On the bottom of that circle there is a blue bar that will get smaller the further away from the basket. Hitting inside that blue bar is the same as getting an excellent release in past games. The center bar is Perfect, 100% it will go in no matter what from what I have experienced. When you get perfect the entire bar flashes green. Also spacing, defense pressure and movement play a HUGE role this time. Also, its been stated not every open 3 point is made, just like in real life. Most of them are made, However not all of them are.