trying to chalk up all of these killings as "mentally unwell people" is absurd at best, and frankly kind of gross at worst.

While I don't disagree, there's little to be done, because the US system assumed that no one person controls all of it. Looking back at several countries who have gone down this road, the conversation worth having now is around preventing consolidation of power. Trump is waving around Trump 2028 hats and "jokingly" says elections aren't even needed anymore. He's told his country what he plans to do. He told them before he was re-elected.

I know you're banned but this does NOT make voting more difficult for any legal citizen. If they can't vote due to this then they also cannot get sudafed at Walgreen's.

 

[Lucie Goosey]

President Trump is a very courageous individual, both personally and politically, as he has demonstrated many times over.

Yeah it's not funny anymore. Dude has the blood of children on his hands.

 

[Chittagong]

The U.S. 14 point framework presented to Iran:

• Full dismantlement of accumulated nuclear capabilities

• Binding commitment never to pursue nuclear weapons

• Zero enrichment permitted on Iranian soil

• All enriched material transferred to the IAEA on an accelerated timeline

• Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow to be decommissioned and destroyed

• Full transparency with the IAEA across all nuclear activities

• End of the proxy warfare doctrine

• Immediate halt to funding and arming regional proxies

• Strait of Hormuz guaranteed open as a free maritime corridor

• Missile program to face future limits on range and quantity

• Short range missiles restricted strictly to defensive use

• Full sanctions relief for Iran

• Support for a civilian nuclear project in Bushehr for electricity generation

• Removal of the snapback sanctions mechanism

That's a very good deal for Iran.

- Nukes would never happen anyway
- Get to keep missiles
- Proxy warfare is pointless if they make peace in Middle East
- Still get nuclear power
- Full sanctions relief is huge
- No mention of US raiding their natural resources
- No mention of regime change

Would be insane to pass

 

[EviLore]

That's a very good deal for Iran.

- Nukes would never happen anyway
- Get to keep missiles
- Proxy warfare is pointless if they make peace in Middle East
- Still get nuclear power
- Full sanctions relief is huge
- No mention of US raiding their natural resources
- No mention of regime change

Would be insane to pass

Yes.


This is the counter-proposal:

 

[Lord Panda]

Yes.


This is the counter-proposal:

Deluded fools.

It's disappointing, though not entirely surprising, that the US framework makes no mention of the Iranian people themselves - for example, the release of political prisoners or accountability for officials responsible for the killing of civilians.

 

[EviLore]

Deluded fools.

It's disappointing, though not entirely surprising, that the US framework makes no mention of the Iranian people themselves for example, the release of political prisoners or accountability for officials responsible for the killing of civilians.

Agreed. It would be a shame if there ended up being no improvement for the Iranian people at the end of all this.

 

[StueyDuck]

Yeah it's not funny anymore. Dude has the blood of children on his hands.

Im sure he personally shouted "strike the children" as he slammed his fist on the big red button that is labelled "Kill Kids" that no president before ever did and that the Iranian regime absolutely has never ever done.

Literally everyone is squeaky clean except trump of course

 

[rorepmE]

That's a very good deal for Iran.

- Nukes would never happen anyway
- Get to keep missiles
- Proxy warfare is pointless if they make peace in Middle East
- Still get nuclear power
- Full sanctions relief is huge
- No mention of US raiding their natural resources
- No mention of regime change

Would be insane to pass

They won't go for it. You have to understand the Shi'a vs Sunni is not just a religious friction but a political struggle between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shi'a Iran. Shi'a is about 10% of all muslims world wide. All their proxies are in countries with large Shi'a minorities for the purpose of distablizing and harassing security forces in those countries because they want to export their Islamic revolutionary ideas with the primary goal of security (for the regime) secondary goal is to defend Shi'a Islam as Tehran sees themselves as the vanguard of their branch.

The basically want to be the hegemon in the region and spread their influence because outside of Israel, there is no other power in the region (prior to the current war) that can match them. That's why they want the US out of the region to change the balance of power in their favor so the gulf states will be at their mercy. If we leave, the petrodollar is going to be done-zo because the primary reason it exists is oil-for-security.

 

[Ozriel]

Iran's demands essentially mean that there's no feasible end to the war anytime soon, as it will take ages to land on a middle ground.
The Iranians will declare victory as soon as Trump pulls out, and you can bet every other Iranian proxy will follow a similar path of maximizing ballistic missile production.

TBH, this incompetence started from both the Biden administration and the Trump admin. Both seemed to have learnt nothing from the Ukraine war. Production of Patriot missile interceptors should have been ramped up to insane levels since 2024, and indeed the Pentagon should have invested more in missile and drone interception research.

If they're this unprepared for combat with an adversary with significant missile capability, how do we know Hegseth is ready for a war in an FPV drone era?

 

[MisterFalcon]

If they're this unprepared for combat with an adversary with significant missile capability, how do we know Hegseth is ready for a war in an FPV drone era?

Only one way to find out and the test subjects are currently being flown to the deployment area. Every attack by a drone on an American soldier invading Iran will be labeled terrorism and after a few days the nuke threats will come out.

 

[winjer]

Yes.


This is the counter-proposal:

This could be a strategy that is similar to what Russia uses for it's negotiations and they have been doing it for centuries, because it works.
First, they start by making outrageous demands, along side with the things they actually want. They know the other side will denied them, so them they publicly claim the other side does not want to negotiate and is trying to sabotage talks.
As negotiations advance, they wave off the outrageous demands, pretending they are making real concessions. But trying to portray it as if they are negotiating in good faith, when they are not.
In the end, they get exactly what they wanted from the start, forcing the other side to move their demands into a worst position.

You can bet Iran will soon start saying that the USA doesn't want peace, because it refused to negotiate with Iran.
When in reality, Iran just made a bunch of unjustifiable demands that could not be accepted.

 

[MisterFalcon]

As long as the people in Trump's inner circle continue making billions with insider trading the game of talks/bombings/pauses/talks/threats/escalation/de-escalation/talks/repeat will go on.

 

[Jaybe]

 

[Mr1999]

I think as long as they get to keep hezbollah, this things just going to continue for Israel and Lebanon. At this point Iran has no say in any of this. Its why I said you either jump with two feet on this matter or you dont. We are not looking to rehabilitate the same regime believing they will change, backing out now will just make them more determined. Its like those movies where you think the monster is for sure dead, only for it to.come back at the last second.

 

[Romulus]

At this point, I say give them another 2 months of bombing until they're left with absolutely nothing and then renegotiate.

The US has the biggest air force and complete air dominance and can simply choose when and where to attack. Let's just bring them to absolute zero on the military front.

Not sure I would have started this war but we're here.

 

[AJUMP23]

Iran should take that deal. But I am biased.

 

[RCX]

They've gone from "no negotiations at all, ever!" to "we can talk but here's some ridiculous demands" in the space of about 3 days.

Give it until the end of the week and they'll all be at the table. Seems like Irans biggest problem is how fractured its power structure has become. Every politician, General and janitor suddenly seems to think they're in charge. Whoever the US is actually talking to needs to get as many of these factions under control as possible if they hope to avoid the country splintering towards a civil war. This is getting more likely every day given their economic and inflationary issues are only ballooning as more and more of their income is spent on holding off the Americans (and pretty soon most of their neighbors)

 

[StabbyStabStabStabStab]

They've gone from "no negotiations at all, ever!" to "we can talk but here's some ridiculous demands" in the space of about 3 days.

Give it until the end of the week and they'll all be at the table. Seems like Irans biggest problem is how fractured its power structure has become. Every politician, General and janitor suddenly seems to think they're in charge. Whoever the US is actually talking to needs to get as many of these factions under control as possible if they hope to avoid the country splintering towards a civil war. This is getting more likely every day given their economic and inflationary issues are only ballooning as more and more of their income is spent on holding off the Americans (and pretty soon most of their neighbors)

Iranian terms (i.e. reparations and withdrawal from the ME) to end the war were put out there a while ago (certainly before DT's 15-point plan) - I don't think they're a result of any negotiations taking place. Hopefully they do sit down at the table of course, however it does seem a little fanciful as of right now, and certainly a loooong way off before any notion of finding middle ground is found.

 

[Jaybe]

Do we think the added troops being sent will be used to:

1. Secure the strait
2. Take over Kharg island
3. Extract enriched uranium
4. Simply be leveraged as a threat to help negotiating position

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

USA should continue bombing Iran until Iran realizes that they are not the party who can ask for anything at this point

The only "shield" that Iran has is that nobody wants for them to fall apart completely. That's all. Plus Turkey is a bit afraid that they will be next so they are trying to prop up Iran while they can.

Do we think the added troops being sent will be used to:

1. Secure the strait
2. Take over Kharg island
3. Extract enriched uranium
4. Simply be leveraged as a threat to help negotiating position

There is a bunch of scenarios that can be at play. With the Kharg Island - and those three former UAE islands too - the main challenge is the defense from potential iranian attacks on the island. How to protect the troops there? They strait itself - again the defense is the main challenge, because they can obliterate the coast line and take over too. Enriched uranium case is tough, because it is underground so IRGC might decide to collapse it when american troops are there and such.

 

[Jaybe]

Commoners in Iran seem to be worried about Mojtaba Khamenei and some have even called him "the cardboard ayatollah"

Iran Supreme Leader dead or alive: Where is Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new Supreme Leader? Even the CIA and Mossad are unable to find him - The Economic Times

Iran Supreme Leader: Both U.S. intelligence and Israeli officials are reportedly equally surprised as they are trying to gather accurate inputs about current whereabouts of Mojtaba Khamenei.

m.economictimes.com

 

[Tarkus]

Do we think the added troops being sent will be used to:

1. Secure the strait
2. Take over Kharg island
3. Extract enriched uranium
4. Simply be leveraged as a threat to help negotiating position

I think all of the above in staged operations.

 

[daffyduck]

I though it was "Weekend at Ayatolla's".

 

[Tarkus]

I think all of the above in staged operations.

Or this could end up being an overwhelming type of op simultaneously. I do know that no one from the press or twitter knows the extent or plan of the US despite what's being reported and posted, respectively.

 

[Vestal]

Or this could end up being an overwhelming type of op simultaneously. I do know that no one from the press or twitter knows the extent or plan of the US despite what's being reported and posted, respectively.

There are limits given the geography of what you can do if you also intend to limit civilian casualties. At least as far as"overwhelming" Iran with boots on the ground.

Having said that, we should be able to take Kharg and/or "control of the strait". Holding either is an entire different affair though.

 

[TransTrender]

Yeah it's not funny anymore. Dude has the blood of children on his hands.

LMAO ITS BUSH II ALL OVER AGAIN!

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

There are limits given the geography of what you can do if you also intend to limit civilian casualties. At least as far as"overwhelming" Iran with boots on the ground.

Having said that, we should be able to take Kharg and/or "control of the strait". Holding either is an entire different affair though.

Yeah, holding them is the main challenge. The positions are very vulnerable.

 

[NT80]

Im sure he personally shouted "strike the children" as he slammed his fist on the big red button that is labelled "Kill Kids" that no president before ever did and that the Iranian regime absolutely has never ever done.

Literally everyone is squeaky clean except trump of course

Trump was the one rating the war a 15/10 and claiming not to know anything about the school bombing while implying the Iranians themselves did it without evidence.

 

[poppabk]

I know you're banned but this does NOT make voting more difficult for any legal citizen. If they can't vote due to this then they also cannot get sudafed at Walgreen's.

You need your birth certificate to get Sudafed at your Walgreens - maybe switch to CVS?

 

[Ecotic]

Do we think the added troops being sent will be used to:

1. Secure the strait
2. Take over Kharg island
3. Extract enriched uranium
4. Simply be leveraged as a threat to help negotiating position

I think it's leverage. Every military analysis I've read on taking Kharg Island or the shoreline in the Strait says it's a bad idea with low odds. Our troops numbers would be too low, too close to the enemy, and not easily supported and supplied. Putting our billion dollar navy ships into the Persian Gulf or the Strait of Hormuz is basically putting them into a narrow killbox. At the moment, most of the navy is hanging back in the open Arabian Sea.

Extracting the uranium is even worse. We'd be dropping troops into the middle of the country with heavy mining equipment and it could take hours, or days. Successful raids have special ops landing, completing the mission, and leaving before the enemy can respond. Plus we have no element of surprise, Iran knows we could be coming.

So I think it has to be leverage.

 

[Tarkus]

Trump was the one rating the war a 15/10 and claiming not to know anything about the school bombing while implying the Iranians themselves did it without evidence.

Then you have to question a placing IRGC command center beside a girl's school. Through that lens, they kinda did do it.

 

[EviLore]

Article:

Iranian soldiers in underground trenches on Kharg Island are posting photos and stating that they are ready to repel a possible US landing-

Judging by the photo, the Iranians have already received FPV kamikaze drones produced by the Chinese company Shenzhen Beizao Innovation Technology Co., Ltd. This model is equipped with a 5.8 GHz frequency video transmission antenna.

The only threat that the US would face in a land operation - unlike Iranian standard conventional weapons - is precisely the large-scale use of medium-range FPV kamikaze drones within asymmetric warfare and ambushes carried out by operators… Otherwise, Iran does not have armored vehicles on land, nor can it offer organized resistance within the framework of standard infantry tactics against the US elite amphibious and land forces - especially considering they will have 100% air support…

Thus, if the US suffers losses in land clashes during the capture of the Strait of Hormuz islands, the vast majority will be caused by ambushes carried out by Iranian FPV drones… It is likely that Russian operators experienced in the Ukraine war are already on site.

No armor or air support. Basically out in the open. ~250 IRGC and 500-1000 regular soldiers and some Chinese drones. Good luck.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

I think it's leverage. Every military analysis I've read on taking Kharg Island or the shoreline in the Strait says it's a bad idea with low odds. Our troops numbers would be too low, too close to the enemy, and not easily supported and supplied. Putting our billion dollar navy ships into the Persian Gulf or the Strait of Hormuz is basically putting them into a narrow killbox. At the moment, most of the navy is hanging back in the open Arabian Sea.

Extracting the uranium is even worse. We'd be dropping troops into the middle of the country with heavy mining equipment and it could take hours, or days. Successful raids have special ops landing, completing the mission, and leaving before the enemy can respond. Plus we have no element of surprise, Iran knows we could be coming.

So I think it has to be leverage.

And every military analysis was wrong about USA having an air domination within a couple of days in Iran...

 

[Hyet]

USA should continue bombing Iran until Iran realizes that they are not the party who can ask for anything at this point

There are like 200 ways you can drop mines into the strait. Bombing everything all the time and someone at some point may do it. And then the energy market is over.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

There are like 200 ways you can drop mines into the strait. Bombing everything all the time and someone at some point may do it. And then the energy market is over.

Price capping WTI is enough to solve the issue with the energy market for americans. For others...Well, some of them said that it was not their problem so...USA does not rely on the strait of Hormuz much and the arabs were able to switch to desert pipelines relatively fast too. LNG situation for the South Asia is a bit dire though, but USA itself will be fine in any case.

 

[NT80]

Then you have to question a placing IRGC command center beside a girl's school. Through that lens, they kinda did do it.

That part of the site was converted into a school and according to locals the IRGC were no longer operating from that centre. It was brought up before that there are schools on Military bases in the US too. Saying 15/10 effort I don't know anything and implying someone else did it with no evidence is a bit insensitive.

 

[Hyet]

Price capping WTI is enough to solve the issue with the energy market for americans. For others...Well, some of them said that it was not their problem so...USA does not rely on the strait of Hormuz much and the arabs were able to switch to desert pipelines relatively fast too. LNG situation for the South Asia is a bit dire though, but USA itself will be fine in any case.

I was taking about the global energy market, not just the USA.

 

[Tarkus]

That part of the site was converted into a school and according to locals the IRGC were no longer operating from that centre. It was brought up before that there are schools on Military bases in the US too. Saying 15/10 effort I don't know anything and implying someone else did it with no evidence is a bit insensitive.

Did that evidence come from twitter or bluesky?

 

[Vestal]

USA should continue bombing Iran until Iran realizes that they are not the party who can ask for anything at this point

They have said they are running out of targets. The cost/benefit ratio is probably reaching/reached a tipping point.

Did that evidence come from twitter or bluesky?

Pretty sure the DOD(DOW???) acknowledged it as well.

 

[buttnuggett]

Article:

Iranian soldiers in underground trenches on Kharg Island are posting photos and stating that they are ready to repel a possible US landing-

Judging by the photo, the Iranians have already received FPV kamikaze drones produced by the Chinese company Shenzhen Beizao Innovation Technology Co., Ltd. This model is equipped with a 5.8 GHz frequency video transmission antenna.

The only threat that the US would face in a land operation - unlike Iranian standard conventional weapons - is precisely the large-scale use of medium-range FPV kamikaze drones within asymmetric warfare and ambushes carried out by operators… Otherwise, Iran does not have armored vehicles on land, nor can it offer organized resistance within the framework of standard infantry tactics against the US elite amphibious and land forces - especially considering they will have 100% air support…

Thus, if the US suffers losses in land clashes during the capture of the Strait of Hormuz islands, the vast majority will be caused by ambushes carried out by Iranian FPV drones… It is likely that Russian operators experienced in the Ukraine war are already on site.

No armor or air support. Basically out in the open. ~250 IRGC and 500-1000 regular soldiers and some Chinese drones. Good luck.

They're about to enriched of our culture. Our culture will be the music of BRRRRRRTTTT.

 

[StueyDuck]

Trump was the one rating the war a 15/10 and claiming not to know anything about the school bombing while implying the Iranians themselves did it without evidence.

One does not equal the other.

 

[Ecotic]

And every military analysis was wrong about USA having an air domination within a couple of days in Iran...

I can't say I heard anything about that. The U.S. and Israeli air force quickly dominating the air space over Iran sounds like the least surprising thing an analyst could have imagined.

 

[buttnuggett]

I can't say I heard anything about that. The U.S. and Israeli air force quickly dominating the air space over Iran sounds like the least surprising thing an analyst could have imagined.

When we have B-52's in the air, we have air dominance. Of course, that doesn't address the elephant in the room of the lack of ground forces.

 

[Biff]

Random aside but this thread is what I've been missing from GAF for so many years. I'm once again getting breaking news that is actually valuable before I see it on WSJ or CNN or any other mainstream source.

I find Twitter nearly impossible to use by myself with so many AI accounts to parse through. Having actual humans with brains here helping to cut through the noise and share tidbits that are actually informative is awesome.

Thank you to everyone posting what you find. Especially EviLore who has been doing a lot of heavy lifting sharing info in this thread. It is noticed and appreciated!!!

 

[adamsapple]

Operation Epic Fury is 'wrapping up' soon.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

They have said they are running out of targets. The cost/benefit ratio is probably reaching/reached a tipping point.

Well that's why they switched to A10 and dumb gravity bombs. Those are quite cheap and they have plenty in stock.

I can't say I heard anything about that. The U.S. and Israeli air force quickly dominating the air space over Iran sounds like the least surprising thing an analyst could have imagined.

Except it was surprising coming from a regional power. Just like the 12-day war, Iran's defenses folded fast. Keep in mind that Iran is (was) considered like 15th most powerful army in the world. Granted Russia was considered the second so...The main issue with Iran is their landscape really.

Operation Epic Fury is 'wrapping up' soon.

People read into "wrapping up" too much. Wrapping up does not mean that USA will just remove its presence in the region on stop bombing.

 

[longrainwater]

I find Twitter nearly impossible to use by myself with so many AI accounts to parse through. Having actual humans with brains here helping to cut through the noise and share tidbits that are actually informative is awesome.

My experience is the same, pretty much everything I see on Twitter looks like it was written by AI these days. And if any humans are still there, bot swarms are deciding what gets liked/retweeted and reaches people's feeds.

 

[ADiTAR]

Their demands should make the US stop this charade and resume bombing the crap out of them.

 

[adamsapple]

Their demands should make the US stop this charade and resume bombing the crap out of them.

The demands are always high on the first go so they can negotiate something in the middle.

 

[jason10mm]

The demands are always high on the first go so they can negotiate something in the middle.

I would have demanded that Iran adhere to the same diversity and inclusion standards as the Oscar's. Then when they VEHEMENTLY refuse it woyld show all the purple hairs that "Iran is NOT your friend!".