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Monitoring the situation in Iran

Heimdall_Xtreme said:
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I'm still thinking that this is more likely than Kharg's island invasion



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Shit begin to hit the fan again
 
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DonkeyPunchJr said:
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I don't even understand what this means anymore. Iran is letting Chinese, Indian, and Pakistani ships pass the Strait if they pay the $2 million security fee.

I guess they may as well also claim these as a gift to America to try and double-side the trade? lmao

Trump even talking about this shit looks retarded. He really should stop mentioning it. I understand it's probably a diversion to make it look like relations are getting better before landing troops, but it just completely destroys his credibility in the meantime.
 
My take is US/Israeli strategists probably expected everything Iran has done, but disastrously miscalculated NATO, EU, and Middle Eastern cowardice and Trump Derangement Syndrome. I strongly suspect US/Israel expected large scale deployments (if only symbolic bluster, glorified training drills) from EU and ME countries in response to Iran targeting civilian hotels/airports/water plants and terrorizing/closing the strait. The hope being a world alliance likely would have forced Iran into quick negotiations, deep concessions, and increased odds an internal uprising toppling the regime. Instead US "allies" publicly banned the US from using EU military bases and sent strongly worded letters condemning US/Israel, defacto supporting Iran and emboldening them to drag the conflict out.
 
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Targeting a water desalination plant is quite the escalation by Iran

vjiJAcJIOUCyzhvH.jpeg
 
Haint said:
My take is US/Israeli strategists probably expected everything Iran has done, but disastrously miscalculated NATO, EU, and Middle Eastern cowardice and Trump Derangement Syndrome. I strongly suspect US/Israel expected large scale deployments (if only symbolic bluster, glorified training drills) from EU and ME countries in response to Iran targeting civilian hotels/airports/water plants and terrorizing/closing the strait. The hope being a world alliance likely would have forced Iran into quick negotiations, deep concessions, and increased odds an internal uprising toppling the regime. Instead US "allies" sent strongly worded letters condemning US/Israel defacto supporting Iran and emboldening them.
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Trump burns all bridges. Then wonders why he has no international support.
 
OLED_Gamer said:
Trump burns all bridges. Then wonders why he has no international support.
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Textbook definition of cutting off the nose to spite the face. Iranian nukes pose a much more realistic threat to the EU as they're much closer and easier targets within range of Iranian ballistics. They're also simultaneously much more impacted by rising oil prices from terroristic threats in the strait. A modernized non-authoritarian Iran would be hugely beneficial for EU and everyone pretty much accepts they're secretly thanking Trump.
 
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11yr old boy soldier? 5th grader... IRGC should really be ashamed, and abolished. It's not about who attacked who or whatnot - you don't put children in the frontline, period.
 
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Haint said:
Textbook definition of cutting off the nose to spite the face. Iranian nukes pose a much more realistic threat to the EU as they're much closer and easier targets within range of Iranian ballistics. They're also simultaneously much more impacted by rising oil prices from terroristic threats in the strait. A modernized non-authoritarian Iran would be hugely beneficial for EU and everyone pretty much accepts they're secretly thanking Trump.
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"Europe must defend itself" - Trump
"I'm taking Greenland, by force if needed" - Trump
"I'm attacking Iran to protect Europe" - Trump
"The Strait of Hormuz will be closed for months to counter the threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz" - Trump
"Everyone is secretly thanking me" - Trump
 
OLED_Gamer said:
Trump burns all bridges. Then wonders why he has no international support.
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Shouldn't we expect better from our leaders than TDS?

I thought the adults were in the room.

And that's not taking into account that removing Iran as a threat to all our economies should be a top priority. Diplomacy didn't work for decades and now that inaction is bearing bitter fruit.
 
Haint said:
Textbook definition of cutting off the nose to spite the face. Iranian nukes pose a much more realistic threat to the EU as they're much closer and easier targets within range of Iranian ballistics. They're also simultaneously much more impacted by rising oil prices from terroristic threats in the strait. A modernized non-authoritarian Iran would be hugely beneficial for EU and everyone pretty much accepts they're secretly thanking Trump.
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I m European , and no, we are NOT THANKING Trump: this admin is INSANE and we had enough, you(american) replaced Joe Biden for one with 7 bankruptcy LMAO
 
MisterFalcon said:
"Europe must defend itself" - Trump
"I'm taking Greenland, by force if needed" - Trump
"I'm attacking Iran to protect Europe" - Trump
"The Strait of Hormuz will be closed for months to counter the threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz" - Trump
"Everyone is secretly thanking me" - Trump
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How exactly does a bunch of Drump Bozo quotes change the fact that an Iran without nukes and greatly diminished missile capabilities is vastly preferred by the EU, or that a non-authoritarian unsanctioned Iran government would be massively beneficial for EU oil/energy supply/prices? You can simultaneously hate Trump while also admitting this particular antic would be huge boon and net positive for the EU, and would be considerably in their best interest to support him.

Vr46 said:
I m European , and no, we are NOT THANKING Trump: this admin is INSANE and we had enough, you(american) replaced Joe Biden for one with 7 bankruptcy LMAO
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You realize that a more modern/democratic unsanctioned Iran would lower your energy prices tremendously, in addition to thwarting a group of religious zealots having nukes and long range missiles trained on your major metros who believe their reward for turning you into soup is 1000 virgins? And FWIW I was referring to your leaders who are briefed on the threats and understand the geopolitical implications of it.
 
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Haint said:
How exactly does a bunch of Drump Bozo quotes change the fact that an Iran without nukes and greatly diminished missile capabilities is vastly preferred by the EU, or that a non-authoritarian unsanctioned Iran government would be massively beneficial for EU oil/energy prices? You can simultaneously hate Trump while also admitting this particular antic would be huge boon and net positive for the EU, and would be considerably in their best interest to to support him.



You realize that a more modern/democratic unsanctioned Iran would lower your energy prices tremendously, in addition to thwarting a group of religious zealots having nukes and long range missiles trained on your major metros who believe their reward for turning you into soup is 1000 virgins?
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do you realize that usa is not changing regime without troops on the ground? why would eu/nato would get into this mess knowing that?
 
People here taking a "Europe is at fault" position are completely delusional—and I can only reiterate that I hold most Western European leaders in contempt, but that's beside the point. Apart from all the verbal abuse and threats aimed at NATO and the EU, the US has already cut off most modes of communication with its allies. This was widely reported in Germany, and you can read about it in English media, too:

https://www.thetimes.com/world/euro...ith-us-military-cut-off-by-pentagon-p2xc7w9td

The Trump admin boasts about how great the US is and that it doesn't need all those ungrateful allies. It might even take their territory if it suits them. And those clowns serving under him don't even talk to their counterparts in any of the multitude of channels established over the course of the past 80 years anymore. And now suddenly it's Europe that needs to step up for a war the US started? 🤡
 
Darius87 said:
do you realize that usa is not changing regime without troops on the ground? why would eu/nato would get into this mess knowing that?
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As I said earlier, had the EU and ME allies even just feigned unified overwhelming offensive support with the US/Israel and launched large scale deployment quasi-training drills as a show of force and bluster after Iran went batshit terrorist, there's a strong possibility they would have quickly negotiated an end to the conflict with deep concessions, would have increased the odds of the slightly less radical and slightly more sensible leadership attempting a coup, or spurned more widespread protests among the populous.

You're free to disagree with that assessment, but what we can be 100% certain of is that the EU's staunch refusal to allow the US to use certain airbases, and strongly worded letters of condemnation for the "illegal" war did nothing but embolden Iran and guarantee it dragged the conflict out even longer. Again you can call Drump a dumbass for starting it in the first place, but the EU very obviously and intentionally making it worse is next level retardation of the highest order, quadruplely so when the US/Israel "winning" would massively benefit the EU.
 
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Haint said:
As I said earlier, had the EU and ME allies even just feigned unified overwhelming offensive support with the US/Israel and launched large scale deployment quasi-training drills as a show of force and bluster after Iran went batshit terrorist, there's a strong possibility Iran would have quickly negotiated an end to the conflict with deep concessions, would have increased the odds of the slightly less radical and slightly more sensible leadership attempting a coup, or spurned more widespread protests with the populous.
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That's a huge what-if to shift the responsibility away from the party that initated the conflict. And again, this goes exactly counter to the US stance Europe should primarily protect itself while the US shifts its attention to Asia.

But then again, the US position makes little sense. Like how Europe will be taken over by islam in a few years but would also get nuked by Iran the second they got nukes.
 
Hypnotoad said:
People here taking a "Europe is at fault" position are completely delusional—and I can only reiterate that I hold most Western European leaders in contempt, but that's beside the point. Apart from all the verbal abuse and threats aimed at NATO and the EU, the US has already cut off most modes of communication with its allies. This was widely reported in Germany, and you can read about it in English media, too:

https://www.thetimes.com/world/euro...ith-us-military-cut-off-by-pentagon-p2xc7w9td

The Trump admin boasts about how great the US is and that it doesn't need all those ungrateful allies. It might even take their territory if it suits them. And those clowns serving under him don't even talk to their counterparts in any of the multitude of channels established over the course of the past 80 years anymore. And now suddenly it's Europe that needs to step up for a war the US started? 🤡
Click to expand...

It does seem bizarre to me that the message is that the greatest nation on earth can do whatever its president decides is a good idea on a given day, that the army wins all the wars alone, that the armed forces are so mighty it makes all others look like toys and that America's opponents are already dead and crushed to dust.

...And yet the war continues.
 
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Haint said:
As I said earlier, had the EU and ME allies even just feigned unified overwhelming offensive support with the US/Israel and launched large scale deployment quasi-training drills as a show of force and bluster after Iran went batshit terrorist, there's a strong possibility they would have quickly negotiated an end to the conflict with deep concessions, would have increased the odds of the slightly less radical and slightly more sensible leadership attempting a coup, or spurned more widespread protests among the populous.
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if usa/israel can't achieve what you're talking about but suddenly eu/me would change things around?
 
Haint said:
As I said earlier, had the EU and ME allies even just feigned unified overwhelming support with the US/Israel and launched large scale deployment quasi-training drills as a show of force and bluster after Iran went batshit terrorist, there's a strong possibility Iran would have quickly negotiated an end to the conflict with deep concessions, would have increased the odds of the slightly less radical and slightly more sensible leadership attempting a coup, or spurned more widespread protests with the populous.
Click to expand...

To secure such support, you need an administration who can at least entertain the idea of communicating with allies and doing diplomacy beforehand, not ex post facto. But wait ... the US don't need that, they're Number One, so much stronger than all those ungrateful European countries. After all, it's might that makes right, and the US Army is the strongest in the world, that is what counts, according to the Secretary of WAR and those who echo him in this thread. Diplomacy and rules are for babies and those weak beta Eurocrats.
 
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Haint said:
As I said earlier, had the EU and ME allies even just feigned unified overwhelming offensive support with the US/Israel and launched large scale deployment quasi-training drills as a show of force and bluster after Iran went batshit terrorist, there's a strong possibility they would have quickly negotiated an end to the conflict with deep concessions, would have increased the odds of the slightly less radical and slightly more sensible leadership attempting a coup, or spurned more widespread protests among the populous.
Click to expand...

You do realize that this current USA administration did not consult any of it's allies, nor the EU, nor NATO, nor the UN, before they started this war.
There were no negotiations, nor plans to involve other countries. He went as far as to say the EU and NATO were too weak and didn't need them.
Only after Trump realized that Iran was going to resist and not fold immediately, did he start saying that the EU, China and Arab countries have to help out cleaning out his mess.
But the worst part is that Trump is so unrealiable, that most countries don't want to get involved because there is a good chance he will just abandon everyone as soon as they enter the fray. Just like he did with Ukraine.

Now compare to what the USA did, during the first Bush administration when Iraq was the biggest threat in the region.
After the Iraq invasion of Kuwait, the USA consulted with it's allies and with the UN. And because of that, got the approval of everyone, including other Arab countries and even Russia.
On top of that, the USA managed to get a coalition of 30 countries to help out with the war against Iraq.
This is an example of just how a competent USA administration, also from the Republican party, managed to get everyone to side with it. A stark contrast to the sheer incompetence of the Trump administration in dealing with it's allies and the rest of the world.
 
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Haint said:
How exactly does a bunch of Drump Bozo quotes change the fact that an Iran without nukes and greatly diminished missile capabilities is vastly preferred by the EU, or that a non-authoritarian unsanctioned Iran government would be massively beneficial for EU oil/energy supply/prices? You can simultaneously hate Trump while also admitting this particular antic would be huge boon and net positive for the EU, and would be considerably in their best interest to support him.
Click to expand...
The threat of an attack by Iran is far lower on the European list of priorities compared to an attack by Russia (with US approval or non-interference) or the US itself.
 
Hypnotoad said:
To secure such support, you need an administration who can at least entertain the idea of communicating with allies and doing diplomacy beforehand, not ex post facto. But wait ... the US don't need that, they're Number One, so much stronger than all those ungrateful European countries. After all, it's might that makes right, and the US Army is the strongest in the world, that is what counts, according to the Secretary of WAR and those who echo him in this thread. Diplomacy and rules are for babies and those weak beta Eurocrats.
Click to expand...

winjer said:
You do realize that this current USA administration did not consult any of it's allies, nor the EU, nor NATO, nor the UN, before they started this war.
There were no negotiations, nor plans to involve other countries. He went as far as to say the EU and NATO were too weak and didn't need them.
Only after Trump realized that Iran was going to resist and not fold immediately, did he start saying that the EU, China and Arab countries have to help out cleaning out his mess.
But the worst part is that Trump is so unrealiable, that most countries don't want to get involved because there is a good chance he will just abandon everyone as soon as they enter the fray. Just like he did with Ukraine.

Now compare to what the USA did, during the first Bush administration when Iraq was the biggest threat in the region.
After the Iraq invasion of Kuwait, the USA consulted with it's allies and with the UN. And because of that, got the approval of everyone, including other Arab countries and even Russia.
On top of that, the USA managed to get a coalition of 30 countries to help out with the war against Iraq.
This is an example of just how a competent USA administration, also from the Republican party, managed to get everyone to side with it. A stark contrast to the sheer incompetence of the Trump administration in dealing with it's allies and the rest of the world.
Click to expand...

He rightly understands he is hated by EU leadership and rightly did not trust them with the date, time, and locations of a surprise strike when everyone was convinced he was just bluffing and putting on a show as a bargaining/negotiation strategy. A strike which they obviously never would have agreed to in any capacity, so the only choice was do it and ask for support later. He disastrously miscalculated how suicidal the EU is though, and to what lengths they will go against their own interests, which it turns out, is defacto supporting a terrorist regime who can launch nukes at them and skyrocket their energy prices.

MisterFalcon said:
The threat of an attack by Iran is far lower on the European list of priorities compared to an attack by Russia (with US approval or non-interference) or the US itself.
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Even ignoring the hilarious levels of delusions required to believe the US would bomb EU or support a Russian invasion before a terrorist regime of religious fanatics might decide they want their 1000 virgins, how does shitting on his head against your own interests reduce the odds of this imaginary US/Russia invasion scenario?
 
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Haint said:
He rightly understands he is hated by EU leadership and rightly did not trust them with the date, time, and locations of a surprise strike when everyone was convinced he was just bluffing and putting on a show as a bargaining/negotiation strategy. A strike which they obviously never would have agreed to in any capacity, so the only choice was do it and ask for support later. He disastrously miscalculated how suicidal the EU is though, and to what lengths they will go against their own interests.
Click to expand...

He spat on everyone's face, with insults, threats of invasion, tariffs and betrayal of the commitment to protect Ukraine. So it's not like everyone hates him for no reason.
FFS, the only country he didn't impose massive tariffs was Russia. And he praises Putin. Maybe he should ask Putin for help with invading Iran.
And it's Russia that has become the main beneficiary of this war, as oil price increases have given a significant boost to it's economy.
 
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Haint said:
My take is US/Israeli strategists probably expected everything Iran has done, but disastrously miscalculated NATO, EU, and Middle Eastern cowardice and Trump Derangement Syndrome. I strongly suspect US/Israel expected large scale deployments (if only symbolic bluster, glorified training drills) from EU and ME countries in response to Iran targeting civilian hotels/airports/water plants and terrorizing/closing the strait. The hope being a world alliance likely would have forced Iran into quick negotiations, deep concessions, and increased odds an internal uprising toppling the regime. Instead US "allies" publicly banned the US from using EU military bases and sent strongly worded letters condemning US/Israel defacto supporting Iran and emboldening them.
Click to expand...
I think it's less miscalculating and more testing... Everyone knows the big one that we are all worried is gonna happen is the US/China and it's important for the US to know who to rely on in that situation, and while i don't think this war was done purposely to test them, it definitely was one of the side outcomes they will be looking at and the EU, NATO, UN has absolutely failed miserably.

I forsee a stronger US and Middle East alliance going forward, as in UAE , SA, Qatar and obviously Israel (and maybe a potential South American alliance, seeing how things go) and a weaker EU relationship.

I still commend France for being there day one and protecting Civillians, especially with having family in the UAE, we all give france a good joke here n there, but they stepped up.
 
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Haint said:
He rightly understands he is hated by EU leadership and rightly did not trust them with the date, time, and locations of a surprise strike when everyone was convinced he was just bluffing and putting on a show as a bargaining/negotiation strategy. A strike which they obviously never would have agreed to in any capacity, so the only choice was do it and ask for support later. He disastrously miscalculated how suicidal the EU is though, and to what lengths they will go against their own interests, which it turns out, is defacto supporting a terrorist regime who can launch nukes at them and skyrocket their energy prices.
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whatever drugs you're on i suggest you get help before it's to late.
 
StueyDuck said:
I think it's less miscalculating and more testing... Everyone knows the big one that we are all worried is gonna happen is the US/China and it's important for the US to know who to rely on in that situation, and while i don't think this war was done purposely to test them, it definitely was one of the side outcomes they will be looking at and the EU, NATO, UN has absolutely failed miserably.

I forsee a stronger US and Middle East alliance going forward, as in UAE , SA, Qatar and obviously Israel (and maybe a potential South American alliance, seeing how things go) and a weaker EU relationship.

I still commend France for being there day one and protecting Civillians, especially with having family in the UAE, we all give france a good joke here n there, but they stepped up.
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France generally do step up to the plate in the end. They were also lucky this time as most of the ships had just come out of refit, especially in regards to the Charles de Gaulle.

Meanwhile, here in the UK we are: self-flagellating over the Empire; our political elites are pandering to our invaders who back Iran; spending all our money on the useless in society; and while both our aircraft carriers do happen to be operational almost none of our other ships are available to provide any escorts. Oh, and continuing to try and pay to give up key strategic territory (which is... now also being blocked by another country claiming it as well).
 
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Darius87 said:
whatever drugs you're on i suggest you get help before it's to late.
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While I agree with you that it was mostly just Trump being Trump, where in that was Haint Haint wrong?

Europe is adverse to any use of force. They'd rather release a sternly worded letter and be sanctimonious and patronising (or rather matronising) than do anything. Sure, an enormous amount of aid has been sent to Ukraine, but for most of Europe it took a while to get going and the US' contribution is still larger despite Russia's invasion not being any immediate concern for them. Many European countries are being replaced demographically too.
 
Tams said:
While I agree with you that it was mostly just Trump being Trump, where in that was Haint Haint wrong?

Europe is adverse to any use of force. They'd rather release a sternly worded letter and be sanctimonious and patronising (or rather matronising) than do anything. Sure, an enormous amount of aid has been sent to Ukraine, but for most of Europe it took a while to get going and the US' contribution is still larger despite Russia's invasion not being any immediate concern for them. Many European countries are being replaced demographically too.
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Since you mention demographics: It's especially ironic that Trump, the leader of a country whose young population is already majority non-white, chose to antagonize the one European country, Denmark, that is amongst the most patriotic of the bunch, has had strict migration policies in place for decades and has even, by recent accounts, reversed demographic trends to a degree that is impossible in the US.
 
Haint said:
As I said earlier, had the EU and ME allies even just feigned unified overwhelming offensive support with the US/Israel and launched large scale deployment quasi-training drills as a show of force and bluster after Iran went batshit terrorist, there's a strong possibility they would have quickly negotiated an end to the conflict with deep concessions, would have increased the odds of the slightly less radical and slightly more sensible leadership attempting a coup, or spurned more widespread protests among the populous.
Click to expand...

As mentioned earlier in this thread. No one is asking to join this stupid war because they can read topographic map of Iran, see that they have close to 100mil people and shitload of drones/balistic missiless + whole complexes of underground bunker from which they can fight for years even during land invasion.

Even US didn't want it because US knows this isn't walk in the park. Whatever Israelis have on Trump is has to be completely fucked up. Even Trump isn't that stupid to not know it. His action through this war looks like that of a blackmailed man who need to change reason on the spot because he isn't sovereign in his decision but decisions come from above and he has to dance to that tune.

The only party here that wants this war is Israel and their agents in US pretty much forced it. They have in pocket both parties and now it seems that they have strong blackmail on Trump.

Whatever hawks have in plans for Iran, this will radically change when FPV drone footage of american soldiers begging for mercy will start to pop up in US media/forums etc. It's one thing to start a war, it's other thing to live with consequences of such war.

Finally. US army is not at the level of US army in 90s when Desert Storm was launched. There is not enough marines to invade anything bigger than small nation. To invade iran you have to do mendatory service like in Vietnam. Whoever does that loses next election.
 
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Tams said:
While I agree with you that it was mostly just Trump being Trump, where in that was Haint Haint wrong?
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He disastrously miscalculated how suicidal the EU is though
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it's opposite it would be disastrous if eu got involved.
and to what lengths they will go against their own interests
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what interests? eu interest defend against russia and not get involved whatever trump does.
which it turns out, is defacto supporting a terrorist regime
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false.
Tams said:
Europe is adverse to any use of force. They'd rather release a sternly worded letter and be sanctimonious and patronising (or rather matronising) than do anything.
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there's no single good reason to be dragged into this war. the only good outcome is regime change, that's not going to happen.
Tams said:
Sure, an enormous amount of aid has been sent to Ukraine, but for most of Europe it took a while to get going and the US' contribution is still larger despite Russia's invasion not being any immediate concern for them. Many European countries are being replaced demographically too.
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eu is already surpassed usa with support to Ukraine, now usa supports russia, who are terrorist regime like iran.
 
Please bro just share with us your secret plans to destroy Iran leadership. Please bro, we promise we will not share the plans with the terrorists. We pinky promise
 
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